Interesting breakdown of success of first round DEs

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takeitdown
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Interesting breakdown of success of first round DEs

Postby takeitdown » Fri Apr 22, 2011 8:19 pm

First round DEs generally don't produce in year 1, obviously. This article looks a bit deeper, and shows under 30% of first round DEs ever put up 10 sacks, only little above 15% ever put up over 10 sacks twice in a career, and DEs are more likely to put up 0 sacks than 10 sacks as a rookie.

http://www.bigcatcountry.com/2011/4/20/ ... e-you-sure

We still need a DE, I just always like these articles, and they help with expectations. It's why getting a FA DE would have been so critical in a normal year.

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Re: Interesting breakdown of success of first round DEs

Postby thescout » Fri Apr 22, 2011 8:55 pm

Very good article. This is what I am finding also in my limited research. These players are drafted more on potential than actual performance.
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Re: Interesting breakdown of success of first round DEs

Postby DaveWaz » Fri Apr 22, 2011 9:14 pm

great, so it looks like we are gonna stick are toes into a pool of crap :snooty: oh well It's the 27th pick. While I'd like to look somewhere other than DE I'd be shocked if we didnt' pic one...... I won't be super upset, but I'd rather see us sign a proven free agent de and draft any other postion or trade down.
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Re: Interesting breakdown of success of first round DEs

Postby Pudge » Sat Apr 23, 2011 12:15 am

Yep, DEs like DTs typically take 3 years before they reach potential. If the Falcons draft a DE this year, he's not going to change much about the team's pass rush in 2011. It's an attempt to solidify the pass rush for 2012 and beyond.

But even still, only about 30-40% of DEs turn to into what most would call good pass rushers that can consistently get 6-8 sacks/yr., let alone double digit sack guys.
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Re: Interesting breakdown of success of first round DEs

Postby takeitdown » Sat Apr 23, 2011 1:58 am

Pudge wrote:Yep, DEs like DTs typically take 3 years before they reach potential. If the Falcons draft a DE this year, he's not going to change much about the team's pass rush in 2011. It's an attempt to solidify the pass rush for 2012 and beyond.

But even still, only about 30-40% of DEs turn to into what most would call good pass rushers that can consistently get 6-8 sacks/yr., let alone double digit sack guys.


This is why I liked the idea of a Charles Johnson in FA, and then a 1st or 2nd rounder if they don't feel like Sidbury's coming along. You get the solid player at LE, AND then the guy who'll hopefully be ready to be an 8 sack guy when Abe leaves.

This offseason's very annoying.

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Re: Interesting breakdown of success of first round DEs

Postby RobertAP » Sat Apr 23, 2011 2:36 am

Well, I've been advocating for other positions all along for the 27th pick. With the 27th pick, we can get good value on the OL, at LB, and at RB. Possibly even TE. The point is, there should be tons of starting quality players, and perhaps even impact players at the 27th pick who are not, "immediate needs." However, this team needs impact players to take the next step. We need impact players on both sides of the ball.

I really hope that we don't approach this draft with the intent to fill our biggest needs. Our biggest needs really aren't that dire. What is dire is our need for impact players.


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