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 Post subject: Who's gonna win the title?
PostPosted: Sun Jan 09, 2011 11:03 am 
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I broke down some of the matchups in this post: viewtopic.php?p=95997#p95997


But who do people think are going to win?

The last several years it's seemingly been a foregone conclusion going into this game that the SEC team was the heavy favorite. But I think at least so far, this is the best chance we'll have to see the SEC titan go down.

Auburn to me just isn't that talented a team. Their success IMHO has largely depended on the notion of: "We have the two best players on the field at a given time (Newton & Fairley), try and stop them."

And obviously that has worked very well. And I do think it can work tomorrow night. But I do think Oregon also has a very sound premise: "We're going to run. And you might be able to keep up for 1, 2, or 3 quarters. But eventually you will run out of gas in the 4th."

In watching the Iron Bowl, I think we saw the secret of stopping NEwton, which is you have to get pressure on him in the backfield. ALabama did that in the first half, but not so much in the 2nd half. I look at Oregon's defense, and I just don't see any Marcel Dareuses out there that can win individual matchups to a degree that they can do that. So I think in order for Oregon to stop/slow Newton, they have to blitz the crap out of him. In the Civil War game vs. Oregon State, the Ducks did a good job getting pressure with delayed blitzes by Casey Matthews. I think they have to roll the dice and do the same here. But the problem is that even if you pressure or hit Newton, he's so big and strong that if you're in a situation where you have to make a tackle one on one, you're screwed.

And I think like Newton, Fairley is a guy that tilts matchups. I think Oregon runs the ball outside the tackles enough to give Auburn's defense fits and keep Fairley from being a major factor there. But those times when they drop back to pass, they could be in trouble. And if Fairley can get enough sacks or force enough fumbles, then those are going to turn into stops.

But the hope for Oregon is that they can wear you down as the game goes on because it's hard to substitute.

This has the makings of a shootout. But I don't think this is going to be a game where either team gets out to a fast start. Both teams are much better second half teams. So it wouldn't surprise me if the score going into halftime is like 14-10. But I think once the 2nd half starts, we'll be in a situation where it's the first one to 40 wins.

But in the end I think Auburn wins because they'll be able to shorten the game on the legs of Newton, and Fairley will be able to create 1 or 2 turnovers to slow down Oregon. But it's a game that I think will come down to the wire.

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 Post subject: Re: Who's gonna win the title?
PostPosted: Sun Jan 09, 2011 12:24 pm 
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Honestly, I haven't watched Oregon much at all so I can't say but the idea that beating Newton through pressure hasn't really worked for the reason you state. One mistake and he is through your secondary like crap through a goose. Teams have done better by sort of shadowing him at scrimmage, i.e., controlled rushes, and making him use his arm. Both teams seem to have tried to wear opponents down and then win in the 4th quarter. AU has had games they started fast and had to hang on and games where they have started slow and had to come back so who knows what we'll see. If they lose, there are already 55 gallon drums full of purple Kool-Aid down at Toomer's Corner and bulldozers poised to push the massive body piles into Jordan-Hare stadium. I read yesterday that ticket prices were the highest ever for any football game in history. Folks were asking $5k. Lots of people "bought" tickets from brokers or with travel packages and the agenices, allegedly, were unable to get the tix. More likely, they realized they could sell them for way more than they did with the packages. They reimbursed folks for the tix bu tthye were still stuck with airline, hotel, etc.

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 Post subject: Re: Who's gonna win the title?
PostPosted: Sun Jan 09, 2011 9:11 pm 
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I just think that in the Iron Bowl in the 1st half, Alabama was successful because they forced Cam to have to make quick decisions with the ball because of the pressure he was seeing from guys like Dareus, coupled with them preventing him from escaping the pocket.

Blitzing Cam is a roll of the dice, but sitting back plays right into Auburn's hands.

I think scheming Newton is the same basic way you scheme against Vick. Blitz him, pressure him, and make him have to be a more cerebral player rather than allow him to let the game come to him and use his athletic gifts.

Auburn is so used to everybody playing on their heels vs. them, that I think if you play more aggressively and try to punch them in the mouth, you can catch them off guard.

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 Post subject: Re: Who's gonna win the title?
PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 3:47 am 
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Why Oregon Ducks should win it allIt's all run, run, run, right? No. Oregon can beat Auburn off the passing game.Email Print Comments41 By Jeff Dooley
ESPN Insider
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Oregon's pass defenders -- Talmadge Jackson III, John Boyett and more -- should be able to slow down Cam Newton and Auburn.


Throughout the season, the Oregon Ducks have met every benchmark in our Eliminator rankings, which draw on the numbers of past champions in key statistical categories to determine which teams most closely resemble past national title winners.



The Auburn Tigers are elite statistically as well -- except for a few key categories in which they are lacking.



These two teams' differences lie almost exclusively in the passing game. Oregon and Auburn are the nation's fourth- and fifth-best rushing teams, respectively, and have done a good job in clamping down on opposing running games, excelling in the yards-per-carry and yards-per-game categories. Because it's hard to find a noticeable difference in the production of these two teams' running games, a look at the passing games could be the key to Monday night's showdown.




Passing offense


Key stats: Passing efficiency; yards per pass attempt



Upon first glance, the Tigers appear to have the overall advantage in the passing game, and that is because of Cameron Newton's dominant statistical performance throwing the football all season long. After all, in the two stat categories that matter most in the passing game, Auburn ranks first in the country (passing efficiency rating and yards per attempt). For all of Newton's heroics in the run game, his passing numbers are perhaps more impressive, and although Oregon and Darron Thomas are no slouches in the passing game, they certainly fall short of the Tigers in the most important areas.



Advantage: Auburn



Passing defense


Key stats: Passing efficiency defense; yards per pass attempt allowed



As we've documented throughout the season, Auburn's pass defense does not live up to its pass offense. For starters, the Tigers give up more than 250 yards per game through the air, ranking 106th in the country. Passing yardage allowed doesn't correlate strongly to success in college football, but it indicates the unit's overall struggles. The team's scoring defense (24.5 points allowed per game) falls well short of past BCS national champions', and opponents' ability to move the ball through the air against Auburn has been a big reason. Auburn ranks 75th in the nation in passer rating allowed, and the Tigers have allowed all the teams at or around Oregon's statistical level to have big games against them in the passing game, from Arkansas to Alabama to Georgia to South Carolina (first meeting). These deficiencies haven't yet been a deal-breaker for the Tigers, with Newton and the offense always coming to the rescue (and the defense seemingly being able to rise to the occasion when it counts -- its defensive numbers in second halves of games have been noticeably better than its first-half numbers), but going against an elite statistical team like the Ducks could be too much to overcome.



The Ducks, meanwhile, have a formidable pass defense, ranking sixth in the nation in pass efficiency D and allowing a stingy 5.7 yards per pass. Granted, Newton will represent the best statistical quarterback the team has faced all season, but even Stanford star Andrew Luck was limited to a 131 QB rating against the Ducks in a two-interception performance.



Advantage: Oregon



Sacks and INTs


Both these stats are strong indicators of success in college football, and the teams excel at getting to the quarterback (Oregon is 18th in the country in sacks per game, Auburn 20th) and avoiding interceptions (the Tigers have tossed only six all season, while the Ducks have thrown seven). Oregon once again breaks away, however, in sacks allowed (fifth in the nation to Auburn's 42nd) and interceptions produced (20, good for sixth in the country, while Auburn is in 76th place with 10). The Ducks' impressive INT ratio helps contribute to their supremacy in another key statistical category, turnover margin. Telling stats: In the Ducks' closest call of the year, against Cal, Oregon produced only one sack and zero interceptions, while Alabama sacked Newton four times in its near upset of the Tigers. Both categories, for both teams, figure to be critical in Monday night's matchup.



Advantage: Oregon



Overall


There is no question that Auburn has been very, very successful -- and highly efficient -- in the passing game this year, combining nicely with its multifaceted and explosive running game. But it will be running into one of the toughest, if not the toughest, defenses it has faced all season, and the Tigers' own deficiencies in pass defense could finally catch up to them against a productive Oregon passing game. Lastly, in the difference-making categories of sacks, interceptions and turnover margin, the Ducks hold a significant advantage. That means that if the teams' evenly matched running games balance each other out, Oregon's overall advantage in the passing game figures to put it in position to grab the win -- and a BCS national title.



Advantage: Oregon

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 Post subject: Re: Who's gonna win the title?
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 3:19 am 
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Well the first half went pretty much like I expected.

Good win for Auburn. Fairley showed up big. And Oregon didn't make the plays they needed to make early in the game.

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 Post subject: Re: Who's gonna win the title?
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 9:30 am 
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somebody's going to have to check on Bnb. here in d/t ATL were snowed in!

congrats, Bruce! :clap:

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 Post subject: Re: Who's gonna win the title?
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 11:50 am 
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Thanks. It was really just halfway icy here. much ado about nothing just one hour and a half south of ATL. You would have sworn you were on Bourbon Street last night at Toomer's Corner. Thousands of people. As a side note, a pit bull tried to start a fight with my Lab in the middle of it all. :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Who's gonna win the title?
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 12:04 pm 
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backnblack wrote:
Thanks. It was really just halfway icy here. much ado about nothing just one hour and a half south of ATL.:

not the case up here. wierd, huh? The South Side of the city is worse off then up north! I live a half a block from the DOT HQ and the Ga Dept of Public Safety...The places that house the snow-machinery. I tried to go to the Krogers this am and it was downright frightening. Looked like Mad Max. The only thing more scary is being trapped for day 3 with the wife and kids in theis house.

Congrats again! Wonder which team in the NFL will get Cam?

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 Post subject: Re: Who's gonna win the title?
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 12:11 pm 
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I don't know. Cam is going to be a bit of a project for whoever does but I think he can be successful. He seems more like the emotionally inspiring type leader than the cool and detached technical type. I was really glad to see some of the other guys shine and show it wasn't a one man team though just having his threat helps everyone. I was screaming for them to put Dyer in earlier in the game. That kid is almost the perfect build fo ran RB--fire hydrant legs stuck on an oak stump body and he can motor. Great balance and keeps churning. Anyway...I can go on and on. Who knows what comes down the road with all the NCAA stuff but it was a great night for us locals.

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