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 Post subject: Hot List NFL Draftcountdown Kerrigan no 1
PostPosted: Sun Nov 21, 2010 6:26 am 
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Looks like someone else has noticed Kerrigan besides Pudge and I. Looks like he passes the Falcon's filter only will he be available and be the bpa on the board.


http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/ ... t-List.php

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 Post subject: Re: Hot List NFL Draftcountdown Kerrigan no 1
PostPosted: Sun Nov 21, 2010 1:23 pm 
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Well I guess it's nice that you're locked in to who you want the Falcons to draft. :hand:

No one mentions that against a top-quality O-line in Wisconsin, Kerrigan was a non-factor, being shut down by a backup sophomore.

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 Post subject: Re: Hot List NFL Draftcountdown Kerrigan no 1
PostPosted: Sun Nov 21, 2010 8:07 pm 
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Pudge wrote:
Well I guess it's nice that you're locked in to who you want the Falcons to draft. :hand:

No one mentions that against a top-quality O-line in Wisconsin, Kerrigan was a non-factor, being shut down by a backup sophomore.


Even the best have their off days. :D

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 Post subject: Re: Hot List NFL Draftcountdown Kerrigan no 1
PostPosted: Mon Nov 22, 2010 1:51 am 
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Yeah, but in the game of scouting, you look at how guys perform against their premium talent when given the opportunity. If Kerrigan had gone up against Carimi and been nullified, then I wouldn't judge him so harshly, since Carimi is a fellow prospect that will likely be a No. 1 pick.

But it was not Carimi he was facing. It was the backup RT, Ricky Wagner. A redshirt sophomore that began the season as a backup until Josh Oglesby got in the 2nd game of the season. Now, 2 years from now Wagner may very well be a top prospect, but he isn't one now. Yet, Kerrigan did nothing against him.

Look I'm not saying Kerrigan is a mediocre prospect because he had 1 mediocre game. But I've seen 3 games now from him now, and I've been looking for that signature moment to make me think that he's more than a late 1st round prospect at best. And while it's no secret that I was very high on Chris Long when he came out a few years ago, I can't deny that he has been very underwhelming as an NFL player. And I'm watching Kerrigan on tape and trying to find something that I can latch on to that makes me think he's going to better than Long has been thus far in his first 2.5 seasons.

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 Post subject: Re: Hot List NFL Draftcountdown Kerrigan no 1
PostPosted: Mon Nov 22, 2010 2:28 am 
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Keep in mind Pudge def end is a premium position and if we go that route in round 1 whose better than Kerrigan. TD's philosphy is to draft the BPA to fill a need so if another player is higher on the board then so be it. Right now we could stand to upgrade off line, receiver, speed back,def end,linebacker and corner.Surely someone will be there come the Falcon's pick that has some potential to do well.Def tackle we seem to have a decent rotation but if a quality prospect came like a Babs type I'd even draft a def tackle. Given TD's balance sheet of what he looks for : blue collar never give up, good tools,work ethic and is a student of the game Kerrigan fits as well as anyone right now. Will he be the pick? Hard to say but I would think he is on the radar.

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 Post subject: Re: Hot List NFL Draftcountdown Kerrigan no 1
PostPosted: Mon Nov 22, 2010 4:36 am 
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More info on Kerrigan from NFL Draftcountdown:

When talking about the NFL Draft, we often get enamored with the phenomenal athletes. Running the fastest 40 time or lifting the most weights at the combine will get you national press and plenty of notice. It is often the highly productive college players who give 110% effort and have a positive impact on their teams who are left behind because they don’t quite fit the athletic freak profile we have come to try and notice. One of the players who seems to be flying under the radar despite stringing together two excellent seasons and being the shining star on a struggling Big Ten team is Purdue’s Ryan Kerrigan. This defensive end dominated opposing offensive linemen in the Big Ten for almost two seasons now.

Kerrigan’s best trait is his undying motor. There may not be a player in the country who puts in as much effort on every play than Kerrigan. As the laziness of NFL defensive linemen such as Albert Haynesworth becomes a major issue, Kerrigan will be the complete opposite. He never gives up on a play or the possibility that he can make a big time impact on any play. His pass rushing repertoire is varied as well. Depending on his opponent in the trench, Kerrigan has used everything from pure power and strength to the refined technique of a swim move to get to a quarterback. He is one of the best at his position to identify potential weaknesses and capitalize on them, an invaluable tool for the NFL. In the games Kerrigan has been stopped, it has been due to double and even triple teams against him at times. With the rest of the Boilermaker defense considered mediocre, Kerrigan has had to overcome adversity to make the type of impact he has. Combine these elements with rock solid intangibles, and you have the makings of a potential impact player at the next level.

Kerrigan has been showing these pure skills over the course of his career at Purdue. Last season, the game where he came onto the scene was a huge 3 sack performance against Ohio State when Purdue took down the Buckeyes 26-18 on Kerrigan’s performance. For the season, Kerrigan ended up with 11.0 sacks, 17.0 TFL, and 65 total tackles, establishing himself as a top Big Ten defensive lineman. This year Kerrigan has not quite received the same press clippings, but he has actually been more productive. With two games left this season, he has hit 11.5 sacks, including a 4 sack performance against the very potent offense of Michigan. Even if Kerrigan doesn’t have the eye-popping workout numbers of others this offseason, he has stepped up on the field and that type of production simply can’t and probably won’t be ignored on Draft Day.

With his production, intangibles, and motor, Kerrigan should be in strong consideration to go in the first round. There is an exceptionally strong defensive line class this year with pass rushers and run stuffers galore which could hurt his stock, but Kerrigan could end up an absolute steal if he goes in the late first or early second round. With midround players such as Austin Collie, Elvis Dumervil, Alterraun Verner, etc, succeeding the NFL based on their motor and effort, Kerrigan has a great chance at success. He even may convert to outside linebacker in a 3-4 to utilize his pass rushing ability to its full potential. Without the height or measureables, some teams will pass not viewing Kerrigan as a home run pass rusher, but they could regret possibly passing on a true leader and an upstanding individual who can become the face

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 Post subject: Re: Hot List NFL Draftcountdown Kerrigan no 1
PostPosted: Mon Nov 22, 2010 5:30 pm 
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No, TD does not draft BPA at a position of need. TD is entirely needs based drafting philosophy. BPA is not a significant factor at all.

And your notion of Kerrigan is one of the best players at a premium positon is the exact same philosophy of why we're stuck with an average propsect like Peria Jerry in Round 1. Now, maybe Jerry turns into a really good player down the road, but I don't think that will be the case, and I didn't think that was the case 2 years ago when we drafted him. He's a complementary player that we used a pick that should have been used on an impact player.

I feel the same as Kerrigan. And I think Kerrigan is a good player, but I don't think he's going to be an impact player, at least not early on in his career. Down the road, he could be a very effective player as his technique gets better and he is more experienced with exploiting the weakness, and then he can develop into an impact player kind of mirroring the career of Aaron Kampman or Kyle Vanden Bosch. I think through the first few years of his career, he'll be a complementary player that can be productive like what a Chris Long has been thus far in his career. I liked Long coming out of Virginia, because he had a very high motor, had an array of pass rush moves and nice technique, and had above average quickness, which is the same as Kerrigan. But the simple truth as I see it is that in order to quickly impact the league as pass rushers like Freeney, Peppers, Mario Williams, and Kearse have done over the past decade or so relies on having exceptional speed (like Freeney & Kearse) and/or a combo of speed and strength (like Peppers & Williams). Kerrigan is not this player, and IMO there isn't a single DE prospect in this class that has such. Long did not have this, and in his case I overestimated what speed/quickness he did have, and thus he's the type of pass rusher that will get better with experience (like Kampman and KVB) because their technique will improve. I think Kerrigan is this exact same player. That he'll be very good to have 4-7 years down the road, but over the first 3 years he is not going to bring a ton to the table. And probably not enough to merit a high 1st round pick.

Is there a better player than Kerrigan? Besides Clayborn, probably not. But he too IMO is going to be a complementary pass rusher as well, although I think Clayborn has a bit more quickness, so I like his chances more. But as far as value goes, I don't think there is a ton of difference between Kerrigan and some of the others DEs that won't go off the board in Round 2 and 3. I think the difference is that Kerrigan is a much safer pick than some of those guys. It would be very surprising if he's a bust.

I agree with you that Kerrigan is likely to be on the Falcons radar. But what the Falcons want and what I want can be and probably will be different. I want an impact player that inside 2 years we're going to be counting on and expecting them to make big plays on a weekly basis. Now whether that player is actually available this off-season, we shall see...

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 Post subject: Re: Hot List NFL Draftcountdown Kerrigan no 1
PostPosted: Mon Nov 22, 2010 7:22 pm 
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Pudge, I think we are saying the same thing in regards to the Falcon's draft. You think we just pick based on need and all I am saying is we pick on need but the BPA. For example if I have a need at receiver and the following players are on the board.

1. D Jackson ratev 9.7
2.Jenkins 7.5
3. Laurent Robinson 6.8
4.Jason Avant 6.0
5. Mike Williams 5.9

Would TD taker anything less than the 9.7 if that player were available? No, he'll take the BPA to fill a need. Now say I have needs DE,Off line, receiver and the board looks like this

1.Dwighy Freeney 10.0
2.Todd Mclure 5.0
3.Mike Jenkins 7.5

Who would TD take. If their all needs then he could take any of them according to your statement. Clearly the BPA to fill a need is Freeney so that is who TD goes with.

I agree Kerrigan will be a complientary player in the NFL and I don't see any potential dominate def ends in this draft. You want a potential all star player in a short time. That is the best case scenario and I agree. Why take a lesser player over someone who can impact the game more that fills a need. If a very linebacker were available come the Falcon's pick over def end,corner,receiver,off line I would take him considering he as more potential than the other positions. Every team needs star players but their hard to find. Role players are much more common and easier to acquire. Right now we have to many role players that are interchangeable and need star players.

I think on offense we have

Roddy, Ryan,Turner and just a notch below Gonzo. Everyone else is a role player.

Defense

Spoon,Babs,Moore and Lofton a shade below. Everyone else is a role player.

Role player meaning complimentary player at this point in their careers or have the potential.Spoon,Moore have the potential to be star players.

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 Post subject: Re: Hot List NFL Draftcountdown Kerrigan no 1
PostPosted: Mon Nov 22, 2010 9:38 pm 
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You're mixing two different conversations.

What the Falcons will do is a different conversation than what the Falcons should do. Your or my opinions in the latter have no bearing on the former.

The Falcons are a need-based team. They identify key needs and identify players that they think will fulfill those needs, and target those specific players at specific points in the draft. And they will draft based on that. Their draft board isn't a list of the Top 150 they like, and then they just go down the list. Instead it's more stratified where they target these 5 or so players in this round, these 10 or so players in this other round.

I've modified my approach to fit that model.

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 Post subject: Re: Hot List NFL Draftcountdown Kerrigan no 1
PostPosted: Fri Nov 26, 2010 2:01 pm 
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All you need for proof that the Falcons draft based on needs is passing up on Dez Bryant for Sean Weatherspoon.

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