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 Post subject: Todd McShay: Mock 1.0
PostPosted: Wed Nov 10, 2010 11:41 pm 
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Originally Published: November 10, 2010
Andrew Luck just above top defenders
Underclassmen and defensive prospects dominate the top of the initial 2011 mock draft

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McShay By Todd McShay
ESPN.com
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No, it's never too early for a mock draft. The 2010 college football season is 10 weeks old and we at Scouts Inc. have had plenty of time to watch film and shuffle our board, so why not take a stab at a first-round projection?

Stanford QB Andrew Luck has established himself as the top prospect on the board and looks like a slam-dunk for the quarterback-starved Buffalo Bills, but after Luck, defensive prospects dominate the top of the board with four defensive linemen and two cornerbacks filling out the next six spots.

The rest of the top 10 features an offensive tackle, another quaterback and the rare early-first-round wide receiver.

Here's how it all shakes out at this very early point in the pre-draft process. Things will change a lot between now and April, but based on what we've seen so far in 2010, this is our best early projection. The order is based on the inverse NFL standings. Ties between teams with the same record are broken using opponents' winning percentage, with teams with the lower percentage getting the earlier pick.


Buffalo Bills

Record: 0-8
Andrew Luck*, QB, Stanford

Luck is the complete package. He would quickly provide Buffalo with the most efficient quarterback play it has seen since the Jim Kelly era.

Carolina Panthers

Record: 1-7
Marcell Dareus*, DT, Alabama

The Panthers once-vaunted defensive front seven is a mess. The good news is that Dareus is one of several defensive linemen worthy of top-20 consideration in this year's draft.

Dallas Cowboys

Record: 1-7
Da'Quan Bowers*, DE, Clemson

Marcus Spears might not be long for Dallas but the Cowboys need to figure out their defensive scheme before locking in their personnel. However, Bowers is a stud and can fit in any defensive scheme. He leads the FBS in sacks and is blessed with a rare combination of size and athleticism.

San Francisco 49ers

Record: 2-6
Patrick Peterson*, CB, LSU

Peterson is the closest thing you will find to a shutdown cover corner in college football. He's also shown remarkable return skills in 2010 in his first year on the job.

Denver Broncos

Record: 2-6
Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska

Denver needs a stud defensive lineman more than it needs a cornerback but Amukamara is more talented than any available prospect who would fit the team's three-man front. Champ Bailey's days with the Broncos could be numbered so bringing in a young talent like Amukamara would make sense.

Cincinnati Bengals

Record: 2-6
Robert Quinn*, DE, North Carolina

Quinn is a naturally gifted pass-rusher with an enormously high ceiling but he will enter the NFL having not played football in more than a year. The Bengals have never shied away from risk, though, so why start now?

Detroit Lions

Record: 2-6
Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa

This might be a bit high for Clayborn, but the top two cornerbacks (Peterson and Amukamara) are off the board and it's never a bad idea to stockpile young talent along the defensive front.

Minnesota Vikings

Record: 3-5
Jake Locker, QB, Washington

Tough call here. Locker's stock is clearly dropping but it will ascend again between now and April. A quarterback with his natural tools, work ethic and competitiveness rarely lasts beyond the top 20 picks. If it's not the Vikings who pull the trigger, the Cardinals and Jaguars are the next two quarterback-needy teams in line.

Arizona Cardinals

Record: 3-5
Nate Solder, OT, Colorado

The Cardinals could be gun shy about spending first-round money on a quarterback so soon after the Matt Leinart debacle. If Luck and Locker are off the board, it would be a no-brainer to look in a different direction. Solder is the most complete talent in a pedestrian group of 2011 offensive line prospects.

Cleveland Browns

Record: 3-5
A.J. Green*, WR, Georgia

The Browns have needs along the defensive front but at this spot they cannot pass up on the most complete wide receiver prospect to enter the NFL draft since Calvin Johnson (Lions).

San Diego Chargers

Record: 4-5
Akeem Ayers*, OLB, UCLA

Ayers is a great fit as an outside linebacker in the Chargers' 3-4 scheme. He's not quite a young Shawne Merriman but he's a talented pass-rusher nonetheless.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Record: 4-4
Ryan Mallett*, QB, Arkansas

Taking Mallett here would be too rich for my blood, but the Jaguars are in dire need of an upgrade at quarterback and Mallett's riffle arm will be pretty tempting.

St. Louis Rams

Record: 4-4
Stephen Paea, D, Oregon State

There is not another receiver worth drafting in the top 25 picks, so the Rams can use this pick to continue rebuilding the defense. Paea's nonstop motor, quickness and power would fit nicely along one of the league's most improved defensive fronts.

Seattle Seahawks

Record: 4-4
Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College

There's no Eric Berry- or Earl Thomas-like safety prospect in the 2011 class, so the Seahawks might need to settle for one of the top offensive linemen. Castonzo is a good athlete for a player with his long frame and he continues to add bulk and strength.

Washington Redskins

Record: 4-4
Janoris Jenkins*, CB, Florida

There's no wide receiver or quarterback worth drafting at this spot. Running back is another need area, but do not expect a Mike Shanahan-coached squad to use a first-round pick on one. Jenkins is the most underrated defensive back in the 2011 draft and his smooth cover skills and ball-hawking ability would be welcome additions to the Redskins' secondary.

Houston Texans

Record: 4-4
Allen Bailey, DE, Miami

It's entirely too early to press the panic button on 2010 first-round CB Kareem Jackson, but the Texans still wouldn't mind seeing Jenkins fall this far. With him off the board, why not take the best available talent on the board? Bailey's versatility and interior pass-rushing skills could help Houston's underachieving defensive line finally turn the corner.

Miami Dolphins

Record: 4-4
Mark Ingram*, RB, Alabama

It's never easy pulling the trigger on a running back in Round 1, but given Ronnie Brown's struggles and Ricky Williams' age -- and the fact that both hit free agency after this season -- the Dolphins would have to consider Ingram in this scenario.

New England Patriots (via 5-4 Oakland)

Record: 6-2
Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue

Kerrigan is probably higher on our board than on most others, but very few players with his toughness, pass-rushing savvy, nonstop motor and passion for the game fail to contribute in the NFL. Something tells us coach Bill Belichick would find a place for him to fit.

Chicago Bears

Record: 5-3
Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin

Julio Jones might be the popular pick here, but it's too early to draft a second-tier wide receiver prospect. The Bears would be better served to draft a right tackle who can help keep QB Jay Cutler upright.

Kansas City Chiefs

Record: 5-3
Jeremy Beal, OLB, Oklahoma

The Chiefs need a legitimate edge rusher and Beal has the type of size and versatility that they look for in an outside linebacker.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Record:5-3
Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M

Miller has a freakish combination of size, speed and athletic ability. Strongside linebacker in a 4-3 defense could be the right fit for him. Regardless, Miller can get after the quarterback and the Bucs are in the market for that exact skill.

Tennessee Titans

Record: 5-3
Aaron Williams*, CB, Texas

Williams is one of many talented underclass cornerbacks who could be jockeying for position in the bottom half of the first round. His instincts in coverage and his experience playing both inside and outside will only help his cause.

Philadelphia Eagles

Record: 5-3
Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State

Sherrod is a big and strong right tackle prospect who could also move inside to guard in the NFL. His feet and consistency in pass pro are still works in progress.

Indianapolis Colts

Record: 5-3
Nick Fairley*, DT, Auburn

No player in the country has improved his stock more this season than Fairley. He is a bit light in the lower body but that doesn't bother the Colts, who are far more focused on his explosive first step and relentlessness as a pass-rusher.

Green Bay Packers**

Record: 6-3
Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State

Some teams view Heyward as a good fit at the five-technique in a three-man front. Others think he's best suited to play a three-technique for a Tampa 2 style defense. He has the natural ability to warrant Round 1 consideration but it will be interesting to see which team likes him enough in their scheme to pull the trigger.

New Orleans Saints**

Record: 6-3
Drake Nevis, DT, LSU

Nevis struggles to get off of blocks, which ultimately could prevent him from being a first-round pick. However, few defensive tackles in the country have his first-step quickness and ability to disrupt plays in the opposing backfield.

New York Giants

Record: 6-2
Demarcus Love, OT, Arkansas

The Giants are looking for the toughest, most NFL-ready offensive lineman available at their spot and Love fits the description.

New England Patrtiots

Record: 6-2
Cameron Jordan, DE, California

Jordan is a perfect fit as a five-technique in a three-man front and has experience playing that role. He's not as quick as former college teammate Tyson Alualu, but Jordan is a good athlete for his size and he can anchor versus the run.

New York Jets

Record: 6-2
Julio Jones*, WR, Alabama

Receiver is not a top priority at the moment, but Braylon Edwards, Santonio Holmes and Brad Smith are all free agents after this season. Providing QB Mark Sanchez with a young weapon like Jones would be a difficult decision to dispute.

Baltimore Ravens

Record: 6-2
Rahim Moore*, S, UCLA

If Moore elects to leave school early, he could be the top safety off the board. While he's not an elite talent like Berry or Thomas, Moore does have excellent range and ball skills in deep-zone coverage. The time has come for the Ravens to plan for life after Ed Reed.

Atlanta Falcons

Record: 6-2
Brandon Burton, CB, Utah

Burton is an under-the-radar cover corner who is rumored to be eyeing the 2011 NFL draft. Burton will be competing with the likes of Williams, Virginia's Ras-I Dowling, Miami's Brandon Harris and Texas' Curtis Brown for a few spots near the bottom of the first round.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Record: 6-2
Mike Pouncey, G, Florida

The Pouncey twins won a national title together at Florida, so who says they can't win a Super Bowl together in Pittsburgh? Mike has a similar skill set to that of his brother Maurkice, a 2010 first-rounder who is currently the starting center for the Steelers.

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 Post subject: Re: Todd McShay: Mock 1.0
PostPosted: Thu Nov 11, 2010 2:15 am 
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I was just gonna post this. I don't think we need to go CB in the first round this year. I kinda want a RB with speed. A healthy Jerious Norwood if possible :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Todd McShay: Mock 1.0
PostPosted: Thu Nov 11, 2010 12:45 pm 
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I would happily go CB in Round 1. Not sure if Burton is the right choice...

If the Falcons are going to use a #1 pick on a RB, it better NOT be a speed back. That would be a wasted pick. If they are going to draft a RB that high, it better be for Turner's replacement. John Clay would work.

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 Post subject: Re: Todd McShay: Mock 1.0
PostPosted: Thu Nov 11, 2010 2:52 pm 
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How about Ingram if he's around? He'd be perfect.

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 Post subject: Re: Todd McShay: Mock 1.0
PostPosted: Thu Nov 11, 2010 5:01 pm 
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Yeah, Ingram works too. But if he's around at that point in the draft, it's likely because there are some serious injury concerns with him, assuming of course the Falcons aren't picking before pick #25 or so. 8-)

It's all about value. A speed back unless he's particularly very good isn't as valuable in our offense. Our OC doesn't like a two-headed backfield, and will give more carries to the more durable person. So another back like Norwood only really has 3rd/4th round value.

If the Falcons use a 1st/2nd round pick on a RB, it better be a guy that can carry the rock 25+ times and potentially surpass Turner as the starter by his 2nd season.

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 Post subject: Re: Todd McShay: Mock 1.0
PostPosted: Fri Nov 12, 2010 4:29 pm 
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don't you guys think getting a RB similar too Snelling and Turner would be overkill? I think it may be more beneficial to get a RB that brings something new to the table.


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 Post subject: Re: Todd McShay: Mock 1.0
PostPosted: Fri Nov 12, 2010 5:30 pm 
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Overkill? No.

I used to be a big Norwood fan, but I've realized several things in the past two seasons:

1) His vision is poor and his lateral burst stinks
2) His durability stinks
3) He is only a good fit in a zone-blocking scheme

To the point that if we went out and got a player that was no better than Norwood, I would not be happy at all. I'm not opposed to drafting a speed back. But give me a guy with upside. Give me someone that can take 15+ carries on a week to week basis. Give me someone that vision and lateral burst. Give me someone that can work in a man blocking scheme just as much as he does in a zone blocking one.

Now if there is a speed back that has those things, then I'd be all for drafting him. But if his only asset is that he's fast, then I'll pass. I'd draft a thousand more Jason Snellings before I drafted another Jerious Norwood, because Snelling is a player that actually gets better every year, while the other does not.

I'm one of those people that thinks that Turner doesn't have a lifetime left. I think we have this year, and probably next year, and that's about it. I like Snelling, but at this point I don't see him as being a 300-carry back that this offense needs to be successful. So I would be a fan of drafting that guy even if it meant stashing him on the bench for a year or two.

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 Post subject: Re: Todd McShay: Mock 1.0
PostPosted: Fri Nov 12, 2010 6:03 pm 
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Pudge wrote:
Overkill? No.

I used to be a big Norwood fan, but I've realized several things in the past two seasons:

1) His vision is poor and his lateral burst stinks
2) His durability stinks
3) He is only a good fit in a zone-blocking scheme


I'm not for Norwood I don't want you to think I am. However, I think a speed back would add a weapon to our arsenal.


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 Post subject: Re: Todd McShay: Mock 1.0
PostPosted: Fri Nov 12, 2010 9:32 pm 
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Thanks for posting this mock Pudge. What your saying is you would take a speed back with durability and as potential. I agree although I'm not against a speed back in the middle rounds if that is all he is. As usual we draft the best value to fill a need. We have alot of needs still (def end, no1 corner,linebacker,off line,receiver, groom a no1 tight end). I like Grimes but not enough to think he'll be another Revis shitting taller players down.

It's still a crap shoot when you draft 25-30 which is where I predict will be.

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 Post subject: Re: Todd McShay: Mock 1.0
PostPosted: Sat Nov 13, 2010 3:15 pm 
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I am really not a fan of drafting RB's early, unless its a big need and a prospect like Adrian Peterson or Mark Ingram was on the board.

I think we need to go after a LT or DE with our 1st rounder. Although I would not be upset with a CB or LB if they are BPA.

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 Post subject: Re: Todd McShay: Mock 1.0
PostPosted: Sat Nov 13, 2010 4:37 pm 
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As discussed in another thread, I'm all for drafting an Ahmad Bradshaw type. Someone that has the vision and quickness that he can run well behind any blocking scheme, and has the build and compact frame (5-9/200) that despite not being very big, he can take a bit of punishment. I'll even take a Fred Jackson/Darren McFadden with that longer frame (6-1/215) that has explosive speed, and while they aren't going to be able to carry the ball 20-30 times every week, at least you're not concerned about them limping off the field on their 9th carry (like it is with Norwood).

And while having a Jamaal Charles/Felix Jones-type sounds really awesome on the surface, if that guy is forced to be the feature back for a few weeks due to injury, how good is he really going to be if we can't run the off-tackles and counters like we want to because he's only really good at the sweeps, stretches, and draw plays? How much does it take away from our O-line's ability to wear down the defense? Eliminate the play-action? How many times are we going to be stuck in 2nd & 12 situations instead of 2nd & 7 because this guy is looking to bounce it outside looking for the big run instead of just taking the 3 yards and helping us move the chains?

Sure, that 54-yard run that he busts sounds great, but is it really worth all the other potential headaches he creates. The guy that can consistently get 3-5 yards between the tackles is going to be much more valuable in our offense than the guy that can bust a TD every once in a while, but be just as prone to lose 2 or 3 yards.

As far as Norwood goes, I say good riddance.

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 Post subject: Re: Todd McShay: Mock 1.0
PostPosted: Sun Nov 14, 2010 12:41 pm 
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I already know who I want for Turner's replacement, but he comes out next year- Trent Richardson. Dimitroff might have to make one of those NE trades for a 1st next year to get him :lol:

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