|
Moneyball is all about giving guys credit for making things happen. We think offensively, moving the chains is the most important thing besides scoring touchdowns. Defensively, keeping other teams from scoring and moving the chains is the goal. Over the course of the season, some players will contribute more than others in those regards.
The scoring system is simple. For every time you do good, you earn a little bit of money. Every time you do bad, you lose money. The scoring system isn't perfect and just because a guy "earns" no dollars in a given week or his net earnings are -$1 doesn't mean he had a bad game. Generally speaking, quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and defensive linemen will score highly, while offensive linemen, specialists, and defensive backs won't score that much. It's really the nature of the beast.
PASSING
1st Down Completion..........$1
3rd Down Conversion..........$1
20+ yard completion..........$1
40+ yard completion..........$2
Touchdown..........$2
Poor Throw..........-$1
Interception..........-$1
Sacked..........-$1
Our scoring system gives quarterbacks the highest scores, which we think is the way it should be. It's mostly about moving the chains. Getting plays downfield also get a bonus.
What exactly is a poor throw will be a pretty liberal outlook. Pretty much any incompletion that didn't result because of a dropped pass, throw away, or is broken up by the defender will be a considered a poor throw. We'll take away for sacks when it's the quarterback's fault. Like when he holds onto the ball too long.
RUSHING
5+ yard attempt..........$1
3rd Down Conversion..........$1
First Down..........$1
5+ yard after contact..........$1
20+ yard attempt..........$2
Touchdown..........$2
Initially we were only giving credit for gains of 10 or more yards, which certainly do move the chains. But we also figured that a guy that can consistently pick up 6 or 7 yards really helps his team a lot because it gives them short yardage situations on third down. The league average was 4.2 yards per carry, and generally speaking 4 yards on a carry is considered. We went with five simply because it's a pretty round number and doesn't seem as arbitrary as 6 or 7 yards.
Gauging what is contact is pretty subjective. But we think it's when a defender hits a ballcarrier squarely, not just a guy breaking a arm or shoestring tackles. But generally speaking, we'll say if the guy is hit hard enough that he probably could/should go down, and then manages to give five or more yards after that, then he should get credit.
RECEIVING
1st Down Reception..........$1
3rd Down Conversion..........$1
20+ yard Reception..........$1
10+ yards after catch..........$1
5+ yards after contact..........$1
40+ yard Reception..........$2
Touchdown..........$2
Dropped Pass..........-$1
Moving the chains is most important factor we're considering here. BUt getting big plays downfield also help. We think getting yards after catch are good as well. Last year, Anquan Boldin was among the best in the league after the catch and averaged around 6 or 7 yards per reception, so we simply chose 10 yards because it's a nice round number above that. We also give receivers credit for yards after contact like runners, but will only count when contact is initiated after the receiver secures the catch. For example, if a defender is draped all over the guy and makes contact trying to defend the pass, but the receiver goes on to run for 6 yards after the catch, that won't count. But if the receiver catches the ball, turns upfield, breaks a tackle and then runs for another 6 yards, then he'll get credit.
Dropped passes will only be counted on passes that aren't considered poorly thrown from the quarterback. Many will count it as a drop if the receiver gets a hand (or both) on the ball, and we think that for the most part that is the right way to handle it. But we're not going to penalize a guy if it's thrown behind him.
BLOCKING
Key Block (Run 10+ yds)..........$1
Key Block (Catch 20+ yds)..........$1
Key Block (1st Down)..........$1
Key Block (3rd Down Conv.)..........$1
Key Block (Touchdown)..........$1
Key Block (Pass Protection)..........$1
No Sacks Allowed..........$1
No QB Pressures Allowed..........$1
Sacks Allowed..........-$1
Missed Block..........-$1
Unfortunately, there aren't very many stats that are attributed to blockers. Sacks allowed are difficult to give credit for, but are about the only thing you can find out about blockers. Let's get some positives going, and that's where key blocks come in. Usually on a big gain, there is usually one block that springs the runner or receiver. If multiple blockers block the same guy, they'll split credit.
As for sacks vs. pressures, we institute the same rules we do for defense (more on that later). But unlike the league, not every sack is considered a pressure (again more on that later). So it'll be possible for a blocker to give up a sack, but also get credit for allowing zero pressures in the game.
A missed block with be if the ballcarrier is hit at or before the line of scrimmage, and who was the responsible party.
DEFENSE
Tackle for Loss..........$1
Tackle on 3rd Down..........$1
Sack..........$1
QB Pressure..........$1
QB Hit..........$1
Pass Defended..........$1
Interception..........$1
Fumble Forced..........$1
Fumble Recovery..........$1
Pass Defended on 3rd Down..........$2
Blown Coverage (3rd Down/20+ Catch)..........-$1
Blown Coverage for TD..........-$2
Missed Tackle for 1st Down..........-$1
Missed Tackle for TD..........-$2
Defensively, we're really looking at big plays. Unfortunately, a flaw in this scoring system is that defensive linemen generally score high and defensive backs score low. The truth is that it would be difficult to score how good in coverage a defensive back plays without viewing coach's tape. And in coverage, the only real big plays you can make is an interception or breaking up a pass.
Also a sack by the league's standards is not a sack by our standards. We think a sack should be tackling the quarterback while he's in the process of passing. For example, if a defender strips the quarterback in the pocket, he gets credit for a sack. If a passer is flushed out of the pocket and tucks it and runs, but is tackled before reaching the line of scrimmage, the defender gets credit for a sack. Instead in those instances, we're crediting guys with hits on the QB, along with a forced fumble and tackle for loss, respectively. For hits, we're not really counting times when a quarterback throws a pass and then is hit by a defender afterwards. In instances where releasing the ball and getting rocked are simultaneous, and it clearly disrupts the pass, we might make an exception. Also the league gives credit for half sacks as well. Usually we'll give credit for the guy that actually brings the quarterback down with the sack, and any other part as getting a hit.
For pressures, we only count them when the QB is under obvious duress and it causes an incomplete pass. You can flush the QB out of the pocket, but if he manages to complete the pass, you shouldn't get credit for it.
Generally we thinking making stops on third down are bonuses, because it gives the offense the ball back. Also we'll give credit for stops on fourth downs as well if teams choose to go for the conversion.
KICKING
FG Made (under 50)..........$1
Kickoff Touchback..........$1
FG Made (50+)..........$2
PAT Missed..........-$1
FG Missed (under 45)..........-$1
FG Missed (under 35)..........-$2
There isn't a whole lot of explanation needed here. We do think that missing anything less than 35 yards is missing a chip shot, and such short field goals are considered so automatic, that missing one often changes the course of a game. While making a 47-yard field goal probably isn't good enough to merit earning an extra dollar, we also think that a kicker shouldn't be overly penalized for missing it.
PUNTING
Inside 10 yard..........$1
Fair Catch inside 20..........$1
Inside 5 yard..........$2
Touchback..........-$1
Blocked..........-$1
The NFL tracks how many kicks are placed inside the 20-yard line, but for whatever reason, I don't go too ga ga when a punter pins a team to their 18-yard line. It just doesn't seem as great as when he does so at their 8 yard line. So money is earned for putting teams deep inside their own territory, so it's inside the 10 instead of the 20. But also forcing fair catches is also good because there's no potential for a return, but we'll give the 18-yard line some love by saying that forcing a fair catch inside the 20 (i.e. no return) is a good thing. Touchbacks are bad in punts rather than kickoffs because it gives the team 20 yards to start with. Blocked punts are also bad because they almost always are turnovers and momentum swings. That probably should be worth minus $2, it's usually not the punter's fault when it's blocked because usually someone missed a block, so we'll only subtract $1.
RETURNS
Punt Return (20+ yds)..........$1
Kickoff Return (35+ yds)..........$1
Touchdown..........$2
Generally speaking, averaging ten yards on a punt return and twenty-five yards on kickoffs is considered good. So in both cases, we simply added ten more yards to indicate what should be considered a particularly really good return.
OTHER SPECIAL TEAMS
PR Tackle (under 5 yds)..........$1
KOR Tackle (under 20 yds)..........$1
Blocked Kick..........$1
Onside Recovery..........$1
Bad Snap..........-$1
Botched Hold..........-$1
We think punt coverage should also be rewarded since they can give a big boost to your special teams. But not all special teams tackles are created the same. Considering above what we consider to be good returns for both punts and kickoffs, we just subtracted five yards to indicate a good stop on special teams.
GENERAL PENALTIES
Fumble..........-$1
Fumble Lost..........-$2
Penalty (under 15 yds)..........-$1
Penalty (over 15 yds)..........-$2
Originally we were going to count all fumbles as negatives, but we considered that if a guy coughs it up after he initially got a turnover, then we don't think it should negate it. That allows a situation where Brian Williams fumbles out of bounds in Week 1 after his fumble recovery and return is not negated. Fumbles aren't good, and while even if a team doesn't lose possession, they can slow momentum or swing it. Penalties are bad, but we figured getting anything above 15-yards (personal fouls, etc.) are especially bad. In some cases, referees may indicate the wrong player for a penalty, and in those cases we will attribute it to the correct player. But we're not going to discount bad calls.
PLAYING TIME
Playing in a Game..........$1
Playing 30+ snaps in a Game..........$2
For suiting up and getting on the field at all, guys will earn a little bit of money. But we think credit should be given for the guys that play a lot more. We don't think starting alone is enough, because that's only indicative of who is on the field the first play of the game. Snaps are only counted on offense and regular defense, not special teams. Thirty snaps is relatively arbitrary, but we figure that a given game has between 60-75 plays per each team, and we figure that getting in on roughly half of those snaps indicates that the guy is contributing.
I stop counting once a player reaches thirty snaps, so exactly how many snaps a guy has each game I don't know the answer to. And if a guy by our count gets up to 28 or 29 snaps, we'll give them the benefit of the doubt simply because we could easily make a mistake.
_________________
"Vincere scis, Hannibal, victoria uti nescis" -- Maharbal, 216 B.C.E.
|
