Projecting the 2009 Compensatory Picks

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BirdBrain
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Projecting the 2009 Compensatory Picks

Postby BirdBrain » Sat Mar 14, 2009 12:12 am

The mysterious AdamJT13 is back with his annual analysis on compensatory picks.

The NFL distributes these extra choices during its spring meetings (scheduled for March 22-25 this year). The leauge uses a complicated formula to award picks to teams as compensation for the free agents they lost in the previous year. Note: Teams cannot trade compensatory picks.

AdamJT13 has figured out the formula well enough to provide largely accurate projections. I have used his projections to show how many total picks each NFC West team might have in the 2009 draft.

The asterisks reflect totals affected by AdamJT13's projections. He expects the 49ers to gain one choice in each of the fifth and sixth rounds. He expects the Seahawks to gain four seventh-round choices. He expects the Cardinals to gain on seventh-round choice.

I know NFL executives who say they can accurately forecast the rounds for all compensatory picks. AdamJT13 comes closer than anyone I've seen outside an NFL organization -- assuming he does not work for an NFL team. His identity remains unknown to me and others.

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/nfcwest/0-8- ... oices.html


http://forums.kffl.com/showthread.php?t=247418


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Re: Projecting the 2009 Compensatory Picks

Postby Pudge » Sat Mar 14, 2009 7:49 pm

So no compensatory picks this year? Not that surprising. We should make up for it nicely next year.
"Vincere scis, Hannibal, victoria uti nescis" -- Maharbal, 216 B.C.E.

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Re: Projecting the 2009 Compensatory Picks

Postby Pudge » Wed Mar 25, 2009 2:35 pm

Following up with the official list out on MOnday, this guy once again was very accurate.

Matched the right team in the right round on over 81% of his selections. And got the order right (although not necessarily the right round) for 75% of the picks.
"Vincere scis, Hannibal, victoria uti nescis" -- Maharbal, 216 B.C.E.

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Re: Projecting the 2009 Compensatory Picks

Postby Pudge » Wed Apr 01, 2009 8:21 am

His % would have been higher had he known the rule that meant the Steelers couldn't get more than a 5th for Faneca.

http://www.profootballtalk.com/2009/03/ ... h-rounder/
"Vincere scis, Hannibal, victoria uti nescis" -- Maharbal, 216 B.C.E.

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Re: Projecting the 2009 Compensatory Picks

Postby starley657 » Wed Apr 01, 2009 5:22 pm

Which is also a rule which means we will get a bunch of 5th round picks next year and not 3rd because of Brooking, Milloy, and the rest of the guys' ages.

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Re: Projecting the 2009 Compensatory Picks

Postby Pudge » Wed Apr 01, 2009 10:20 pm

Well we weren't going to get a 3rd anyway. It's determined by your salary.

As you can tell from what he posted and what actually occurred, but the Chargers only got a 4th round pick for Michael Turner.

We don't know exactly what contract Brooking signed in Dallas. It was reported as a 3-yr. $6 million deal. But NFLPA website shows that it's a 5-yr. deal with at least $10.5 million in base salary. Even if he got a $6 million signing bonus (which I highly doubt), making his contract average a bit more than $3M/yr., based off last year's signings that would only be a 6th round pick.

However we could potentially get a 4th for Boley and a 3rd for Foxworth, and potentially a 7th for Grady Jackson.

Although signing Peterson could potentially cancel out the Boley signing, or at least the Jackson or Brooking signing.

From the info I could gather, here are the Top 40 or so FA moves this off-season of players moving to new teams. Some of these moves will cancel each other out, and obviously some of my numbers could be off, but this is an idea of what we could be looking at:

1 Albert Haynesworth Redskins ($14,285,714)
2 T.J. Houshmandzadeh Seahawks ($8,000,000)
3 Bart Scott Jets ($8,000,000)
4 Jason Brown Rams ($7,500,000)
5 Lavaranues Coles Bengals ($7,000,000)
6 Antonio Smith Texans ($7,000,000)
7 Stacy Andrews Eagles ($7,000,000)
8 Chris Canty Giants ($7,000,000)
9 Domonique Foxworth Ravens ($6,800,000)
10 Terrell Owens Bills ($6,500,000)
11 Jake Grove Dolphins ($5,900,000)
12 Jabari Greer Saints ($5,750,000)
13 Gibril Wilson Dolphins ($5,500,000)
14 Derrick Dockery Redskins ($5,300,000)
15 Michael Boley Giants ($5,000,000)
16 Igor Olshansky Cowboys ($4,500,000)
17 Nate Washington Titans ($4,500,000)
18 Shawn Springs Patriots ($4,333,333)
19 Colin Cole Seahawks ($4,280,000)
20 Phil Buchanon Lions ($4,250,000)
21 Derrick Ward Buccaneers ($4,250,000)
22 Andre Goodman Broncos ($4,080,000)
23 Rocky Bernard Giants ($4,000,000)
24 Jovan Haye Titans ($4,000,000)
25 Brian Dawkins Broncos ($3,400,000)
26 Drayton Florence Bills ($3,300,000)
27 Brandon Jones 49ers ($3,300,000)
28 Dan Orlovsky Texans ($3,050,000)
29 Bryant Johnson Lions ($3,000,000)
30 Sage Rosenfels Vikings ($3,000,000)
31 Matt Birk Ravens ($3,000,000)
32 Chris Baker Patriots ($2,880,000)
33 Frank Omiyale Bears ($2,875,000)
34 Grady Jackson Lions ($2,666,667)
35 Ron Fields Broncos ($2,500,000)
36 Fred Taylor Patriots ($2,500,000)
37 Jabar Gaffney Broncos ($2,500,000)
38 Robert Royal Browns ($2,500,000)
39 Renaldo Hill Broncos ($2,500,000)
40 J.J. Arrington Broncos ($2,500,000)
"Vincere scis, Hannibal, victoria uti nescis" -- Maharbal, 216 B.C.E.

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Re: Projecting the 2009 Compensatory Picks

Postby Macho1 » Sat Apr 04, 2009 1:05 pm

I'm just curious. I know we'll trade Vick but if he were just allowed to leave what would the compensatory pick be ? If any ?

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Re: Projecting the 2009 Compensatory Picks

Postby BirdBrain » Sat Apr 04, 2009 1:37 pm

Macho1 wrote:I'm just curious. I know we'll trade Vick but if he were just allowed to leave what would the compensatory pick be ? If any ?


We won't trade Vick. No one wants to give up anything for a player who will be on the street anyway. He is toxic. When we do release him, we won't be compensated. Because he was released.


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Pudge
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Re: Projecting the 2009 Compensatory Picks

Postby Pudge » Sat Apr 04, 2009 2:34 pm

You are only compensated for unrestricted free agents.
"Vincere scis, Hannibal, victoria uti nescis" -- Maharbal, 216 B.C.E.


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