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 Post subject: Do you really think the Falcon's can win a Super Bowl 2006!
PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2005 8:55 pm 
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I have been debating this with Roosters on the other board they can't seem to undeerstand that winning a championship is going to take balance and a qulaity defense.My question this year do you think the falcon's can win a super bowl? I am getting tired of the happy go lucky fans that say yeah why are you being negative we are 5-2.Yeah,believe me I unbderstand I am happy being 5-2 but I also look at the big pitcure to win a super bowl and be a dynasty when other teams look at the falcon's like the patriots.Here are some comments that I think about the team:

1.Its great having the top running game and seeing that teams can't handle it.However can the falcon's run through playoff teams who will stack there defenses and shut the falcon's down and then whne the falcons throw they will back off and play great pass defense? Beating below average,average and above average teams is great but when it counts in the playoffs will the Falcon's be ready?
2.Only 3 QBs in history who ran for over 300 yds in a season have made it to super bowls.I know vick is special but the theory hold true until vick wins and gets to the super bowl.
3.Pudge did an anaylsis dating back to 1994 and I believe around 97% of teams that won a super bowl had a pass ratio of 45-50% and the rest running the ball.another history lesson.
4.The defense is not playing as well as last year can they play great defense when it matters if the offense stalls since it can't pass consistently?
5.Mora and the falcons seem to be blind to the fact that the passing game and strong defense will get the falcon's to the super bowl and perhaps win.They are being blinded since the running game leads the league and we can win in the reg season with it.The same thing happened last year until we met the eagles and this year I expect the eagles to face the falcon's with trotter.Trotter makes a world of difference and they also have a good pass defense.I am sure Mcnabb will be on target more than the first game of the season.The pass defense is still bad and I just hope we have home field advantage .Also remember the falcon's only beat the eagles by 4 points putting up a mighty 14 points on a defense without trotter.

Once again,I am glad to be 5-2 but I want to win championships and I think mora and the falcon's are being blinded by winning.It may take a playoff loss to finally change there tune that a balanced attack and strong defense will win championships not a one dimensional team.Also why does it take a vick injury for him realize that he should pass? That is just plain stupid Vick.If he thinks about it his importance to the team that he plays all the time is more critical than a few extra yards running.His health is essential although Schaub is capble.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2005 9:31 pm 
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can we make it that far playing the way be have the last two games...no, I'm not even sure that sort of play will get us past a playoff game even if we make it that far...that said I think that if Vick can acheive mediocrity passing the ball and not throw a lot of int's then we can do it...Trent Dilfer won a sb...granted our defense isn't nearly that good but if Vick can jsut be reliable and sold not spectacular but solid throwing the ball then our offense will be much better than thiers was...

I think it's a possibility that we could go and win the SB but Vick will have to step it up some...


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2005 10:14 pm 
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Win a Super Bowl? Sure. The Bucs did it with one of the sorriest offenses you will ever see, and only because they had Sapp, Brooks, Lynch & co. Become a dynasty? Not if our receivers can't catch Vick's passes...and if benching Dez White & cutting Peerless didn't get these guys catching the ball nothing will short of a miracle.


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 Post subject: You have to consider the type of defense!
PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2005 11:43 pm 
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I don't think the Falcon defense even comes close to the Bucs 2002 or Ravens defense which is why I bring these issues up.I don't get scared when you see the falcon defense.The Falcon pass defense will get lit up if we can't get a rush on and against good offensive lines it has happened.The run defense has we have seen can look bad at times.Fix the defense learn to pass and we have a good shot but other than that I don't think we are capable of a Super Bowl win this year.The Colts or patriots on a neautral field could have a field day if we make it.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 26, 2005 4:32 am 
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Well we're #6 in the league in scoring so we don't really need to have a scary defense, they just need to make some big plays.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 26, 2005 11:50 am 
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Right now, I don't think the Falcons are capable of winning a Super Bowl. They have too many issues on defense. Not that the defense is bad (they are just underachieving at the moment). If they were healthier, particularly in the secondary, I think you would see much improvement out of this unit. But I believe the team is missing both Kevin Mathis and Chris Cash much more than probably most people think a team should miss a nickle corner. I think if we can get both players back, add a young capable corner in the draf to be the #5 guy next year (so we don't ever have to play Rossum on defense again), get Hartwell and Beck back, add another pass rusher on the edge to help that rotation, and bolster the middle with another widebody, and hopefully add a run-stuffing safety, we will see vast improvement in our defense. Now, that' s a lot of things to do in one off-season, so it might not all get down within a year, but by 2007 I suspect it will be done.

We are always going to eb a running team, with this offensive line, QB, and tehse RBs. Only if we got a Chad Johnson/T.O.-caliber receiver, lost Dunn, the defense played like it did vs. NE for 16 games instead of 2 or 3, and Vick made huge leaps as a pocket passer would be the only things that would make us into a passing team anytime soon.

I think offensively, in order to get the offense going we need a reliable veteran receiver that is capable of making big plays. But that's only going to happen if:

1. We get really lucky in the draft and a great player falls (the "Chad Johnson" option)
2. We give up a 1st round pick or more for an already established veteran, or pay an arm and a leg for a receiver in FA (the "Peerless Price" option)
3. Jenkins and/or Roddy make huge strides in the next year or two (the "Santana Moss" option)

All are just as unlikely as the next IMO.

Well, the stats I posted before indicated that 91% of the time (since 1994), the team that was the most balanced on offense won to the Super Bowl. It didn't mean that the team with the most balanced offense went to the Super Bowl, but once they got there, it helped to be the more balanced of the two.

Right now, there are a number of teams that are lessed balanced than the Falcons, and 4 of them are in the AFC. So saying that if the Falcons went on to the Super Bowl, they'd have a 90% chance of beating them (at this point in the season):

Falcons - run the ball 58% of the time

Opponents:

Steelers - run the ball 61.6% of the time
Patriots - pass the ball 61.7% of the time
Titans - pass the bal 59.1% of the time
Browns - pass the ball 59.7% of the time

I'm just going to say that the Falcons aren't ready for the Super Bowl this year. But I think we are capable of getting there within a year or two. I think our window of opportunity really is in the next 2-3 years. A pretty small window. Saying that if we don't get there by the end of 2008, it's doubtful we'll ever get there, without overhauling the team and starting over.

But a more balanced offense are probably necessary for us to get there, and that means we need to start throwing the football better.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 26, 2005 12:47 pm 
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The Bucs and Ravens defenses when they won the Super Bowl were the best in the league period. The Falcons aren't even in the Top 10 in most categories.

02 Bucs Defense (all cats are "allowed")
Yards Per Game: 1st (252.8)
Rush Yards Per Game: 5th (97.1)
Pass Yards Per Game: 1st (155.6)
Points: 1st (12.3)
Sacks: T-6th (43)
Interceptions: 1st (31)
Passes Defensed: T-5th (102)
Forced Fumbles: 12th (15)
Scoring Defense: 1st

05 Falcons Defense
Yards Per Game: 23rd (338.3)
Rush Yards Per Game: 22nd (119.7)
Pass Yards Per Game: 21st (218.6)
Points: 14th (19)
Sacks: 2nd
Interceptions: T-11th
Passes Defensed: 15th
Forced Fumbles: 6th
Scoring Defense: T-16th

Ironically guess who has the best defense this year who is also 5-1? You guessed it: Tampa Bay. (1st in YPC, 1st in RYPG, 7th in PYPG, 3rd Points Allowed, t-13th sacks, t-11th ints, t-11th FF, t-11th PD's, t-16th scoring defense)

This defense compared to the Bucs & Ravens defenses is like comparing the Patriots vs. Texas Tech.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 26, 2005 12:48 pm 
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I agree 100% with Pudge & Scout and couldn't have put it any better.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Oct 26, 2005 2:18 pm 
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I think we can make it to the Super Bowl, but maybe not win it. The AFC has some strong teams. Of course, as it has been beaten to death, the passing game need to improve. If we fall behind early or a team shuts down the running game, ala what the Eagles did to LT and the Chargers last week, we maybe in trouble.

In the playoffs, you need to run the ball and play good defense. We obviously can run, but the defense is still suspect in my mind. Last year I thought our defense over achieved and expected a drop this year, but didn't expect this much of a tail off.

The team is getting there and once in the playoffs, anything can happen.


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 Post subject: The bottome line is its a team game
PostPosted: Wed Oct 26, 2005 4:03 pm 
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Those fans who think the falcon's are going all the way,just look we lead the NFL in rushing and our defense can play with anyone have another thing coming.Good points by this forum,you guys can at least see that not everything is rosy even with a 5-2 record. Until we play a team game(pass rush,pass defense,rush defense, and the offense learns to pass) we are really playing with fire to even get to the super bowl.I don't know what team in the NFC will be there in the nfc championship but whoever it is will have to mostly play all facets of the game.The way the falcon's have looked they are either up or down and I am not sure they can make it to the nfc championship.Anything is possible and I have an open mind but I have to be realistic with a total team effort very very few teams get to the super bowl and even win it.

I guess the thing that burns me up is we see the weaknesses but Mora and crew seem to be blind about the significance that the falcon's must learn to pass consistently and the defense needs to play better.I did like the run defense vs the jets.Maybe Shopshire or lake can teach lavalias had to run stop.We have potential but not realizing the shortcomings like it seems mora and crew does is a 2 way street to being bumped out early in the playoffs.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 26, 2005 4:33 pm 
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Our defense is ranked in the 20's for yardage allowed and middle teens for points allowed. With injuries mounting I don't see us making a SB run this year. It is very clear that defense wins titles (The Rams were the last true offensive powerhouse to win and even they had a better defense). When we plug some holes up next year I can see a run but not this year. I'll be good with an NFCCG trip again.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 26, 2005 7:05 pm 
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i have to agree with yulin here. just because mora puts a positive spin to something it doesn't mean he doesn't recognize the problem. i can only assume he does recognize it and is doing the best he can with what he has in front of him. so i think it's absolutely true that he's got to keep positive energy going not only with the way he deals with the media but also with the players. he showed bryan scott old footage of ronnie lott and other great safeties missing tackles and having bad games and then coming back to have great games. from a psychological view point he did the right thing for the player in my opinion. bill parcels might try to tear them apart whereas mora tries to build them back up. i don't think mora has to tell vick he's had 2crappy passing games. im sure vick knows that. but we also won.
as for the question can we win really win the superbowl in 2006?
hell yeah. some here might say it's not realistic and all that but i think it's certainly realistic, perhaps not probable. what teams really look daunting to the falcons right now? the colts, pitt, the bucs and the eagles. granted other teams could beat the falcons but im saying the kinda scary looking teams. if we reach the playoffs we won't have to play all of them. the falcs have this ability to play up to competition as well as play down. that means they will always be competitive. they will generally always have a chance. and consider how inconsistent and sometimes awful the falcons have been so far to have a 5-2 season. even when the play bad they can win, what if they play well? im not saying its probable, but its certainly realistic that they can win the superbowl. in myopinion!


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Oct 26, 2005 7:50 pm 
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facts:

the team looks like crap right now.
the team has a super easy schedule coming up.

fact/fiction:

the team should finish the season 12-4 with the easy schedule
by playoff time the bugs should be worked out.

fact or fiction?


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Oct 26, 2005 10:56 pm 
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The_Incomparable wrote:
Well we're #6 in the league in scoring so we don't really need to have a scary defense, they just need to make some big plays.


Well as I said before....


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 Post subject: Let me make some remarks!
PostPosted: Wed Oct 26, 2005 11:45 pm 
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Yulin great post I wanted to address some of your questions.Does Mora know there are weaknesses and why doesn't he admit them? This can be addressed with 2 answers.
A.He is just plain stupid and believes the offense will continue to roll over teams with its running attack and no consistency of the pass.We have to go with our strengths and not our weaknesses philopshy.
B.He realizes there are weaknesses although he has made some comments about improving,when is it going to get done? Do we have the man power to get it done? First the pass offense.How in the world can vick go from throwing 3000 yds in 2002 and now is the most inconsistent QB in the league who many times doesn't have a clue despite is it 4 or 5 yrs in the league.We have a new offense but when can we stop saying that and see some progress? The Greg Knapp philopshy is the WCO offense with a few spins in between.You have to build your offense with your strengths and Vick's is throwing the ball not short but intermediate and long although his long passing has regressed.True our strength is running you do have to pass to keep defenses honest.I really feel if the falcon's don't win it this year which is highly improbably or next that could be it for knapp and the short passing.Three years is enough time in this offense and I just hope there is a coach who can get all of vick's talent out of him.I am high on norm chow still he just doesn't have the players to execute now.

I did see some changes although forced on the defense such as the def tackles.Lake played better than Lavalias so maybe between shopshire and lake they can plug up the holes and stop running games.Babineaux I think could be to light.

Becoming an NFL champion takes time and this is only the second year of the mora regime.Teams like the Colts and Eagles have been knocking for awhile so we have some time.I thinl OPudge is right 2007 maybe the year but I hope it can be done sooner since thec falcons have been dormats for so long.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 27, 2005 1:01 pm 
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GSUTeke wrote:
facts:

the team looks like crap right now.
the team has a super easy schedule coming up.

fact/fiction:

the team should finish the season 12-4 with the easy schedule
by playoff time the bugs should be worked out.

fact or fiction?


Easy? Not really. We face a lot of good defenses the rest of the year. Tampa Bay looks more like a pair of losses, we can never take Carolina lightly, and Miami has re-emerged as a decent team. Chicago may not have much offense but they run the ball well and play great defense and we have a hard time with both.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 27, 2005 8:35 pm 
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As of now Tampa & Carolina are two of the top 3 defenses against the run this year, so we're going to have to pull it together to win our division. If we win 3 of those 4 games I would feell safe about our chances to win home field & the division.


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