Vick: Interesting Passer Rating Splits

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Vick: Interesting Passer Rating Splits

Postby mwjr » Thu Oct 20, 2005 11:16 am

The drive to win last Sunday's game got me to thinking about this, and out of curiosity, I looked up Vick's passer rating by quarter. I found some interesting numbers.

Passer Rating by Qtr.
First Quarter = 91.3
Second Quarter = 54.3
Third Quarter = 71.7
Fourth Quarter = 91.6

At first glance, one might think, "Wow! He's great in the 4th quarter" However, the ratings are only part of the story.

Passing Attempts by Quarter
1Q - 32 attempts (5 games)
2Q - 25 attempts (5 games)
3Q - 24 attempts (4 games)
4Q - 19 attempts (4 games)

The majority of Vick's attempts come in the 1st quarter. With the fewest number of attempts coming the 4th quarter, there are fewer chances for mistakes, hence the higher passer rating. The fewer number of attempts obviously comes from the offensive switch to a run game, in an attempt to wear down the defense. That plus the fact that Vick has played into the 3rd and 4th quarters 1 less game.

Now here's where it gets very confusing.

Passer Rating on Specific Passing Attempts
Attempts 1-10 of a game (48 attempts) - 103.5 passer rating
Attempts 11-20 (39 attempts) - 43.7 passer rating
Attempts 21-30 (13 attempts) - 82.2 passer rating

So, for whatever reasons, Vick is on fire through his 1st 10 passes. He then takes a free fall on his next 10 attempts, and picks it up towards the end of the game.

What causes this ebb and flow?

My guess is that the opposing defense makes adjustments, and it takes our coordinators a quarter or so to make adjusments to the defense's adjustments.

Any other thoughts on what might cause this?

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Re: Vick: Interesting Passer Rating Splits

Postby AngryJohnny51 » Thu Oct 20, 2005 11:27 am

mwjr wrote:The drive to win last Sunday's game got me to thinking about this, and out of curiosity, I looked up Vick's passer rating by quarter. I found some interesting numbers.

Passer Rating by Qtr.
First Quarter = 91.3
Second Quarter = 54.3
Third Quarter = 71.7
Fourth Quarter = 91.6

At first glance, one might think, "Wow! He's great in the 4th quarter" However, the ratings are only part of the story.

Passing Attempts by Quarter
1Q - 32 attempts (5 games)
2Q - 25 attempts (5 games)
3Q - 24 attempts (4 games)
4Q - 19 attempts (4 games)

The majority of Vick's attempts come in the 1st quarter. With the fewest number of attempts coming the 4th quarter, there are fewer chances for mistakes, hence the higher passer rating. The fewer number of attempts obviously comes from the offensive switch to a run game, in an attempt to wear down the defense. That plus the fact that Vick has played into the 3rd and 4th quarters 1 less game.

Now here's where it gets very confusing.

Passer Rating on Specific Passing Attempts
Attempts 1-10 of a game (48 attempts) - 103.5 passer rating
Attempts 11-20 (39 attempts) - 43.7 passer rating
Attempts 21-30 (13 attempts) - 82.2 passer rating

So, for whatever reasons, Vick is on fire through his 1st 10 passes. He then takes a free fall on his next 10 attempts, and picks it up towards the end of the game.

What causes this ebb and flow?

My guess is that the opposing defense makes adjustments, and it takes our coordinators a quarter or so to make adjusments to the defense's adjustments.

Any other thoughts on what might cause this?


Great stats. What site did you pull them off. I'd love to check it out. Thanks.

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Postby dirtybirdnw » Thu Oct 20, 2005 12:15 pm

Perhaps the Falcons need to use the system that Denver has gone to with Jake Plummer. As we all know Plummer shoots himself in the foot when he passes too many times. Maybe Atlanta needs to take the same approach with Vick. For every pass there is a run and the offense should never become pass-wacky. When Jake Plummer's pass total is around 25 per game he's lights out for the most part.

It's almost like a pitch count... We know Vick is good for so many passes so we pace him for that total during the course of the game. If he starts getting above that total start working with passing plays he has a high percentage of success with only.
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Postby The_Incomparable » Thu Oct 20, 2005 1:16 pm

I'd like to find out a drops by quarter stat for this season as well.

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Re: Vick: Interesting Passer Rating Splits

Postby mwjr » Thu Oct 20, 2005 2:23 pm

AngryJohnny51 wrote:Great stats. What site did you pull them off. I'd love to check it out. Thanks.


CNNSI.com, or whatever it is now.

Go to the player page and select Passing Splits.

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Re: Vick: Interesting Passer Rating Splits

Postby AngryJohnny51 » Thu Oct 20, 2005 2:31 pm

mwjr wrote:
AngryJohnny51 wrote:Great stats. What site did you pull them off. I'd love to check it out. Thanks.


CNNSI.com, or whatever it is now.

Go to the player page and select Passing Splits.


Thanks.

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Plummer

Postby MarylandFalcon1 » Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:10 pm

Plummer is getting better in his 3rd season with the Broncos, but I think it is Mike Shan that is actually changing. He has started rolling Jake out on almost every pass. Jake has stated that he 'can't throw in a pocket'. He has been throwing on the run since he was 11 years old and that is his comfort zone, and he has also stated that he 'throws his best balls when a play breaks down'. They didn't call him 'the snake' for the fun of it, the guy loves to move around.

Perhaps this should be looked at by the Falcons with Vick, although I will say I have been impressed with Vick's improvement from the pocket.

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Postby Pudge » Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:19 am

The_Incomparable wrote:I'd like to find out a drops by quarter stat for this season as well.


Well one of the few places that has dropped ball stats is PFW, and according to them we've only had 6 dropped passes, I think 2 of which were by Vick. They've only attribute Dez White with 1 dropped ball, instead saying the other passes he didn't hang onto were poor throws by the QB. And that's to say that a poor throw is one that is too low, too high, behind the WRs, etc. And if you really look at Dez's dropped balls, you'll see that technically most of them are poor throws. That doesn't excuse them, because as most know, if a receiver is able to get a hand on it, he's supposed to catch it.

I think those stats are pretty interesting, when you consider a game like the Vikings game which Vick didn't finish. But he came out very hot, and was something like 6 for 8 passing and had a TD pass, which I know really boosts the passer rating a lot when you throw a TD and no INT with only a few attempts. But then contrast that to the Saints game, where Vick didn't really look good until that final drive, where he was something liek 6 for 7 passing. Up until that point he was something like 5 for 16 passing, which is absolutely terrible.

It's just inconsistency that plagues him. The entire offense has that problem (how much is Vick to blame, how much is it Knapp?) because there seems to be entire quarters that we don't do absolutely anything on offense. It has been the case for the entire season. It seems in each game, there are at least 2 whole quarters where we just can't do anything offensively. vs. the Eagles, it was pretty much every quarter except the 2nd one. Against, the Pats it was the 1st and 3rd. Seahawks: the entire first half. It's a trend that is going to have to stop soon if our offense is going to become a consistent threat.
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Postby The_Incomparable » Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:32 am

Pudge wrote:
The_Incomparable wrote:I'd like to find out a drops by quarter stat for this season as well.


Well one of the few places that has dropped ball stats is PFW, and according to them we've only had 6 dropped passes, I think 2 of which were by Vick. They've only attribute Dez White with 1 dropped ball, instead saying the other passes he didn't hang onto were poor throws by the QB. And that's to say that a poor throw is one that is too low, too high, behind the WRs, etc. And if you really look at Dez's dropped balls, you'll see that technically most of them are poor throws. That doesn't excuse them, because as most know, if a receiver is able to get a hand on it, he's supposed to catch it.




That is so far from the truth it is pitiful. The fact they tried to say that tells me their stats are incorrect. The first 2 drops Dez had in San Antonio were right to him and he just flubbed them. The one he dropped against the Pats from Schaub was a good pass too & he's only got one drop attributed to him? Wrong answer. They need to go back & watch the game tapes.


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