It is currently Tue Sep 23, 2014 9:30 pm

All times are UTC - 4 hours [ DST ]





Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 14 posts ] 
Author Message
 Post subject: TE cut from the offense?
PostPosted: Thu May 22, 2014 2:28 pm 
Offline
Superstar
Superstar

Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:31 pm
Posts: 3139
So did I miss this on here?



Quote:
Tony Gonzalez's position cut from Falcons' offense

By Chris Wesseling
Around the League Writer
Published: May 13, 2014 at 04:04 p.m.
Updated: May 13, 2014 at 04:31 p.m.









Before Tony Gonzalez accepted a job with CBS' "The NFL Today" pregame show, he joked about returning to Atlanta if the Falcons jump out to a hot start this season.

The Falcons aren't keeping his seat warm. In fact, they have removed his position from Dirk Koetter's offense.







Following through on their plan to add physicality on both sides of the line of scrimmage, the Falcons will use Levine Toilolo as a more traditional blocking tight end.

"There'll be a change in the type of tight end we'll have on our roster," coach Mike Smith said, via The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. "We'll have a 'Y' tight end, where he'll be an inline player (lined up tight to the formation). They won't be moving around nearly as much as what we call a 'F.' Tony Gonzalez was more of a 'F' tight end than a 'Y' tight end."

Good coaching staffs mold their schemes to suit the talents of their players. With Gonzalez out of the picture, Koetter will run more three-wide receiver sets to make up for the 82 receptions, 835 yards and seven touchdowns that Gonzalez averaged over five years in Atlanta.

That means Harry Douglas will play a bigger role, fresh off the first 1,000-yard season of his career.

The upshot for fantasy footballers: Falcons tight end is no longer a draftable entity.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: TE cut from the offense?
PostPosted: Thu May 22, 2014 6:32 pm 
Offline
Moderator
Moderator
User avatar

Joined: Tue Aug 09, 2005 3:11 pm
Posts: 4504
Location: Vancouver, WA
Harry Douglas and "bigger role" do not invoke confidence in upcoming season being successful.

_________________
Fear the BEARD!


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: TE cut from the offense?
PostPosted: Thu May 22, 2014 8:01 pm 
Offline
Superstar
Superstar

Joined: Tue Jan 10, 2006 3:15 pm
Posts: 4260
Still firmly convinced that this coaching staff has no clue how to get the most out of Matt Ryan.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: TE cut from the offense?
PostPosted: Thu May 22, 2014 9:54 pm 
Offline
Purveyor of Truth & Justice
Purveyor of Truth & Justice
User avatar

Joined: Thu Dec 23, 2004 3:03 pm
Posts: 25938
Location: North Carolina
Well if they use Harry correctly, he could be an adequate replacement. They'll need to use him like the Chiefs use Donnie Avery, which is A LOT of shallow crossing routes designed to allow him to use his speed after the catch. But that requires the team to use their outside WRs to help push the LBs and Ss downfield with more vertical routes. The Falcons patented 7-yard outs and 12-yard curls ain't gonna cut it...

_________________
"Vincere scis, Hannibal, victoria uti nescis" -- Maharbal, 216 B.C.E.


Top
 Profile E-mail  
 
 Post subject: Re: TE cut from the offense?
PostPosted: Thu May 22, 2014 10:57 pm 
Offline
All-Pro
All-Pro

Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2007 2:01 pm
Posts: 952
Not having 2 TEs who can catch, and 4 receivers who can consistently beat a safety is just negligence when dealing with a style of QB like Ryan.

In a simple instance, if Niklas had dropped to the 3rd, and the Falcons had picked up him and Martavis Bryant, they'd have a radically different offense for the price of a couple of midrounders (same deal if they had taken a mid tier FA TE, midtier WR, and a burner in the 3rd. That they're so close and don't take the easy steps is what makes it so frustrating.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: TE cut from the offense?
PostPosted: Sun May 25, 2014 4:57 pm 
Offline
Superstar
Superstar

Joined: Sat Jan 29, 2005 8:57 pm
Posts: 4581
Harry could be adequate, but over the years I've just come to hate the guy.... I'll admit I dislike him more than he plays poorly; he's just one of those players who rub me the wrong way. I think my initial expectations for him were just more than he could ever produce!!

_________________
"Everything Counts"
Cyril


Image


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: TE cut from the offense?
PostPosted: Sun May 25, 2014 7:36 pm 
Offline
Purveyor of Truth & Justice
Purveyor of Truth & Justice
User avatar

Joined: Thu Dec 23, 2004 3:03 pm
Posts: 25938
Location: North Carolina
Cyril wrote:
Harry could be adequate, but over the years I've just come to hate the guy.... I'll admit I dislike him more than he plays poorly; he's just one of those players who rub me the wrong way. I think my initial expectations for him were just more than he could ever produce!!

I hear ya Cyril. I had visions of a poor man's Marvin Harrison when we got Harry in 2008. Oh how much I thought I knew back then but did not know!!

I defended him for years, trying to make excuses for why he hadn't developed into his full potential (other better WRs surrounding him, the ACL tear, etc.), but all under the premise that if he got an extended opportunity he might show something. And he did show something, he got a 1,000 yard season in 2013. And 3 years ago, I would have considered that to be a huge accomplishment. But I know better now. Thanks to the existence of Stevie Johnson and Julio Jones, I understand that you could be an extremely productive player but add little to no real value to your team's ability to win football games. In terms of helping our team win games, Douglas did anything but. That's not his fault, he can't help that he doesn't have a very big frame. It makes you start to realize how good Marvin Harrison was despite weight 175 pounds for most of his career.

But of course, the real people that should get that are the people making decisions in Atlanta, and they continue to produce this farce that suggests that Harry Douglas is an asset to this offense rather than a hindrance.

_________________
"Vincere scis, Hannibal, victoria uti nescis" -- Maharbal, 216 B.C.E.


Top
 Profile E-mail  
 
 Post subject: Re: TE cut from the offense?
PostPosted: Sun May 25, 2014 8:52 pm 
Offline
Superstar
Superstar

Joined: Tue Jan 10, 2006 3:15 pm
Posts: 4260
As you mentioned before, Harry COULD BE an asset to the offense, if we were to spread the field a bit. But we don't do that. We make it easy for defenses to cover us by cramming everything into 10 yards.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: TE cut from the offense?
PostPosted: Tue May 27, 2014 12:20 pm 
Offline
Superstar
Superstar

Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:31 pm
Posts: 3139
RobertAP wrote:
As you mentioned before, Harry COULD BE an asset to the offense, if we were to spread the field a bit. But we don't do that. We make it easy for defenses to cover us by cramming everything into 10 yards.



Matt Ryan rookie year, 2008: Sacked 17 times in 434 attempts, threw deep (15+ air yards) 21.9% of the time.

Matt Ryan, 2009: Sacked 19 times in 451 attempts, threw deep 19.5% of the time.

Matt Ryan, 2010: Sacked 23 times in 571 attempts, threw deep 20% of the time.

Matt Ryan, 2011: Sacked 26 times in 566 attempts, threw deep 20.7% of the time.

Matt Ryan, 2012: Sacked 28 times in 615 attempts, threw deep 17.6% of the time.

Matt Ryan, 2013: Sacked 44 times in 651 attempts, threw deep 12.1% of the time.

Clearly the poor o-line play and injuries effected what the offense could and couldn't do in 2013.

As for reference, the league leaders in deep balls thrown:

2008: J. Russell, Raiders threw deep 27.4% of the time.
2009: J. Russell, Raiders threw deep 28.5% of the time.
2010: V. Young, Titans threw deep 32.7% of the time.
2011: T. Tebow, Broncos threw deep 33.5% of the time.
2012: J. Cutler, Bears threw deep 28.8% of the time.
2013: M. Vick, Eagles threw deep 31.2% of the time.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: TE cut from the offense?
PostPosted: Tue May 27, 2014 3:38 pm 
Offline
Playmaker
Playmaker
User avatar

Joined: Sun Feb 10, 2008 9:46 am
Posts: 487
Location: Vacaville, CA
AngryJohnny51 wrote:
Clearly the poor o-line play and injuries effected what the offense could and couldn't do in 2013.

As for reference, the league leaders in deep balls thrown:

2008: J. Russell, Raiders threw deep 27.4% of the time.
2009: J. Russell, Raiders threw deep 28.5% of the time.
2010: V. Young, Titans threw deep 32.7% of the time.
2011: T. Tebow, Broncos threw deep 33.5% of the time.
2012: J. Cutler, Bears threw deep 28.8% of the time.
2013: M. Vick, Eagles threw deep 31.2% of the time.


Wow. That's a lot of success fueled by the deep ball, eh? :lol:


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: TE cut from the offense?
PostPosted: Wed May 28, 2014 12:36 am 
Offline
Purveyor of Truth & Justice
Purveyor of Truth & Justice
User avatar

Joined: Thu Dec 23, 2004 3:03 pm
Posts: 25938
Location: North Carolina
samedi wrote:
AngryJohnny51 wrote:
Clearly the poor o-line play and injuries effected what the offense could and couldn't do in 2013.

As for reference, the league leaders in deep balls thrown:

2008: J. Russell, Raiders threw deep 27.4% of the time.
2009: J. Russell, Raiders threw deep 28.5% of the time.
2010: V. Young, Titans threw deep 32.7% of the time.
2011: T. Tebow, Broncos threw deep 33.5% of the time.
2012: J. Cutler, Bears threw deep 28.8% of the time.
2013: M. Vick, Eagles threw deep 31.2% of the time.


Wow. That's a lot of success fueled by the deep ball, eh? :lol:

Sure, if you only look at the league leaders. But if you only factor in qualifiers (i.e 220+ attempts in a season) and look at the TOp 5 or 6, you'll see something even more interesting:

2013

1. Nick Foles - 27.4%
2. Russell Wilson - 26.5%
3. Brandon Weeden - 25.1%
4. Joe Flacco - 24.8%
5. Geno Smith - 23.9%

2012

1. Jay Cutler - 28.8%
2. Colin Kaepernick - 27.5%
3. Andrew Luck - 27.0%
4. Josh Freeman - 25.6%
5. Joe Flacco - 25.4%

2011

1. Tim Tebow - 33.5%
2. Carson Palmer - 28.4%
3. Eli Manning - 28.1%
4. Matt Moore - 26.1%
5. Cam Newton - 25.7%

2010

1. Ben Roethlisberger - 26.2%
2. Derek Anderson - 26.0%
3. Kerry Collins - 25.2%
4. Joe Flacco - 25.2%
5. Eli Manning - 24.5%
6. Aaron Rodgers - 23.8%

The players in bold you might've figured out where QBs that played in Super Bowls.

The point isn't to say that throwing the ball deep = success. The point is that the evidence clearly shows it's much easier to score points if you can generate big plays. And the more points you score the more games you win.

And in the case of the Falcons, generating big plays is hard when Matt Ryan is throwing the ball down the field 50% less than the average starting NFL quarterback.

You look at the past 3 seasons, the average % for a playoff QB in terms of deep passes is 21.6% deep passes. The median is 20.7%.

Even when the Falcons were getting relatively good protection, they were still throwing the ball downfield at an average rate.

Also, you may not be aware that the Falcons deep passing (or lack thereof) also correlates highly with the amount of running they do.

Run Play Percentages:

2008 - 54.2%
2009 - 43.0%
2010 - 44.6%
2011 - 41.7%
2012 - 37.2%
2013 - 31.4%

It all just illustrates how conservative the Falcons offense is. And it's holding the team back.

_________________
"Vincere scis, Hannibal, victoria uti nescis" -- Maharbal, 216 B.C.E.


Top
 Profile E-mail  
 
 Post subject: Re: TE cut from the offense?
PostPosted: Wed May 28, 2014 3:44 pm 
Offline
Superstar
Superstar

Joined: Sat Jan 29, 2005 8:57 pm
Posts: 4581
Quote:
Matt Ryan, 2011: Sacked 26 times in 566 attempts, threw deep 20.7% of the time.

Matt Ryan, 2012: Sacked 28 times in 615 attempts, threw deep 17.6% of the time.

Matt Ryan, 2013: Sacked 44 times in 651 attempts, threw deep 12.1% of the time.


Look anytime Ryan is sacked more than 25 times our line sucks..... Ryan is good at throwing the ball away, its just last year the line sucked SO BAD;
BUT I still expect about 30 sacks.......

Dang if 40 years ago someone in Atlanta said we're getting a good Offensive line, and good defensive line; I believe we'd had have 40 years of good football.

Our Front office still doesn't know what kind of team they want to build.

_________________
"Everything Counts"
Cyril


Image


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: TE cut from the offense?
PostPosted: Wed May 28, 2014 4:20 pm 
Offline
Playmaker
Playmaker
User avatar

Joined: Sun Feb 10, 2008 9:46 am
Posts: 487
Location: Vacaville, CA
Definitely more a chuckle than a legit disagreement from me, Pudge, but your point about 2-5 is a great rebuttal; however, 2 questions about the rest:

Are we really saying that less than 2% of the time is that significant for throwing the ball deep? Granted last year was considerably more of a deviation from ATL to the rest of the league, but I think we can also agree that it's clearly an outlier stat, like the 80% passing in the 4th quarter. Considering 600 pass attempts per year, that's 12 fewer deep balls per year, or .75 per game; moreover, only 7 of those would be completed. With a team that frequently plays one-score games, I guess this is significant, but it feels very small.

Also, did you just cite a decrease in running plays to suggest that ATL is overly conservative? I would say that for the vast majority of the NFL's history, this would be exactly the opposite of that label? Could you show me what you mean by that?


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: TE cut from the offense?
PostPosted: Wed May 28, 2014 6:56 pm 
Offline
Purveyor of Truth & Justice
Purveyor of Truth & Justice
User avatar

Joined: Thu Dec 23, 2004 3:03 pm
Posts: 25938
Location: North Carolina
I understand samedi. I used to be on this forum saying the deep ball was overrated. How can a player that represents only 3-7% of all pass plays be that important?

But what I've learned in the years since that completing a deep pass is highly valuable, again because it's so much easier to score in the NFL when you can get those chunk yardage.

With the changes to the kickoff, generally speaking teams are forced to go 80 yards to score every time they get the ball. Given that the average NFL play goes for about 5-6 yards, that basically means that on average you're going to need roughly 15 plays to score. How many 3rd down conversions do you need for that drive? 3? 4?

That's all well and good when you're playing the Jaguars or Raiders. But when you're playing the Seahawks, 49ers or Steelers, that's going to be very hard to do.

If you can get a 30 yard play, that basically takes 5 plays out of the equation. Now you have to score on 10 plays, which is a lot easier. Now you're down to 2 3rd down conversions.

Again, just look at the drives in NFC Championship game:

EVERY SINGLE score in that game came on a drive caused by a turnover, a big KO return, or a 20+ yd play.

Go back to our playoff games last year, and nearly every score once came because of a turnover, big ST return, or a 20+ play.

By taking your chances in the regular season, IMO it prepares you for the postseason.

_________________
"Vincere scis, Hannibal, victoria uti nescis" -- Maharbal, 216 B.C.E.


Top
 Profile E-mail  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 14 posts ] 

All times are UTC - 4 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 1 guest


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Jump to: