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 Post subject: Great article on which draft slots enjoy success
PostPosted: Mon May 05, 2014 1:46 am 
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http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-foo ... st-success

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 Post subject: Re: Great article on which draft slots enjoy success
PostPosted: Mon May 05, 2014 1:04 pm 
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My theory? Lots of quality teams allowed to sit in a sweet spot of the draft. Being a better team means not drafting for need, which means the ability to take the best player on the board (like CJ2K). It also means you can swoop on a guy who inexplicably drops to you there (a la Rodgers).

This... A million times, this! This is why I said that we were in, "A perfect drafting position," in 2011. The, "needs," that we had were at positions that were relatively easy to get late in the 1st, and we could have, "stolen," someone who had dropped.

This is also why I don't like trading up in the 1st round. A good GM will get good players whether he's picking 5th, or 15th. Generally speaking, your odds of getting a bust are pretty consistent throughout the first round. Trading up is the sign of a bad GM.


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 Post subject: Re: Great article on which draft slots enjoy success
PostPosted: Mon May 05, 2014 5:33 pm 
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Trading up is good if you really believe the player you want is going to be one of the best. For example people use the Julio case all the time however IF TD would have hit on other players in the draft(s) we wouldn't have this constant debate of trading all those picks. I'm not talking about just that draft but over his 6 yr record. The 49ers traded up for Jerry Rice did you know that. Rice didn't turn out to bad and who knows who the player was given up to get Rice. You have to hit on other picks besides the first couple of rounds to be an elite team and GM.

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 Post subject: Re: Great article on which draft slots enjoy success
PostPosted: Mon May 05, 2014 9:02 pm 
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I don't have any problem with trading up if you think a guy will be a perfect fit in your scheme/team and fits a need.

I think when you start mortgaging high picks for a complementary player, you get yourself into trouble.

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 Post subject: Re: Great article on which draft slots enjoy success
PostPosted: Mon May 05, 2014 9:06 pm 
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thescout wrote:
Trading up is good if you really believe the player you want is going to be one of the best. For example people use the Julio case all the time however IF TD would have hit on other players in the draft(s) we wouldn't have this constant debate of trading all those picks. I'm not talking about just that draft but over his 6 yr record. The 49ers traded up for Jerry Rice did you know that. Rice didn't turn out to bad and who knows who the player was given up to get Rice. You have to hit on other picks besides the first couple of rounds to be an elite team and GM.

The circumstances for the Rice deal were entirely different. The 49ers had just won a Superbowl... They were picking last in the first round. They traded their first, second, and swapped 3rd rounders to get Rice. They didn't mortgage the future for him.

We gave up two firsts and a second (and a couple of 4ths) to get Jones. We had not just won a superbowl. Matter of fact, we had just gotten our butts creamed by a much more talented Green Bay team. We weren't, "one player away." We gave up 48 points to Green Bay, but decided that the, "problem," was the lack of a Wide Receiver. How dumb is that reasoning? Julio Jones is a very talented receiver. However, trading away the better part of two drafts to get him was a very dumb move. Time will continue to prove me right.


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 Post subject: Re: Great article on which draft slots enjoy success
PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2014 9:42 am 
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though this is about QB's, I thought it might be interesting to post in this thread...

It's from FootballNerdsiders, but it is a very good read..should make Pudge smile

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-a ... rback-data

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 Post subject: Re: Great article on which draft slots enjoy success
PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2014 10:27 am 
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Thanks for the link Fun Gus.


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 Post subject: Re: Great article on which draft slots enjoy success
PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2014 12:46 pm 
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Robert, I will agree with you for a change concerning it was probably the wrong assessment of our team to assume we were 1 good WR away. I will add that we should have targeted a strong defensive player instead in order to really make a difference. I have always felt that a good gm should address all the needs of his team in free agency as best as possible, and then he can take the best players available to him in the draft. In this draft, we are in a position where we have serviceable players in all positions, but in order improve we need to add as much high potential players as possible in order to counteract the lack of depth on the squad. While we have enough decent players to fill the roster, I would say we have areas where we really need to improve like pass rush and OL. Luckily, we have a very good chance to address one of those areas with our first pick. So, this is where I consider the risk involved here at #6 being just beyond reach potentially of the top 4-5 players we could really use. Yes , we could still get a solid player at 6, but will we get a player that can really help us right now? This is where I get tied up because I feel we "should" be able to take a Sammy Watkins or Clinton-Dix and be very happy to get a fantastic player, but I don't believe we've really helped ourselves as much as we could have if we secured a pass rusher or offensive tackle. And this article points out that we are in a tenuous position in the draft where history of this pick is concerned . So, this is where I see we have two choices: we can trade up and ensure we get the player we want, or we trade back from 6 if we don't have a player there that we like. The only way I'm ok with the latter option is if I'm sure someone is ready to deal with me to trade back. I'm honestly not a fan of trading all the way up to #1 because I'm not sold on Clowney. I'd rather trade up with the Jags or Browns and not pay so much to make it happen. Then we have a good chance of getting my favorites in this draft in Mack or Matthews. Trading back is cool to if we don't move so far that we miss on Lewan or someone else that really fits.


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 Post subject: Re: Great article on which draft slots enjoy success
PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2014 11:43 pm 
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I'm really gun shy on Lewan. I think that if we end up trading back, (say to 11 or so) we'd be better off going for Zack Martin. Martin doesn't grade out as an NFL tackle, even though he dominated the competition there at the college level. <shrug> Some scouts compare him to Logan Mankins, and I would love to have a guy like that on our line, whether it's at guard or tackle. Martin does appear to be the most versatile offensive lineman in the draft.

Another option if we traded down would be to snag Eric Ebron. Losing Tony G is going to set our offense back a bit. If Roddy is starting to decline, bringing in Ebron could really give the offense a kick start. Matt would have another big target to throw to, and Ebron has something Tony didn't have, speed. I realize that this doesn't improve the pass rush or OL, but it does give us a game changing player, and we don't have to mortgage the future to get him. (matter of fact, we traded back, so we probably have at last one additional 3rd round pick to work with) This would also give us a pair of receiving TE's that should create some significant mismatches.


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