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 Post subject: If they do make The Trade, what is the gag point?
PostPosted: Fri Apr 11, 2014 11:19 pm 
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If they don't stay put, what is the gag point on the trade value. The gag value is automatic to move up to number 1 overall. Number 2 is the highest to realistically consider.

The old trade chart isn't much help anymore with the rookie salary cap, and it really is only situational depending on the draft depth.

If they have to give more than this year 1 and 2 and next years 2, then pound sand. Draft is deep and the player isn't a franchise QB.

I wouldn't trade up and would be happy with Mack, Robinson, or Matthews - one of which will surely be there at 6.

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 Post subject: Re: If they do make The Trade, what is the gag point?
PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2014 12:06 am 
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Unless they trade 4th and later round picks, I think trading up is a huge mistake. If we give up a #2 or #3 this year, we're screwing ourselves again. If we give up future picks, we're screwing ourselves. If we continue to give up draft picks that have a high chance of turning into starters in order to obtain one, "sure fire," pick, this team will never be in a superbowl. A couple of really talented players here and there simply can't compete with a well built, "team."


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 Post subject: Re: If they do make The Trade, what is the gag point?
PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2014 1:41 am 
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At this point who are we even trading up for? Clowney? He isn't a 3-4 player, and we have invested most of our FA dollars into converting over to that scheme. Is Mack really that much better than Barr, or Robinson that much better than Matthews that it's worth giving away possibly next year's first or this year's high second, or BOTH :oops:

If we trade up, we should fire TD asap.

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 Post subject: Re: If they do make The Trade, what is the gag point?
PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2014 3:06 am 
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DaveWaz wrote:
At this point who are we even trading up for? Clowney? He isn't a 3-4 player, and we have invested most of our FA dollars into converting over to that scheme. Is Mack really that much better than Barr, or Robinson that much better than Matthews that it's worth giving away possibly next year's first or this year's high second, or BOTH :oops:

If we trade up, we should fire TD asap.



You seem to think we will switch to a 3-4. Why wouldn't we continue in the hybrid that we have been in since Nolan got here. Hell, 4-3 or 3-4, are really archaic terms nowadays. How often are defenses really in their base defense any more?

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 Post subject: Re: If they do make The Trade, what is the gag point?
PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2014 3:32 am 
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Here's my expectation on the trade:

This year's #2 and #4, and next year's #3.

If we give up less than that, I guess I won't lose any sleep. Anymore than that, and Dimitroff is a fool.

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 Post subject: Re: If they do make The Trade, what is the gag point?
PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2014 4:30 am 
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Pudge wrote:
Here's my expectation on the trade:

This year's #2 and #4, and next year's #3.

If we give up less than that, I guess I won't lose any sleep. Anymore than that, and Dimitroff is a fool.



Pudge let me get this straight I assume you would give the 6th pick, this year's 2nd and 4th plus next years 3rd correct? Based on the law of averages usually the 1st rounder and 2nd rounder you can get very good starters however the 4th this year and 3rd next would basically probably be average starts in the league if that. Would Texas or the Rams give up no1 or 2 pick to get 2 good starters and to average or below players for Clowney? I would offer it to one of those two teams but some how I don't think they would take it.

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 Post subject: Re: If they do make The Trade, what is the gag point?
PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2014 11:16 am 
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If Pudge's scenario happens, this team is doomed. As long as the front office continues to believe that giving up 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rounders to move up in the first round is a, "good idea," we're toast. We can't put enough talent on the field to compete over the long haul. We are morons to believe otherwise.

Seriously, if I were Blank, (and obviously, I'm not) if Dimitroff pulled the trigger on this trade, it would be the last thing that he ever did for this organization. The man has a problem.


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 Post subject: Re: If they do make The Trade, what is the gag point?
PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2014 11:25 am 
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Wease wrote:
DaveWaz wrote:
At this point who are we even trading up for? Clowney? He isn't a 3-4 player, and we have invested most of our FA dollars into converting over to that scheme. Is Mack really that much better than Barr, or Robinson that much better than Matthews that it's worth giving away possibly next year's first or this year's high second, or BOTH :oops:

If we trade up, we should fire TD asap.



You seem to think we will switch to a 3-4. Why wouldn't we continue in the hybrid that we have been in since Nolan got here. Hell, 4-3 or 3-4, are really archaic terms nowadays. How often are defenses really in their base defense any more?



So even if we do play a "hybrid" there really isn't a good spot on the field for Clowney when we are in the 3-4 which we will be more than half the time. So if we trade up for him we will then be trading up for a part time player, or a player that we will be playing out of position half the time. Both of which are retarded moves. We have high picks in the other rounds of the draft this year, lots of wholes on the roster and terrible depth throughout. Trading up especially when their will be other comparable players at 6 at the same positions is such a dumb idea I can't believe that it is even in our thoughts.

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 Post subject: Re: If they do make The Trade, what is the gag point?
PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2014 2:49 pm 
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Not necessarily as far as Clowney being a part timer. Clowney would play full time whether 3-4 or 4-3. Great players make plays no matter the defense. He would take a role like Demarcus Ware did for Dallas just rushing the passer. The rest of the defense would have to make amends for Clowney's coverage weakness. The old saying you can't have enough pass rushers is correct. Clowney is the best pass rusher in the draft.

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 Post subject: Re: If they do make The Trade, what is the gag point?
PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2014 5:48 pm 
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the scout wrote:
Pudge let me get this straight I assume you would give the 6th pick, this year's 2nd and 4th plus next years 3rd correct?

Yes, included in that trade scenario is the 6th overall pick.

DaveWaz wrote:
So even if we do play a "hybrid" there really isn't a good spot on the field for Clowney when we are in the 3-4 which we will be more than half the time. So if we trade up for him we will then be trading up for a part time player, or a player that we will be playing out of position half the time. Both of which are retarded moves. We have high picks in the other rounds of the draft this year, lots of wholes on the roster and terrible depth throughout. Trading up especially when their will be other comparable players at 6 at the same positions is such a dumb idea I can't believe that it is even in our thoughts.

That's because the Falcons won't be playing in a "true" 3-4 at least how people traditionally see it. The Falcons will play a 3-4 "under" front, which isn't the traditional scheme where there is a nose tackle in the middle over the center, and 2 5-technique DEs lined up on the outside shoulders of the offensive tackles, with 2 outside linebackers typically flanking them.

The 3-4 "under" replaces one of those 5-tech DEs with a 3-tech defensive tackle (in our case, Jonathan Babineaux) and can allow for one of the OLBs to play with his hand in the dirt, or stand up, but essentially he's no different than a traditional DE. The only distinction is whether he lines up with his hand on the ground or off it, but from a technical standpoint there is really no difference between him and a DE in a 4-3 scheme, as he will only rarely drop into coverage (basically only on zone blitzes). That role was filled by John Abraham in 2012 (who primarily stood up), Osi Umenyiora in 2013 (who usually played with his hand on the ground), and presumably Jadeveon Clowney in 2014.

Last year, Osi dropped into coverage 26 times, about 3.5% of his total snaps. When the Falcons started utilizing this defense in Week 5 of 2012, Abraham thereafter dropped into coverage 29 times, or about 4.8% of his snaps.

As you can see, Clowney in such a scheme would be playing the run or rushing the QB more than 95% of the time when he's on the field. So he won't be miscast. In fact, I would be shocked if Clowney dropped more than 3% of the time in this upcoming season.

But in reality, as I've said before, your nickel sub package is your true "base" defense because you're going to be in the nickel between 55-65% of your defensive plays in a given game or season. And in that instance, the Falcons will likely employ in a 4-2-5 the vast majority of the time. In that case, Clowney and Osi will line up as "traditional" 4-3 ends, with Babineaux in the 3-technique, and presumably Corey Peters playing the 1-technique nose. Although there are strong signs that the Falcons will mix in a lot more dime (4-1-6) in their defense this year, presumably with William Moore dropping into the box and acting much like a LB.

IMO, in today's NFL you have to focus the majority of your resources on building up your sub package defense first and foremost because that is the defense that you will be playing the most of. For example, in the 2nd game against the Saints in 2012, the Falcons played nickel 81% of plays.

The problem with the Falcons offseason is that they have overemphasized their base package with acquisitions like Soliai and Jackson, when they will be lucky to see 50% of snaps this year.

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 Post subject: Re: If they do make The Trade, what is the gag point?
PostPosted: Sun Apr 13, 2014 12:22 am 
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Good read Pudge, never thought of it like that, but your post makes sense. Still even though he'd be on the field 90% of the time, I don't think trading up is in our long term best interest due to the cost and due to the high level players that should still be available at positions we need at pic 6.

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 Post subject: Re: If they do make The Trade, what is the gag point?
PostPosted: Sun Apr 13, 2014 2:22 am 
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I think the trade talk is a bluff at 2. If Mr. Clowney reaches 4, I reserve my right to change my answer.

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 Post subject: Re: If they do make The Trade, what is the gag point?
PostPosted: Sun Apr 13, 2014 11:13 am 
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That's been my stance all offseason long Wease, but in the end I think the Falcons are going to move up. I think it's the most likely possibility on draft day, although I don't think it's likely if you get my drift.

Here's how I broke it down on twitter the other day:

36% chance we trade up for Clowney
28% chance we stay at 6 and take Matthews
25% chance we stay at 6 and take Barr
10% chance we stay at 6 and take Mack (because I doubt he falls there)
1% chance that we do something else

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 Post subject: Re: If they do make The Trade, what is the gag point?
PostPosted: Sun Apr 13, 2014 2:10 pm 
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While I've stated numerous times I think trading up would be a huge mistake, I also agree there is a good chance we will. :|

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 Post subject: Re: If they do make The Trade, what is the gag point?
PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 12:22 am 
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Pudge wrote:
[

But in reality, as I've said before, your nickel sub package is your true "base" defense because you're going to be in the nickel between 55-65% of your defensive plays in a given game or season. And in that instance, the Falcons will likely employ in a 4-2-5 the vast majority of the time. In that case, Clowney and Osi will line up as "traditional" 4-3 ends, with Babineaux in the 3-technique, and presumably Corey Peters playing the 1-technique nose. Although there are strong signs that the Falcons will mix in a lot more dime (4-1-6) in their defense this year, presumably with William Moore dropping into the box and acting much like a LB.

IMO, in today's NFL you have to focus the majority of your resources on building up your sub package defense first and foremost because that is the defense that you will be playing the most of. For example, in the 2nd game against the Saints in 2012, the Falcons played nickel 81% of plays.

The problem with the Falcons offseason is that they have overemphasized their base package with acquisitions like Soliai and Jackson, when they will be lucky to see 50% of snaps this year.



This has been my primary concern with the offseason (as well as not picking up a decent RT-5m and FS-3m).

Who would you have taken in the front 7?
I was leaning much more toward Starks at DT, or, if they were going to do a 3-4 with a run stopper, take Joseph for the LDE position, so he could slide inside on 3rd and long, and also could be depth at NT.

We were the worst team in the league at 3rd and long, so I'm not sure how getting teams into 3rd and long fixes the issue. It seemed like our lack of pass rush from the nickel and dime were the two largest defensive issues (combined with some hideous safety play), and I don't know how those have been fixed.


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 Post subject: Re: If they do make The Trade, what is the gag point?
PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 10:15 am 
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Posted by Mike Florio on April 13, 2014, 1:25 PM EDT

AP
Every year at this time, scouts and personnel executives slide behind the cover of anonymity and take low blows at top prospects.

Some of the scouts and personnel executives are doing it for one reason: To get the player to slide down the board so that the team whose employee is saying bad things privately about said player can draft him.

It’s one of the few certainties about the NFL’s talent acquisition process. Teams that like a player will say bad things about him in order to have a crack at him. Teams that don’t like a player will say good things, in the hopes that a team drafting higher will take him, pushing more desirable prospects down the board.

Without knowing the team, it’s impossible to know whether that agenda applies here. But that doesn’t stop plenty of media outlets from taking the quotes and using them, since they inject sizzle into the process.

The latest comes from Mark Eckel of NJ.com, who quotes an unnamed NFC personnel exec who doesn’t like defensive end Jadeveon Clowney.

“He’s spoiled, and he’s lazy,’’ the unnamed executive said. “He’s never worked hard a day in his life, now all of a sudden you’re going to give him a bunch of money and expect him to work hard. I don’t see it.’’

For good measure (perhaps), the unnamed executive expressed a belief that Clowney won’t slide. But maybe that’s just the genius of it.

“Oh, he’s going to be a high pick,’’ the unnamed executive said. “Some team will fall in love with him. But wait and see, just wait and see. I just don’t think you can count on him. I’m betting the under on him.’’

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 Post subject: Re: If they do make The Trade, what is the gag point?
PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 10:25 am 
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— Jadeveon Clowney is by far the favorite to be the first overall pick, whether it’s the Houston Texans or Atlanta Falcons selecting. We could see Houston wait to be on the clock before pulling the trigger, hoping to garner as much trade interest as possible.

http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/story/2 ... oing-to-1/

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 Post subject: Re: If they do make The Trade, what is the gag point?
PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 10:39 am 
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http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap200000 ... -long-time


Jadeveon Clowney is far from the only defensive lineman in the 2014 NFL Draft an NFC scouting director doesn't hold in high regard.


The scouting director, who directed harsh criticism toward Clowney, doesn't see much to like in the entire class of defensive linemen this year.

"It's a bad year," he said, according to nj.com. "It's the worst group I've seen in a long time."

The consensus among evaluators seems to be that there is a big dropoff at defensive end after Clowney -- NFL Media analyst Daniel Jeremiah ranks Clowney No. 1 in his list of the draft's top 50 prospects, and the second-highest ranked defensive end is Missouri's Kony Ealy, all the way down at No. 31. Not far behind Ealy among defensive ends are Auburn's Dee Ford (No. 33) and Notre Dame's Stephon Tuitt (No. 34).


As for the top interior defensive linemen this year, Pitt's Aaron Donald ranks 14th, Florida State's Timmy Jernigan ranks 18th, Notre Dame's Louis Nix ranks 28th and Minnesota's Ra'Shede Hageman ranks 30th on Jeremiah's list.

The nj.com story quoted the NFC scouting director as well as an NFC scout an an AFC personnel executive on several of this year's top DL prospects, and Clowney wasn't the only one that received the "lazy" label. Here's a look at some of their comments:

Stephon Tuitt
NFC scouting director: "Lazy. He's an underachiever. I would just say no."
AFC personnel executive: "I think he's better as a 3-4 end, than a 4-3 tackle. He has the size and build for it. But there were games where he just didn't do anything."

Kony Ealy
NFC scouting director: "He's got good size. He's big, fast, strong. There's a lot to work with there. Could he be a 3-4 linebacker? Yeah, he could, but I think he's a 4-3 end. He's a late first-round pick for sure."

Louis Nix
AFC personnel executive: "Classic nose tackle. He reminds me of (Packers NT) B.J. Raji. You put some people around him and he could make an impact."
NFC scout: "I don't see much there. He's not for us."

Aaron Donald
NFC scouting director: "I don't know about this guy. You look at him, and he's too small. But then you watch him and all he does is produce. I'm torn on him."

Ra'Shede Hageman
NFC scouting director: "When he wants to play, he can. You watch him for a couple of plays, and you see things. Then, you don't see him again."
AFC personnel executive: "He's big and talented. But he's lazy."

Timmy Jernigan
NFC scout: "He tapped out in the championship game. On that last Auburn drive, you couldn't find him."
AFC personnel executive: "He can do a lot of things. He's very strong. He's a first-rounder."

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 Post subject: Re: If they do make The Trade, what is the gag point?
PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 11:42 am 
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I wouldn't give 2 cents on what coaches and scouts are saying to the public this time of year. A lot of hot air at this time to devalue players. A simple method used by teams to hopefully get the player teams really want. :roll:

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 Post subject: Re: If they do make The Trade, what is the gag point?
PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 3:38 pm 
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I really think Houston is playing with us and that they do want a QB who they think will be there at 6, trying to bait us into something stupid.

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 Post subject: Re: If they do make The Trade, what is the gag point?
PostPosted: Tue Apr 15, 2014 12:44 am 
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We should stay right where we are!!

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 Post subject: Re: If they do make The Trade, what is the gag point?
PostPosted: Tue Apr 15, 2014 5:38 pm 
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thescout wrote:
I wouldn't give 2 cents on what coaches and scouts are saying to the public this time of year. A lot of hot air at this time to devalue players. A simple method used by teams to hopefully get the player teams really want. :roll:

I don't think it's as much hot air as the media likes to portray.

I think most teams, scouts, and sources give relatively honest opinions. The issue is that the media only sources 1 or 2 guys and then pretends that is the consensus for all NFL teams. It's not. It's just 1 or 2 voices in a sea of 32. If you were to get quotes from all 32 teams, you'd probably see 12 of them saying one thing, another 12 saying something different, 5 of them saying a third thing, and then another 3 of them saying something completely out of left field.

DaveWaz wrote:
I really think Houston is playing with us and that they do want a QB who they think will be there at 6, trying to bait us into something stupid.

Think about the stupidest thing the Falcons could do, and that's usually what they'll do. :lol:

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