It is currently Mon Jul 28, 2014 9:39 pm

All times are UTC - 4 hours [ DST ]





Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 20 posts ] 
Author Message
 Post subject: Thursday Night Stinkfest
PostPosted: Thu Nov 21, 2013 9:45 am 
Offline
Superstar
Superstar

Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:31 pm
Posts: 3094
Well, luckily for us it's a Thursday game and all the Thursday games thus far have been sloppy. Extremely sloppy. Now let's not get carried away. We have no chance to win, but I'm just hoping we can keep the Saints under 50. It'll be close.

Saints - 47
Falcons - 13

:down:


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Thursday Night Stinkfest
PostPosted: Thu Nov 21, 2013 10:21 am 
Offline
Hall of Famer
Hall of Famer
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jan 29, 2005 7:12 pm
Posts: 6149
Location: Planet Claire
:lol: Gonna be ugly, no doubt. First prize door drawing is free tickets to next Sunday's game. Second prize is tickets to all remaining games.

_________________
Image


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Thursday Night Stinkfest
PostPosted: Thu Nov 21, 2013 10:56 am 
Offline
Superstar
Superstar

Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:31 pm
Posts: 3094
Quote:
Gonna be ugly, no doubt


Roger that.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Thursday Night Stinkfest
PostPosted: Fri Nov 22, 2013 8:49 am 
Offline
Draught Guru
Draught Guru
User avatar

Joined: Mon Oct 01, 2007 7:32 am
Posts: 4910
Smitty does it again. 52-yard field goal try with just over two minutes left in the game? 17 to 13 with three timeouts left, and your decision is to give the ball back to Drew Brees at 17-16?

Once we get out of the first 15 scripted plays, were in trouble. This isn't an anomaly, it is now a pattern. :beef:

_________________
"what if there were no hypothetical situations?"


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Thursday Night Stinkfest
PostPosted: Fri Nov 22, 2013 11:02 am 
Offline
Purveyor of Truth & Justice
Purveyor of Truth & Justice
User avatar

Joined: Thu Dec 23, 2004 3:03 pm
Posts: 25773
Location: North Carolina
How do you know that Smitty's plan wasn't to kick the FG, and go for the onside? And if they didn't get the onside, they would have used all 3 TOs.

If you used Advanced NFL Stats cute stats 4th down calculator, going for it would be the right decision if you feel you have a 63% chance of converting. The league average was 19%, but there's good reason to believe the Falcons chances were much lower than that.

The Falcons have converted 2 of 16 opportunities where they had 15+ yards to go on 3rd/4th down this year. They had 3 opportunities in the Saints game in such situations, failed in all 3 of them. They averaged 6.7 yards gained on those 3 downs. The most yards they gained was an 11-yard pass to Roddy at the start of the second quarter.

From 2011-12, the Falcons had only converted 1 of 26 of those situations. That lone conversion was a 19-yard conversion from Redman to Julio on 3rd & 15 against the Jaguars in Week 15 in 2011.

From 2008-10, it was 7 of 44 times the Falcons got the conversion. So history suggests that the Falcons chances were about 11.6% of converting on 4th down. Matt Bryant has hit 6 straight 50+ yard kicks in the Georgia Dome, and made 15 straight kicks in the Georgia Dome. In fact, Bryant's only miss from beyond 45 in the Georgia Dome came on a blocked kick in 2009 vs. the Bills. Since then, he had connected on 13 of 13 field goals from beyond 45. So there's every reason for Smith to believe that Bryant's chances of making that kick were well-beyond the league average of 52%, but was up in the 80-90%.

_________________
"Vincere scis, Hannibal, victoria uti nescis" -- Maharbal, 216 B.C.E.


Top
 Profile E-mail  
 
 Post subject: Re: Thursday Night Stinkfest
PostPosted: Fri Nov 22, 2013 3:23 pm 
Offline
Draught Guru
Draught Guru
User avatar

Joined: Mon Oct 01, 2007 7:32 am
Posts: 4910
I will just say this: you dont give the ball back to Drew Brees, Tom Brady or Payton Manning with almost 2-3 minutes left and down by one. I care not a whit for cute stats, that is just common sense, right there. Plus, you are taking a huge gamble our special teams can recover the onside kick, and if not you just gave Brees the ball midfield.

I think you go for it, and even if you dont make the conversion, you could at least eat up some ground.

No sir. Bad decision, IMO. :snooty:


I don’t know what is more mind-numbingly awful. Mike Smith opting to kick a field goal down by four points with 2:24 left in a game, or the almost universal praise after the game that this was the right decision.

I can go about explaining it any number of ways, but this was a dreadful decision. Here is Mike Smith:


“There’s not a whole lot of fourth and 14′s. We had I believe it was around 2 minutes, 28 seconds, so we had a timeout before the two minute, use the two minute as a timeout, we were going to have an opportunity to get the ball back with the offense, only having to kick a field goal to win. Matt Bryant has kicked a lot of clutch field goals for us, and giving us an opportunity.”

The play was a 4th and 15. There have been 306 attempts on fourth down of between 13 and 17 yards going back to 1999. It’s not an insignificant number. This isn’t a rare case where teams never go for it in this situation at the end of the game. This would be the exact kind of situation where having someone with a sense of actual results in other games would help in decision making.

The NFL Network analysts, most of whom I believe were once competitors who must have had great belief in themselves, acted like this was an impossible feat. God forbid that a football team ever pick up 15 yards on a play by means of this forward pass.

Teams have converted 20.3% of fourth down attempts of between 13 and 17 yards (62 of 306). Let’s just call it 20%. Does that change your view of the call?

Here’s another number to compare it to: 24.8%

That’s the percentage of time that New Orleans has a first down with the ball, and fails to pick up another one. (via Football Outsiders Drive Stats)

Those numbers aren’t that different, but one is viewed as an impossibility, while the other is just glossed over and vastly overestimated. The payoffs, of course, are much different. Going for it and converting results in an outright touchdown sometimes (a quarter of all those long fourth down conversions actually scored on that play). Even when it doesn’t you are inside the red zone with a first down, and a favorite to score a touchdown with plenty of time to call any play.

Using the win probability estimator at Advanced NFL Stats, I estimate the chances of Atlanta winning based on choosing the long field goal at 9.8% (which accounts for the chances of a miss) and the odds of winning based on going for it at 15.7%.

That is a massive drop. It’s a fascinating decision because it combined a bunch of coaching logical fallacies into one giant crapola soup. Those include:
•SO YOU’RE SAYING THERE’S A CHANCE: Vastly underestimating the actual chances of converting a fourth down, even a long one;
•THE POINTS DON’T ALWAYS GET TAKEN: Overconfidence in the concept of field goal range and the likelihood of making a kick;
•ALL WE NEED IS A STOP: Coaches seem to make these decisions with the assumption that the stop is likely. Just look at Smith’s quote;
•THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ONE AND FOUR IS MASSIVE: Coaches overestimate the relative value of being down 1 versus 4, compared to outright having the lead versus still trailing. In reality, the difference between 1 and 4 is not nearly as great as having the lead.

Add all that up, and you get a coach that gives away a chance to take a lead, and opts to try to stay close and hope and pray that a bunch of other stuff goes right.

The Falcons missed the 52-yard field goal and lost.

http://thebiglead.com/2013/11/22/mike-s ... -the-game/

Image


_________________
"what if there were no hypothetical situations?"


Last edited by fun gus on Fri Nov 22, 2013 3:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Thursday Night Stinkfest
PostPosted: Fri Nov 22, 2013 3:31 pm 
Offline
Superstar
Superstar
User avatar

Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 4:54 pm
Posts: 1798
Location: Los Angeles California
I don't really care about the field goal [although I did raise an eyebrow] because the game was already over. With the Saints D-line crushing our O-line like they were school girls the past two plays, and them knowing that it was a throwing down for huge yards, we'd already lost it. We had no answer for the Saints on passing downs, period, and it was sickening.

_________________
"I am certainly not afraid to have Brian Finneran on the field. Has he ever not made plays? He just makes plays. He is one of those guys that just makes plays. He is dependable."

J. Mora JR.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Thursday Night Stinkfest
PostPosted: Fri Nov 22, 2013 3:41 pm 
Offline
Superstar
Superstar

Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:31 pm
Posts: 3094
Quote:
I don’t know what is more mind-numbingly awful. Mike Smith opting to kick a field goal down by four points with 2:24 left in a game, or the almost universal praise after the game that this was the right decision.


If you have a problem with everybody, maybe your the problem. :P


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Thursday Night Stinkfest
PostPosted: Fri Nov 22, 2013 3:43 pm 
Offline
Superstar
Superstar

Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:31 pm
Posts: 3094
Quote:
The Falcons missed the 52-yard field goal and lost.


And when the Falcons don't make their 4th down and forever, the Saints still get the ball back in just about the same field position.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Thursday Night Stinkfest
PostPosted: Fri Nov 22, 2013 3:47 pm 
Offline
Draught Guru
Draught Guru
User avatar

Joined: Mon Oct 01, 2007 7:32 am
Posts: 4910
AngryJohnny51 wrote:
Quote:
The Falcons missed the 52-yard field goal and lost.


And when the Falcons don't make their 4th down and forever, the Saints still get the ball back in just about the same field position.



"Using the win probability estimator at Advanced NFL Stats, I estimate the chances of Atlanta winning based on choosing the long field goal at 9.8% (which accounts for the chances of a miss) and the odds of winning based on going for it at 15.7%."

:whistle: :snooty:

Maybe Smitty was doing a 'Fake for Jake'? Going soft like Downey for Clowney? :mrgreen:

Brings up an interesting debate I had with my crew last night. Which would have been the better outcome? Smeaking one out against the Saints, or getting the #3 pick?

I chose not to go to anymore games this year, but if I was there, I would have wanted the 'win'. I cannot say I'm dissapointed in the loss. Just dissapointed in Smitty's late game call, again. :ninja:

_________________
"what if there were no hypothetical situations?"


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Thursday Night Stinkfest
PostPosted: Fri Nov 22, 2013 3:53 pm 
Offline
Hall of Famer
Hall of Famer
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jan 29, 2005 7:12 pm
Posts: 6149
Location: Planet Claire
FG is too used to seeing teams convert 4 and 15+ against us. With real NFL defenses it doesn't happen much. :oops:

_________________
Image


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Thursday Night Stinkfest
PostPosted: Fri Nov 22, 2013 3:54 pm 
Offline
Draught Guru
Draught Guru
User avatar

Joined: Mon Oct 01, 2007 7:32 am
Posts: 4910
backnblack wrote:
FG is too used to seeing teams convert 4 and 15+ against us. With real NFL defenses it doesn't happen much. :oops:


:lol: :up:

'Adventuretime!'

_________________
"what if there were no hypothetical situations?"


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Thursday Night Stinkfest
PostPosted: Fri Nov 22, 2013 3:56 pm 
Offline
Superstar
Superstar

Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:31 pm
Posts: 3094
fun gus wrote:
AngryJohnny51 wrote:
Quote:
The Falcons missed the 52-yard field goal and lost.


And when the Falcons don't make their 4th down and forever, the Saints still get the ball back in just about the same field position.



"Using the win probability estimator at Advanced NFL Stats, I estimate the chances of Atlanta winning based on choosing the long field goal at 9.8% (which accounts for the chances of a miss) and the odds of winning based on going for it at 15.7%."

:whistle: :snooty:



I'm going to guess that 15.7% is assuming we went for it and actually got the first down. And even if we went for it and did get the first down, there is no promise that we were going to get a TD anyways.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Thursday Night Stinkfest
PostPosted: Fri Nov 22, 2013 5:24 pm 
Offline
Superstar
Superstar

Joined: Tue Jan 10, 2006 3:15 pm
Posts: 4191
I obviously have an agenda against Smith, but the field goal there was the right call. That brings us to within one point, and all we have to do to win the game is get the ball back and get in field goal range. Ryan is quite good at getting us in field goal range.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Thursday Night Stinkfest
PostPosted: Fri Nov 22, 2013 7:15 pm 
Offline
Draught Guru
Draught Guru
User avatar

Joined: Mon Oct 01, 2007 7:32 am
Posts: 4910
Okay, I do see y'alls point. And to some extent, I agree going for the FG was good 'fundamental' football.

I guess my reaction was due to the situation: playing at home, down by 4, against our bitter division rival ( who is playoff bound) and being 2-8. In that case, I would have 'gone for it'. Were probably going to lose either way, but I would have liked to have lost with Matt Ryan instead of Matt Bryant. But I do 'see' the philosophy.

Remember when the Saints won thier SB? They did an onside kick to open the second half. The played 'aggressive,high risk' football and they accomplished something we have yet to do. So when I see 'Smittyball' in this case, it drove me a little nuts. I think had we gone for it, and won the game, it would have polished the turd that is this season. If we had made the FG, got the onside kick, and won it that way, it still would have polished that turd, but it would have felt a little different.

At this point, beating the Saints at home would have been a bright spot in a dismal season. To lose it, even in a way that 'makes sense', hurts a little. But, I do see the reasoning. Im just saying at this point, why not? Go for it! Balls out! :dance: :doh:

_________________
"what if there were no hypothetical situations?"


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Thursday Night Stinkfest
PostPosted: Fri Nov 22, 2013 7:57 pm 
Offline
Superstar
Superstar
User avatar

Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2007 3:51 pm
Posts: 4861
Location: New York
Funny how everyone remains to be so critical, when they actually put up a fight and stayed competitive. The loss hurts a bit, but still proud of the way they competed. Actually didn't get blown out for the first time in a month.

_________________
Image

R.I.P 2013 season


Top
 Profile E-mail  
 
 Post subject: Re: Thursday Night Stinkfest
PostPosted: Fri Nov 22, 2013 8:20 pm 
Offline
Superstar
Superstar

Joined: Tue Jan 10, 2006 3:15 pm
Posts: 4191
Well, Smith isn't a balls out coach, he's the opposite of that. Which again, is part of my belief that he's not a good game day coach. I'm not a fan of going balls out, but I do think that you need to have some element of surprise in your game plan to give you a competitive advantage. We don't seem to believe in competitive advantage. The loss to the Bucs was as much about getting out-coached as it was getting outplayed. We got our butts kicked because their coach decided to try some things. We rarely seem to try anything, and when we do, it's because our backs are against the wall, and everyone knows what's coming. We're 2-8. Why not open the game with an onside kick? Why not expand our restrictions on going for it on fourth down? Why not run a trick play every now and then? (have we ever had a RB throw a pass?)


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Thursday Night Stinkfest
PostPosted: Fri Nov 22, 2013 8:40 pm 
Offline
Hall of Famer
Hall of Famer
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jan 29, 2005 7:12 pm
Posts: 6149
Location: Planet Claire
We've lost a few games to the Saints by Smitty playing from more of an emotional stance than logical with various short yardage attempts. It was probably pretty sound thinking. The miss just makes it look worse. We had our chances to win that one which, As E says, is more than can be said of the past few weeks. It was good to see the guys show up for a change and play with some pride. It was also good to see them stick with the run a little longer.

_________________
Image


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Thursday Night Stinkfest
PostPosted: Fri Nov 22, 2013 11:52 pm 
Offline
Superstar
Superstar

Joined: Sat Jan 29, 2005 8:57 pm
Posts: 4475
Quote:
I obviously have an agenda against Smith, but the field goal there was the right call. That brings us to within one point, and all we have to do to win the game is get the ball back and get in field goal range. Ryan is quite good at getting us in field goal range.



GREAT POST!! The reason is we had a better chance of stopping the Saints than making a 4th
and 20 play. Its a shame Bryant missed; we were not going to make that play with the Saints knowing what they had to stop, with the game on the line.

_________________
"Everything Counts"
Cyril


Image


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Thursday Night Stinkfest
PostPosted: Sat Nov 23, 2013 6:35 pm 
Offline
Purveyor of Truth & Justice
Purveyor of Truth & Justice
User avatar

Joined: Thu Dec 23, 2004 3:03 pm
Posts: 25773
Location: North Carolina
AngryJohnny51 wrote:
I'm going to guess that 15.7% is assuming we went for it and actually got the first down. And even if we went for it and did get the first down, there is no promise that we were going to get a TD anyways.

Using Advanced NFL Stats 4th down calculator, I think the more accurate numbers are 9% and 12%. So closer than he estimates. Also that is based off the NFL averages, which as I illustrated before that in that scenario, the Falcons offense is below average and Matt Bryant is above average. Which probably makes the gap between the two numbers even smaller.

I get people being critical of Smitty not being aggressive in that situation. But there's a difference between saying:

"Given the circumstances of the game and this season, I would have preferred that Smitty went with the aggressive play call and go for it on 4th down rather than going for the field goal, and thus I'm disappointed."

than

"Smitty is an idiot for kicking the field goal. Clearly, going for it is the far superior strategy."

Because it's not. Bnb is joking, but I think the Jason Lisks and Bill Barnwells of the world that are clearly critical of this decision aren't considering things that are specific to Atlanta, rather just thinking more in generalities.

The scenario where you'd make the conservative call and kick the FG really is basically the situation where the Falcons had where you have 3 TOs, a very accurate kicker, and a struggling offense that has struggled mightily to generate 15+ yd plays.

I don't think anybody that knows the Falcons specifically can fault Smitty for having more confidence in his kicker than his offense at that point in time.

_________________
"Vincere scis, Hannibal, victoria uti nescis" -- Maharbal, 216 B.C.E.


Top
 Profile E-mail  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 20 posts ] 

All times are UTC - 4 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 1 guest


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Jump to: