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 Post subject: Re: according to Marty McDonald...
PostPosted: Sat Nov 02, 2013 2:50 am 
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I think Tony knows what 12-14 million will buy!! Most of us don't!! I even think he's learned how not to take big hits!!

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 Post subject: Re: according to Marty McDonald...
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2013 3:26 am 
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Pudge wrote:
I only illustrated 1 year for the sake of brevity (see, I'm trying). I think you go and do the research yourself, you'd realize that picking high varies from class to class. Frankly, if you look over the past decade, you might discover that picking 11th is the best position to be in Round 1 since there have been 5 likely/potential HOFers taken at that spot in the past 12 drafts, with only 2 real busts (Leodis McKelvin, who is currently a starting CB in the NFL so not huge bust and Aaron Maybin). The 5 I'm referring to are Freeney (2002), Roethlisberger (2004), DeMarcus Ware (2005), Willis (2007), and J.J. Watt (2011).

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/

As for confidence in TD, I do have the utmost confidence in him taking in the Top 5. Besides reaching a round on Jerry, I really have no complaints about any of TD's first round picks. Sam Baker included. As I explained to Emmitt in the latest podcast episode, the problem wasn't the selection of Baker. That made perfect sense at the time. The mistake was giving him that extension.

I've never thought TD was a bad GM, nor do I really think he's done a bad job. By and large he's an above average GM, and again I think his record overall is a strong indicator that he's one of the 10 best GMs in the league. The issue I have is that I think that the overall picture is greatly influenced by his early success, which has overshadowed some of his recent failures. As well as the fact that certain areas of this roster have failed to improve significantly over the course of his tenure because of a questionable draft strategy which IMO has overly focused on need as opposed to upside. IMO, early on he was 100% right to focus on need because that is what is needed to get a team out of the cellar, but as time has gone on I think he needs to shift more to a best player available strategy to get top-end players that will take this team from a mid-level talented team (which I believe the Falcons are) to one that is at the upper end of the scale because instead of being a team with 6 or 7 really good players, you now are a team with 10 or 12 really good players. And in conjunction to the Julio Jones trade which took away draft picks, you have to hit more "doubles" and "triples" with the picks you retained rather than the "singles" he was aiming for.

To use another baseball analogy, TD is a good lead-off hitter because he'll consistently get on base. But now we're deeper in the lineup, and we need some power.


Lots of words, but not allot of logic as to why we kept Tony... with that said, I have rethought my own position, and now believe Tony will be back next year and that's why we kept him. His contract was for 2 years, he will be in the shape to do it physically, he can extend his records, and if we don't keep our current training staff, we should have a shot at being a top team again next year.

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 Post subject: Re: according to Marty McDonald...
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2013 9:29 am 
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DaveWaz wrote:
Pudge wrote:
I only illustrated 1 year for the sake of brevity (see, I'm trying). I think you go and do the research yourself, you'd realize that picking high varies from class to class. Frankly, if you look over the past decade, you might discover that picking 11th is the best position to be in Round 1 since there have been 5 likely/potential HOFers taken at that spot in the past 12 drafts, with only 2 real busts (Leodis McKelvin, who is currently a starting CB in the NFL so not huge bust and Aaron Maybin). The 5 I'm referring to are Freeney (2002), Roethlisberger (2004), DeMarcus Ware (2005), Willis (2007), and J.J. Watt (2011).

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/

As for confidence in TD, I do have the utmost confidence in him taking in the Top 5. Besides reaching a round on Jerry, I really have no complaints about any of TD's first round picks. Sam Baker included. As I explained to Emmitt in the latest podcast episode, the problem wasn't the selection of Baker. That made perfect sense at the time. The mistake was giving him that extension.

I've never thought TD was a bad GM, nor do I really think he's done a bad job. By and large he's an above average GM, and again I think his record overall is a strong indicator that he's one of the 10 best GMs in the league. The issue I have is that I think that the overall picture is greatly influenced by his early success, which has overshadowed some of his recent failures. As well as the fact that certain areas of this roster have failed to improve significantly over the course of his tenure because of a questionable draft strategy which IMO has overly focused on need as opposed to upside. IMO, early on he was 100% right to focus on need because that is what is needed to get a team out of the cellar, but as time has gone on I think he needs to shift more to a best player available strategy to get top-end players that will take this team from a mid-level talented team (which I believe the Falcons are) to one that is at the upper end of the scale because instead of being a team with 6 or 7 really good players, you now are a team with 10 or 12 really good players. And in conjunction to the Julio Jones trade which took away draft picks, you have to hit more "doubles" and "triples" with the picks you retained rather than the "singles" he was aiming for.

To use another baseball analogy, TD is a good lead-off hitter because he'll consistently get on base. But now we're deeper in the lineup, and we need some power.


Lots of words, but not allot of logic as to why we kept Tony... with that said, I have rethought my own position, and now believe Tony will be back next year and that's why we kept him. His contract was for 2 years, he will be in the shape to do it physically, he can extend his records, and if we don't keep our current training staff, we should have a shot at being a top team again next year.



Mr Gonzalez has cultivated 3 things for himself post football. By this time next year, he will be a paid schill for some natural food/vitamin stuff. He will also start being a commentator. And I predict ( Like Jamie Dukes ) he will join the NFL Network as a regional talking head on a pregame broadcast show. most likely in K.C.

But to think he is going to starp on pads again, is my friend, delusional.

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 Post subject: Re: according to Marty McDonald...
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2013 10:18 am 
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The logic why we kept Tony is the same as I stated. Without Tony, this offense is probably down there with Jacksonville as the worst in the NFL.

The Falcons aren't giving up on the season because the Falcons understand that losing games isn't going to significantly improve their roster. They can try to win every game and still finish picking 5th or 6th overall, rather than losing on purpose and finishing 3rd or whatever.

An extra 5th round pick isn't worth going 2-14 or 3-13 this year. When you go 2-14, someone is getting fired. Would you risk your job for a 5th round pick, a player that has an 88% chance of being a backup?

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 Post subject: Re: according to Marty McDonald...
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2013 10:33 am 
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Pudge wrote:
When you go 2-14, someone is getting fired.



yeah, not so much. If we were to go 2-14, perhaps one of our 'coordinators' will jump ship (see BVG and Mularkey ) but we cannot fire the Dynamic Duo.

after all, they are the best we have ever had, right? 8-)

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 Post subject: Re: according to Marty McDonald...
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2013 10:58 am 
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I'm not Arthur Blank. He's going to fire somebody if we go 2-14.

The only way you can convince Blank it's OK to go 2-14 is if you can somehow convince him that you're guaranteed to get a franchise-changing player, which you cannot do in December. Maybe the Falcons get Clowney, but maybe they don't. And maybe CLowney is just Julius Peppers as opposed to Reggie White. Maybe the Falcons get Anthony Barr, maybe they don't. Maybe Barr is Von Miller, or maybe's Barkevious Mingo.

Maybe the Falcons pick 6th, but some QB-needy team picking between 10-15 trades up with them and they get an extra 2nd round pick that turns into LaMarr Woodley, Jairus Byrd, Lamarr Houston, or Daryl Washington (all mid-2nd round picks).

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 Post subject: Re: according to Marty McDonald...
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2013 11:15 am 
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Pudge wrote:
I'm not Arthur Blank. He's going to fire somebody if we go 2-14.



the cognitive dissonance is staggering.

I have been told numerous times, no matter what occurs this season, TD and Smitty ( the dynamic duo ) are 'safe'. Also, I have been told that if Blank were to fire one of them, nobody else would condsider coming here, because who would want to work for him? He just fired one of the 'guys' who turned this dumpster fire around.

I am telling you , right now, that 2-14 is NOT as ridiculous as it seems. I guess we will see today if were *cough cough* competetive...

If we go 2-14 here how it goes down. Smith and TD, along with Mularkey, get's a 'pass' due to 'injury'.

Then Nolan jumps ship to greener pastures, Blank comes out like it was 'his idea', we get a new DC next year and the beat goes on...

That's how it goes down. :down:

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 Post subject: Re: according to Marty McDonald...
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2013 11:19 am 
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fun gus wrote:
Pudge wrote:
I'm not Arthur Blank. He's going to fire somebody if we go 2-14.



the cognitive dissonance is staggering.

I have been told numerous times, no matter what occurs this season, TD and Smitty ( the dynamic duo ) are 'safe'. Also, I have been told that if Blank were to fire one of them, nobody else would condsider coming here, because who would want to work for him? He just fired one of the 'guys' who turned this dumpster fire around.

I am telling you , right now, that 2-14 is NOT as ridiculous as it seems. I guess we will see today if were *cough cough* competetive...

If we go 2-14 here how it goes down. Smith and TD, along with Mularkey, get's a 'pass' due to 'injury'.

Then Nolan jumps ship to greener pastures, Blank comes out like it was 'his idea', we get a new DC next year and the beat goes on...

That's how it goes down. :down:



As striking as it may seem, that's probably closer to how it will really happen than what anyone can ever give you credit for. Book that scenario for this off season.

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 Post subject: Re: according to Marty McDonald...
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2013 11:34 am 
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fun gus wrote:
the cognitive dissonance is staggering.

I have been told numerous times, no matter what occurs this season, TD and Smitty ( the dynamic duo ) are 'safe'. Also, I have been told that if Blank were to fire one of them, nobody else would condsider coming here, because who would want to work for him? He just fired one of the 'guys' who turned this dumpster fire around.

I challenge you to find a post where I said anything along those lines.

When I talk about the Falcons keeping Smitty, it's about what I would do, not what Arthur Blank would do. If the Falcons finish 2-14 and don't have a major Matt Ryan injury to blame, then frankly I'll understand why he'd opt to let go of the coach and/or GM.

I told Emmitt in the lost podcast that we recorded earlier this week, that if the Falcons play like they did vs. the Cardinals more often than not the rest of the way, then by year's end, I may not fully agree with the decision to fire Mike Smith, but I would certainly understand it and probably wouldn't raise much of any stink to criticize that decision.

It's a fact in the NFL that if you win 0, 1, or 2 games, you lose your job. You might be able to get away with a 3-13 season as an NFL head coach, but more often that not that only comes when you're a rebuilding team, not a team that was expected to be potentially 13-3. Frankly, I think the Smitty has to go 6-10 to be assured of keeping his job.

Changes are definitely coming this off-season if the Falcons have a losing season. Maybe if they go 7-9 then Blank might be able to let things go and say injuries cost the team 3 or 4 games this year. But given that looks like a huge reach at this point, changes are a'coming.

http://falcfans.com/takeaways-from-week-8-9299

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 Post subject: Re: according to Marty McDonald...
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2013 11:52 am 
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" If you call me making an endless litany of excuses for Mike Smith, sure I'll cop to that. I'm a pro-Mike Smith guy."

:mrgreen: :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: according to Marty McDonald...
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2013 12:26 pm 
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And at one point did Arthur Blank get factored into that previous statement?

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 Post subject: Re: according to Marty McDonald...
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2013 12:34 pm 
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Pudge wrote:
And at one point did Arthur Blank get factored into that previous statement?



just jerkin yer chain, Pudge :P

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 Post subject: Re: according to Marty McDonald...
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2013 1:54 pm 
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fun gus wrote:
Pudge wrote:
I'm not Arthur Blank. He's going to fire somebody if we go 2-14.



the cognitive dissonance is staggering.

I have been told numerous times, no matter what occurs this season, TD and Smitty ( the dynamic duo ) are 'safe'. Also, I have been told that if Blank were to fire one of them, nobody else would condsider coming here, because who would want to work for him? He just fired one of the 'guys' who turned this dumpster fire around.

I am telling you , right now, that 2-14 is NOT as ridiculous as it seems. I guess we will see today if were *cough cough* competetive...

If we go 2-14 here how it goes down. Smith and TD, along with Mularkey, get's a 'pass' due to 'injury'.

Then Nolan jumps ship to greener pastures, Blank comes out like it was 'his idea', we get a new DC next year and the beat goes on...

That's how it goes down. :down:

This is exactly what I expect to happen as well. That said, if we go 2-14, I think that the SMART thing to do would be to fire one of the big two.

We're in this mess for one of two reasons... 1. Bad drafting. 2. Bad player development. Injuries happen, but the truth is that the injuries haven't killed us. A wide receiver, a line backer, and a defensive end aren't the end-all, be-all of this football team. If losing 3 players kills a team, that team isn't very good to begin with. For a while now, Pudge has been saying that we need better depth at WR. For a while now, I've been saying that we need better talent and more depth on the offensive and defensive lines. Our front office either has not recognized these needs, or has willfully ignored them.

This last off-season was the worst of this regime so far. Losing Abraham and acquiring Osi was a lateral move. Having Biermann as our #2 DE with a bunch of scrubs behind him was asking for trouble. If we had kept Abe, losing Biermann wouldn't have been as big of a deal.

We then gave up Grimes and Robinson. We replaced the two of them with our first two picks in the draft. This was our biggest mistake. Why in the world are we using our top two draft picks on cornerbacks when we have so many other issues on the team? There were other CB's available in free agency. We didn't have to go into an all youth movement in the secondary.

We let Clabo and McClure go. We didn't pick up ANYONE to replace them. We decided to let a bunch of unknown commodities start. This is ineptitude at its finest. Our lines have been pretty crappy for at least the last three years. We thought that the guys who backed up those crappy lines were going to be an improvement?

This front office has been sitting on its hands this year. They either went into the season knowing that we were doomed, or they are not capable of evaluating themselves and their players. Someone should go. More importantly, someone should be brought in who will tell it like it is, and shake up the fantasy land that our front office has been living in.


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 Post subject: Re: according to Marty McDonald...
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2013 7:21 pm 
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fun gus wrote:
[
I am telling you , right now, that 2-14 is NOT as ridiculous as it seems. I guess we will see today if were *cough cough* competetive..:


who will own up?#badfan

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 Post subject: Re: according to Marty McDonald...
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2013 8:29 pm 
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We are in the situation because all of our best players are hurt, we will be much better next year just by getting the guys we already have back. Put that together with some high draft pics and we are a playoff team again. We need to fire our training staff as they have done a horrible job. Smith and Tom D get another chance, and if next year is anything like this one than they go too.

By the way I'm hoping for 2-14 as opposed to 5-11 as it benefits us more in the long run. Your losing record the year before means nothing the following year. Look at the Chiefs.

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 Post subject: Re: according to Marty McDonald...
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2013 11:19 pm 
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DaveWaz wrote:
By the way I'm hoping for 2-14 as opposed to 5-11 as it benefits us more in the long run. Your losing record the year before means nothing the following year. Look at the Chiefs.



SHHHH!!!! :ninja:


#competitive :roll:

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 Post subject: Re: according to Marty McDonald...
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2013 11:28 pm 
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Help a dinosaur out....what's all the # about?

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 Post subject: Re: according to Marty McDonald...
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2013 11:36 pm 
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backnblack wrote:
Help a dinosaur out....what's all the # about?



It's called a 'hash-tag'..normally, it would lead to a REAL Twitter account, or some other such sh*t...

but on here, it is simply 'sarcasm'. :ninja:

for instance, Emmitt has a problem with FunGus = #CrankyYankee

Or perhaps Pudge would think Im oversensitive to injuries, so his Hashtag would be

#tiredofthisannoyingcracker

BnB your 'hash tag' would be more like this

#whyhehatinGrimetime?

It is still kinda new to me. :mrgreen:

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 Post subject: Re: according to Marty McDonald...
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2013 11:52 pm 
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I guess I have gotten that but I don't really get how it works. Knew it was Twitter related. Maybe mine should be #somewhatindifferentLuddite

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 Post subject: Re: according to Marty McDonald...
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2013 11:58 pm 
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backnblack wrote:
I guess I have gotten that but I don't really get how it works. Knew it was Twitter related. Maybe mine should be #somewhatindifferentLuddite



oh, we could have alot of fun with ther hashtags....Im almost certain Pudge has three for me already loaded... :lol:

for you, BnB I would make #onthefence, becuase you usually are right down the middle...

For Pudge, I would have #well,duh

RAP=#firesmitty

Cyril=#Manifestdestiny

and so on :mrgreen: :ninja:

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 Post subject: Re: according to Marty McDonald...
PostPosted: Mon Nov 04, 2013 12:13 am 
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I hear ya. Yeah, I'm pretty easy to persuade or unpersuade. Where does being objective end and standing for nothing and falling for anything begin? With each passing year the world seems grayer and less black and white to me.

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 Post subject: Re: according to Marty McDonald...
PostPosted: Mon Nov 04, 2013 12:44 am 
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RobertAP = #dumbmfer


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 Post subject: Re: according to Marty McDonald...
PostPosted: Mon Nov 04, 2013 12:47 am 
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RobertAP wrote:
RobertAP = #dumbmfer

:lol:

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 Post subject: Re: according to Marty McDonald...
PostPosted: Mon Nov 04, 2013 12:57 pm 
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Thanks guys, this whole hashtag back and forth really perked up my mood this morning. :lol:

RobertAP wrote:
This last off-season was the worst of this regime so far.

Disagree. 2012 was their worst off-season. Keeping Turner/Not cutting Turner's salary was by far the worst move this front office has ever made. The OL has improved these past 2 weeks, arguably having played better than we've seen the OL play in 2 years.

Yes, the decision to replace Abe with Osi was a bad move. I agree, the Falcons should have signed a veteran stopgap CB, thus freeing them up to draft some DL help. But they didn't. And if Trufant and Alford become Jason McCourty & Alterraun Verner, it'll be worth it. The Falcons need to add talent PERIOD, and if those players both become Top 20 corners, then that's adding talent, and thus mission accomplished.

DaveWaz wrote:
We are in the situation because all of our best players are hurt, we will be much better next year just by getting the guys we already have back. Put that together with some high draft pics and we are a playoff team again.

This is likely. Law of averages says the Falcons won't be crushed by injuries next year. But what if they are? The 2 main issues the Falcons are going to have to address this off-season are:

1- Does the front office shift gears and go into "reloading" mode.
2- Does ownership show the patience to let them do that.

It's going to be interesting 3-5 years from now how we'll be looking back at this 2013 season. Already looks like my prediction from last year, that the 2012 would be our best shot, is coming true though. I don't have any predictions right now on this 2013 season. It's all going to depend on Arthur Blank...

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