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 Post subject: Falcons Have 3 More Wins Left on Schedule
PostPosted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 4:55 pm 
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I looked at this back in January, talking about correlations and how stats correlate to winning (in the regular season). Finally crunched the numbers going back to 2008 and seeing how certain rushing and passing stats correlate to winning.

And discovered that the stat that correlates the best to winning is point differential. Surprise, surprise. The correlation coefficient is 0.916. The closer something is to 1.0 or -1.0, the stronger the correlation. Next best is Pro Football Reference's Adjusted Net Yards Per Pass Attempt (ANYA) differential. That stat basically subtracts sack yards from pass yards and counts each touchdown as worthy of 20 yards and every interception a penalty of -45 yards. And looking at the differential between offensive ANYA vs. defensive ANYA is 0.835. That's slightly better than passer rating differential, which is 0.821.

So looking at this year's current teams in terms of their point differential and ANYA differential, the Falcons are middle of the pack ranking 17th and 14th respectively. When you look at the remaining teams on the schedule and see where they rank in those categories, you see only 3 games where the Falcons are playing significantly inferior teams:

DEFINITE WINS
Week 8 - at Arizona (26th in Point differential, 28th in ANYA differential)
Week 11 - at Tampa Bay (29th, 30th)
Week 15 - Washington (27th, 25th)

POSSIBLE WINS
Week 13 - at Buffalo (19th, 18th)

DEFINITE LOSSES
Week 9 - at Carolina (5th, 5th)
Week 10 - Seattle (3rd, 1st)
Week 12 - New Orleans (4th, 2nd)
Week 14 - at Green Bay (9th, 10th)
Week 16 - at San Francisco (8th, 6th)
Week 17 - Carolina (5th, 5th)

Obviously nothing is etched in stone and we'll see whether the Falcons get better/worse in the coming weeks to make some of those losses more competitive games.

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 Post subject: Re: Falcons Have 3 More Wins Left on Schedule
PostPosted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 9:29 pm 
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Carolina has improved a lot this year, but that's insane to say those are definite losses. That offense still struggles at time and that secondary stinks. They are beatable, it's just a matter of controlling Cam and not allowing pressure every other snap. Two tall orders, but it can be done.

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 Post subject: Re: Falcons Have 3 More Wins Left on Schedule
PostPosted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 9:52 pm 
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What Emmit said, Carolina's nothing special, we'll probably split, also I think we'll upset someone else, giving us 5 more wins and a 7-9 final record. :cry:

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 Post subject: Re: Falcons Have 3 More Wins Left on Schedule
PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 9:02 am 
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My only hopes for the rest of the season are that the Falcons don't stink so bad and the game against Green Bay doesn't get flexed down from Sunday night. The Sunday night game just always feels special. They can't take that away from US!

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 Post subject: Re: Falcons Have 3 More Wins Left on Schedule
PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 10:36 am 
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Barring a major injury occurring for the Panthers, they are going to beat us.

Their Achilles heel was their secondary and our receivers ability to exploit it. Those receivers are gone, and Ryan won't have the time to find them.

Osi is gonna have a rude awakening when he plays Cam.

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 Post subject: Re: Falcons Have 3 More Wins Left on Schedule
PostPosted: Thu Oct 24, 2013 1:57 am 
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Carolina is nothing special; but we may be a little below that. Does Newton still run? Then forget about it.

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 Post subject: Re: Falcons Have 3 More Wins Left on Schedule
PostPosted: Sun Oct 27, 2013 8:03 pm 
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Pudge, you now need to adjust that to 1 more win on the schedule, against Tampa Bay, and really that is only a 'Possible Win'

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 Post subject: Re: Falcons Have 3 More Wins Left on Schedule
PostPosted: Sun Oct 27, 2013 10:06 pm 
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It's after the Arizona game, so its not a definite win (:

We lost all 4 quarters with Ryan throwing 4 interceptions and I think we averaged 1 yard per
rushing attempt.

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