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 Post subject: Note to Mike Smith
PostPosted: Mon Oct 07, 2013 10:56 pm 
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You cannot depend on your offensive line. Please stop doing so.


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 Post subject: Re: Note to Mike Smith
PostPosted: Mon Oct 07, 2013 11:01 pm 
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Right?

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 Post subject: Re: Note to Mike Smith
PostPosted: Mon Oct 07, 2013 11:27 pm 
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You would have thought he would have learned from last week, but nope. What is the definition again of an insane person, someone who keeps doing the same thing expecting a different result? Also, why not run the smallest guy on the field into the middle of the stacked Jets line! Awesome call! Seriously, this stupidity was bailed out by that PI call and he STILL went for it instead of taking and easy 3 and being down a TD. Talk about utter desperation. Nothing like letting the other team see you blink, or in the Falcons case, affirm that we know we won't make you punt all game so we better score touchdowns.

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 Post subject: Re: Note to Mike Smith
PostPosted: Mon Oct 07, 2013 11:53 pm 
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Sooooooo terrible. Sooo terrible. Ter-ri-ble. God awful. Horrific. Putrid. Season-endingly bad.

Who gets sacrificed for letting this be the case?


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 Post subject: Re: Note to Mike Smith
PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 12:35 am 
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Smith has lost it, kicking the field goal in the first half is the only logical call. Two weeks in a row, retarded decisions. No reason to lose this game, other than Mike proving he has more balls than brains. So disgusted.

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 Post subject: Re: Note to Mike Smith
PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 12:45 am 
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DaveWaz wrote:
Smith has lost it, kicking the field goal in the first half is the only logical call. Two weeks in a row, retarded decisions. No reason to lose this game, other than Mike proving he has more balls than brains. So disgusted.

I'm glad someone else sees it.

I know that it worked out for us, but the smart move with 4:00 left on the clock was to kick the field goal and hope for another defensive stop. They showed a fan on TV saying, "why aren't we kicking a field goal?" (At least that's what my lip reading skills told me)

Smith lost this game for us. Sure, the guys on the field could have done a better job, but when the coach takes points off the board, something is horribly wrong.


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 Post subject: Re: Note to Mike Smith
PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 2:20 am 
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Not kicking the field goal at the end of the half was crazy. If Atlanta kicks that FG they have a 4-point advantage and the Jets have to score a TD not a FG.

At the end of the game what really killed us was a piss-poor attempt at defense. The Falcon D made some big stops in the 2nd half but when it mattered the most they couldn't stop anything the Jets threw at them.

The fact that Geno Smith had a damn near perfect game passing is a disgrace.

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 Post subject: Re: Note to Mike Smith
PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 8:01 am 
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samedi wrote:
Sooooooo terrible. Sooo terrible. Ter-ri-ble. God awful. Horrific. Putrid. Season-endingly bad.

Who gets sacrificed for letting this be the case?



no. sacred. cows.

"Mike Smith is the best coach the Falcons have ever had! Thomas Dimitroff has twice won GM of the Year"

#skinniestkidatfatcamp :ninja:

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 Post subject: Re: Note to Mike Smith
PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 9:03 am 
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You can't have it both ways. Seems to me like there was a lot of talk recently about the Falcons being conservative and lacking that killer instinct.

Smith gets aggressive and fails and now it's all about we should have taken the 3 instead of going for the 7. :whistle:

That being said, if I was coaching, I would have kicked the FG.


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 Post subject: Re: Note to Mike Smith
PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 9:14 am 
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Mike Smith is an average coach, at best. No other team fears his scheming or game planning. If the Falcons employed a dynamic coach, such as Sean Payton, this team would incredibly different. I'm done watching this team until something major changes. My vote is to make Nolan or Koetter the interim coach and get a head start on next season. Use the s***ty record to build the lines. This year is pretty near a loss at this point.

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 Post subject: Re: Note to Mike Smith
PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 12:10 pm 
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It does speak volumes that the Saints go into the s*** can the year they lose Payton but as soon as he comes back they are undefeated and look like the best team in the NFC.

Of course the Saints also have better talent and have a better history of maximizing their drafts and FA signings overall.

Atlanta may need to look at some wholesale changes. The Falcons went all in for this season and with the ship sinking and unlikely to be repaired the team will see 3 of their top players likely retire in the next year or two (Gonzo, White, Jackson). On defense you have plenty of players with low tread (Osi, Samuel, Babs).

I suppose the positive is that Atlanta is young overall with some good pieces.

By losing this season and the gamble the Falcons are pretty much stuck with the aging parts they plugged in to get over the hump and failed.

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 Post subject: Re: Note to Mike Smith
PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 1:02 pm 
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dirtybirdnw wrote:
Not kicking the field goal at the end of the half was crazy

The Falcons have been plagued with not scoring TDs in the red zone. Smitty opts to go for it at the end of the 1st half because settling for a FG means that the Falcons still are not scoring TDs in the red zone. Now that doesn't make it the right call, but it's a completely rational decision to make in that regard.

dirtybirdnw wrote:
If Atlanta kicks that FG they have a 4-point advantage and the Jets have to score a TD not a FG.

No. Because if the Falcons kick the FG and it's 17-10 at the half, and the 3rd and 4th quarters go as they did (which wouldn't have been the case as quantum mechanics tell us, but let's for this moment assume that they did) then...

Falcons score at outset of 3rd quarter, it's now 17-17. Jets score again end of the 3rd, and it's 20-17. And then score again at start of the 4th, so now its 27-17. Then Falcons score again, now its 27-24. Falcons get stop and then instead of going for it on 4th & 1 at the 18 with 4:15, they settle for a FG. It's now tied 27-27. And then it's anybody's guess as to how the last 4 minutes play out.

Now maybe the Falcons get a stop and in the final 2 minutes they get the ball and go down the field for a game-winning FG or score. But at the end of the day, the same variables apply: the Falcons defense has to get a stop in the final 2-4 minutes of the game. Kicking at the end of the half doesn't change that.

RobertAP wrote:
I know that it worked out for us, but the smart move with 4:00 left on the clock was to kick the field goal and hope for another defensive stop. They showed a fan on TV saying, "why aren't we kicking a field goal?" (At least that's what my lip reading skills told me)

Smith lost this game for us. Sure, the guys on the field could have done a better job, but when the coach takes points off the board, something is horribly wrong.

You're wrong. The Falcons had a 19% chance of winning the game going into that 4th down decision. Cutting the lead by 3 does nothing to improve their win probability. As if the Jets start the following drive at their own 20 following a kickoff, they still have an 80% chance of winning (thus Falcons only increase their chances of winning from 19 to 20%). But if the Falcons convert as they did, they practically double their chances of winning. Their win probability shot up to 41% after the conversion. And let's say they went for it, but failed. They still would have increased their chances of winning to 22% even if the Jets took over at their own 14. Because backed up in their territory that deep in the game, it's more likely the Jets will be conservative and play field position with a 6-point lead, and punt, giving the Falcons another scoring opportunity to win the game with under 2 minutes remaining.

Look it up for yourself...

http://wp.advancednflstats.com/4thdncalc1.php

http://wp.advancednflstats.com/winprobcalc1.php

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 Post subject: Re: Note to Mike Smith
PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 1:10 pm 
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Pudge wrote:
Here I come to save the day!...

The Voice of Reason.


You are just better at separating fan passion/rage from reason as you should since you effectively cover the Falcons.

I'm allowed to be irrational. :up:

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 Post subject: Re: Note to Mike Smith
PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 1:21 pm 
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If the refs hadn't helped us out with a phantom call, we'd all be talking about how stupid of a call that was by Smith as well. Keep defending him though. He's not the coach we need, but he is the coach we deserve.


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 Post subject: Re: Note to Mike Smith
PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 1:45 pm 
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dirtybirdnw wrote:
You are just better at separating fan passion/rage from reason as you should since you effectively cover the Falcons.

I'm allowed to be irrational.

Of course you are. But the fact that you recognize that you're being irrational, actually makes you very rational. It's the people that don't realize it that are the scary ones. Crazy people don't think they're crazy, they think everybody else is crazy for calling them crazy.

RobertAP wrote:
If the refs hadn't helped us out with a phantom call, we'd all be talking about how stupid of a call that was by Smith as well

You're right about getting the benefit of a phantom call by the refs. And you're probably right in going for it would be what we'd be talking about.

But then as it is now, we'd be wrong for blaming that as the reason. Whether it's kicking the FG at the end of the 1st half, the facts are unchanged the Falcons have to make a defensive stop. If they go for it on 4th down and fail (as should have been the case), the Falcons have to make a defensive stop. If they kick the FG and are now down by 3 the Falcons have to make a defensive stop. If they kicked the earlier FG, and then settled for a FG on 4th down, the Falcons have to make a defensive stop.

There seems to be a trend emerging here...

Now many of you (*cough* fun gus *cough*) will accuse me of making an endless litany excuses for Mike Smith. But the simple truth here is I'm not saying that you shouldn't criticize Mike Smith's decisions. As the head coach of the team, he's fair game. I'm trying to stop you from blaming him for losing the game. The Falcons didn't lose the game because Mike Smith made poor decisions. Did it potentially contribute to the loss? Sure. But so did the Falcons inability to run in short-yardage (3 of 9 conversions), so did field position that gifted the Jets the ball 3 times in Falcons territory to start drives, and basically led to 13 easy points, so did the defense's inability to get pressure without resorting to blitzes, play-calling, and a litany of other things that occurred that are to blame for costing the Falcons the game.

But it's much easier to blame Mike Smith for losing the game, because we as fans are very quick to scapegoat, but very slow to actually sit back and actually think rationally about things. Because many of you aren't even considering both sides of the coin/argument, and merely visiting the possibility that you could be wrong. You simply are thinking, "I would have done it differently than Mike Smith, therefore I'm right and Mike Smith is wrong."

Here's a lesson on how to think rationally for you guys that are failing miserably at doing so. The best way to do so is take the opinion that you disagree with, and put yourself in those shoes and assume they made the right decision. And then look for reasons to justify why they made that decision. And if you can find those reasons, then you're previously held black/white viewpoint is shattered. Because you are faced with the unfathomable reality that occasionally you are wrong from time to time.


:shock:




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 Post subject: Re: Note to Mike Smith
PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 2:19 pm 
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dirtybirdnw wrote:
Pudge wrote:
Here I come to save the day!...

The Voice of Reason.


You are just better at separating fan passion/rage from reason as you should since you effectively cover the Falcons.

I'm allowed to be irrational. :up:

Can anyone name anyone in the world who covers them better than A. Freeman? Seriously. Well done, Pudge. :clap:

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 Post subject: Re: Note to Mike Smith
PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 2:29 pm 
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Pudge wrote:
dirtybirdnw wrote:
You are just better at separating fan passion/rage from reason as you should since you effectively cover the Falcons.

I'm allowed to be irrational.

Of course you are. But the fact that you recognize that you're being irrational, actually makes you very rational. It's the people that don't realize it that are the scary ones. Crazy people don't think they're crazy, they think everybody else is crazy for calling them crazy.


Indeed, I also don't have a detailed understanding of pro or college football to make anything other than somewhat uneducated opinions with the information I have at hand.

While I will complain about Smith going for it at the end of the half and not taking the points I will defend his decision to go for it at the end of the game which made sense to me in that situation. I would (almost) always take points in the 1st half.

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 Post subject: Re: Note to Mike Smith
PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 4:07 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: Note to Mike Smith
PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 5:06 pm 
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Pudge wrote:
Here I come to save the day!...

The Voice of Reason.

dirtybirdnw wrote:
Not kicking the field goal at the end of the half was crazy

The Falcons have been plagued with not scoring TDs in the red zone. Smitty opts to go for it at the end of the 1st half because settling for a FG means that the Falcons still are not scoring TDs in the red zone. Now that doesn't make it the right call, but it's a completely rational decision to make in that regard.

dirtybirdnw wrote:
If Atlanta kicks that FG they have a 4-point advantage and the Jets have to score a TD not a FG.

No. Because if the Falcons kick the FG and it's 17-10 at the half, and the 3rd and 4th quarters go as they did (which wouldn't have been the case as quantum mechanics tell us, but let's for this moment assume that they did) then...

Falcons score at outset of 3rd quarter, it's now 17-17. Jets score again end of the 3rd, and it's 20-17. And then score again at start of the 4th, so now its 27-17. Then Falcons score again, now its 27-24. Falcons get stop and then instead of going for it on 4th & 1 at the 18 with 4:15, they settle for a FG. It's now tied 27-27. And then it's anybody's guess as to how the last 4 minutes play out.

Now maybe the Falcons get a stop and in the final 2 minutes they get the ball and go down the field for a game-winning FG or score. But at the end of the day, the same variables apply: the Falcons defense has to get a stop in the final 2-4 minutes of the game. Kicking at the end of the half doesn't change that.

RobertAP wrote:
I know that it worked out for us, but the smart move with 4:00 left on the clock was to kick the field goal and hope for another defensive stop. They showed a fan on TV saying, "why aren't we kicking a field goal?" (At least that's what my lip reading skills told me)

Smith lost this game for us. Sure, the guys on the field could have done a better job, but when the coach takes points off the board, something is horribly wrong.

You're wrong. The Falcons had a 19% chance of winning the game going into that 4th down decision. Cutting the lead by 3 does nothing to improve their win probability. As if the Jets start the following drive at their own 20 following a kickoff, they still have an 80% chance of winning (thus Falcons only increase their chances of winning from 19 to 20%). But if the Falcons convert as they did, they practically double their chances of winning. Their win probability shot up to 41% after the conversion. And let's say they went for it, but failed. They still would have increased their chances of winning to 22% even if the Jets took over at their own 14. Because backed up in their territory that deep in the game, it's more likely the Jets will be conservative and play field position with a 6-point lead, and punt, giving the Falcons another scoring opportunity to win the game with under 2 minutes remaining.

Look it up for yourself...

http://wp.advancednflstats.com/4thdncalc1.php

http://wp.advancednflstats.com/winprobcalc1.php


This is neither logical nor well thought out. With 4 minutes to go we kick a field goal and it's tied, then the Jets get the ball with the two minute warning and the Falcons having two time outs yet. This would have left us in a far better position then giving the Jets a win or go to overtime scenario. If the Jets score to quickly we get a chance to tie (likely), also the Jets would be more likely to run time, and run more conservative plays which fits are defense better.

Also stating that going for a TD to prove a point rather that taking sure points is just poor decision making.

We went with a 15% chance of 7 points, vs. a 99% chance of 3 points in the first half of a game. A pop warner coach would easily say this is stupid.

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 Post subject: Re: Note to Mike Smith
PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 5:43 pm 
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I think the failure to agree here is that we're looking at the decisions one by one rather than looking at the whole body of work. Mike Smith blew multiple calls here, not one or two. On top of blowing the point calls, he also blew his clock management. Once the Jets were in field goal range, we should have started using our timeouts. It does not matter that they got first downs, negating any timeouts. The timeouts would have given us a better chance of doing something had we stopped them. Instead, we left the game with two timeouts going unused. We didn't even try to ice their kicker. I'm sure that you could make the argument that Smith is psychic and knew that we wouldn't get any stops, and that their kicker would make the field goal, regardless of what we did. Smith sucks. This isn't new this year. I was pointing out how flawed Smith was last year when he made multiple bone headed decisions. Thankfully, we were able to overcome most of those stupid decisions last year. This year, we're not.

And again, it's really hard for me to say that it is all Dimitroff's fault that our talent hasn't developed. Smith and company have to take responsibility for some of that as well.


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 Post subject: Re: Note to Mike Smith
PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 8:58 pm 
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DaveWaz wrote:
This is neither logical nor well thought out. With 4 minutes to go we kick a field goal and it's tied, then the Jets get the ball with the two minute warning and the Falcons having two time outs yet. This would have left us in a far better position then giving the Jets a win or go to overtime scenario. If the Jets score to quickly we get a chance to tie (likely), also the Jets would be more likely to run time, and run more conservative plays which fits are defense better.

Also stating that going for a TD to prove a point rather that taking sure points is just poor decision making.

We went with a 15% chance of 7 points, vs. a 99% chance of 3 points in the first half of a game. A pop warner coach would easily say this is stupid.

Talk about illogical, when are the Falcons going to get a better opportunity to score than when they are at the Jets 18 yard line? You're saying that have a higher probability of getting both a defensive stop and scoring within 4 minutes (likely on a 60+ yard drive) than converting 1 yard at their opponent's 18 yard line?

You're reaching. Again, you may not have agreed with the decision to go for it at that point, but don't act like Mike Smith is wrong or crazy for thinking that it gave the Falcons a better chance.

A 15% of scoring 7 points? Where are you pulling that number from? Based off average success rate, the Falcons had a 68% chance of converting that 4th & 1 at the end of the 2nd half. As Advanced NFL Stats 4th down calculator shows, the only reason to kick the field goal is if you believe you only have a 33% of conversion. At that point in the game, the Falcons had converted 50% of their 1-yard to go situations running the football. So...

Now, if you're saying that Smitty should be more conservative in those situations, and always take the points. That's fine. I don't necessarily agree with you, but I won't fault you for that sort of philosophy. But again, I'm not going to fault the guy when he figures he has a 50% chance of 7, or a 100% chance of 3, and he opts to go for 7. Neither should you.

RobertAP wrote:
On top of blowing the point calls, he also blew his clock management. Once the Jets were in field goal range, we should have started using our timeouts. It does not matter that they got first downs, negating any timeouts. The timeouts would have given us a better chance of doing something had we stopped them.

Are you referring to the end of the game?

Wrong again. When should the Falcons have called a TO, when the Jets were at the 38-yard line with 37 seconds left? That's a 55-yard field goal. Sure, that's within a makeable range, but you have a 40% chance of making a kick from that distance.

On the next play, the Jets got 4 yards. Now it's a 51-yard field goal. Should he have called a TO then? OK maybe, but guess what the Jets did. Now 31 seconds on the clock.

Then they run the screen to Gates for 3 yards. Now it's a 48-yard field goal. But again, the Jets called TO. Now just 25 seconds on the clock. I'm trying to figure out where Smitty should have called a TO and mismanaged the clock.

Now its 3rd & 3 at the 31-yard line, Powell runs up the middle for 6 yards because Babs whiffs. And you're basically arguing that Smitty shouldn't have let the clock bleed down to 3 seconds, which he did. So apparently you're ripping him because he didn't call a TO that could have left potentially 19 seconds on the clock. Then after the Jets kick the FG, it's likely 13-15 seconds left on the clock.

Is it possible for the Falcons to score with that much time on the clock? Yes. They did it vs. Chicago in 2008. But they got a squib kick from the Bears that gave them the ball at midfield. That, coupled with a blown assignment that gave up a 26-yard completion. It was a pair of fluke plays where poor decision by Lovie Smith gifted the Falcons 30-35 yards of field position on a squib, and Mike Brown blowing a coverage gifted them another 20-25. The odds that you are gifted that again, is extremely low. And without those 60 yards, you stand almost zero chance.

Should Smitty had called the TO in that situation? Sure, there's always a slim chance. But don't act like he had poor clock management and that cost the Falcons the game.

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 Post subject: Re: Note to Mike Smith
PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 9:20 pm 
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Smith is inept at managing the team on game day. I can go back to most of the games this year, and many of the games last year and show you how he made mistakes that made it more difficult for us to win. Those decisions, by themselves, don't cost us the game, but every time he makes one of these boneheaded decisions, it is up to the players to bail him out. The players shouldn't have to overcome the other team AND our head coach. The coach should be an asset.

I'm not saying that he never makes good calls. I'm saying that there are too many bad calls.


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 Post subject: Re: Note to Mike Smith
PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 10:52 pm 
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RobertAP wrote:
Smith is inept at managing the team on game day. I can go back to most of the games this year, and many of the games last year and show you how he made mistakes that made it more difficult for us to win. Those decisions, by themselves, don't cost us the game, but every time he makes one of these boneheaded decisions, it is up to the players to bail him out. The players shouldn't have to overcome the other team AND our head coach. The coach should be an asset.

I'm not saying that he never makes good calls. I'm saying that there are too many bad calls.

BS. You can go back to those other games, but I refuted your claims then too. Here's how it goes:

Sunday afternoon: Mike Smith makes a questionable decision
Sunday Night: RobertAP posts about how Mike Smith's decision cost them the game
Monday morning: Pudge responds that says Mike Smith's decision didn't cost them the game, and was nearly as terrible a decision as RobertAP says.
Monday afternoon: RobertAP attempts feebly to make a counterargument of why Smith's decision was definitely terrible.
Monday afternoon: PUdge responds with a counterargument to Robert's counterargument of why he's wrong.
Monday night: RobertAP give up and says something along the lines of regardless of the specific example, there is an entire body of work of bad Smitty decisions that he's basing his negative opinion on.

But there isn't that body of work. There's a body of work of bad decisions according to RobertAP that in reality aren't so bad. In fact, several of them are in fact good decisions (see his clock management in the NFC Championship game).

We'v been through this song and dance before. All you have to do is search keywords like "Smitty" "4th down" and "decision" and you'll find several threads over the past few years where there have been questions about Smitty's decision making.

Here are several:

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=14512&start=0
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=16350&start=0
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=16378&start=0
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=17742&start=0
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=17751&start=0

In your mind RobertAP (and like-minded individuals), there are dozens of times over the years in that Smitty's game-day management has been bad or questionable. The truth is that rarely are Smitty's decisions ever questioned until the Falcons lose. And over the past 4 years, the Falcons have lost 19 times, so there's probably 20 or so times where fans on this forum have taken his decisions to task. But the other truth is that in the majority of those instances (probably 60-75% of the time), most of those "grievances" others had were overblown. Decisions that were so-called "game-killing" or "terrible" or "no-brainers" weren't really that at all just as Smitty's decisions this year haven't been. And over the course of 50+ games, where you can really only find a half dozen instances where the "coach screwed us!" that is an acceptable number.

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 Post subject: Re: Note to Mike Smith
PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 10:55 pm 
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Pudge couldn't be more right. Kudos to you for having the interest in speaking facts to the forum's most negative poster. I wish I had the patience to. Smith has made some questionable calls, but you were the same people praising him for years now about always being aggressive and making the right adjustments if something wasn't right.

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 Post subject: Re: Note to Mike Smith
PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 11:43 pm 
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You guys obviously don't see what I see. Give it time, people are starting to come around. I always tend to see these things long before everyone else. Call it a gift, or call it negativity. I have a knack for seeing that which others don't want to see.

Smith's conservative, no-nonsense approach to football has gotten us respectable. However, he's not the guy who's going to get us a Super Bowl win.

And Emmitt, I was one of the people over the past few weeks to say that the sky was not falling. Just because I call it like I see it doesn't mean that I'm strictly negative. I do my darndest to be objective. When other teams' fans are saying, "please keep Mike Smith as long as possible," that should tell you that there's an issue. I'm sorry that you don't see it.


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