It is currently Wed Oct 22, 2014 10:50 pm

All times are UTC - 4 hours [ DST ]





Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 5 posts ] 
Author Message
 Post subject: The best defense is a good offense?
PostPosted: Mon Sep 09, 2013 4:10 pm 
Offline
Superstar
Superstar

Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:31 pm
Posts: 3173
With offense on the rise and defense on the decline in the NFL, what do you think the league will look like in 10 years?

In 2003, in the first week of the season, There were only 2 QB's who threw for 300+ yards and 5 RB's who rushed for 100+.

In the opening weekend of 2013, with two games still yet to be played, 10 QB's passed for 300+ yards and two of those were over 400+ yards. Only 1 RB ran for over 100 and that was in New England of all places.

As we all know. the NFL is cyclical by nature. Do defenses catch up in the next 10 years.....or is the pansy-fying of the league here to stay? What do you think the box score will be reading in 2023?


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The best defense is a good offense?
PostPosted: Mon Sep 09, 2013 7:54 pm 
Offline
Superstar
Superstar

Joined: Tue Jan 10, 2006 3:15 pm
Posts: 4303
What's happening now isn't really cyclic. What has happened is that the rules have changed to make passing more friendly. That said, I believe that there will continue to be a run/pass balance. Where that balance shakes out over the next several years will be interesting to see. However, I also don't see 5000 yard passing seasons to become the new standard. I believe you will see one, perhaps two QBs hitting that 5000 yard mark on a yearly basis, but I do not see the runaway that happened in 2011. I believe that 2011 was an anomaly.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The best defense is a good offense?
PostPosted: Mon Sep 09, 2013 8:16 pm 
Offline
Purveyor of Truth & Justice
Purveyor of Truth & Justice
User avatar

Joined: Thu Dec 23, 2004 3:03 pm
Posts: 26018
Location: North Carolina
I don't think it an anamoly at all. Yes there will always be running in the NFL. But the trend is going to continue downward for how much that it. Just in the last 5 years ago, the average NFL team ran the ball 44.6% of the time. Last year it was 42.3%. I think in another 5 years, it will be 40% or slightly below. In 10 years, it might be 37-38%. It probably bottoms out right there, as I think there will always be a premium on running in the NFL, more so than it is at lower levels and lesser leagues, but I think the trend is going to be tempo and more passing in the coming years. MOre plays, more throws.

I think the inevitable 6000 yard passing season happens at some point. Some Top 5 QB at some point in the near future is going to throw the ball 750 times in a season and break that mark.

You're always going to have the haves and the have nots in the NFL. We have more good QBs in the league today than we probably have ever had in NFL history, yet there are still half the teams in the NFL that most believe are in need of a good QB. Some of these teams (see Vikings, Jaguars, Raiders) will have defensive-minded coaches and have their best offensive player be a RB like Peterson, MJD, or McFadden and still run the ball a lot, which will be the "balance" to the league as a whole.

You have head coaches that are in their 40s and 50s (and older) that had their "formative years" of football in the 80s and 90s, where the league was still a "running league." Frankly, the league only really became a passing league in the late 90s/early 2000s. But by formative years, I'm referring of course to the years in which these coaches not only played football, but also began as graduate assistants and assistants on various coaching staffs. But you have teams hiring younger coaches in their 30s that will have had their formative years come when the league was populated by Rich Gannon, Kurt Warner, Peyton Manning, and Matt Stafford. And they will very much believe in slingin' it.

_________________
"Vincere scis, Hannibal, victoria uti nescis" -- Maharbal, 216 B.C.E.


Top
 Profile E-mail  
 
 Post subject: Re: The best defense is a good offense?
PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2013 1:09 am 
Offline
Superstar
Superstar

Joined: Sat Jan 29, 2005 8:57 pm
Posts: 4638
I'll throw in the running Qb is here to stay I think. The best coaches will MAKE them go out of bounds; but Frisco, Seattle, Green Bay and others want more of an athlete that
can pass & run, with the pass being the most important. Kids seeing this may start trying to play Qb like this as early as high school and a trend is born.

_________________
"Everything Counts"
Cyril


Image


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The best defense is a good offense?
PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2013 12:55 pm 
Offline
Superstar
Superstar

Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:31 pm
Posts: 3173
Good points fella's. I guess a big part of it too will be how much more the NFL legislates defense/hitting out of the game. Offense is great, but I don't want to start seeing 52-48 games every week either where the last one who has the ball wins.


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 5 posts ] 

All times are UTC - 4 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 1 guest


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Jump to:  


cron