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 Post subject: Re: Superbowl or bust it is
PostPosted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 8:58 pm 
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fun gus wrote:
RobertAP wrote:
Let's take a look at our drafts under Dimitroff
1st year
Matt Ryan - Star
Sam Baker - solid starter
Curtis Lofton - gone
Chevis Jackson - Bust
Harry Douglas - career backup
Thomas Decoud - pro-bowler
Robert James - nothing
Kroy Biermann - below average starter/backup
Thomas Brown - nothing
Wilrey Fontnot - nothing
Keith Zinger - nothing

2nd year
Peria Jerry - Bust
William Moore - pro-bowler
Christopher Owens - gone
Lawrence Sidbury - nothing
William Middleton - nothing
Garrett Reynolds - career backup
Spencer Adkins - career backup
Vance Walker - career backup

3rd year
Sean Weatherspoon - solid starter (possible pro-bowler)
Corey Peters - below average starter
Mike Johnson - nothing
Joe Hawley - nothing
Dominique Franks - nothing
Kerry Meier - nothing
Shann Schillinger - nothing

4th year
Julio Jones - Star (and he better be... Cost us 2 firsts, a second, and two fourth rounders.)
Akeem Dent - below average starter
Jacquizz Rodgers - apparent career backup/situational player (I happen to think the kid has talent, but TD apparently doesn't have much confidence in him)
Matt Bosher - solid punter
Andrew Jackson - nothing
Cliff Matthews - nothing

5th year
Peter Konz - below average starter playing out of position (might be playing in position this year, so we'll see)
Lamar Holmes - ?
Bradie Ewing - ?
Jonathan Massaquoi - ?
Charles Mitchell - ?
Travian Robinson - ?



Aside from his first draft, Dimitroff has managed to get one or two decent players from each of his drafts. I am curious how other teams have fared over the same time period, but from where I'm standing, this is not the makings of a stellar team. The success of this team is largely due to the guy throwing the ball. Good on Dimitroff for drafting him, but outside of that move, the rest of this looks pretty meh.

This draft, he's started out by taking a couple of CBs who he reached to get... The first round pick was a 2nd round talent, and the 2nd round pick was a 3rd round talent. Dimitroff is not as great as some of you think. I used to like the man, but as time has gone on, his decisions have gotten worse and worse.

Superbowl or bust! (cause we're not going to be going anywhere after this year)



from the afmb:

Every player Thomas Dimitroff has drafted since 2009 in rounds 5-7 is still in the league.That's nothing short of ridiculous, and too good to be a fluke.

In 2009
William Middleton, CB, 5th round, Jacksonville Jaguars - has seen action in 49 games since being drafted, and has started 12. Current starting nickelback for the Jags.
Garrett Reynolds, OG, 5th round, Atlanta Falcons - currently penciled in as the starter at RG in 2012. Has improved greatly since being drafted, impressing even me, his harshest critic, because I absolutely hated him in 2011. In 2012, he was a great interior pass blocker and improved his run blocking dramatically.
Spencer Adkins, LB, 6th round, Baltimore Ravens - largely a special teamer, having seen action in 24 games and started 1.
Vance Walker, DT, 7th round, Oakland Raiders - saw action all 16 games of every season as a Falcon except for 2009, where he was there for 10. Starter 11 of them. 5 sacks over the last two years and probably tied with Babs for our most consistent defensive tackle last year. Currently projected to start for the Raiders - and they're so comfortable with him as a starter that they only drafted one defensive tackle in the 2013 draft, and it was in the 6th round.

In 2010
Dominique Franks, CB, 5th round, Atlanta Falcons - not a big fan of his, but you can't deny that he's come a long way. Has played in 32 games as a Falcon, starting 4 of them, with 3 interceptions and 8 PDs, and was our (admittedly bad) return guy last year. That's good value in the fifth round.
Kerry Meier, WR, 5th round, Atlanta Falcons - well, I'm sorry to say it, but he was only cut 5 days ago, and that technically makes him qualify. Has played in 12 games in 2011, but is a ghost on the statsheet. But he's probably da future.
Shann Schillinger, S, 6th round, Atlanta Falcons - good special teamer, albeit that's all he'll probably ever be. Has played in 31 games as a Falcon. Rounds out the 2nd worst late-round draft of TD's career, the first being 2008.

In 2011
Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, 5th round, Atlanta Falcons - ...does he really need an introduction? Fan favorite and one of my personal favorites, to the point where I actually made a highlight video of his on Youtube, where it has in 3 months accrued 22K+ views and 115 likes with no dislikes. That's right, even Saints fans can't downvote him. Has played in all 32 games as a Falcon with almost 1200 total yards, not counting yards from scrimmage as our kick returner. People wanted him over Turner as a starter, and with Jackson, people are confident his numbers will go up even further. 4 TDs in his career and a straight beast in the clutch - something numbers can't quite measure.
Matt Bosher, P, 6th round, Atlanta Falcons - someone who was once an inside joke has turned into a pretty freaking good punter, and apparently someone the staff sees as having potential as a kicker as well. His leg started shaky, but it's a lot easier to be confident in him now. Obviously a starter every game he's played, and handles kickoff duties as well. What I like most? He makes ST tackles.
Andrew Jackson, OG, 7th round, Buffalo Bills - sadly, that's where his resume ends. Hasn't really done much yet, but he's still on a roster.
Cliff Matthews, DE, 7th round, Atlanta Falcons - has failed to impress so far, though he's been involved in 10 games. He was in the rotation more this year, but I can't say I love him.

In 2012
Bradie Ewing, FB, 5th round, Atlanta Falcons - injured last year, but I like him a lot. Reminds me of Kuhn. Option as a receiver as well as a blocker, and expected to start this year.
Jonathan Massequoi, DE, 5th round, Atlanta Falcons - a joke he was even available here, if you ask me. He was a monster in 2010 and was forced into a role he didn't fit for 2011, yet still played well enough to earn 3rd round grades from Mayock and most other draft experts. I still have confidence he might eventually start, and until then, he's rotational depth I can feel very comfortable with. 8 games played so far as a Falcon.
Charles Mitchell, S, 6th round, Atlanta Falcons - played in 10 games last year as a good ST player and a pretty smooth looking safety. Freakish athlete who could have starting potential if not behind the great safeties we already have. And we add to that this year...loving it.
Travian Robertson, DT, 7th round, Atlanta Falcons - played in 7 games last year, starting none of them, but impressing people enough on these boards for us to declare him an eventual starter. Funnily enough, I'm tempted to agree. His tape doesn't agree with the fact that he slid to the 7th. Steal, and someone we'll see a lot more of this year.



And now, in 2013, we add four new players. Stansly Maponga, Kemal Ishmael, Zeke Motta, and Sean Renfree. So much depth in this draft - if it was the 2012 draft, Maponga would be a second round pick. Motta with a better 40 is a 3rd round pick, even in this draft. Renfree is mad underrated. And Ishmael, while not getting much love here, is possibly even better than Motta - a freak athlete with a nose for the ball that stood out in UCF games a lot. Really, watch him. Watch all of these guys.

I personally see this draft as being deeper than the 2009 draft - and in the 2009 draft, three of the guys became starters, with one still on a team as depth. Four years from now, could we be looking at Renfree, Maponga, Ishmael, and Motta, talking about them as starters? Wouldn't even surprise me at this point.


The Universe just shivered. I agree 100% with a Fun Gus post. I feel dirty.

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 Post subject: Re: Superbowl or bust it is
PostPosted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 9:18 pm 
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Cyril, Mularkey was fine for Ryan in his first year. But Mularkey started holding Ryan back in year 2. Mularkey came out and said that he was simplifying the offense in year 2. He scaled back the playbook. He didn't need to scale things back for Ryan. It has been stated that we might have simplified things because we brought in Gonzo and that Gonzo was going to have to learn our system. In any case, it's bollocks. Mularkey was holding back Ryan's development. Perhaps he wasn't confident in Ryan's ability to do things; Perhaps he was a run-first coordinator; Whatever the case was, Mularkey was no good for Ryan after his rookie year. Ryan is a special talent, and we should have been building our offense around him. Instead, we built the offense around Turner, and for the next three years, Ryan was not able to grow.

I am starting another paragraph here to again concede that Mularkey was GOOD for Ryan in his rookie year. The run-heavy offense took a lot of pressure off of the rookie QB. After his rookie year, not so much.


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 Post subject: Re: Superbowl or bust it is
PostPosted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 9:32 pm 
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Wease wrote:
fun gus wrote:
RobertAP wrote:
Let's take a look at our drafts under Dimitroff
1st year
Matt Ryan - Star
Sam Baker - solid starter
Curtis Lofton - gone
Chevis Jackson - Bust
Harry Douglas - career backup
Thomas Decoud - pro-bowler
Robert James - nothing
Kroy Biermann - below average starter/backup
Thomas Brown - nothing
Wilrey Fontnot - nothing
Keith Zinger - nothing

2nd year
Peria Jerry - Bust
William Moore - pro-bowler
Christopher Owens - gone
Lawrence Sidbury - nothing
William Middleton - nothing
Garrett Reynolds - career backup
Spencer Adkins - career backup
Vance Walker - career backup

3rd year
Sean Weatherspoon - solid starter (possible pro-bowler)
Corey Peters - below average starter
Mike Johnson - nothing
Joe Hawley - nothing
Dominique Franks - nothing
Kerry Meier - nothing
Shann Schillinger - nothing

4th year
Julio Jones - Star (and he better be... Cost us 2 firsts, a second, and two fourth rounders.)
Akeem Dent - below average starter
Jacquizz Rodgers - apparent career backup/situational player (I happen to think the kid has talent, but TD apparently doesn't have much confidence in him)
Matt Bosher - solid punter
Andrew Jackson - nothing
Cliff Matthews - nothing

5th year
Peter Konz - below average starter playing out of position (might be playing in position this year, so we'll see)
Lamar Holmes - ?
Bradie Ewing - ?
Jonathan Massaquoi - ?
Charles Mitchell - ?
Travian Robinson - ?



Aside from his first draft, Dimitroff has managed to get one or two decent players from each of his drafts. I am curious how other teams have fared over the same time period, but from where I'm standing, this is not the makings of a stellar team. The success of this team is largely due to the guy throwing the ball. Good on Dimitroff for drafting him, but outside of that move, the rest of this looks pretty meh.

This draft, he's started out by taking a couple of CBs who he reached to get... The first round pick was a 2nd round talent, and the 2nd round pick was a 3rd round talent. Dimitroff is not as great as some of you think. I used to like the man, but as time has gone on, his decisions have gotten worse and worse.

Superbowl or bust! (cause we're not going to be going anywhere after this year)



from the afmb:

Every player Thomas Dimitroff has drafted since 2009 in rounds 5-7 is still in the league.That's nothing short of ridiculous, and too good to be a fluke.

In 2009
William Middleton, CB, 5th round, Jacksonville Jaguars - has seen action in 49 games since being drafted, and has started 12. Current starting nickelback for the Jags.
Garrett Reynolds, OG, 5th round, Atlanta Falcons - currently penciled in as the starter at RG in 2012. Has improved greatly since being drafted, impressing even me, his harshest critic, because I absolutely hated him in 2011. In 2012, he was a great interior pass blocker and improved his run blocking dramatically.
Spencer Adkins, LB, 6th round, Baltimore Ravens - largely a special teamer, having seen action in 24 games and started 1.
Vance Walker, DT, 7th round, Oakland Raiders - saw action all 16 games of every season as a Falcon except for 2009, where he was there for 10. Starter 11 of them. 5 sacks over the last two years and probably tied with Babs for our most consistent defensive tackle last year. Currently projected to start for the Raiders - and they're so comfortable with him as a starter that they only drafted one defensive tackle in the 2013 draft, and it was in the 6th round.

In 2010
Dominique Franks, CB, 5th round, Atlanta Falcons - not a big fan of his, but you can't deny that he's come a long way. Has played in 32 games as a Falcon, starting 4 of them, with 3 interceptions and 8 PDs, and was our (admittedly bad) return guy last year. That's good value in the fifth round.
Kerry Meier, WR, 5th round, Atlanta Falcons - well, I'm sorry to say it, but he was only cut 5 days ago, and that technically makes him qualify. Has played in 12 games in 2011, but is a ghost on the statsheet. But he's probably da future.
Shann Schillinger, S, 6th round, Atlanta Falcons - good special teamer, albeit that's all he'll probably ever be. Has played in 31 games as a Falcon. Rounds out the 2nd worst late-round draft of TD's career, the first being 2008.

In 2011
Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, 5th round, Atlanta Falcons - ...does he really need an introduction? Fan favorite and one of my personal favorites, to the point where I actually made a highlight video of his on Youtube, where it has in 3 months accrued 22K+ views and 115 likes with no dislikes. That's right, even Saints fans can't downvote him. Has played in all 32 games as a Falcon with almost 1200 total yards, not counting yards from scrimmage as our kick returner. People wanted him over Turner as a starter, and with Jackson, people are confident his numbers will go up even further. 4 TDs in his career and a straight beast in the clutch - something numbers can't quite measure.
Matt Bosher, P, 6th round, Atlanta Falcons - someone who was once an inside joke has turned into a pretty freaking good punter, and apparently someone the staff sees as having potential as a kicker as well. His leg started shaky, but it's a lot easier to be confident in him now. Obviously a starter every game he's played, and handles kickoff duties as well. What I like most? He makes ST tackles.
Andrew Jackson, OG, 7th round, Buffalo Bills - sadly, that's where his resume ends. Hasn't really done much yet, but he's still on a roster.
Cliff Matthews, DE, 7th round, Atlanta Falcons - has failed to impress so far, though he's been involved in 10 games. He was in the rotation more this year, but I can't say I love him.

In 2012
Bradie Ewing, FB, 5th round, Atlanta Falcons - injured last year, but I like him a lot. Reminds me of Kuhn. Option as a receiver as well as a blocker, and expected to start this year.
Jonathan Massequoi, DE, 5th round, Atlanta Falcons - a joke he was even available here, if you ask me. He was a monster in 2010 and was forced into a role he didn't fit for 2011, yet still played well enough to earn 3rd round grades from Mayock and most other draft experts. I still have confidence he might eventually start, and until then, he's rotational depth I can feel very comfortable with. 8 games played so far as a Falcon.
Charles Mitchell, S, 6th round, Atlanta Falcons - played in 10 games last year as a good ST player and a pretty smooth looking safety. Freakish athlete who could have starting potential if not behind the great safeties we already have. And we add to that this year...loving it.
Travian Robertson, DT, 7th round, Atlanta Falcons - played in 7 games last year, starting none of them, but impressing people enough on these boards for us to declare him an eventual starter. Funnily enough, I'm tempted to agree. His tape doesn't agree with the fact that he slid to the 7th. Steal, and someone we'll see a lot more of this year.



And now, in 2013, we add four new players. Stansly Maponga, Kemal Ishmael, Zeke Motta, and Sean Renfree. So much depth in this draft - if it was the 2012 draft, Maponga would be a second round pick. Motta with a better 40 is a 3rd round pick, even in this draft. Renfree is mad underrated. And Ishmael, while not getting much love here, is possibly even better than Motta - a freak athlete with a nose for the ball that stood out in UCF games a lot. Really, watch him. Watch all of these guys.

I personally see this draft as being deeper than the 2009 draft - and in the 2009 draft, three of the guys became starters, with one still on a team as depth. Four years from now, could we be looking at Renfree, Maponga, Ishmael, and Motta, talking about them as starters? Wouldn't even surprise me at this point.


The Universe just shivered. I agree 100% with a Fun Gus post. I feel dirty.



and to think I got some of that info from the Roost and from the AFMB. :up:

Oh, sweet sweet Irony.

I think your good buddy in Germany just got a Woody. A Dantzler, in fact :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Superbowl or bust it is
PostPosted: Tue Apr 30, 2013 7:01 pm 
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Cyril wrote:
OK PUDGE I WILL----YOU MATT RYAN APOLOGIST!! However I am too!! (:

I stick up for him every chance I can except he's not near great!! NOT YET!!

HE'S THE BEST QB THE FALCONS have ever had; but he's not great yet.....

Look, if you don't believe Ryan is great then that's your prerogative. I just think you should stop lumping Ryan's 2012 postseason performance in with his previous ones. Ryan was outstanding this past January, and if you only look at his turnovers as an indicator that he wasn't, then you're just focusing on 5 plays and completely ignoring the other 75.

I also think your perception of greatness does not match the reality. I think those really outstanding postseason performances do happen, but they happen so sporadically. Look Flacco was great this past January. But I'd bet good money that he could play another 7 years in the league and never have a repeat of it. Just like Brady hasn't had one of those types of Januaries since 2004. Let's say that 4 years from now, Matt Ryan has one of those Januaries and the Falcons win a title. Until then, we get a mix of good or mediocre performances. Will then 4 years from now, Ryan achieve greatness? Probably in most eyes. I think he's reached that point currently, it's just the other factors around him haven't coalesced to make it work.

I just don't see much difference between Matt Ryan today and Dan Marino at pretty much any point in his career. Look, I'm comparing their overall careers (Marino's 17 years vs. Ryan's 5), just saying look at Ryan's 2012 season and take any one of Marino's 17 seasons, and I think you'd be hard-pressed to see a lot of difference.

Does that mean that Ryan is going to continue to have 5 more years like 2012 or 12 more years like it? Who knows. But I don't think it's going to be because he lacks the ability. If he did, then 2012 would have never happened.

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 Post subject: Re: Superbowl or bust it is
PostPosted: Wed May 01, 2013 2:33 pm 
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Kudos Pudge... The reason why Atlanta didn't reach the Super Bowl has more to do with defense being unable to bring it all 4 quarters than it does with Matt Ryan's turnovers.

That and Atlanta's inability to get consistency on the ground.

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 Post subject: Re: Superbowl or bust it is
PostPosted: Fri May 03, 2013 9:50 pm 
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And this is for you two, Cyril & RobertAP, here's the truth about Mularkey.

It wasn't an issue with Mularkey per se. Mularkey handled Ryan very well as a rookie, and the stability Mularkey provided over his first 3 years was necessary for Ryan's growth and development.

The problem came in Year 4 (2011) when Dimitroff made the move up to get Julio Jones. That was incompatible with the type of offense that Mularkey had shown he could successfully run. Mularkey's success in Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Miami to a certain extent came on "conservative" run-first offenses that were built around a strong running game. That is what the Falcons were from 2008-10, and it worked to a certain degree. Then when TD mortgaged the future in the Julio trade, it was a sharp turn away from that philosophy. And to make that move work/worth it, the Falcons had to gear their offense towards a pass-oriented attack. Mularkey's lone attempt of that came in 2001 with Tommy Maddox in Pittsburgh, and of course it led to the Steelers going 6-10.

Had the Falcons not made the Jones trade, and instead invested those picks in a RB and a strong offensive line, the Falcons could have continued with Mularkey to a modicum more success. That of course raises the issue of whether or not a run-first offense could succeed at the highest levels, but that can work if you're defense is on point (see Seattle & San Francisco).

The flaw in your argument RobertAP is that since you see Mularkey as incompatible in Atlanta, you see him as incompatible in the NFL. That's the tunnel vision that too many Falcon fans. The Falcons are just 1 of 32 slices of the pie.

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 Post subject: Re: Superbowl or bust it is
PostPosted: Fri May 03, 2013 10:36 pm 
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Well, the fact is that if you have the right QB (which we do) it is a lot easier to get to a Super Bowl by being an aggressive passing team than it is to get there on a punishing run game. The run game REQUIRES that you have a top defense, and we have not had that here in Atlanta. If you're going to be a punishing run team, then you need to invest heavily in the offensive line, which we haven't really done.

We have, in fact, invested in the offensive line over the past several years, but it has mostly been mid-round picks. Since he has been here, TD has invested a first and second rounder on the OL. While that's better than the previous administration, I don't think it's enough if you intend to have a punishing rushing game.


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 Post subject: Re: Superbowl or bust it is
PostPosted: Fri May 03, 2013 10:59 pm 
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Pudge wrote:
And this is for you two, Cyril & RobertAP, here's the truth about Mularkey.

It wasn't an issue with Mularkey per se. Mularkey handled Ryan very well as a rookie, and the stability Mularkey provided over his first 3 years was necessary for Ryan's growth and development.

The problem came in Year 4 (2011) when Dimitroff made the move up to get Julio Jones. That was incompatible with the type of offense that Mularkey had shown he could successfully run. Mularkey's success in Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Miami to a certain extent came on "conservative" run-first offenses that were built around a strong running game. That is what the Falcons were from 2008-10, and it worked to a certain degree. Then when TD mortgaged the future in the Julio trade, it was a sharp turn away from that philosophy. And to make that move work/worth it, the Falcons had to gear their offense towards a pass-oriented attack. Mularkey's lone attempt of that came in 2001 with Tommy Maddox in Pittsburgh, and of course it led to the Steelers going 6-10.

Had the Falcons not made the Jones trade, and instead invested those picks in a RB and a strong offensive line, the Falcons could have continued with Mularkey to a modicum more success. That of course raises the issue of whether or not a run-first offense could succeed at the highest levels, but that can work if you're defense is on point (see Seattle & San Francisco).

The flaw in your argument RobertAP is that since you see Mularkey as incompatible in Atlanta, you see him as incompatible in the NFL. That's the tunnel vision that too many Falcon fans. The Falcons are just 1 of 32 slices of the pie.


I ain't buyin it.

so your 'premise' is that TD f*cked up Mularkey? By picking Julio? He did that to 'Inspector Gadget'?

I tend to agree with RAP. By year 2-3 he should have been taking the chains off Ryan.

I never bought into the 'noodle arm' or the 'hesitance' to go longball. That was Smitty and Waterworld.

who here was more damning of 'Turd Koetter' them myself? I was wrong,wrong,wrong. He was legions better then 'Kevin CostinyouyerSuperbowl'

Mularkey: really? training wheels. :hand:

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 Post subject: Re: Superbowl or bust it is
PostPosted: Sat May 04, 2013 12:13 pm 
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fun gus wrote:
so your 'premise' is that TD f*cked up Mularkey

I didn't say TD messed up Mularkey. I said they were incompatible. The problem is you're looking for someone to blame, and there should be no blame. You had a GM trying to build a pass-first team and a coach that was most compatible with coaching a run-first team. It's like a relationship that starts strong between two people, but then they reach a snag because one of them wants kids and the other doesn't. Neither person screwed up the relationship, it's just that long-term they were incompatible and it was best to end things sooner rather than later.

fun gus wrote:
I never bought into the 'noodle arm' or the 'hesitance' to go longball. That was Smitty and Waterworld.

When you watch tape, you become aware that Ryan is essentially the same QB he's always been. His formers issues and limitations remain his issues and limitations.

RobertAP wrote:
The run game REQUIRES that you have a top defense, and we have not had that here in Atlanta.

You're right Robert, to be a run-oriented team, it puts more pressure on your defense because it likely means you're not going to be scoring as many points per game. But you don't need a top defense, just one that is significantly better than our average one. See the Ravens, whose defense played very well in January (as did the Cardinals in '08 or Colts in '06). Now obviously, the best strategy is instead hoping that your average defense steps up in January, is to try to build the best possible defense you can so that they don't have to step up and they can just play at their normal level (which is really good).

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 Post subject: Re: Superbowl or bust it is
PostPosted: Sat May 04, 2013 3:16 pm 
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I'm a big fan of defense, and it isn't like TD hasn't tried to improve the defense, it's just that he has made a couple of major misses with Peria Jerry and Ray Edwards. There's also 3 potential defensive players not on our roster because of our draft day trades. Again, I'm pretty disgusted with Dimitroff for giving away so many top 100 picks.


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 Post subject: Re: Superbowl or bust it is
PostPosted: Sat May 04, 2013 3:51 pm 
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Pudge wrote:
I didn't say TD messed up Mularkey. I said they were incompatible. The problem is you're looking for someone to blame, and there should be no blame. You had a GM trying to build a pass-first team and a coach that was most compatible with coaching a run-first team. It's like a relationship that starts strong between two people, but then they reach a snag because one of them wants kids and the other doesn't. Neither person screwed up the relationship, it's just that long-term they were incompatible and it was best to end things sooner rather than later.


:roll:

So, you have a GM and a Head Coach 'not on the same page' and 'not communicating and being honest with each other about the direction of the team and it's philosophy', and when we don't even score a TD in a playoff game? you are DAMN right I am looking for someone to blame. :naughty:

and then next season with 2 new coordinators, one year removed from the Giant Fiasco(tm) and not only does the team score points, they win a playoff game , and are very very close to going to the dance? And it's NOT Mularkey's 'fault'? The man who couldn't implement a screen to save his life, who just showed the world how 'great' he is with another team, and BVG who took his NFL experience to Auburn and sucked there too?

But it's not the coordinators, it's TD and Smitty wanting two different things for the team?

Yeah, again. Not buyin it :snooty:

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 Post subject: Re: Superbowl or bust it is
PostPosted: Sat May 04, 2013 4:19 pm 
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Here's an exercise worth considering fun gus.

What would you be thinking if the Falcons didn't beat Seattle? How much would your current opinions of Matt Ryan, Mike Smith, Mike Mularkey, Dirk Koetter, Mike Nolan, Brian VanGorder, Arthur Blank, Julio Jones, Tony Gonzalez, John Abraham, etc. change had that been the case?

My bet is that it would be drastic. Given that you've gone on record saying that if the Falcons had lost that game, you would have fully supported the firing of Mike Smith, and presumably would be vehemently against the long-term extension coming to Matt Ryan.

The point I'm trying to illustrate is don't you find it fascinating that in the grand scheme of things, you change a few minor details (e.g. Chris Clemons not tearing his ACL, or Harry Douglas not making that 20-yard catch just before the end of regulation, etc.) and how drastically your worldview shifts?

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 Post subject: Re: Superbowl or bust it is
PostPosted: Sun May 05, 2013 2:59 am 
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Well, I made it clear after the loss to the 49ers that Smitty needs to change his ways, or the Falcons are not going to win with him at the helm. In back to back playoff games, this team quit. Whether they quit because they thought that the game was in the bag, or they quit because we went into prevent mode, the blame still sits with Smitty. IMHO, this year should be Smitty's last chance. If the Falcons get to the playoffs again this year, and the team shows the same kind of pattern, Smitty has to go.


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 Post subject: Re: Superbowl or bust it is
PostPosted: Sun May 05, 2013 9:30 am 
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Pudge wrote:
Here's an exercise worth considering fun gus.

What would you be thinking if the Falcons didn't beat Seattle? How much would your current opinions of Matt Ryan, Mike Smith, Mike Mularkey, Dirk Koetter, Mike Nolan, Brian VanGorder, Arthur Blank, Julio Jones, Tony Gonzalez, John Abraham, etc. change had that been the case?

My bet is that it would be drastic. Given that you've gone on record saying that if the Falcons had lost that game, you would have fully supported the firing of Mike Smith, and presumably would be vehemently against the long-term extension coming to Matt Ryan.

The point I'm trying to illustrate is don't you find it fascinating that in the grand scheme of things, you change a few minor details (e.g. Chris Clemons not tearing his ACL, or Harry Douglas not making that 20-yard catch just before the end of regulation, etc.) and how drastically your worldview shifts?



I dont consider exercise 8-)

seriously, I would have advocated for a clean sweep, but keep Ryan. I have been forthright about the coaching/F.O. Im on record saying after the Giant Fiasco(tm) if we did not 'show up' or make progress then radical changes must be made. I stand by that. But we did make progress, and it was because Arthur FIRED both of thos losers after the Saints Stain (tm) last season :so:

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 Post subject: Re: Superbowl or bust it is
PostPosted: Sun May 05, 2013 10:29 am 
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RobertAP wrote:
In back to back playoff games, this team quit. Whether they quit because they thought that the game was in the bag, or they quit because we went into prevent mode, the blame still sits with Smitty.

Or...

The Falcons got off to two very fast starts against two superior opponents, and with all four quarters being played out, things equalized.

As I've stated before Robert, the reason why we have differing opinions is that we have fundamentally different assessments of how good this Falcon team is. Essentially, you believe that this Falcon team is the best team in the NFL, and thus when they do not perform up to that level, it is underachieving. Frankly, if you did not have that opinion then you shouldn't be complaining about anything.

I on the other hand believe this team is no more talented than several teams that didn't make the playoffs such as Dallas or Chicago, and thus their success last year was overachievement.

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 Post subject: Re: Superbowl or bust it is
PostPosted: Sun May 05, 2013 10:35 am 
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Pudge wrote:
RobertAP wrote:
In back to back playoff games, this team quit. Whether they quit because they thought that the game was in the bag, or they quit because we went into prevent mode, the blame still sits with Smitty.

Or...

The Falcons got off to two very fast starts against two superior opponents, and with all four quarters being played out, things equalized..



:rofl:

Thank you Pudge!

we did not fail, we just got 'equalized' :doh:

if you'll excuse me I now need to clean the coffee off of my desktop :lol:


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Last edited by fun gus on Wed May 08, 2013 8:14 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Superbowl or bust it is
PostPosted: Sun May 05, 2013 5:46 pm 
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Pudge, I do not believe that we have the most talented TEAM in the NFL. I believe that we have the most talented offense. (Or rather, we did... I do not know if we do anymore with losing McClure and Clabo. And you already pointed out that I was not very high on McClure, but I explained my reasoning about this in another thread.)

Our offense is what got us out to the big lead, and it was our offense that quit in the 2nd half of both games. We either took our foot off of the gas, or we stopped executing. Again, either way, that comes back to the coaching staff. We do not have, "that killer instinct."

Because of our weakness on the defensive side of the ball, our offense should never let off the gas. We should ALWAYS be balls to the wall on offense. If we are up by 21 going into the fourth quarter, perhaps that's when you bring in some of the younger guys and get them playing time. But even then, you don't go into prevent mode. You play aggressively for 4 quarters so that when the playoffs come around, that's the status quo. Also, if you play like this, you don't become known as, "the worst team to ever make it that far." Instead, you're known as, "the greatest show on turf."


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 Post subject: Re: Superbowl or bust it is
PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2013 12:03 am 
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I may be naive, but when I look at the 2013 Falcons I am more excited than pesimistic. I always start with the offense and what is not to like.

- Roddy/Julio should be at least as good as 2012.
- I gotta belive Tony will be as good.
- I think HD is weak, so if he shows at all he is as good as 2012.
- SJax ran as well as Turner behind a worse line in a worse offense so he should be an upgrade (as minor as it may be)
- I think 6'8"Rookie offers something new in the red zone.
- Konz cant be worse than McClure at blocking (he could be worse at line calls though) so this is probably a wash if not an improvement
- Clabo may have had his worst season as a pro, so Holmes should with a little focus be as good as Clabo was in 2012.
- If Ryan is not resigned by then (and I think it is a possibility), then he will have his "Contract year" play which is a good thing for the Falcs.

I just cant for the life of me see why we should be any worse on Offense.

On Defense, we should be at least as good (unless teams have just figured out Nolan)
- DL is practically identical (assumin no young DE steps up) which I think we are going to be pleasantly suprised with Goodman as a situational rusher. Look at tape and see how often Edwards and then Beirman lose contain and allow for a long run or a run option. Goodman is really good at keeping contain.
- maybe OSI will be less than Abe but I think they are the same player.
- LB is exactly the same as 2012 (maybe spoon gets better but I am not sure how much until someone teaches him to tackle) (man we need a Ray Lewis type mentor for him...Brian Urlacher anyone, he just cant play anymore)
- Trufant has to be better than Dunte, hell Dunte has been a 20yard reception machine for the last 3 years, so if Trufant at least trys to cover his man he will be better. I think he will play as well as a Deangelo Hall as rookie maybe even better.
- Safety is exactly the same.

So on defense we should improve ever so slightly, the key will be can Nolan stop the read option while not allowing a record yardage to TEs.

Special teams was not very special in 2012 (mainly KR/PR), and I think we will also be pleasantly suprised by Alford's return skills and speed is a good thing.

Much of my optimism comes from what I think is a very good draft by TD. Speed is the key to these wide open offenses of today and Trufant, Alford, & Goodman all have it. Maybe we get lucky and one of the late rounders produces something in the future as well.


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 Post subject: Re: Superbowl or bust it is
PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2013 3:03 am 
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You make good points FalconRandy. On offense, the big question, for me, is will the right side of the line hold up. I'm really not at all concerned about whether Konz is better than McClure... I believe that he will be an immediate upgrade over McClure. But I am not comfortable at all with RG or RT. Hopefully the young guys step up. We shall see.

I think that SJax will make the offense more dynamic... When Turner was in the game, teams didn't have to worry about us passing to him. With SJax and Rodgers back there, teams have to respect both the run, and the potential for screens. That should help to keep the mid-range passing game wide open. However, I don't think that SJax will be much more effective than Turner was running behind our OL.

I also agree that Toilolo will be a big weapon for us, but I don't expect him to be very involved until later in the year.


On defense, I think that early on, the secondary will be worse than it was last year. Once the playoffs get here, it should be as good as it was last year. CB is a TOUGH position to play in the NFL. Our rookie tandem might be pretty darn good in a couple of years, but I'd temper my expectations for this year.

The front seven is full of unknowns. About the only two players that I'm comfortable with are Umenyiora and Weatherspoon. The rest of them are unproven, not that great, or losing a step. IF Goodman steps up, that would be awesome. IF Banks steps up, that would be awesome. IF Biermann finally elevates his play to the point that many folks think he can, that would be awesome. Lots of if's in the front 7.


I also agree with you on your special teams comments. I think I'll be surprised if Franks makes the 53 man roster.


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 Post subject: Re: Superbowl or bust it is
PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2013 5:34 am 
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And this is for you two, Cyril & RobertAP, here's the truth about Mularkey.

Quote:
It wasn't an issue with Mularkey per se. Mularkey handled Ryan very well as a rookie, and the stability Mularkey provided over his first 3 years was necessary for Ryan's growth and development.

The problem came in Year 4 (2011) when Dimitroff made the move up to get Julio Jones.


I've said many times that Mularkey was great for Ryan except in Mularkey's last year;
and perhaps he held him back some that year....Check my posts I've said exactly that!!

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 Post subject: Re: Superbowl or bust it is
PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2013 1:29 pm 
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Cyril wrote:
And this is for you two, Cyril & RobertAP, here's the truth about Mularkey.

Quote:
It wasn't an issue with Mularkey per se. Mularkey handled Ryan very well as a rookie, and the stability Mularkey provided over his first 3 years was necessary for Ryan's growth and development.

The problem came in Year 4 (2011) when Dimitroff made the move up to get Julio Jones.


I've said many times that Mularkey was great for Ryan except in Mularkey's last year;
and perhaps he held him back some that year....Check my posts I've said exactly that!!

I don't need to check your posts, you have said exactly that. I happen to disagree with both you and Pudge. I think that Mularkey held Ryan back for a couple of years without allowing him to grow AT ALL. Matt Ryan was the same QB from year 1 through year 3. No development. I suppose if you believe that Ryan couldn't have developed at all in that time, then Mularkey did a fine job. I happen to believe that Ryan could have been developing during that time. The kid was running the no-huddle like a veteran in his rookie year. We didn't need to keep him in some imaginary bubble for 3 years.

If Mularkey was good for Ryan, then Schottenheimer was great for Brees. The truth is that neither of these coaches were good coaches for a top level QB, they were old-school, run oriented coaches. Brees and Ryan are top QBs. Having a strong run game for their first year was a blessing for both QBs. However, once they had their feet wet, it was time to spread their wings, and Mularkey and Schottenheimer were not capable of helping them do that. The Chargers chased Brees out of town. Falcons fans were quite ready to call Ryan a bust. Cyril, to this day, doesn't like Ryan because of his play under Mularkey. What does it take to come to the realization that Mularkey was bad for Ryan? Why do people continue to defend Mularkey even after it has been made obvious that he held Ryan back?


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 Post subject: Re: Superbowl or bust it is
PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2013 6:35 pm 
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Schottenheimer WAS good for Bees. Its not a coincidence that Bees took off in San Diego in his 3rd year in Can Cameron's offense. Just because Bees became an eventual HOFer in New Orleans doesn't mean he was ready to be that guy in 2002, 2004, or 2005. His career path had it been altered in any way probably wouldn't have gotten him to the place he is now.
http://falcfans.com/takeaways-from-last ... ril-8-7435

Look great QB play doesn't come fully formed out of the aether. Most great QBs begin their careers operating conservative offenses and then expand from there. Schottenheimer and Cameron provided a foundation for Brees. As Mularkey did for Ryan. Ryan wasn't ready for "more" until 2011, and not a moment sooner.

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 Post subject: Re: Superbowl or bust it is
PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2013 6:44 pm 
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Pudge wrote:
Ryan wasn't ready for "more" until 2011, and not a moment sooner.


disagree.

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 Post subject: Re: Superbowl or bust it is
PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2013 7:18 pm 
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falconrandy wrote:
I may be naive, but when I look at the 2013 Falcons I am more excited than pesimistic. I always start with the offense and what is not to like.


I don't think you're being naive because it very well may happen but I think you and many others are taking a few things for granted on offense.

I don't think people truly appreciate how good Roddy, Julio, and Tony were last season. They ranked 4th, 8th, and 12th last year in regular season EPA (Expected Points Added, Advanced NFL Stats.com main metric) with 71.2, 64.2, and 59.7. Those specific numbers are noteworthy because their respective EPAs in 2011 were going 40, 42, and 40.7.

From 2007-11, Roddy's avg EPA per year was slightly under 49.

Gonzo's 2012 EPA was about on par with his 2009 form (59.3) and 2008 (54.3), but again given his age, its somewhat unreasonable to expect him to continue to perform at that level. In all likelihood, 2012 is a statistical outlier and he too will "regress to the mean" in 2013.

I also don't think people appreciate Ryan's "regression" over the 2nd half of the season. He still was one of the best QBs (Top 8) in the league, but I've concluded that player that we've seen under Mularkey is just Ryan's "natural state/level" and the MVP-caliber performance we got over the first half of the season (up til the Arizona game) was Ryan going above and beyond himself.

So IMO there will be a significant dropoff yo the effectiveness of the passing game this year. The real question is how much?

The other thing that people don't factor in is that even if the Falcons are an improved team, it could all be for naught if they don't get a good matchup in the playoffs. And potentially they need to be at home. The Falcons presumably can throw the ball on anybody. But you could say the exact same thing about the Saints the past 6 years, and they've never won a playoff game on the road in that span.

If the Falcons have another relatively injury free season they should be in prime position to win home field advantage. But if not...the odds aren't quite in our favor.

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 Post subject: Re: Superbowl or bust it is
PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2013 8:43 pm 
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I cant prove it with stats, but I watch intently the offense and notice a trend that can be disturbing.

The Falcons can pass on anyone (as proven against SF and Sea who are both really good defenses) but if/when they get lead, they tend to slow down.

At first I thought it was Smith going conservative, but it appears that is not the case with Koetter. But never the less, they seem to become less effective with a larger lead. I think it is attitude and focus by the key players like Roddy and Ryan. I think that happens in a game (example two playoff games) as well as within the season.

I think the drop off you referenced during the 2nd half of the season is caused (at least partly) by that same mentality. They as a tem get overly confident, relaxed, or something. That is also the reason their worse games are against the weakest teams.

2013 will be against much tougher teams and thus this drop off should not be as apparent.


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