It is currently Wed Jul 30, 2014 2:20 pm

All times are UTC - 4 hours [ DST ]





Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 25 posts ] 
Author Message
 Post subject: What position would make the most impact if drafted?
PostPosted: Fri Jan 25, 2013 1:42 pm 
Offline
Superstar
Superstar
User avatar

Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2007 6:59 pm
Posts: 1145
Location: San Diego, CA
Yesterday I watched the Senior Bowl practices and looked around the web and checked out some mock drafts. Just for shits and giggles, because right now its nearly impossible to know where players are going to go before prodays and the combine.

A lot of sites have us going DL or TE in the first round, which wouldnt be a bad haul but what if a player falls to the Falcons even if the player plays a position that is not an immediate need? For example if Ogletree falls to us do we ignore the talent and draft a DL that will need one to two seasons to develop?

All of this to say, what position would have the biggest impact on the 2013-14 season if drafted?

_________________
The Young Gunner


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: What position would make the most impact if drafted?
PostPosted: Fri Jan 25, 2013 4:26 pm 
Offline
Playmaker
Playmaker
User avatar

Joined: Sun Feb 10, 2008 9:46 am
Posts: 471
Location: Vacaville, CA
DE/3-4 OLB pass-rush specialist. On plays when we need pressure, we cannot get it. This leads to panic moves like frequent blitzing in the second half of playoff games.

While not a HoFer, Abraham has been excellent in this role, as well as playing the run very well for an smallish DE. Spoon and Nicholas are much better on the line or on the defensive side of it; neither of them are consistent, impact blitzers.

Much has been made of Atlanta failing to gain rushing yards when they need to. I'd argue that this can be hidden by their passing O more successfully than their pass rush deficiency can be hidden by strong secondary play.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: What position would make the most impact if drafted?
PostPosted: Fri Jan 25, 2013 5:22 pm 
Offline
Superstar
Superstar
User avatar

Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2007 6:59 pm
Posts: 1145
Location: San Diego, CA
samedi wrote:
DE/3-4 OLB pass-rush specialist. On plays when we need pressure, we cannot get it. This leads to panic moves like frequent blitzing in the second half of playoff games.

While not a HoFer, Abraham has been excellent in this role, as well as playing the run very well for an smallish DE. Spoon and Nicholas are much better on the line or on the defensive side of it; neither of them are consistent, impact blitzers.

Much has been made of Atlanta failing to gain rushing yards when they need to. I'd argue that this can be hidden by their passing O more successfully than their pass rush deficiency can be hidden by strong secondary play.


Yeah I would like a Anthony Barr or Cory Lemonier type guy to play in 3rd and five or longer situations. In regards to our passing offense If Eiffert and Ertz are gone by the time our pick comes up I would really consider using our 2nd round pick on one of the vertical threats at WR and move away from the TE heavy sets. Guys like Cordarrelle Patterson, Deandre Hopkins, and possibly Justin Hunter could be available late in the second round.

_________________
The Young Gunner


Last edited by The Mattural on Sat Jan 26, 2013 3:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: What position would make the most impact if drafted?
PostPosted: Fri Jan 25, 2013 5:28 pm 
Offline
All-Pro
All-Pro

Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2007 2:01 pm
Posts: 952
These aren't the guys I want drafted, but the guys who would make the biggest difference would be OG, WR, TE, RB.

On defense, we have a lot of holes, and guys come along slowly, so there may not be much impact first year. Whereas a good RG would make a huge difference. And at WR, TE, RB...you can scheme to use the players strengths (whereas on D, you have to cover their weaknesses, which is harder).

Any decent 1st/2nd round WR/RB/TE would make a difference immediately.

That said, if we knew we were going to get an impact starter, I'd say DE or DT. Collapse the pocket, or get to the passer.

But it's good to keep in mind who impact immediately, and who slowly, so you know what to get in FA, what in early rounds, and what in mid rounds.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: What position would make the most impact if drafted?
PostPosted: Fri Jan 25, 2013 8:07 pm 
Offline
Superstar
Superstar

Joined: Tue Jan 10, 2006 3:15 pm
Posts: 4191
At #30, the best bet is going to be OL, OLB, or RB. However, I think for us to have an effective running game, we're going to need to improve the interior OL. There have to be holes for a RB to be effective. So I'd go with OL over RB at this point. RB's are a dime a dozen, and you don't need a top RB to have success.

There's not a lot of top talent at TE in this draft. Beyond Eifert and Ertz the talent drops off considerably. However, it's certainly possible that they could drop to us. You never know how a draft is going to play out.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: What position would make the most impact if drafted?
PostPosted: Fri Jan 25, 2013 11:16 pm 
Offline
Superstar
Superstar
User avatar

Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2007 6:59 pm
Posts: 1145
Location: San Diego, CA
RobertAP wrote:
At #30, the best bet is going to be OL, OLB, or RB. However, I think for us to have an effective running game, we're going to need to improve the interior OL. There have to be holes for a RB to be effective. So I'd go with OL over RB at this point. RB's are a dime a dozen, and you don't need a top RB to have success.

There's not a lot of top talent at TE in this draft. Beyond Eifert and Ertz the talent drops off considerably. However, it's certainly possible that they could drop to us. You never know how a draft is going to play out.


I agree about the OG that would be huge with our O-line but certain RBs can make up for a lack of talent at certain spots, lets say Gio Bernard falls to 30 the only interior lineman I would draft over him is Chance Warmack (no way he falls that far). For the simple fact that he will help the running game, receiving game, and the return game. I do agree with the above post that offensive players would have a bigger impact than any defensive player at 30, but it wont matter if we are still so conservative on offense. I just hope that if we do go defense that Mike Nolan has a lot of input on the pick whether it be a LB, DE, DB, or DT. I just want at least three to four contributors from this draft class.

_________________
The Young Gunner


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: What position would make the most impact if drafted?
PostPosted: Fri Jan 25, 2013 11:51 pm 
Offline
Purveyor of Truth & Justice
Purveyor of Truth & Justice
User avatar

Joined: Thu Dec 23, 2004 3:03 pm
Posts: 25774
Location: North Carolina
Impact is less about the position, than the player. But assuming similar skill level, if you're asking which position would make the most impact in 2013, then the obvious answer is RB.

_________________
"Vincere scis, Hannibal, victoria uti nescis" -- Maharbal, 216 B.C.E.


Top
 Profile E-mail  
 
 Post subject: Re: What position would make the most impact if drafted?
PostPosted: Sat Jan 26, 2013 3:30 pm 
Offline
Superstar
Superstar
User avatar

Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2007 6:59 pm
Posts: 1145
Location: San Diego, CA
Pudge wrote:
Impact is less about the position, than the player. But assuming similar skill level, if you're asking which position would make the most impact in 2013, then the obvious answer is RB.


So you don't think that if we were to get a WR that can "win now" as they say unlike HD83 that wouldn't make a bigger impact seeing as that we throw the ball more than we run it? If you put Deandre Hopkins in the slot or him out wide and Julio or Roddy in the slot depending our run pass ratio one could argue that they could have a bigger impact than a RB (unless the RB is just special, which this draft doesn't have).

_________________
The Young Gunner


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: What position would make the most impact if drafted?
PostPosted: Sun Jan 27, 2013 11:19 am 
Offline
Draught Guru
Draught Guru
User avatar

Joined: Mon Oct 01, 2007 7:32 am
Posts: 4912
samedi wrote:
DE/3-4 OLB pass-rush specialist. On plays when we need pressure, we cannot get it. This leads to panic moves like frequent blitzing in the second half of playoff games.
.



This. That's the way Im leaning, too.

_________________
"what if there were no hypothetical situations?"


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: What position would make the most impact if drafted?
PostPosted: Sun Jan 27, 2013 2:48 pm 
Offline
Superstar
Superstar
User avatar

Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2007 6:59 pm
Posts: 1145
Location: San Diego, CA
fun gus wrote:
samedi wrote:
DE/3-4 OLB pass-rush specialist. On plays when we need pressure, we cannot get it. This leads to panic moves like frequent blitzing in the second half of playoff games.
.



This. That's the way Im leaning, too.


After watching the Senior Bowl I want to pray to Sweet baby Jesus that either Ziggy Ansah or Margus Hunt falls to us. Which after seeing Ansah in the Senior Bowl and imagining what he will do at the combine seems highly unlikely. Margus Hunt would be that player that Pudge was talking about that is necessary for a team to have if they want to move to a more traditional 3-4, in addition to being able to play DE and DT in the 4-3.

_________________
The Young Gunner


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: What position would make the most impact if drafted?
PostPosted: Sun Jan 27, 2013 9:04 pm 
Offline
Purveyor of Truth & Justice
Purveyor of Truth & Justice
User avatar

Joined: Thu Dec 23, 2004 3:03 pm
Posts: 25774
Location: North Carolina
The Mattural wrote:
Pudge wrote:
Impact is less about the position, than the player. But assuming similar skill level, if you're asking which position would make the most impact in 2013, then the obvious answer is RB.


So you don't think that if we were to get a WR that can "win now" as they say unlike HD83 that wouldn't make a bigger impact seeing as that we throw the ball more than we run it? If you put Deandre Hopkins in the slot or him out wide and Julio or Roddy in the slot depending our run pass ratio one could argue that they could have a bigger impact than a RB (unless the RB is just special, which this draft doesn't have).

Receivers always take time to develop. It's a well-known fact that rookie WRs tend to struggle. Even a WR as good as Julio Jones didn't have a huge impact as a rookie. He put up great numbers, but his impact outside 4 or 5 games was minimal at best. Think about it this way. As a rookie, Julio Jones had 90 targets, or roughly about 7.5 per game. Given a full slate of games, that works out to be about 120. Our 3rd WR, Harry Douglas, has averaged about 60 targets per year. Tony Gonzalez has about 120 targets each of the past two years. What rookie WR is going to come in and be as good as Tony Gonzalez or Julio Jones? Such a rookie really doesn't exist.

RB on the other hand is a position that people generally know can come in right away and impact quickly. Until this recent run of good rookie QBs beginning in '08 with Ryan, between 1986 and 2007, 17 of the 22 possible offensive rookies of the year were RBs.

Turner had about 250 touches this year. It's conceivable that the Falcons could draft a RB this year that could step in and fill his role, and fill it much better than he did this past year (see Doug Martin). Even if that WR is better than Douglas, he's only really going to touch the ball 40 or so times next year, vs. a RB that could potentially touch the ball 250 times.

Pass rushers typically take 2-3 years before they become impact players. Think about Patrick Kerney. The JPPs, Aldon Smith, Von Millers, Freeneys of the world that come in and beast early on are almost always Top 15 if not Top 10 picks.

If we're talking about impact in terms of helping a team win games, it's really no contest, it's running back, unless this team is going to find a Luke Kuechly in the latter part of Round 1. RB, TE, and LB are really the only positions that come in early on and tend to impact. And as far as TEs go, it really depends on the TE. Most good rookie TEs are more like Brandon Pettigrew, Greg Olsen, and Kyle Rudolph. You don't find very many Rob Gronkowskis or Jeremy Shockeys that are really impact players right away.

But again that goes back to player. If you're not drafting a guy that you feel will be a perennial Pro Bowler at his position, then he's really not worth a 1st round pick, certainly not in the Top 20. Where the Falcons are picking this year, you can more often settle for just a good player, those guys that tend to be more of the high floor, low ceiling guys (e.g. Vikings S Harrison Smith) that are really ideally 2nd round picks but because of need and the fact that there aren't those "special" guys on the board, you can take them.

_________________
"Vincere scis, Hannibal, victoria uti nescis" -- Maharbal, 216 B.C.E.


Top
 Profile E-mail  
 
 Post subject: Re: What position would make the most impact if drafted?
PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 1:44 pm 
Offline
All-Pro
All-Pro
User avatar

Joined: Sat Oct 01, 2005 7:54 pm
Posts: 707
Location: Murfreesboro, TN
Quote:
Even a WR as good as Julio Jones didn't have a huge impact as a rookie. He put up great numbers, but his impact outside 4 or 5 games was minimal at best.


I would argue a lack of training camp his rookie year hurt him more than anything that first year...injuries aside, as his comfortability with the system came, so did the numbers.

_________________
Brian Westbrook taking a knee cost me the Fantasy Football championship!!


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: What position would make the most impact if drafted?
PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 8:08 pm 
Offline
Purveyor of Truth & Justice
Purveyor of Truth & Justice
User avatar

Joined: Thu Dec 23, 2004 3:03 pm
Posts: 25774
Location: North Carolina
ridethemattrain wrote:
Quote:
Even a WR as good as Julio Jones didn't have a huge impact as a rookie. He put up great numbers, but his impact outside 4 or 5 games was minimal at best.


I would argue a lack of training camp his rookie year hurt him more than anything that first year...injuries aside, as his comfortability with the system came, so did the numbers.

Regardless, the point is that even if you "hit" on a rookie WR, like Jones, AJ Green, Doug Baldwin, Denarius Moore, or Torrey Smith, their impact is sporadic at best.

But I'm not sure how much water your argument holds. Without a lockout to deal with this 2012 WR class did not have a better collective season than the 2011 WR class. You could probably make the same claim about the 2010 group. In fact, one might argue the lockout was beneficial to the rookie WRs because of the substantial growth that passing took as a whole from 2010 to 2011.

But still my point remains. Since the Falcons already have a very good passing game, then you'd have to consider impact to be either their ability to maintain that high level passing game or growth. Basically meaning that any pass catcher that comes in (whether WR or TE) is going to have to have a similar impact as Tony Gonzalez, as that is the player they'd be likely replacing. That seems doubtful even for the best WR/TE prospects, something the Falcons are unlikely to have access to picking where they are.

The Falcons running game is already weak, thus there is significant room for growth there that having a good Doug Martin-esque RB can have a quick, immediate, and consistent impact.

_________________
"Vincere scis, Hannibal, victoria uti nescis" -- Maharbal, 216 B.C.E.


Top
 Profile E-mail  
 
 Post subject: Re: What position would make the most impact if drafted?
PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 1:08 pm 
Offline
Superstar
Superstar
User avatar

Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2007 6:59 pm
Posts: 1145
Location: San Diego, CA
Pudge wrote:
ridethemattrain wrote:
Quote:
Even a WR as good as Julio Jones didn't have a huge impact as a rookie. He put up great numbers, but his impact outside 4 or 5 games was minimal at best.


I would argue a lack of training camp his rookie year hurt him more than anything that first year...injuries aside, as his comfortability with the system came, so did the numbers.

Regardless, the point is that even if you "hit" on a rookie WR, like Jones, AJ Green, Doug Baldwin, Denarius Moore, or Torrey Smith, their impact is sporadic at best.

But I'm not sure how much water your argument holds. Without a lockout to deal with this 2012 WR class did not have a better collective season than the 2011 WR class. You could probably make the same claim about the 2010 group. In fact, one might argue the lockout was beneficial to the rookie WRs because of the substantial growth that passing took as a whole from 2010 to 2011.

But still my point remains. Since the Falcons already have a very good passing game, then you'd have to consider impact to be either their ability to maintain that high level passing game or growth. Basically meaning that any pass catcher that comes in (whether WR or TE) is going to have to have a similar impact as Tony Gonzalez, as that is the player they'd be likely replacing. That seems doubtful even for the best WR/TE prospects, something the Falcons are unlikely to have access to picking where they are.

The Falcons running game is already weak, thus there is significant room for growth there that having a good Doug Martin-esque RB can have a quick, immediate, and consistent impact.


So Pudge with no elite prospect at RB in this draft, if you could have you could have your choice at RB who would you take? If you say Ray Graham so help me I will come through your computer screen to strangle you lol :lol:.

_________________
The Young Gunner


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: What position would make the most impact if drafted?
PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 4:09 pm 
Offline
Purveyor of Truth & Justice
Purveyor of Truth & Justice
User avatar

Joined: Thu Dec 23, 2004 3:03 pm
Posts: 25774
Location: North Carolina
i really like Gio Bernard (UNC). I think he has the potential to be a Ray Rice-type of player. He's quick, explosive, and has the ability to be a dynamic option in the passing game. I haven't really dived in yet, but of the RB prospects available, he's probably the one that I've seen thus far that I'd be willing to use a #1 pick on.

I think Lacy is a good back because of his power ability to ru between the tackles and he's a capable receiver. I'm not sure if he's a "plus" running back in the sense that he makes his blocking dramatically better, or he's been benefitting greatly from playing behind a really good OL.

Christine Michael I liked a lot back in 2011, and had he stayed healthy last year I think could have been the #2 RB on the board behind Richardson. I know my grade on him was higher than I would have had for David Wilson & Doug Martin. He's compact and powerful for his size, but exceptionally quick. The issue with him is durability and whether or not he's lost too much from the ACL tear.

Montee Ball is a good RB, and I like the fact that he slimmed down to get a bit quicker. But I wonder if he's a volume back and thus is he going to be effective if he's only getting 14 or 15 carries a game?

I don't know if Stepfan Taylor is dynamic enough to be a lead back or is just really a situational runner. I'm not sure about his quickness, and thus is he more of a guy that should be spelling a #1 back, or is he capable of being one.

Ellington and Randle are explosive backs, but I'm not sure they have the upside to be basically more than what Quizz is as another situational back but with more HR ability. From what I've seen of LeVeon Bell, he reminds me too much of T.J. Duckett/the old Michael Turner in that he lacks quickness to his game. I saw Jawan Jamison earlier in the year, and he looked like he had some Ray Rice-like abilities to develop down the road, so I have to figure is he an upside guy or is he close to reaching his peak. And then of course, Lattimore is a solid runner, but obviously has durability issues.

It's going to be a deep group and right now I don't think the Falcons need to use a #1 on a RB. If they can get a Jamison, Michael, or Lattimore in Round 2 or 3, then they can devote that #1 pick to another position of need.

But I also don't think the Falcons should be drafting a pass rusher just for the sake of drafting a pass rusher. For instance, Alex Okafor. I think Okafor is a solid NFL prospect, but I don't think he's a 1st round pick because he's more of a good complementary guy than a guy that I believe is going to command double teams. A good comparison is Ryan Kerrigan vs. Brian Orakpo.

Kerrigan is not a bad pick especially at the point in the draft we're picking in Round 1. But if it basically boils down to drafting a pass rusher that all he's going to be is the next Ryan Kerrigan or Shaun Phillips or Paul Kruger, vs. drafting a RB that you believe has the Ray Rice upside and can be a Top 5 player at his position as opposed to a Top 20 guy at his position, then I believe the smart choice is choosing the RB, even understanding that I could wait 2 rounds and still get Pierre Thomas vs. Sam Acho.

I'm a firm believer in that every draft pick should be a significant upgrade over whatever you have, whether that is a No. 1 tailback or a No. 3 corner, or a No. 4 WR, or a No. 6 OL. If all you're doing is walking away with a guy that is a marginal upgrade over Kroy Biermann or Garrett Reynolds or Stephen Nicholas, then what was the point of drafting him?

I'm on the verge of getting into an anti-TD rant, so I'll cut it off there. Answer your question?

_________________
"Vincere scis, Hannibal, victoria uti nescis" -- Maharbal, 216 B.C.E.


Top
 Profile E-mail  
 
 Post subject: Re: What position would make the most impact if drafted?
PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 7:42 pm 
Offline
Superstar
Superstar
User avatar

Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2007 6:59 pm
Posts: 1145
Location: San Diego, CA
Yes you did lol. I would love Gio Bernard in Atlanta but I dont know if TD has the stones to spend a 1st round pick on him. I stated above that I really believe he would be able to contribute to three areas where we lack explosiveness (running game, recieving game, and return game). I am over the big bruising back even though Snelling runs higher than I like he still breaks tackles with regularity and can fill the roll of our big back. I want an explosive runner, If Gio Bernard would have trucked Earl Thomas and got into the open field he would have at least made it to the inside the 20 if he didnt score. I am not a fan of drafting for need (unless you need a QB and a good one is available) that strategy netted us Jamaal Anderson and Peria Jerry. Had we just taken the best players on the board we would have Patrick Willis or Darrelle Revis and Clay Matthews or Vontae Davis.

_________________
The Young Gunner


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: What position would make the most impact if drafted?
PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 8:04 pm 
Offline
Moderator
Moderator
User avatar

Joined: Tue Aug 09, 2005 3:11 pm
Posts: 4441
Location: Vancouver, WA
I'll go with any combo of DE/RB/OG/CB with our top picks.

_________________
Fear the BEARD!


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: What position would make the most impact if drafted?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 1:37 am 
Offline
Purveyor of Truth & Justice
Purveyor of Truth & Justice
User avatar

Joined: Thu Dec 23, 2004 3:03 pm
Posts: 25774
Location: North Carolina
The Mattural wrote:
Yes you did lol. I would love Gio Bernard in Atlanta but I dont know if TD has the stones to spend a 1st round pick on him. I stated above that I really believe he would be able to contribute to three areas where we lack explosiveness (running game, recieving game, and return game). I am over the big bruising back even though Snelling runs higher than I like he still breaks tackles with regularity and can fill the roll of our big back. I want an explosive runner, If Gio Bernard would have trucked Earl Thomas and got into the open field he would have at least made it to the inside the 20 if he didnt score. I am not a fan of drafting for need (unless you need a QB and a good one is available) that strategy netted us Jamaal Anderson and Peria Jerry. Had we just taken the best players on the board we would have Patrick Willis or Darrelle Revis and Clay Matthews or Vontae Davis.

I think the benefit of needs-based drafting is that you hit a larger number of "singles" and "doubles" when you draft. But it's harder to hit "triples" and "homeruns." Because you often wind up settling for solid/good players that fill your needs, as opposed to targeting really good/great players that may not.

I think that sort of strategy works well when you're trying to get a team out of the cellar. I don't know if it works as well when you're out of the cellar and trying to get over the hump to be a championship contender.

I talk a lot about hitting on your 1st & 2nd round picks, but in reality I don't have a ton of complaints about TD's drafting in those rounds when they actually do pick there. I don't like the Baker/Jerry reaches, but that's just 2 "bad" picks out of 8, which is not a poor number.

I think the real flaw in TD's drafting comes in Rounds 3-5. The guys that we typically get in Round 3 are often more in line with guys we should be drafting in Round 5 (e.g. Holmes, Dent, Owens), and the guys we typically find in Round 2 (e.g. Lofton, Moore), we should have found a couple of guys like that in Round 3. Especially when you consider that we have drafted a total of 19 guys in Rounds 3-5 over the past 5 years, and really have not found 1 guy like that. The closest being DeCoud, and that's really if you discount 60% of his career (only looking at 2009 and 2012). It may still be too early to write off Quizz, Dent, Hawley, Peters, Holmes, and Massaquoi, but I don't have the suspicion/expectation that any will become Top 10-15 guys at their position.

So while most of the attention is fixed on Smitty & Ryan for this team's shortcomings, I think it's TD that is the one that is not pulling his weight. I don't think he should be fired by any means, but I think if the Falcons get the same from SMitty & Ryan over the next 5 years that they've gotten over the past 5 years, they'll be OK as long as they get more from TD over the next 5 than they've gotten over the last 5.

And one worries does all of the attrition from our front office we've seen in recent years, will that negatively affect our drafting ability going forward?

_________________
"Vincere scis, Hannibal, victoria uti nescis" -- Maharbal, 216 B.C.E.


Top
 Profile E-mail  
 
 Post subject: Re: What position would make the most impact if drafted?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 1:52 pm 
Offline
Superstar
Superstar
User avatar

Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2007 6:59 pm
Posts: 1145
Location: San Diego, CA
That has been my only gripe with TD as well I just feel like if you are going to draft safely in rounds one and two then the 3rd round and after we should be swinging for the fences. I cant remember the last time the Falcons drafted an athlete in the 3-5 round range. Even when we take fliers on WRs we take the ones with low upside the Kerry Miers of the world. We will never find a Trindon Holliday or Antonio Brown like that.

_________________
The Young Gunner


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: What position would make the most impact if drafted?
PostPosted: Sat Feb 02, 2013 3:21 am 
Offline
All-Pro
All-Pro

Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2007 2:01 pm
Posts: 952
Pudge wrote:
I think the benefit of needs-based drafting is that you hit a larger number of "singles" and "doubles" when you draft. But it's harder to hit "triples" and "homeruns." Because you often wind up settling for solid/good players that fill your needs, as opposed to targeting really good/great players that may not.

I think that sort of strategy works well when you're trying to get a team out of the cellar. I don't know if it works as well when you're out of the cellar and trying to get over the hump to be a championship contender.

I talk a lot about hitting on your 1st & 2nd round picks, but in reality I don't have a ton of complaints about TD's drafting in those rounds when they actually do pick there. I don't like the Baker/Jerry reaches, but that's just 2 "bad" picks out of 8, which is not a poor number.

I think the real flaw in TD's drafting comes in Rounds 3-5. The guys that we typically get in Round 3 are often more in line with guys we should be drafting in Round 5 (e.g. Holmes, Dent, Owens), and the guys we typically find in Round 2 (e.g. Lofton, Moore), we should have found a couple of guys like that in Round 3. Especially when you consider that we have drafted a total of 19 guys in Rounds 3-5 over the past 5 years, and really have not found 1 guy like that. The closest being DeCoud, and that's really if you discount 60% of his career (only looking at 2009 and 2012). It may still be too early to write off Quizz, Dent, Hawley, Peters, Holmes, and Massaquoi, but I don't have the suspicion/expectation that any will become Top 10-15 guys at their position.

So while most of the attention is fixed on Smitty & Ryan for this team's shortcomings, I think it's TD that is the one that is not pulling his weight. I don't think he should be fired by any means, but I think if the Falcons get the same from SMitty & Ryan over the next 5 years that they've gotten over the past 5 years, they'll be OK as long as they get more from TD over the next 5 than they've gotten over the last 5.

And one worries does all of the attrition from our front office we've seen in recent years, will that negatively affect our drafting ability going forward?


Third round has been the most painful round as a fan. There are still really good players left and we always take a cute pick from nowhere. I agree 100% on the 3rd-5th issue. It's partially happened due to lack of picks. If TD likes a guy and is missing his 4th pick, he'll take him in the 3rd, even if he should last to the Falcons 5th but might not. Horrible value that way. Ugh.

I had us pegged for Graham, Shipley, Decker or Sanders when we took Peters/Johnson (wanting to take Atkins in the 5th...DT depth was great that year). We all know the Akeem Dent fiasco the next year, taking a 5th round thumper, when there were a TON of great players. And this year, Holmes. I hope the guy turns out great, but when you keep taking guys who seem like 5th-6th rounders in the 3rd round, you miss out in general, even if one occasionally pans out. Geez louise.

I like TD, but he has to migrate away from his midround tendencies, and away from strict needs based toward more mixed drafting strategy. And in the 3rd round, just take the guy you KNOW is good. Take your fliers later.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: What position would make the most impact if drafted?
PostPosted: Sat Feb 16, 2013 3:51 pm 
Offline
Draught Guru
Draught Guru
User avatar

Joined: Mon Oct 01, 2007 7:32 am
Posts: 4912
http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/0ap10000 ... -nfl-draft
food for thought

_________________
"what if there were no hypothetical situations?"


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: What position would make the most impact if drafted?
PostPosted: Sun Feb 17, 2013 3:27 am 
Offline
Superstar
Superstar

Joined: Sat Jan 29, 2005 8:57 pm
Posts: 4478
I don't think we're ready for a 3-4.... Guys like some have projected as playing outside are really slow like Bierman & Abe. Peterson should be finished.

I'm still one of the few who still really think TD. is special. His position is more high profile than anyone's but should Tony G. stay for one more year why wouldn't we have the same chances as last year?? We have some reserves on the Offensive line that can still improve; and next years pass rush won't be worse than last years.

We've really improved every year under TD. or done something we hadn't done before.
Sure there's lots of second guessing that is correct, but we've been a steady improving franchise.

Who's at fault for not going to a Super Bowl, well its still T.D. for he gets our players. The
nine year average that was mentioned elsewhere I thought was very fair....

_________________
"Everything Counts"
Cyril


Image


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: What position would make the most impact if drafted?
PostPosted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:23 am 
Offline
Superstar
Superstar

Joined: Tue Jan 10, 2006 3:15 pm
Posts: 4191
I like TD Cyril. However, I continue to believe that the Julio Jones trade set the franchise back two years. We gave up 3 or 4 potential starters for him. It's not hard to imagine the team with a better OG, a better DE, perhaps even an additional complementary receiver, not as good as Jones, but someone that Ryan can throw to.

And again, I don't want you to make the mistake of thinking that I don't like Jones. He's a fantastic player, and his performance against the 49ers was fantastic. The problem is, it wasn't enough for us to win. The areas that we needed help in were exposed, and ultimately led to the loss.

Here's the problem... Jones is a complementary piece in our offense. We're missing some cornerstone players on our offensive and defensive lines. We were really in a perfect position to deal with some of those areas in the previous two drafts, assuming that we didn't make the Jones trade. Two years later, we still haven't addressed the two most glaring problems on our team. (OG and DE) We'll have to see if we do anything about it this year.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: What position would make the most impact if drafted?
PostPosted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 1:39 pm 
Offline
Purveyor of Truth & Justice
Purveyor of Truth & Justice
User avatar

Joined: Thu Dec 23, 2004 3:03 pm
Posts: 25774
Location: North Carolina
Cyril wrote:
His position is more high profile than anyone's but should Tony G. stay for one more year why wouldn't we have the same chances as last year??

I would agree, keeping Gonzalez would be a big factor in the Falcosn being able to "maintain" along with upgrading the running game. If they were able to re-sign Gonzo, pick up a OG like Levitre, and draft a good RB on the first 2 days of the draft, I would believe that this team has a chance to make a deep run in 2013.

But at this point in time, I only really see 1 of those 3 things happening (drafting the RB), so I'm not overly optimistic.

Cyril wrote:
We have some reserves on the Offensive line that can still improve; and next years pass rush won't be worse than last years.

You're probably right, but I wouldn't take that for granted. Abe and Babs are our two best pass rushers, and Father Time is still the undisputed undefeated heavyweight champion of the world.

_________________
"Vincere scis, Hannibal, victoria uti nescis" -- Maharbal, 216 B.C.E.


Top
 Profile E-mail  
 
 Post subject: Re: What position would make the most impact if drafted?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 10:44 am 
Offline
Draught Guru
Draught Guru
User avatar

Joined: Mon Oct 01, 2007 7:32 am
Posts: 4912
http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/0ap10000 ... -nfl-draft

Quarterback
1. Geno Smith, West Virginia
2. Matt Barkley, USC
3. Mike Glennon, NC State
4. Ryan Nassib, Syracuse
5. Landry Jones, Oklahoma


Running Back
1. Eddie Lacy, Alabama
2. Montee Ball, Wisconsin
3. Andre Ellington, Clemson
4. Giovani Bernard, North Carolina
5. Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina

Wide Receiver
1. Cordarrelle Patterson, Tennessee
2. Keenan Allen, Cal
3. Terrance Williams, Baylor
4. Tavon Austin, West Virginia
5. Quinton Patton, Louisiana Tech

Tight End
1. Tyler Eifert, Notre Dame
2. Zach Ertz, Stanford
3. Gavin Escobar, San Diego State
4. Travis Kelce, Cincinnati
5. Jordan Reed, Florida

Center
1. Travis Frederick, Wisconsin
2. Brian Schwenke, Cal
3. Barrett Jones, Alabama
4. Khaled Holmes, USC
5. Braxston Cave, Notre Dame

Guard
1. Chance Warmack, Alabama
2. Jonathan Cooper, North Carolina
3. Larry Warford, Kentucky
4. Kyle Long, Oregon
5. Brian Winters, Kent State

Tackle
1. Luke Joeckel, Texas A&M
2. Eric Fisher, Central Michigan
3. Lane Johnson, Oklahoma
4. D.J. Fluker, Alabama
T-5. Menelik Watson, Florida State
T-5. Justin Pugh, Syracuse


Unlock HQ Video HQ video delivered by Akamai
Defensive End
1. Bjoern Werner, Florida State
2. Damontre Moore, Texas A&M
3. Ezekiel Ansah, BYU
4. Sam Montgomery, LSU
T-5. Datone Jones, UCLA
T-5. Margus Hunt, SMU

Defensive Tackle
1. Sharrif Floyd, Florida
2. Star Lotulelei, Utah
3. Sheldon Richardson, Missouri
4. Sylvester Williams, North Carolina
T-5. Kawann Short, Purdue
T-5. Johnathan Hankins, Ohio State

Outside linebacker
1. Dion Jordan, Oregon
2. Jarvis Jones, Georgia
3. Khaseem Greene, Rutgers
4. Barkevious Mingo, LSU
5. Arthur Brown, Kansas State

Brooks: Five best fits for Te'o
Manti Te'o is one of the NFL draft's most intriguing prospects. Where will he land? Bucky Brooks finds five solid fits. More ...
Inside linebacker
1. Alec Ogletree, Georgia
2. Manti Te'o, Notre Dame
3. Kevin Minter, LSU
4. Kevin Reddick, North Carolina
5. Kiko Alonso, Oregon

Cornerback
1. Dee Milliner, Alabama
2. Xavier Rhodes, Florida State
3. Johnthan Banks, Mississippi State
4. Desmond Trufant, Washington
5. Jordan Poyer, Oregon State

Safety
1. Kenny Vaccaro, Texas
2. Matt Elam, Florida
3. Johnathan Cyprien, Florida International
4. Eric Reid, LSU
5. Zeke Motta, Notre Dame

_________________
"what if there were no hypothetical situations?"


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 25 posts ] 

All times are UTC - 4 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 1 guest


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Jump to: