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 Post subject: Week 20 Against The World Thread
PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2013 7:43 pm 
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So pretty much nobody is picking the Falcons and who can blame them? Regardless Falcons are in the dome again and play at their best when the world doubts them. WHO’S READY!!!!

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 Post subject: Re: Week 20 Against The World Thread
PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2013 8:11 pm 
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Hell yeah.... War Falcons!!!

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 Post subject: Re: Week 20 Against The World Thread
PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2013 8:25 pm 
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Isn't this the first time we've ever hosted a NFCC game?

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 Post subject: Re: Week 20 Against The World Thread
PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2013 8:27 pm 
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Kaepernick couldn't handle the noise in Seattle in Week 16. He won't handle it in the Dome next week because I'll be there.
:up:

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 Post subject: Re: Week 20 Against The World Thread
PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2013 9:04 pm 
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Pudge wrote:
Kaepernick couldn't handle the noise in Seattle in Week 16. He won't handle it in the Dome next week because I'll be there.
:up:


Pudge smash!

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 Post subject: Re: Week 20 Against The World Thread
PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2013 10:32 pm 
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Hey, and I will be right beside the man, screaming like a man who's nugget are on fire.

BTW, please indulge me. So every now and then we get a toss out from the old lady's bidness which is a nice 'thank you', and these folks usually give us a 'hoity toity' sideline/clib level/bos seat thing.

Now remember, I've been a fire breathing fan for at least a decade. BUt there were folks in this box with I sh*t you not, NO FALCONS gear on. The guy who 'hosted' us: Liz bought him a jersey last year as a 'thank you' and his wife had no gear on. On a PLAYOFF GAME! unreal. The end of the game was us, a gay couple from Providence, and some other hangers-ons ( everyone else in the box split). But the rest of the crowd was there to the end. Im impressed we actually showed up on time this weekend.

So I had to mind my pees and cues, all afternoon long...Open bar. Smorgasbord. BUt I could not contain my a$$holeness with that onside kick. Let me tell you: Mike Smith, the new stadium: if we had lost, this would be his death knell. BELIEVE.

Man I have to share some videos with you cats that dont live here. I;ve been to Olympics, Braves WS. NOTHING compared to what I experienced today. The train ride, the before the after: unreal.




http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=527 ... tif_t=like




look, I hope all these links work for y'all round the world. The Dome is history. Maybe my weak POS videos tell a story, but I fear it is one fraught with peril as we have moved on. Im telling you the upper sections were ROLLING today. Man: I never saw a Fulton Co game, but today was something else.

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=527 ... =2&theater

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 Post subject: Re: Week 20 Against The World Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jan 14, 2013 12:03 am 
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Luxury box game experience sucks. Been there and done that. I was up in the nosebleeds with the Proletariat. I've sat all over that Dome and I'll take the "cheap seats" any day over most of the others. My ideal seat is front row 50 on the 300 level. I don't need no stinkin caviar!

Pudge, we gotta hook up with you guys somehow. Come down to the Roost TG. Would love to meet you after all these years!

And, yeah, i've been to lots of games too. I was in Minnesota when we won it all but I think this may have been the most emotionally wrenching sporting event I have ever experienced. Tears like Tony.

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 Post subject: Re: Week 20 Against The World Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jan 14, 2013 12:24 am 
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backnblack wrote:
Luxury box game experience sucks. Been there and done that. I was up in the nosebleeds with the Proletariat. I've sat all over that Dome and I'll take the "cheap seats" any day over most of the others. My ideal seat is front row 50 on the 300 level. I don't need no stinkin caviar!

Pudge, we gotta hook up with you guys somehow. Come down to the Roost TG. Would love to meet you after all these years!

And, yeah, i've been to lots of games too. I was in Minnesota when we won it all but I think this may have been the most emotionally wrenching sporting event I have ever experienced. Tears like Tony.



well, my man BnB. Maybe you can hang with us after, win or lose? I've got a booking right around ther corner. Edgewood Corner Tavern. Firming it up tonite! Ill bring my strat-copy. You can sit in if'n ya want

we dont do just jazz:http://clatl.com/atlanta/best-local-jazz-act/BestOf?oid=6310926

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 Post subject: Re: Week 20 Against The World Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jan 14, 2013 12:39 am 
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That would be great but will have to see what wifey can do. She has been coming with me lately and is a school teacher. Maybe she can take off Monday? Not easy to do in Special Ed!

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 Post subject: Re: Week 20 Against The World Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jan 14, 2013 8:03 am 
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backnblack wrote:
That would be great but will have to see what wifey can do. She has been coming with me lately and is a school teacher. Maybe she can take off Monday? Not easy to do in Special Ed!

MLK day! no school next monday :dance:

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 Post subject: Re: Week 20 Against The World Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jan 14, 2013 8:53 am 
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Really? I imagine she will have it off although this year they have compressed the school year by two weeks as a cost saving move and have elminated some trad holidays. That would be awesome. Funny story. I used to work at a state park here in town about 1980 and at that time the offical state calander called it MLK Day/Robert E Lee's birthday.

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 Post subject: Re: Week 20 Against The World Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jan 14, 2013 12:39 pm 
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I figure there are going to be about 600 people that are gonna want to hang out pre/post-game, so I'm flexible. Since I'll be hanging with fun gus, I'll be his chihuahua that he carries in his purse. But I'd like to meet many of the Roosters if possible.

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 Post subject: Re: Week 20 Against The World Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jan 14, 2013 1:18 pm 
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The only thing that worries me about the Niners is that Colin Kaepernick is just like Russell Wilson and Cam Newton. Unlike Wilson the dude is 6'4" and doesn't have any issues with obstructed views down field and at 230lbs he is close to the same size as Newton. He seems to be less of a headcase vs. Newton as well.

Considering both Wilson and Newton have ripped the Atlanta defense a new one; one could anticipate Kaepernick will have a big game.

Probably the most important stat line is the two games Newton had against Atlanta:

15/24, 62% Completion, 215 Yards, 2 Pa TD's & 9 Carries for 86 YDS, 1 TD

23/35, 65% Completion, 287 YDS, 2 Pa TD's & 9 Carries for 116 YDS, 1 TD

And... IMO the Niner Receivers are a pretty major step up from the Panthers group as is the TE position.

Thank God this game is in the Georgia Dome.

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 Post subject: Re: Week 20 Against The World Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jan 14, 2013 3:25 pm 
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Pudge wrote:
I figure there are going to be about 600 people that are gonna want to hang out pre/post-game, so I'm flexible. Since I'll be hanging with fun gus, I'll be his chihuahua that he carries in his purse. But I'd like to meet many of the Roosters if possible.

Pudge I have to go to the event venue before the game and drop off some gear, so I'll meet ya in the seats! Here is a pic of me so you will recognize me:

Image
:mrgreen:



If it;s been awhile since you've been back to the Dome. you should arrive early and see all the pregame shenanigans! Plus, I think Monkee and the Roosters are in Lot A ( the gulch) ! :dance:

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 Post subject: Re: Week 20 Against The World Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 3:07 am 
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Matt Ryan MUST play better in this game. he has yet to play mistake-free football in a playoff game. we can't give SanFran extra chances in this game. I know our offense can handle this defense because we've proven to do fairly well against some great defensive units already this season.

we will go as far as Matt Ryan will take us. our defense will create at least one turnover and they will make big plays for us. we just have to capitalize on offense.

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 Post subject: Re: Week 20 Against The World Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 9:21 am 
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I'm a little worried about our run defense. This isn't like other teams we've played like Seattle & Washington. San Fran has a physical, smashmouth sort of line that can run it down our throats. If our front 4 haven't come to play, then I don't think the defense is going to be much to write home about.

Again, I think the key is for the Falcons to get up early and make San Francisco 1-dimensional offensively. The few times they've gotten down early in games, they've struggled to come back. The Giants and 2nd Seahawks games are two prominent examples.

If the Falcons can't get off to a fast start and are forced to have to trade blows with the 49ers for 4 quarters, then I don't think that plays into the Falcons favor, but definitely the 49ers.

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 Post subject: Re: Week 20 Against The World Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 10:43 am 
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Please dont think Im being a Debbie Downer, or a Doubting Thomas. :ninja:

But I've got some questions about certain things that we definitely NEED to correct this weekend to secure a win.

First check out this clip of Ryan watching the winning kick and pay close attention to Corey Peters.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=en ... 7NfUc&NR=1

Now everyone knows Im a huge Peters fan, but WTF? He is STANDING ON THE F*CKING FIELD!~!!!!!

That is sh*tty discipline right there. You can't ever possibly give the refs a chance to blow a 12th man penalty when the kicker is kicking a 49 yard playoff winning kick. Now, I know someone will say 'hey it's no big deal, the refs would never call that one, etc' but seriously we cant afford to be still making this mistake at this point.

Also, the decision to squibkick. I just dont agree with it. I know Leon Washington is a beast, you tell your kicker to put it out of the endzone and let them start the 20 with what, 7 second to go? They are saying it just wasn't executed right, but I dont believe that was a smart call.

Im buyin in just like Pudge, but if we dont win, Im not gonna be crushed. In fact, I think we will win: but we cant have these dumb little things happening. What will crush me or piss me off is if we play a competitive game, but lose because of an ingame bad call or stupid penalties, from the least penalized team in the league.

Ill get over it, but it's these little things that terrify me..

That being said, some are questioning kicking with 13 second left instead of running another play to kill the clock. I agree with Smith on this one. Too many things can happen on that play, and just take the 3 and hope your defense ( with help from Julio ) can hold them off.

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 Post subject: Re: Week 20 Against The World Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 2:56 pm 
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It's going to be interesting at 6:30 on Sunday, what sort of game we'll be reflecting upon...

Will it be the near-perfect game that I think many of us believe will be required to win?

Will it be the typical loss the Falcons tend to have against quality teams, where they shoot themselves in the foot too many times and don't respond well when they do?

Will it be one that most in the media expect where the Falcons control the game from start to finish?

The 2nd one I believe is what you're talking about fun gus, where they have a few errors, but they prove to be huge setbacks. Where you have a 3rd & 4 and you have a false start, and now all of sudden you're in 3rd & long and you don't convert and that kills a drive. There's just a couple of opportunities that you have, but you just don't take advantage, as the Seahawks did not against us last week. Or as the Falcons typically don't do in their losses to the Saints.

So we'll see how "special" or different this Falcon team is in comparison to past Falcon teams.

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 Post subject: Re: Week 20 Against The World Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 3:39 pm 
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With the size of the SF O-line instead of our three DT package why not come out with four DT package consisting of T.Robertson and Vance at DT and Babs and Peters at DE and play Abe and the beer man on passing downs. The Niners dont do a lot to fool you they just line up with those big bodies and try to beat you up until you quit. We need to be sound on D against the read option. This game right here is when we need Julio to absolutley destroy the guy who lines up across from him and Gonzo needs to contol the middle of the field they have some good ILBs but they are still LBs. We can win this game but only if Matt Ryan comes to play and doesnt give them extra oppurtunities.

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 Post subject: Re: Week 20 Against The World Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 6:17 pm 
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Pudge wrote:
Kaepernick couldn't handle the noise in Seattle in Week 16. He won't handle it in the Dome next week because I'll be there.
:up:



http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/201212231 ... &tab=recap


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dwTl_yMM8d4 :mrgreen:

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 Post subject: Re: Week 20 Against The World Thread
PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2013 3:58 pm 
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http://www.mercurynews.com/sports/ci_22 ... beat-49ers

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 Post subject: Re: Week 20 Against The World Thread
PostPosted: Thu Jan 17, 2013 2:12 pm 
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I will at least say this... Playing Russell Wilson and the Seahawks was the best possible pre-49'er warmer up this team could have asked for. The only real difference is that Kaepernick is taller that Wilson.

As an extra special bonus Atlanta gets to deal with Cam Newton twice a year which is a big freak than Kaepernick.

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 Post subject: Re: Week 20 Against The World Thread
PostPosted: Thu Jan 17, 2013 4:22 pm 
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dirtybirdnw wrote:
I will at least say this... Playing Russell Wilson and the Seahawks was the best possible pre-49'er warmer up this team could have asked for. The only real difference is that Kaepernick is taller that Wilson.

As an extra special bonus Atlanta gets to deal with Cam Newton twice a year which is a big freak than Kaepernick.

I agree 100% with this. The 49ers are just a better version of the Seahawks. I think people make the assumption that because we barely beat the Seahawks, we aren't going to beat the 49ers. But I think/expect the Falcons will rise to the challenge.

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 Post subject: Re: Week 20 Against The World Thread
PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2013 3:30 am 
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Cute stats say we got a 45% chance of winning. :so:



http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2013 ... ck-effect/

January 17, 2013, 7:02 am8 Comments
Conference Title Game Probabilities, and the Kaepernick Effect
By BRIAN BURKE

The second-year quarterback Colin Kaepernick has certainly fulfilled the expectations of 49ers Coach Jim Harbaugh, who elected to start him over the veteran Alex Smith midway through the season. Kaepernick has proved to be a definite upgrade, bringing two new dimensions to the 49ers’ offense: his ability to run and his ability to throw deep. It’s very difficult to assess the value of a player like Kaepernick, but let’s try anyway.

After running the numbers as usual for this Sunday’s conference championship games, I reran them two more times. If we used only the offensive statistics from this season’s Alex Smith-led 49ers in the game probability model, San Francisco would barely be favorites against Atlanta at 51/49. But if we use only the stats for Kaepernick’s version of the 49er offense, the model estimates the game at 59/41.

This would mean, in comparison to Smith, Kaepernick adds about 8 percentage points of an edge over an opponent. That may not sound like much, but it is. It’s the equivalent of 4 points in terms of a conventional point spread. Earlier in the season, when Ben Roethlisberger was replaced by Byron Leftwich, the spread on that week’s Steelers game dropped six points. So think of the difference between Smith and Kaepernick as about two-thirds the difference between Roethlisberger and Leftwich.

And keep in mind that Smith was no slouch in 2012. Until the injury that gave Kaepernick his opportunity, this was turning into Smith’s career year. Although his conventional quarterback rating of 104 is highly inflated by his style of high-percentage short passes, Smith was consistently effective.

As exciting and efficient as Kaepernick is, his 49ers are on the road against the best Falcons team in recent memory. It should be close, but San Francisco has the edge.

Here are the game probabilities for the conference championships.

Pwin GAME Pwin
0.55 San Francisco at Atlanta 0.45
0.33 Baltimore at New England 0.67


Brian Burke, a former Navy pilot who has taken up the less dangerous hobby of N.F.L. analysis, operates Advanced NFL Stats, a blog about football, statistics and game theory.

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 Post subject: Re: Week 20 Against The World Thread
PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2013 7:59 am 
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The 1972 Miami Dolphins won all 17 games they played that year but they could never defeat a perception problem.

According to pro-football-reference.com, the unbeaten Dolphins were considered a pick 'em selection for their AFC divisional and title games and were underdogs against the Washington Redskins in Super Bowl VII.

The reasons for this lack of respect stemmed from Miami being seen as a team that racked up its unbeaten record against weak competition and it was assumed the Dolphins would falter once they squared off against playoff-caliber opponents.

This year's Atlanta Falcons are not unbeaten but in many ways they look to be in the same boat, as they are considered underdogs against the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship Game.

This is understandable at some level considering that, according to a study done by ESPN Stats & Information, the Falcons had the easiest schedule in the NFL this year. Add that to their late-game collapse against the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC divisional round and the 49ers' dominant win over the Green Bay Packers and it's easy to see why Atlanta has perception issues.

Having noted those, the truth of the matter is there are at least 10 reasons to think that the Falcons will be like the '72 Dolphins and show the world their underdog status is undeserved.

Matty Ice is more than just a cool nickname

The general takeaway from that Seahawks-Falcons game is Seattle's comeback grit, but it should be remembered just as much for Matt Ryan's moxie in driving his team 41 yards in only 23 seconds to set up a game-winning field goal.


This type of occurrence has become second nature for Ryan as, according to pro-football-reference.com, during the regular season he led the Falcons on a game-winning drive (defined as an offensive score in the fourth quarter or overtime that puts the winning team ahead for the last time) on seven occasions this season, a number that ties him with Andrew Luck for best in the league.

The Falcons' ability to dominate top-level secondaries

To get a true sense of just how strong the Falcons' passing offense is, consider that last week Ryan posted an incredibly high 85.4 Total QBR mark against a secondary that has a Pro Bowl free safety (Earl Thomas), a rare shutdown cornerback who has terrific ball hawking skills (eight interceptions) and should have made the Pro Bowl (Richard Sherman), a very good cornerback who has nine picks over the past two seasons (Brandon Browner) and one of the most feared hitters in the NFL (Kam Chancellor). If the Falcons could post great numbers against this group, there isn't a secondary in the NFL that Atlanta should fear.

The 49ers' pass defense may not be as good as is generally thought

San Francisco finished second in the league in passing yards per attempt (6.1) and placed six defensive players on the 2013 Pro Bowl squad, and yet this group ended up finishing 15th in Total QBR allowed to opposing teams. That number indicates this platoon does not fare as well in the area of situational football as their overall numbers indicate.

The game is likely to be a shootout

Atlanta scored 20 or more points in all but two of its games this year and San Francisco allowed 31 or more points in three of its past four games.

That trend points toward this game potentially being a shootout. A game of that nature would favor the Falcons, as they are 6-3 this year in contests in which the other team scores 20 or more points. By contrast, the 49ers are 4-3-1 in games in which the opponent scores 20 or more points. In addition, it should be noted that San Francisco scored fewer than 20 points in five games this year, including two of its past six in total and two of its past three on the road.

Colin Kaepernick tends to struggle when forced to throw the ball often

A shootout doesn't look to favor Kaepernick. He has thrown the ball 30 or more times on three occasions this year and two of those games resulted in his lowest YPA totals of his season.

This is not merely a pro-level trend for Kaepernick, as he had a solid but not spectacular 131.6 passer rating in the 13 games in college in which he threw 30 or more passes. Those mediocre figures were also skewed by a couple of games against creampuff opponents and thus indicate Kaepernick has had very little consistent collegiate/pro success when forced to be a high-volume passer.

Home/road splits

In roughly half a season as an NFL starter and his last two years as a college starter, Kaepernick has been appreciably better at home than on the road.

For proof, check out his home/road splits in that time frame:


Kaepernick Home/Road Splits
Season Home/Away Pass Comp Pass Att Pass Yds YPA TD Int Rush att Rush Yds YPC TD
2012 NFL Home 83 130 1173 9.0 6 1 44 359 8.2 5
2012 NFL Away 70 119 904 7.6 6 3 35 237 6.8 2
2009-10 CFB Home 199 306 2628 8.6 20 2 163 1402 8.6 23
2009-10 CFB Away 165 273 2077 7.6 19 10 173 984 5.7 13
All home -- 282 436 3801 8.7 26 3 207 1761 8.5 28
All away -- 235 392 2981 7.6 25 13 208 1221 5.9 15


That's more than a yard of drop-off in yards per attempt (YPA), a huge increase in interceptions and more than 2 yards of difference in rush yards per carry (YPC).

Those numbers might partially explain why, over the course of his football career, Kaepernick is 21-5 at home and 16-11 on the road. That doesn't bode well for a 49ers club that lost two of its last three road games this season.

Read-option runs are not likely to win this game for San Francisco

The Falcons faced four read-option quarterbacks this year (Cam Newton twice, Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson) and they allowed that trio to gain 269 yards on 26 rush attempts, numbers that would seem to suggest that the read-option will be a huge problem for Atlanta.

The issue with that assessment is those numbers were mostly compiled via two long gains by Newton (a 32-yard read-option run in Week 4 and a 72-yard read-option touchdown run in Week 14). Take those plays out of the equation and Atlanta gave up 165 rush yards on 24 carries in four games to read-option quarterbacks, so for the most part the Falcons were able to keep this type of running in check.

It should also be noted that prior to his record-setting performance against Green Bay (which was assisted by the Packers' odd defensive game plan and lack of in-game adjustments), Kaepernick's best rushing total of the season was an 84-yard mark against the Rams in Week 13 that was bolstered by a 50-yard scramble. San Francisco's offense has not revolved around Kaepernick's read-option running for most of the year and Atlanta should be able to make sure that doesn't happen this week.

San Francisco gives up a lot of sacks

John Abraham's injury will hurt Atlanta's pass rush but let's not forget that San Francisco ended the year with the third highest sack-allowed percentage in the NFL (8.7). Some of that had to do with the frequent use of single-read plays where Alex Smith didn't have the first receiver open and then couldn't make a play with his feet, but Kaepernick also has a fairly high sack percentage this year. Joe Staley's injury could also impact this matchup and help the Falcons tally a couple of big plays in this category.

Aldon Smith isn't the same without a fully healthy Justin Smith

From Week 4 of the 2011 season through Week 14 of the 2012 season, Aldon Smith had at least one sack in 21 out of 28 games and never went more than two games in a row without a sack.

Over the past four games, he has not posted a single sack and that streak perfectly dovetails with Justin Smith's injury. This pass rush simply isn't the same without these two being able to work together at full speed and Atlanta's pass protection should benefit accordingly.

Atlanta has a significant edge at kicker

This could very well be a close game that comes down to which team can convert a higher percentage of field goals. That factor favors Atlanta since David Akers, San Francisco's specialist in this area, had the second worst field goal percentage among qualifying kickers this year.

Put all 10 of these advantages together and it should be enough to see Atlanta win a game that is just as much a battle for respect as it is for a berth in Super Bowl XLVII.

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