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NFP Friday Buzz: Bowles, Saban & more

Intel, Obeservations and Whispers from The NFP Insider Network National Football Post
December 14, 2012, 11:00 AM EST

*Falcons offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter is catching the eyes of some NFL front offices and is likely to be a candidate for a head coach opening. He interviewed for the Broncos vacancy two years ago and we hear he impressed John Elway mightily. Elway has told people it was very close between Koetter and John Fox.

*One reason Todd Bowles may have been promoted to defensive coordinator by the Eagles is he had been the league’s informal No. 1 candidate to become the next minority head coach, and the plan was to push him for head coaching interviews. Even the brain trust in Philly had him on a short list to succeed Andy Reid. A solid showing by the Eagles defense would have easily put him in the driver’s seat for upcoming interviews. However the performance of the Eagles D will most likely seriously diminish his stock as a head coaching candidate. The top minority candidate now could be Giants defensive coordinator Perry Fewell.

*Nick Saban probably isn’t going to make the jump to the NFL. He’s comfortable being a college head coach and he has a good situation at Alabama. But the NFL is going to come knocking. And, from what we are hearing, Saban will listen. Like he always does. They say there you can buy anything for the right price, and people in the league believe you can definitely buy Saban if you want to pay a ridiculous price.

*A lot of the credit for drafting Russell Wilson should be given to Seahawks general manager John Schneider. He had conviction about Wilson early in the process, and was determined to take him no matter what. However, head coach Pete Carroll also became a fan and supported pulling the trigger on Wilson in the third round. Having the general manager and head coach on the same page on draft day helps to create a stable and fast track development environment for any player.

*Jim Schwartz is expected to be safe in Detroit despite the fact that the Lions have had a very disappointing season, there are some organizational issues, and Schwartz’ four-year win percentage is .361. Why? Because he signed a five-year contract last offseason. It is unlikely Lions ownership would eat four years of the deal.

*Bill Kuharich has been out of the league since being let go in a purge by the Chiefs three years ago, but we’re hearing he could be getting back in this year. Kuharich’s record as a talent evaluator both in Kansas City and New Orleans is pretty solid, and NFL front office men have taken notice.

Its about time someone noticed him!!

If I remember correctly Coach Smith was blasted for just choosing someone he knew; someone who be a puppet for his conservative football. Just because they both coached in Jacksonville together coach Smith was blasted. Well its obvious Koetter is calling his own plays!!

D. Koetter has used Julio & Roddy and Tony G. masterfully. I don't know who gets credit for teaching Matt to finally throw the long ball with accuracy, but Coach Koetter is
the best thing to happen for this Atlanta Offense at this moment in time. I hope nobody gets him away!!

The hiring of the two new coordinators should be seen as another feather in tD's hat, wouldn't you say? I think they have both been unqualified successes and the guys they replaced have really had terrible years. I thought the play calling in the Lions game on offense was some of the more exotic stuff I'd seen this year such as the TD to Palmer. Run game is still sub par but, man, Matt is flinging it all over the field.

The Falcons offense certainly passes the eyeball test, as they are much harder to defend this year than in previous years. Although on paper they are probably about the same as last year's in overall effectiveness.

I think the honeymoon period for Koetter is about to expire for the majority of the fan base. It's going to be interesting to see what growth the offense makes next year. Hopefully the GM will give the OC an effective ground attack to work with. But I know if the Falcons maintains the status quo next year, you're not going to hear as many folks "gushing" about Koetter 12 months from now. That's just the way it always is.

2011 Mularkey Offense Vs 2012 Koetter Offense

2011 PPG - 23.8
2012 PPG -26.8

2011 rushing yards per game : 111.6
2012 rushing yards per game : 88.8

2011 passing yards per game : 257.4
2012 passing yards per game : 286.4

2011 TOTAL OFFENSE : 369.0
2012 TOTAL OFFENSE : 375.2

2011 First downs per game :21.4
2012 First downs per game : 21.9

2011 Time of possession per game : 31:45
2012 Time of possession per game : 31:04

2011 3rd down conversion : 43.4%
2012 3rd down conversion : 46.8%

2011 : Yards per play : 5.5
2012 : Yards per play : 5.9

2011 : Yards per completion : 11.2
2012 : Yards per completion : 10.9

2011 : QB sacked per game :1.6
2012 : QB sacked per game 1.7

Matt Ryan 2011: CMP% 61.3 Yards 4,117 AVG 7.38 TD 29 RAT 90.2
Matt Ryan 2012: CMP% 69.0 Yards 4,481 AVG 7.85 TD 31 RAT 100.2

2011 Pass attempts per game : 37.4
2012 Pass attempts per game : 38.1

2011 pass completions per game : 22.9
2012 pass completions per game : 26.3


2011 incompletions per game : 14.5
2012 incompletions per game : 11.8

2011 rushing attempts per game :27.9
2012 rushing attempts per game : 24.1

2011 rushing yards per game : 111.6
2012 rushing yards per game : 88.8


2011 rushing first downs per game : 6.1
2012 rushing first downs per game : 4.5

2011 rush yards per attempt : 4.0
2012 rush yards per attempts : 3.7

2012 Falcons offensive touchdowns : 42
2011 Falcons offensive touchdowns : 43

2012 - 20+ yard plays (52), 40+ yard plays (12)
2011 - 20+ yard plays (67), 40+ yard plays (14)

I got this from the Roost, so I cannot vouch for it's authenticity

Like I said, about the same. Mostly improvement this year, but not enough that I would say it's overly significant. Again, I think the real difference is that having Koetter is making DCs work harder to figure out the Falcons, as opposed to them actually being significantly better. In 2011, DCs just dusted off their 2010 gameplans, and they worked perfectly. Next year, without growth/modifications by Koetter, you could easily start to see more defenses "figure out" the Falcons and thus see some drop-off.

The main thing that is drastically different IMO from last year to this year is Ryan's deep passing. And it's interesting because that is the probably one of the major areas that naturally fluctuates from year to year. Here are those numbers:

2011 - 15 of 60 (25%) for 497 yds, 4 TDs, 2 INTs, 3 drops, YPA = 8.28, YPC = 33.13
2012 - 27 of 62 (43.5%) for 913 yds, 10 TDs, 2 INTs, 2 drops, YPA = 14.73, YPC = 33.81

Some other interesting stats to compare:

2011 3rd Conversion Rate Passing (Ryan only):

3rd >6 = 41 of 104 (39%)
3rd <6 = 34 of 60 (57%)
3rd 11+ = 7 of 38 (18%)

2012 3rd Conversion Rate Passing (Ryan only):

3rd >6 = 38 of 87 (44%)
3rd <6 = 38 of 60 (63%)
3rd 11+ = 5 of 25 (20%)

Michael Turner Breakaway Run Stats (runs of 15+ yds):

2011 - 21
2012 - 8

Turner's YPC on Non-Breakaway Runs

2011 - 280 carries for 759 yards = 2.71
2012 - 208 carries for 580 yards = 2.79


BTW, if the Falcons receivers dropped passes in 2011 at the same rate they did in 2012, then Ryan's completion % would have gone up nearly 3 points.

He had 43 drops on 566 attempts in 2011 (7.6%). This year, he has 28 on 571 (4.9%). This year's drop rate applied to last year would have resulted in roughly 15 more completions, which would result in last year's completion rate being 64.0% instead of 61.3%. That also probably adds another 180 yards to his total (15 x his yards per completion), and 1 more TD, bumping his passer rating up to 96.3 instead of 92.2.

I would also argue that the bump in Ryan's production is mostly due to Turner's dramatic drop off in performance. The Falcons couldn't lean on this years rushing attack even if they wanted to.

Atlanta has had to rely on the pass so much due to the lack of a real running game it makes a natural bump in passing statistics.

Yet despite all the praise of Koetter the Falcon passing attack can still completely disappear for quarters or even an entire game at time.