I'm going to defend it in this sense...
Your argument against cute stats apparently is that it is not perfect. Hmm, what is?
You state that "cute stats" should be taken with a grain of salt. But I would say ALL
football prognostications should be taken with a grain of salt, regardless of whether they are based off cute stats or the eyeball test or whatever.
I'm waiting for your treatise on the alternative to cute stats that is so much better, and much more worthy of our attention?
a little touchy there, Pudge?
First, I baited that thread and you took it hook, line and sinker!
I knew, absolutely knew, that you couldn't resist: and your response would be 'okay genius, where do you go for YOUR prognostications?'
Here is the problem: when you put yourself out there as some sort of mathematical 'expert' and claim your system is the 'best' then you have to take the heat when your 'system' gets burned. DVOA is okay, but much like new-school measurements PECOTA and CHONE for last baseball season, trusting supposedly air-tight applied math to win games doesn't always work out too well..They claim it's objective because it's all stats, but that's not exactly the case. The determination of how certain things qualify under their categories are very much subjective and opinion. The point values and determining a "successful play" to asses a plays value are quite subjective even though they try to claim otherwise.
So here is the part where Pudge pouts a little and demands to know who I would go to..My answer is simple: Vegas.
The legalized gambling circuit actually HAS $$ on the 'line' whereas guys like Profootballfocus and FootballOutsiders are actually getting paid to give thier picks. Rather then trust DVOA, or DYAR. or LGTB, or whatever: there are a number of Vegas sites that regularly perform better then any of those clowns. Sure, USA Today and ESPN cant use 'My Cousin Vinny' so they have to go to these guys. But sports book operators look at the entirity of the information ( yes Pudge, pat yourself on the back here because Vegas DOES read FootballClownsiders) but they also use thier 'eyeball test'. Vegaswatch is pretty good usually, and they have alot of complicated cuteness that would appeal to certain types, but I like to look to Jay Kornegay, who runs the sportbook at the Las Vegas Hilton, and Dave Tuley from ViewfromVegas. Dave appears regularly in ESPN, so he has access to some heady stuff. They take a look at each of the weekend's NFL games by getting the "public perception" from the consensus numbers at ESPN.com's Picks Central, which also has a lot of great information to help in your handicapping, and also gives the wiseguys'
view of the game.
Pudge your right pobodys nerfect, and all prognostications should be taken with a grain of salt...If you look at this guy vs Football Outsiders, he regularly outperforms them..but some guys out there like to say they got a special system of looking at cute stats, and then never show up to take the fall..