If the Falcons win the Super Bowl this year, then the trade was definitely worth it. Because whether people want to admit it or not, the entire reason for making the trade was to push the Falcons over the hump from 2010 to be a Super Bowl team. So the ultimate measuring stick is whether they win it all.
Now I don't think it's fair to think that the trade is a bad trade if the Falcons don't win it all. But I think they have to make significant strides towards that.
Because the thing is that this isn't just your normal draft pick. Julio has had around a dozen good games. And if he was just a normal #1 or #2 pick, we could declare already that it was a good draft pick. But because we gave up an extra #1, #2, and two #4s, then you can't simply judge the trade/pick by the usual standards.
The Falcons paid an extremely high premium for Jones (the same that the Bears paid for Jay Cutler), so judging this trade by the usual standards isn't the right way to judge it. The value that Jones adds to the team has to be comparable to what 3 or 4 well-spent draft picks (since TD is the bestest GM ever!
For me, the way I see it if Jones was having as good a season as Roddy was having, I would say without a doubt then the trade was worth it. Roddy is playing at an elite level. Is Jones helping him do that? Absolutely. But Roddy was an elite receiver (or close to it) before Jones arrived. Now, Roddy is having probably his best season ever, and I think that is the difference Jones is making with him, in that you go from a guy that in previous years was a Top 5 receiver, to a guy now that is perhaps #1 or #2 in the league thru the first half of the season.
But I think the disconnect here is that many of the people that are gushing about this trade, think of it as all or nothing. That the alternative to making the Jones trade is the Falcons get absolutely nothing. And I think that is completely the wrong way of looking at it. IMO, the alternative is probably the passing game being 10-15% worse than it is currently with Jones (if say it's Torrey Smith or Denarius Moore instead of him), but the running game is probably 20-30% better (if say those 2 #1s were used on O-linemen).
IMO, unless you can clearly say Jones is like 20-30% better than the alternative WR, then I don't think you can say it was a trade well worth it. And contrary to popular belief, Torrey Smith and Julio Jones thus far in their NFL careers have been about even, and Moore isn't that far behind. If Julio was on Roddy's level, then he would clearly be that much better than the alternative. Now if Julio plays at the level he's played in 3 of the last 4 or so games for the next 8 or so games, then I think at the end of the year I might be willing to change my opinion on the thing, but we're not at the point now.