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 Post subject: thinking of January during the bye week
PostPosted: Mon Oct 22, 2012 12:11 pm 
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Okay, it seems we go through this every year ( at least I do ) where we are scratching our heads and looking to the postseason.....

I got an opportunity to perform in January out of town, and I am trying to deduce when/if we are going to play...Usually Pudge helpes me out on this, and for the most part, he has been right.

Seeing as we are sitting here 6-0 and facing the hard part of the schedule..the rest of the division is 2-4, Panties 1-5 ( :lol: sorry BnB :wink: )..So with 10 games left, the only way I see us losing the division is due to a tragic injury and losing at least 8 of those games. If we go .500, we end the season 11-6, which I can't imagine the Saints or the Bucs making up that ground. So, barring say Matt Ryan eating through a tube, if it plays out like that: how and when would we play?

I guess Im asking your predictions now about January. Do you think we win the division, and get home field and a bye? ( In that case, that makes me a little nervous, because that week off usually I think helps contribute to the Falcons coming out flat). Or, do you see another scenario?

I guess Im thinking we win the division and get that first round bye, which would mean we play at home Jan 12-13th. We win that one, and then we play the winner of the Wild Card on Jan 20th here at home, correct?

So I guess Im seeing the first weekend of Jan as a relatively safe bet to book this gig. Thoughts?

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 Post subject: Re: thinking of January during the bye week
PostPosted: Mon Oct 22, 2012 2:36 pm 
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It's not guaranteed, but pretty close to a slam dunk that the Falcons win the division. We won't know how injuries will effect the next 10 weeks of the season, but let's assume status quo for most teams.

I think at worst, you're looking at a Falcon team that goes 5-5 the rest of the way. But potentially, I think you could see us go 7-3.

I think the best the Saints could finish is 7-3 as well, which obviously still means that even at 5-5 the Falcons win the division.

So I think it's pretty safe to presume you will have the opportunity to see the Falcons play at least 1 playoff game this year in the Georgia Dome.

The bigger question is where will the Falcons be seeded.

We don't have a tough schedule the rest of the way, presumably it's the weakest of the current division winners.

But the Giants are 5-2, and while they have a very tough schedule, many of the good teams we thought this year aren't as good as many thought going into the season. Games vs. CIN, PIT, GB, PHI, NO, BAL, etc. don't appear as formidable now as they did back in August. So it's possible that the Giants could wind up finish 6-3 or 7-2. But given that historically the Giants tend to be underachievers/inconsistent during regular season, let's assume 5 or 6 wins, to allow them to finish 10-6 or 11-5. That means our seeding with them will likely be determined by the winner of our Week 15 matchup.

GB's schedule (4-3) looks pretty easy. Outside their division games and going up against the NYG, they don't really have a tough road. If they play like they've done in recent weeks, you're also looking at a team that is probably going to coast to 10 or 11 wins. It wouldn't shock me if they went 8-1 the rest of the way, assuming they've started to find their stride again offensively.

CHI (4-1) outside the division has HOU and SF. San Fran is a road game, Houston is at home. If you assume they drop 2 in the division, and both those games, at worst you're talking 7-4, again another 11+ win team probably.

Everybody is waiting for MIN (5-2) to fall off. 5 more division games, plus on the road vs. SEA & HOU, probably means 4-5 the rest of the way, so they are probably not giong to win the NFC North, but at 9-7 have a shot at the last wildcard.

SEA (4-3) probably has it relatively. Toughest road games are @CHI, @DET, and home vs. their remaining division opponents, and MIN. Their problem is that they are 0-3 in the division, and basically have to win their remaining 3 division games (all coming in December) to have any shot at winning the West. But it's feasible that Seattle can get to double digits with 6 more wins.

SF (5-2) still has to play NO, @NE, CHI, @SEA, and ARI & STL (each 2x). We're talking maybe 5-4 at worst. But it also wouldn't surprise me to see them go 8-1 either. So they are in the running for the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

Eagles (3-3) are in the mix in NFC East. So far 1-0 in division (beat NYG), and have all 5 of their division games left. Outside division, ATL, @NO, and CIN are probably their 3 toughest games. If they wind up going like 4-2 in the division, they could be a team that gets to 10 or 11 wins as well. I think they probably cap out at 11 though.

DAL (3-3) is also in that mix, because they too beat the Giants, and have 5 division games left. Outside the division, @ATL, @CIN, PIT, NO are their toughest games. If Dallas is un-Dallas, they might surprise with a strong finish and also might be capping out around 11 or so wins.

Long story short, I think the 2 biggest threats to the No. 1 seed are SF and NYG. If either of those teams play up to their capabilities the rest of the way, you're talking about potentially 12 or 13-win seasons, right around where I think the Falcons can potentially finish.

So I think at worst you're looking at the Falcons being a No. 3 seed. But I do think that the Giants will have to start winning their division games if they want to be at the top in the end. So I think in all likelihood the Falcons will finish either No. 1 or No. 2 and get a bye.

But obviously there are still plenty of ACLs and labrums that can get torn over the next 10 weeks that could affect all of this.

Sweet Spots:

ATL (11-13 wins)
SF (11-13 wins)
GB (10-12 wins)
NYG (10-12 wins)
CHI (10-12 wins)
DAL (9-11 wins)
PHI (9-11 wins)
SEA (8-11 wins)
MIN (8-10 wins)
NO (8-10 wins)
ARI (7-9 wins)
WAS (7-9 wins)
DET (7-9 wins)
STL (6-9 wins)
TB (6-9 wins)
CAR (5-8 wins)

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 Post subject: Re: thinking of January during the bye week
PostPosted: Mon Oct 22, 2012 6:54 pm 
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Pudge wrote:
So I think it's pretty safe to presume you will have the opportunity to see the Falcons play at least 1 playoff game this year in the Georgia Dome.



so if your a handicapper, what odds do you give for the Falcons playing a game in New Orleans on Feb 4th?

If this happens, I am GOING to that game. First week of Mardi Gras, and a Falcons Superbowl win in the Superdome? Even if we lose it's worth it. Besides having some family down there I think I can score a ticket from a friend of mine that works for WWL. Hell, even if I have to pay, I'll do it. I would pay up to 5k for a nose bleeder!

If we win, Im taking a picture next to this statue and mailing it to the Mayans:

Image

And, I'll most likely get my a$$ kicked, but Im writing 'After' on a piece of cardboard and Im getting my picture in front of this statue holding the sign so in perspective it says 'afterbirth' :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: thinking of January during the bye week
PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2012 9:17 am 
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At this point the best I could say is 25%. Even if the Falcons get a 1 or 2 seed and get home field, I think teams like San Fran, GB, and NYG all have a good shot of coming to the GA Dome and beating us. SF has a defense that should travel well. We already know Aaron Rodgers is very comfortable indoors, and it'd be the Giants 2nd trip here which as we saw in 2010 for GB was a lot easier. All three teams would have the mental edge which I think is often critical when it comes to playoff games.

I would think you have to favor one of those 4 teams to rep the NFC right now. I think Chicago matches up well against us but I don't think eir O-Line is good enough to win more than 1 playoff game. Same goes for many of the other potential playoff teams.

This obviously could change as the rest of the season plays out. I figure if Peters or someone can give this defense a boost over the latter half of the season, and our passing game becomes more explosive and more consistent, then our chances increase.

BTW if the Falcons do make it to New Orleans, I'll also be there. Probably won't go to the game (I was at Super Bowl 40/PIT v SEA), but at the least will be hanging out in Nawleans with my fellow Falcon fans.

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 Post subject: Re: thinking of January during the bye week
PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:07 am 
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Pudge wrote:
At this point the best I could say is 25%. Even if the Falcons get a 1 or 2 seed and get home field, I think teams like San Fran, GB, and NYG all have a good shot of coming to the GA Dome and beating us. SF has a defense that should travel well. We already know Aaron Rodgers is very comfortable indoors, and it'd be the Giants 2nd trip here which as we saw in 2010 for GB was a lot easier. All three teams would have the mental edge which I think is often critical when it comes to playoff games.

I would think you have to favor one of those 4 teams to rep the NFC right now. I think Chicago matches up well against us but I don't think eir O-Line is good enough to win more than 1 playoff game. Same goes for many of the other potential playoff teams.

This obviously could change as the rest of the season plays out. I figure if Peters or someone can give this defense a boost over the latter half of the season, and our passing game becomes more explosive and more consistent, then our chances increase.

BTW if the Falcons do make it to New Orleans, I'll also be there. Probably won't go to the game (I was at Super Bowl 40/PIT v SEA), but at the least will be hanging out in Nawleans with my fellow Falcon fans.



You should come down here for a playoff game, Pudge. I know you dont like the Dome, but you should experience one playoff game there before it razed. I''ll get you a pair of tickets at face if you need...

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 Post subject: Re: thinking of January during the bye week
PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2012 2:38 pm 
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I'm already trying to make those plans.

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 Post subject: Re: thinking of January during the bye week
PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2012 7:29 pm 
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After going to the playoffs last season, I'm not spending money on nothing for the Falcons until they win a playoff game. 270 bucks down the f'n drain from last season.

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 Post subject: Re: thinking of January during the bye week
PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2012 8:45 pm 
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Emmitt wrote:
After going to the playoffs last season, I'm not spending money on nothing for the Falcons until they win a playoff game. 270 bucks down the f'n drain from last season.



Emmitt: plz splain. Was that a single ticket in the cheap seats? :?:

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 Post subject: Re: thinking of January during the bye week
PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:29 pm 
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Well it was 50 yard line seats but yes cheap seats. Still bitter.

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