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 Post subject: Re: I guess TD got this one right, too.
PostPosted: Mon Oct 22, 2012 12:58 am 
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Confess_Jesus_Now wrote:
Name a 3rd or 4th round pick from last year's draft that would have had the immediate impact that Julio Jones had. Name one that would demand double coverage on a consistent basis...

His name is Denarius Moore and Julio doesn't consistently demand double coverage.

Confess_Jesus_Now wrote:
I think the Julio Jones trade was necessary. Sure, TD may have missed on a Victor Cruz or two, but look what it did for Ryan's numbers in a sub-par offensive scheme.

This is where I vehemently disagree. I believe the Falcons could have upgraded their offense without giving up what they did for Julio Jones. Ryan improved from 2010 to 2011, but how much of that is due to the natural progression of a QB from Year 3 to Year 4. If Julio was so crucial to Ryan's growth, then how come his completion rate and YPA were the same regardless of whether Julio was in the lineup last year. And the improvements this year? HOw do we know that is primarily due to Julio? Isn't everybody convinced that the improvement from Ryan this year is due to Dirk Koetter.

Confess_Jesus_Now wrote:
Not many teams can say they have the offensive weapons we have.

People say that a lot, but I don't think it's true. Are the Falcons significantly more talented at the skill positions than teams like the Eagles, Cowboys, Texans, Bears, or Chiefs? I don't think so. And since it's not fantasy football, it's not about who has the most talented offensive weapons. If it was, then the Cowboys would have been reigning supreme over the league over the past 5 years.

Confess_Jesus_Now wrote:
But i don't think he gets as much credit as he deserves sometimes. I mean, look at the Sam Baker decision.

Yep, due to TD's patience, we were rewarded with the 20th best left tackle in the NFL this year. :clap: :roll:

Confess_Jesus_Now wrote:
Given the circumstances, what other options did he have beyond Ray Edwards and Dunta Robinson?

But what you're not considering is that those circumstances were because of this team's poor drafting of corners and pass rushers prior to those two coming here. Cornerback and edge pass rusher are two cornerstone positions, and like the other two cornerstone positions (QB & LT), the odds of successfully finding talent at those spots drops significantly once you get out of the 2nd round. Did the Falcons use any 1st/2nd round picks on CBs & DEs during TD's tenure? No. So it's no wonder that they were backed into a corner and forced to overpay for above average FA talent.

Confess_Jesus_Now wrote:
And Spoon was a great first round choice apparently. I mean, cut the guy some slack.

Yep, Spoon was a great 1st round choice. But how much slack should I cut a guy just because he hits on a Top 20 pick? Should I cut slack for other teams/GMs because they managed to find players like Jeremy Maclin, Maurkice Pouncey, Aqib Talib, Leon Hall, Joe Flacco, Mike Iupati around the same point in the draft? If you have a Top 20 pick, you should be able to find a player of Spoon or those other players' caliber in 75% if not more of your drafts. Because that's what a good drafter would do.

backnblack wrote:
The proof will be in the pudding, I guess, over the next few years if the "lost" draft of 2011 bites us.

Yeah, and the problem is going to be most people will say 2011 didn't bite us because we'll continue to see winning seasons and playoff appearances. And like I said, if that is your measuring stick/litmus test, then TD is excellent at his job.

But for me, that isn't the measuring stick. When he first got here, that's what it was. But after a certain point, you have to do more, and I think following the 2010 season that was that point for TD. Just like with Andy Reid in Philly, there's going to be a point where being consistently good but rarely great just isn't going to cut it.

And I think TD missed a golden opportunity over the past 2 off-seasons to really improve the team.

I'm not saying that the Falcons have to win a Super Bowl every year. I'm willing to be patient if I think the team is on the right path and making strides. But I'm not sure they are. Or rather, I think they might have had an opportunity to take 5 steps forward, but they only wound up taking 2 steps.

There is certainly pressure coming from Arthur Blank. He's trying to build a new stadium, and a bright shiny Lombardi Trophy certainly is the best way to do that. But that doesn't mean you have to go "all in" and abandon "The Process" to get there.

We all know that teams that draft well correlate very highly with winning at the highest levels, and teams that focus on free agency correlate poorly.

I'll tell you the story of the New York GIants. They won the SUper Bowl in 2007 basically with overachieving as a 9-7 wildcard. They wanted to get back to the mountaintop in 2008, and were a better team but didn't with a 12-4 record. So in 2009, they went out and bought a new front seven with big money moves to get Chris Canty, Rocky Bernard, and Michael Boley. Did that work out for them? No. In 2009, they regressed to being 8-8. But skip ahead to 2011, and they once again overachieved to become Super Bowl champs.

How did that happen? Some people might see the spending of 2009 and see guys like Canty & Boley being key contributors on that 2011 team as a success. But they weren't in fact. The success that was the 2011 team/season was largely due to good drafting done since '07, with picks like Nicks, JPP, Linval Joseph (who replaced Bernard as a starter), Manningham, and some UDFA by the name Cruz that really was what eventually pushed them over the top.

The "all in" strategy doesn't work. It never has in the modern league that has been created in the mid-90s with expansion teams and free agency. And if there are a few examples, they are heavily outweighed by the examples of teams that win because they drafted and developed talented. It's basically like TD adopted a strategy that works 10% of the time, when there was a tried and true one that works the other 90% of the time.

Arthur Blank didn't force TD's hand to adopt the strategy that he did. Thus that responsibility is 100% on Thomas Dimitroff.

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 Post subject: Re: I guess TD got this one right, too.
PostPosted: Mon Oct 22, 2012 2:15 am 
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Pudge Wrote
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So why is that? It has nothing to do with TD's "exceptional" planning as far as the fullback goes, it has to do with the fact that he was unaware or ignored that one Michael Turner is/was well past his prime. And as some "people" have been saying over the past 10 months, he would no longer be able/capable of helping this team win football games on a week-to-week basis. You can thank Cyril for championing that cause.


Did I do good or bad? I'm never sure (:

Yea TD is as good as anyone!! You've got to take what is most important to a Gm and
without a doubt Mike Smith gives TD an A+...The head coach is the Gm's most important decision. Matt Ryan hasn't been a bad pick, and most don't talk about the #2
we gave for Tony G. He has delivered far more yards & Tds in 4 years than most thought he would for perhaps 3 years?

Pudge Wrote "
Quote:
I think most fans are content because they don't spend as much time thinking about the little things this team does (or does not do) to make themselves better. The fact that they retained Brett Romberg for 2 months as a completely unnecessary 3rd center on last year's roster flies completely under most people's radars. But for over-analytical, undersexed nerds like me, stuff like that sticks in my craw. Why couldn't that have been used for a player like Leonard Davis?

It's sweating the small stuff that is going to be what fills the remainder of the glass. It's not giving up half a draft for a complementary receiver that is going to put you over the top. It's those small seemingly inconsequential detaials that when added up together make a lot larger difference.

I consider myself to be a well-informed fan, certainly smarter than your average guy on the street. And a lot of what I've learned over the years I've pilfered from Thomas Dimitroff, by seeing the things he did early here in Atlanta. But in recent years, IMO he's gone away from those things that caused him to have that initial success and really blow me away with how much I didn't know 3-4 years ago.

I think it's the same thing that Rich McKay did. He abandoned the long-term plan for the sake of winning now. And that never works. You don't build championship teams in just 3-4 years. It's an extremely rare occurrence. It consistently takes 7-10 years.

The difference is that with McKay, the bottom fell out for him because he hitched his wagons to Michael Vick and Jim Mora. TD has hitched his to Matt Ryan and Mike Smith, and so if/when the bottom falls out, you're still probably going to be an 8-8 or 9-7 team.


Pudge you do know so much more than most; but I sometimes think its the small stuff
that screws a little of your thinking. The day McKay pick Mora it was all over. He's turned out to be a loser even in college; and lost control of himself and his football team.

I don't think Thomas D. left the strategy with the Julio pick. He gambled more than most would have there but it was Julio that got Ryan into the weight room when Ryan
saw Julio could out run his passes. Its not the small stuff that is going to get us over the top, we're a better team today; but even a playoff win or not; we're not there; it does take at least 7 years.....and Julio is not the piece to put us over the top.

The top third must be a much better defense. Even teams with the very best Qbs get tired of losing Super Bowls. Not many average defenses win Super Bowls; not consistently; and our front and linebackers are certainly average; (except Abe ) who always surprises me.

The point is to me is I concentrate on the small stuff that goes well; and except the other half of the small stuff will go bad. Its not that which will keep us from the glass being full. Its back to the basics on the defense; I always hated the Lofton trade for
we can see we let a very good run stuffer go. Then again as you use the Giants as an example we never know how much a team can improve during the season.

We might be the worst 6-0 team in history but if you'll give us those 7 years you talk about; you might look back and see the Julio trade as the right trade at the right time to get the offense over the hump and now we can work more on an explosive defense.

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 Post subject: Re: I guess TD got this one right, too.
PostPosted: Mon Oct 22, 2012 10:06 am 
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Cyril wrote:
Yea TD is as good as anyone!! You've got to take what is most important to a Gm and without a doubt Mike Smith gives TD an A+...The head coach is the Gm's most important decision. Matt Ryan hasn't been a bad pick, and most don't talk about the #2 we gave for Tony G. He has delivered far more yards & Tds in 4 years than most thought he would for perhaps 3 years?

Like I said, I give TD full credit for those moves. They were his biggest moves, as they really set up this team not just for the first 3 years, but potentially for the first 10 years he's here to do well. I said on this board way back in 2008, that TD's decision on what he did with #3 pick was going to make/break his tenure here in Atlanta. He chose right. But as I said, those moves occurred over the first 18 months of his tenure here, and he was nearly perfect during that time. And when you go over the first 3 years, he wasn't perfect, but he got the overwhelming majority of things right. I don't think he's continued to do a good job these last 2 years in particular. I don't think he's had a good draft since 2008. Not to say he's drafted poorly since then, but his 2009 thru 2012 drafts IMO were average.

Cyril wrote:
it does take at least 7 years.....and Julio is not the piece to put us over the top.

The top third must be a much better defense. Even teams with the very best Qbs get tired of losing Super Bowls. Not many average defenses win Super Bowls; not consistently; and our front and linebackers are certainly average; (except Abe ) who always surprises me...We might be the worst 6-0 team in history but if you'll give us those 7 years you talk about; you might look back and see the Julio trade as the right trade at the right time to get the offense over the hump and now we can work more on an explosive defense.

But what I'm trying to say is that those 7 years it would take, that's basically 7 years of good to great drafting. And the JOnes trade negatively impacts that ability because you've basically taken 2 drafts (2011 & 2012) and cut them in half. Now you can't afford to miss on guys like Akeem Dent, Peter Konz, and Lamar Holmes. Because you gave up picks, that means it's even more important that previous picks like Corey Peters, Lawrence Sidbury, Thomas DeCoud, Joe Hawley, etc. turn into good players. TD's actions basically narrowed their margin for error by a lot. When you look around the league, the numbers are something like over 50% of 1st & 2nd round picks wind up becoming good NFL players, quality starters, playmakers, etc. But for every other pick, that number is closer to half that. But 3rd & 4th round picks are still about 2 or 3x as likely to turn into those players than 5th-7th rounders.

By trading away a #2 for Gonzo, #1 and #2 for Julio Jones, as well as other picks, you've traded key assets.

You've basically "wasted" 2 off-seasons due to the Jones trade, where you've reduced your ability to acquire assets because you gave away half your assets/premium picks. And so basically now that 7-year strategy gets extended to 9 years because at some point I believe you're going to have to make it up with an even stronger draft than you needed to have in 2011 and/or 2012.

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 Post subject: Re: I guess TD got this one right, too.
PostPosted: Mon Oct 22, 2012 10:32 am 
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Bottom line: I don't think TD is a bad GM. I think he's a very good GM, one of the best in the league. But I also think he made a big mistake with the Jones trade, frankly a rookie mistake. At least TD has the fact that he got a good player in exchange for it. Other lesser GMs would have made the same mistake but traded for Tai Streets or David Terrell or something.

So I give TD that form of credit. But he made the "rookie mistake" that he basically abandoned the long-term, 5, 7, 10-year plan in favor of the short term, "all-in/win now" approach.

And when you look at the last 20 years of NFL history at the teams that win Super Bowls, lose Super Bowls, and/or are consistently in the running to do either, you see that nearly all of them got to where they were by a successful draft-first approach over the course of 5, 7, and many times 10 years.

And there's no way that I believe anybody can say that what TD has put into place the past 2 off-seasons is that sort of strategy. Especially in comparison to what he did in Years 1 thru 3, where he did put that strategy/plan in place.

And the thing I would say to him if I had the balls to do so was "You're better than that/this. You're better than Rich McKay, Bruce Allen, Tom Heckert, Phil Savage, Carl Peterson, Jerry Jones, Jerry Angelo, etc. I would expect such a move from them, but you are/were better than this TD, and you know better. You were in NE, so I know you know better."

New England's success didn't begin in 2000 when Belichick it arrived. All that they are today began in 1993 when new owner Robert Kraft hired Bill Parcells. It began then. And a smart, exceptional GM knows that it's less about trying to win one immediate Super Bowl in the next 3 years, and about setting yourself up to win multiple Super Bowls over 15 years.

Look at the 2003 Panthers and 1998 Falcons. Because of the quick turnarounds/successes of John Fox and Dan Reeves, those teams went to and lost the SB in Year 2 of their regimes. But because neither team were well run after that point, they mired in mediocrity for the remainder of their tenures over the next 5-7 years.

It's simple math. You give yourself 1 good shot at winning the Super Bowl, you basically have to be extremely lucky. Now, if you give yourself 3, 5, or 7 shots, then the odds increase that one of those times you do get lucky and you win it all.

Compare Carolina & Atlanta to New England, who's won 3 Super Bowls, lost 2, and probably had another 3 or so years where they were front-runners to go back over the past 10 years.

So even if you have an owner like Artie breathing down your neck about winning now, a good GM isn't going to compromise on those principles. And so if TD has buckled to that pressure in Flowery Branch, then it doesn't make him a bad GM, but it certainly doesn't make him as good as many people are saying he is.

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 Post subject: Re: I guess TD got this one right, too.
PostPosted: Mon Oct 22, 2012 1:41 pm 
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People can also forget Matt Bryant is becoming an all pro, who wins games and is consistent as most any kicker. A great kicker is as important as anyone.

Maybe that's why they say 7-10 years? I don't think it will be hard to get a better running back, but starting to consistently win playoff games obviously gets harder and
harder, as players age, and your #1 draft choice get around to 25th +. Both safeties
seem to be working out, but we got a ways to go.

This being year 5, I think we're pretty much on course. Coach Smith gave an interview here in Atlanta Saturday on Tv, and said we need to work on offense, defense; and special teams. He thinks our defense can be better with other schemes; and the main things he looks for after a game is where we started with field position compared to our opponent, how did we match up with penalties; turnovers, time of possession, and one other thing I don't remember.

When you see him writing something down, he says its never a good thing; its something we need to get straightened out. He thinks our tackling sucks; and so does the run defense, no surprise there......

One nice thing you mentioned in the off season is when Ryan threw 3 interceptions they didn't move away from him; they kept him passing...

Pudge; you would have loved the interview, he sounded like you......Happy we won 3 away games but that's about it. A lot more stuff to fix and no time to gloat. He says outright the ball has bounced our way or the record would be closer to .500

His mother and father comes to the games and his father was a high school coach, or
some kind of football coach, and when asked how does his father fell about the team
Coach Smith said " He's not as critical as me"

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 Post subject: Re: I guess TD got this one right, too.
PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2012 6:04 pm 
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Whether it's running the ball or passing the ball, the offense looks out of sync and bad whenever my boy Lousaka is on the field. It may have been the right call to let go of Ovie, but what the Falcons have put forth on the field at FB as his replacements is negatively impacting the team.

It's time to make a permanent switch to Snelling as the FB.

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 Post subject: Re: I guess TD got this one right, too.
PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2012 9:52 pm 
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Pudge wrote:
Whether it's running the ball or passing the ball, the offense looks out of sync and bad whenever my boy Lousaka is on the field. It may have been the right call to let go of Ovie, but what the Falcons have put forth on the field at FB as his replacements is negatively impacting the team.

It's time to make a permanent switch to Snelling as the FB.



oh stop it. As 'if' we even needed a FB anyways. :roll:

*cough cough* Quizz and Snelling *cough cough*

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 Post subject: Re: I guess TD got this one right, too.
PostPosted: Mon Oct 29, 2012 8:01 am 
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TD has not been perfect, but I can't complain after seeing the boneheaded moves 75% of the GMs in this league have done.

Look over what he has done this offseason:
Abraham to a VERY cap friendly deal.
Biermann to a no-risk deal.
Samuel for next to nothing + VERY cap friendly deal.
Drafted OL for the future (I still want Konz in there now, he has already shown to be better than Reynolds).
Didn't commit to Grimes, and with a little luck, might be able to sign him to a much friendlier deal if we decide to keep him.
TD believed Ewing would be a starting quality FB. He got injured, it happens. If he hadn't gotten injured, we'd probably be singing a different tune.

Harvey Dahl & Ray Edwards remain the only big mistakes, but we aren't tied to Edwards like we are Dunta (who has played up to expectations when we first signed him this year). We also are obliged to find a replacement for Turner next offseason, as I don't think Rodgers is the answer.

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 Post subject: Re: I guess TD got this one right, too.
PostPosted: Mon Oct 29, 2012 5:29 pm 
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fun gus wrote:
Pudge wrote:
Whether it's running the ball or passing the ball, the offense looks out of sync and bad whenever my boy Lousaka is on the field. It may have been the right call to let go of Ovie, but what the Falcons have put forth on the field at FB as his replacements is negatively impacting the team.

It's time to make a permanent switch to Snelling as the FB.



oh stop it. As 'if' we even needed a FB anyways. :roll:

*cough cough* Quizz and Snelling *cough cough*

Yep we don't need a fullback yet TD is really smart for drafting one with our third pick in the draft. :wink:

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