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 Post subject: Predicted Finish: 1st NFC South; NFC Title Game Appearance
PostPosted: Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:11 am 
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Atlanta Falcons, 2012 N.F.L. Season Preview

By ANDY BENOIT


Andy Benoit, who is previewing all 32 N.F.L. teams, concludes his tour of the N.F.C. South with a look at the Falcons, whom he picks to win.



The Atlanta Falcons have done everything the N.F.L. manual says to do. The owner Arthur Blank has assumed an active role in the club’s day-to-day operations, but he spends a majority of his time on the business side with the team president Rich McKay. He leaves the football side to General Manager Thomas Dimitroff. Dimitroff has the type of autonomy every executive covets, though he doesn’t hoard power. He has an intricately involved scouting department and a strong working relationship with Coach Mike Smith.

Under this stable power structure, the Falcons have constructed one of the soundest, richest rosters in the league. They’ve groomed what they believe is a franchise quarterback in Matt Ryan. They have a top-five receiver in Roddy White, flanked by a second-year phenom, Julio Jones. Lining up between them is a future Hall of Fame tight end, Tony Gonzalez. This isn’t just an aerial offense, though, far from it. Atlanta has a big, cohesive front five, which is well suited for the sustainable power run game that veteran Michael Turner provides.

The Falcon defense is not quite as talented as the offense, but it’s just as balanced. There are a handful of praiseworthy pass rushers up front, staunch interior players, a rising star at linebacker (Sean Weatherspoon) and a secondary featuring three big-name corners: Brent Grimes, Dunta Robinson and newbie Asante Samuel.

According to the N.F.L. manual, the Falcons should be serious Super Bowl contenders. They may have been the only team that went into this past April’s draft without a single obvious hole to fill on either side of the ball (which is why no one voiced any concern about the fact that, thanks to past trades, just two of their six total selections came before the fifth round).

Yet, heading into the 2012 season, the Falcons are known as the team that can’t win a playoff game. They’re 0-3 in postseason play since the Dimitroff/Smith/Ryan era commenced in 2008. If you’re Dimitroff, what do you do? You can’t change head coaches – Smith has done way too good a job. You can’t make drastic alterations to your personnel – none of your weaknesses are distinct enough to justify an expensive repair job. You can’t gather the team and give them a moving speech about focusing, stepping up in big moments and wanting it more because such dramatic nonsense only carries weight in Disney movies and on lazy studio shows.

So what do you do? How do you push your more-than-ready franchise to the next level? Dimitroff and Smith actually came up with a solution: bring in new top-level assistant coaches to install more sophisticated schemes. Ladies and gentlemen, say hello to offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter and defensive coordinator Mike Nolan – the two men charged with propelling Atlanta to the top.

OFFENSE

It might seem ridiculous to talk up Dirk Koetter as the man who can save Atlanta’s offense. After all, Koetter’s offenses in Jacksonville ranked sixth, 24th, 24th, 18th and 28th in scoring in the five years he was there. But Koetter’s offenses in Jacksonville never had any quality weapons in the passing game – and Koetter is a passing connoisseur.

Under previous coordinator Mike Mularkey, the Falcons spent a lot of time in heavy base personnel (multiple tight ends, multiple backs in the backfield). They were built around a high-volume interior run game, with a passing attack that was full of rudimentary isolation routes. Koetter will add more dimension and variables to the passing attack. He’ll design more complex route combinations that will rely on Matt Ryan’s ability to dissect and manipulate defenses.

A more sophisticated passing game should play to Ryan’s strengths. One plus from playing in Mularkey’s system was, last season, when the Falcons did go to the air, they tended to do so with three-receiver personnel out of a no-huddle. Ryan gained valuable experience calling signals at the line of scrimmage and setting his own protections. Ultimately, these are traits a young quarterback must hone. Koetter, who values having strong working relationships with his quarterbacks, should expand Ryan’s freedoms and responsibilities this season.

Ryan has the mental makeup to handle the heaviest of loads – but it won’t show unless he becomes more proficient physically. If he has more to read while dropping back, he must get more comfortable holding the ball longer and playing from a congested pocket. Ryan has good-but-not-great arm strength, which isn’t a problem until he gets a little rattled when defenders crowd him. His accuracy, which is normally stellar, can be compromised under duress.

Discomfort in a congested pocket isn’t a glaring weakness of Ryan’s, but it’s the weakness currently keeping him from blossoming into a top-shelf quarterback. He has to change this because, not only are muddied pockets as common in the N.F.L. as third downs and TV timeouts, but the Falcon offensive line is an unathletic bunch that has trouble sustaining blocks in seven-step pass protection. Koetter, as Mularkey did, will probably work around this by dialing up frequent quick drops and rolling pockets for Ryan (who, as a fundamentally sound timing-and-rhythm passer, excels with these tactics anyway). Nevertheless, the signature of Koetter’s offense is its innovative downfield aerial designs. Those often require longer dropbacks. Koetter never got to showcase his downfield designs in Jacksonville; if he’s to showcase them here, Ryan must improve as a late-in-the-down pocket passer.

Ryan’s not the only player being expected to step forward in 2012. The enticing skills of second-year wideout Julio Jones were, ostensibly, a big inspiration behind the decision to bring in Koetter and his system. Jones has extraordinary explosiveness as a straight-line, downfield weapon. His quick-twitch, stop-start ability still needs refining (and so does his route running), but his raw strength alone can compensate while these attributes develop.

Defenses will have a difficult time figuring out how much attention to give Jones. If he’s primarily used on downfield patterns, it’s probably worth regularly cheating a safety over the top to his side. Problem is, opposite Jones is Roddy White, one of the most dynamic all-around receiving threats in football. With Jones’s development and Koetter’s system being structured to incorporate more ancillary receivers in the passing game, White says he’s prepared to assume a lesser role in 2012. This doesn’t mean you shouldn’t take the 30-year-old early in your fantasy draft. White led the N.F.L. in pass targets last season (which is partly why he also led the league in drops). His role is decreasing from that of an “over-used star” to that of just a regular star.

And it’s not as if the Falcons have mountains of up-and-coming receivers in need of more touches. With Jones and White lifting more coverages, darting fifth-year slot man Harry Douglas figures to play a slightly more prominent role running crossing patterns underneath. And, of course, there’s tight end Tony Gonzalez, who, at 36 and in what he claims is his final season, can still easily beat the one-on-one coverage of just about any linebacker or safety. But Douglas and Gonzalez are it. Atlanta’s fourth wideout, Kerry Meier, is mostly a special teamer (in fact, he may fall behind undrafted second-year pro Kevin Cone in the pecking order). No. 2 tight end Michael Palmer is almost exclusively a blocker (a fine one, at least).

The increased diversity brought forth by Koetter’s scheme won’t lead to using more weapons in the passing game – it will lead to using the existing weapons in more ways. In the run game, it’s a different story. The Falcons plan on decreasing Michael Turner’s workload and going with more of a backfield by committee. This is a wise move. On paper, Turner didn’t show any glaring decline last season (he rushed for 1,340 yards, averaging 4.5 yards per carry). But his yards per carry fell below 3.7 in games after Week 10 save for Week 17, when he took advantage of a Bucs defense that had quit by that point. Some speculate that Turner’s drop in production had to do with the downgrade at fullback, as veteran thumper Ovie Mughelli was injured and replaced by the weaker Mike Cox. (Cox will be pushed this year by free-agent pickup Lousaka Polite.) Perhaps, but you can’t overlook the fact that Turner is also a 30-year-old pounder who has topped the 300-carry mark three of the last four seasons.

Of course, Turner averaged just 57 rushing attempts per season in his first four years with the Chargers, so you couldn’t blame him for arguing that he’s still fresh. Turner isn’t arguing that, though. Or, at least, he’s saying all the right things about sharing the load. It will be interesting to see how he actually does with this. Turner’s not a very dynamic runner – he doesn’t succeed by changing the pace of the offense. He’s methodical and has always thrived on a high volume of touches.

Turner will at least be sharing his touches with a solid group. The backup Jason Snelling is like a quicker, more upright but less controlled version of Turner. Unlike Turner, Snelling can moonlight at fullback and also catch passes out of the backfield. More intriguing is second-year man Jacquizz Rodgers. It’s natural to assume that the 5-6 fifth-round pick is a scatback type. Rodgers has the quickness to play that role, but he also has surprisingly compact strength (sort of like a poor man’s Maurice Jones-Drew). Considering he’s adept in the passing game, Rodgers should give Koetter’s offense some added dimensions.

As for the “unathletic” offensive line, understand that it’s not a bad group. In fact, it’s one of the more cohesive groups in all of football. But it’s deprived of any standout forces. Left tackle Sam Baker has been somewhat disappointing since being drafted 21st over all in 2008. He battled injuries last season and was at one point benched for the more agile Will Svitek. That won’t happen this year because Svitek is out for the season with an upper arm injury.

Left guard Justin Blalock has thunderous size but limited range on pull blocks. Center Todd McClure is reliable but far from dazzling. In fact, considering that third-year backups Mike Johnson and Joe Hawley can both play guard, the Falcons may have drafted the nimble Peter Konz in Round 2 this past April to replace McClure before too long. Konz projects as a guard, but he spent his entire Wisconsin career snapping the ball. At right guard, Garret Reynolds will get a shot at reclaiming the starting job that he lost to Hawley midway through last season. Rounding out the front is right tackle Tyson Clabo, a mudder who many erroneously believe is Atlanta’s best blocker. (Blalock is Atlanta’s best blocker.)

DEFENSE

Mike Nolan won’t transform the defensive scheme as drastically as Koetter will transform the offense. Keep in mind, Mike Smith earned his head coaching job by overseeing a classic zone scheme in Jacksonville. It’s doubtful the 4-3 based Falcons will drift too far into Nolan’s 3-4 hybrid system.

There will be changes, though. Most of the pass-rushing pressure manufactured in Smith’s scheme comes out of zone blitzing with base personnel. The Falcons hired Nolan to spice up their nickel and dime schemes. In today’s pass-happy N.F.L., defenses spend as much time in sub-packages as they do in base. The Falcons know this – that’s why they traded a seventh-round pick and handed out a three-year, $14.5 million contract to acquire Eagles corner Asante Samuel. The four-time Pro Bowler gives them an accomplished cornerbacking threesome that includes Dunta Robinson and Brent Grimes.

“Accomplished” does not necessarily mean “potent,” though. There’s a reason the Eagles were eager to dump Samuel. It’s not just that the 31-year-old is in decline; Samuel has inherent limitations as a press corner. He can play well in off-coverage (i.e. zone or man-to-man with a serious cushion). That’s not all bad – in this style Samuel is very good at reading quarterbacks and jumping routes – but it limits what a coordinator can do with the rest of his defensive backfield. No matter what, the Falcons will have to play some sort of zone to Samuel’s side of the field, which means they’ll often have to dedicate at least one extra defender over.

Samuel’s not the only one who plays with a cushion. Robinson, though a quick former first-round pick, is one of the league’s softest cover artists. He requested extra slot duties even before Samuel’s arrival, but in the slot he’ll have to deal with more man-based concepts. Robinson will probably be an upgrade over Christopher Owens or Dominique Franks inside, but don’t expect him to flourish.

As for Grimes, he’s one of the smarter zone defenders in the game, and he has the athleticism to win one-on-one matchups downfield. The Falcons franchise-tagged him this past off-season, which could end up costing them more in a signing bonus if the fifth-year veteran has another big season.

Injuries and inconsistency at cornerback weren’t what led to Atlanta’s ho-hum ranking of 20th against the pass in 2011. Safeties William Moore and Thomas DeCoud had their iffy range and coverage instincts exposed. The truth is, the Falcons are trying to get by with two in-the-box type safeties. Moore, a second-round pick in ’09, can be a playmaking thumper in the flats. He fits the mantra of playing faster (which is something else Nolan was brought in to teach). DeCoud is the one who needs to be challenged. Dimitroff and the front office might say they like the guy and that his wrinkles can be ironed out, particularly if the zone scheme is tweaked to help him. But when they signed DeCoud to a five-year, $17.5 million contract this past March, they made just $4 million of it guaranteed. In other words, they view this as a make-or-break season for the 27-year-old. If DeCoud flounders, the Falcons could turn to veteran Chris Hope. Then again, Hope is only here because he struggled in Tennessee’s zone scheme the last two years.

The Falcons, like any 4-3 zone-based team, rely on generating pressure primarily with a four-man pass-rush. They don’t do it unimaginatively, though – Smith is willing to deploy tricky zone blitzes with his linebackers and safeties. That said, they still rely heavily on the guys up front. They’re hoping that 34-year-old John Abraham can continue to turn the corner as the leading speed demon outside. There’s no indication that Abraham can’t, though his first-and second-down snaps may need to be curtailed even more.

The Falcons have depth outside to accommodate Abraham. The sinewy fifth-year pro Kroy Biermann is a fluid run-defender and probably a more dynamic pass rusher than last year’s big free-agent pickup, Ray Edwards. This, however, says more about Edwards than Biermann. Edwards is a solid all-around presence, particularly against the run, but he doesn’t have great burst and swivel off the snap. Someone who does is Lawrence Sidbury, though the 2009 fourth-round pick recorded just four sacks as a pass-rushing specialist in 2011, and two of those sacks came from being in the right place at the right time against Minnesota. Injuries and inexperience have hindered Sidbury somewhat; if he has a breakout season in him, this will be it. If he doesn’t, then fifth-round rookie Jonathan Massaquoi will most likely replace him in the long-term plans.

Inside, Jonathan Babineaux remains perhaps the most underrated three-technique tackle in football. He’s been what 2009 first-round pick Peria Jerry was supposed to be. Jerry hasn’t been a complete bust – he plays with energy and occasionally creates opportunities for others. However, unless quick, athletic third-year pro Corey Peters can’t bounce back from his early June foot injury (he missed the first few weeks of training camp), Jerry has no chance at cracking the starting lineup. He’ll have to compete for snaps with effective ’09 seventh-round Vance Walker.

At the second level of the defense, Atlanta is rolling the dice by having Akeem Dent take over for the departed Curtis Lofton at middle linebacker. The 2011 third-round pick has flashed athleticism, particularly on special teams, and is expected to be rangier in coverage than Lofton was. Nevertheless, this scheme demands sharp read-and-react skills against the run, which aren’t always easy for young players to immediately cultivate.

It helps that Dent will be playing alongside rising star Sean Weatherspoon. Expect the 2010 first-round pick to be regarded as the defense’s clear-cut best player by season’s end. Weatherspoon plays with an all-around explosiveness that can’t be taught. And he’s very good in coverage, which is critical in this scheme.

For depth purposes, the Falcons brought back 36-year-old Mike Peterson, who has played for Mike Smith since the two arrived in Jacksonville in 2003. The versatile-but-now-limited Peterson will most likely be the No. 4 linebacker, behind starting strongside man Stephen Nicholas.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Kicker Matt Bryant has always had phenomenal range. Playing in the climate-controlled Georgia Dome only helps. As a sixth-round rookie last season, Matt Bosher ranked 12th in both net punting and balls inside the 20. In the return game, Harry Douglas will handle punts, and Jacquizz Rodgers will take care of kicks.

BOTTOM LINE

With the bounty turmoil in New Orleans and with the Panthers and Bucs still young, the Falcons’ window in the N.F.C. South is open wider than ever. But the focus with this team is not on winning the division. It’s on finally winning in the postseason. That will come down to how well Matt Ryan and the offense adapt to Dirk Koetter’s new system. The prospects look good.

Predicted Finish: 1st NFC South; NFC Title Game Appearance



http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2012 ... n-preview/

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 Post subject: Re: Predicted Finish: 1st NFC South; NFC Title Game Appearan
PostPosted: Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:00 pm 
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A very good read, only a few nitpicks. Blalock is not our best blocker, Clabo indeed is. While Blalock's A game is better than Clabo's, it doesn't show up nearly as often as Clabo's does.

And I also think the reason why the "people" ignored the Falcons lack of draft picks was because by and large people have written off the Falcons due to the Giants loss. That's why everybody is still picking the Saints to win the division because they don't trust the Falcons. The Falcons have done nothing yet to earn such trust.

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 Post subject: Re: Predicted Finish: 1st NFC South; NFC Title Game Appearan
PostPosted: Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:38 am 
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Quote:
Discomfort in a congested pocket isn’t a glaring weakness of Ryan’s, but it’s the weakness currently keeping him from blossoming into a top-shelf quarterback. He has to change this because, not only are muddied pockets as common in the N.F.L. as third downs and TV timeouts, but the Falcon offensive line is an unathletic bunch that has trouble sustaining blocks in seven-step pass protection.


Yes and it will be worse this year and why we probably won't win a playoff game!!

This team is too arrogant for their limited talent!! Especially along both lines!!

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 Post subject: Re: Predicted Finish: 1st NFC South; NFC Title Game Appearan
PostPosted: Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:56 pm 
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Cyril, we're starting to agree on some stuff. I do think for Ryan to really make that next leap as a passer, this team is going to have to do a better job catering their personnel to him. Get a 4th WR that not only can play special teams, but also deserves to play on offense (unlike Kerry Meier). Get 2 TEs that you are comfortable with as pass catchers. WE don't need Gronk & Hernandez, but Dickson/Pitta or Moeaki/Boss would be nice.

And you gotta beef up the front four, particularly in the interior. Moving Konz to C is the first move, but you need to upgrade the RG with a player at least of Justin Blalock's caliber if not much better. Blalock is just an above average starting G similar to how Dahl was, but we need a guy at least of that caliber in the middle to bolster this unit. Not to mention getting a long-term solution at LT, something we haven't had since the prime of Whitfield 10-15 years ago. I don't believe that is Holmes, or at least I should we'll have to wait too many years for that to be Holmes. I suspect Holmes will open next year as the starting LT, but like many similar players before him like Donald Penn or Jermon Bushrod, it's going to take them a couple of years in the starting role before you really actually trust them there. With that in mind, I think Holmes should instead be groomed to take over for Clabo in 2-3 years.

Replace Turner with a more versatile and explosive back that can work in a single backfield, if the Falcons can do some of these things in the coming off-seasons, I think they can begin to close the gap offensively between themselves and the first tier offenses and really put RYan in the conversation for one of the elite/near-elite QBs.

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 Post subject: Re: Predicted Finish: 1st NFC South; NFC Title Game Appearan
PostPosted: Sun Aug 26, 2012 1:29 am 
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Actually I'm being nicer about it than I feel!! I've hated our preseason games!!

Ryan still can't throw deep; we have a terrible line; wait till these guys start blitzing and
Ryan is sacked in two steps. Arthur is dumber than all outdoors if he thinks this is a playoff winning team!!

Ray Edwards is so slow; when the season starts opposing Qbs will have all day. This
could be a 7-9 team.....Nolan is not a defensive genius; and Coaches can't make chicken salad out of chicken s***!! Obviously they always say don't make too much out of preseason; but the lack of third down conversations and our first team's offense the whole first half is reason for concern!!

I don't even like J. Rodgers!!

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 Post subject: Re: Predicted Finish: 1st NFC South; NFC Title Game Appearan
PostPosted: Sun Aug 26, 2012 1:58 am 
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Pudge Wrote"
Quote:
Cyril, we're starting to agree on some stuff.


Well its one thing to be sitting in the off season saying what you hope; but when your offensive starters are playing the first half against Miami and scoring 9 points I can't see
where we will be better??? Its the big "3rd" preseason game and our players act like the playoffs are a given?? Its not!! The lack of depth on this team alone; would get some Gm's fired.

We will need more players as we go through 16 games; I hate D. Franks too!!
Everybody is overrated!!

Matt Ryan can put up great stats but can he put up points every game??

Arthur's goal should be to have a better team, not stuck on a playoff victory; attitude starts at the top; and everyone else is talking about the playoffs..... The first sign of a bad season!!

And no we are not going to a Super Bowl either!!

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 Post subject: Re: Predicted Finish: 1st NFC South; NFC Title Game Appearan
PostPosted: Sun Aug 26, 2012 3:30 am 
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Word on the street is that the Falcons were purposefully vanilla against the Dolphins to not tip their hand against the Chiefs. Choose to believe that or not.

I believe the off-season and regular season are a feedback loop, how you do in one directly affects how you do in the other.

I think we'll be OK more so than you think Cyril. I just still worry if we've taken any steps closer to beating the best teams in the league, which is crux of the problem.

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 Post subject: Re: Predicted Finish: 1st NFC South; NFC Title Game Appearan
PostPosted: Sun Aug 26, 2012 6:37 pm 
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"Pudge Wrote"
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I just still worry if we've taken any steps closer to beating the best teams in the league, which is crux of the problem.


"Cyril Wrote"
Quote:

Arthur's goal should be to have a better team, not stuck on a playoff victory; attitude starts at the top; and everyone else is talking about the playoffs..... The first sign of a bad season!!


I think this is saying the exact same thing..... This is a new season!! I don't like the players acting like this year starts where last year ended.....I think the players and everyone should be talking about what it takes to be a better team, not winning playoff games.

A better team is of course necessary to beating the best teams in the league; but I don't think you get there thinking you can start from where you left off, like it or not every team is starting from the beginning; The owner, coaches and players should be focused on becoming a better team from now to game 16.....

Then if they've earned it they can show us how much better they've gotten. Something just seems
wrong with this teams attitude about how good they are??

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 Post subject: Re: Predicted Finish: 1st NFC South; NFC Title Game Appearan
PostPosted: Mon Aug 27, 2012 2:51 am 
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Pudge wrote:
A better team is of course necessary to beating the best teams in the league; but I don't think you get there thinking you can start from where you left off, like it or not every team is starting from the beginning;

Something to think about...

As you probably can guess, I believe there is a sizable gap between the best teams in the NFL and the Falcons. I believe this is obvious from the playoff losses over the years, but in how the Falcons have played throughout the regular season, with no better example than their continual "close but no cigar" performances against the Saints.

Perhaps it's not trying to pick up from where you ended, but realizing that there is room to grow, and trying to start there. Set the standard higher than normal. That's not just based around where you finish, but where you begin and each leg of the journey (i.e. every game).

And as you can probably guess from my posts over the past several months, that means being an aggressive, pass-oriented offense that goes about challenging Matt Ryan on a weekly basis to play perfect football. The reality is that he won't be perfect, and almost certainly won't be right off the bat. But without that challenge that comes in the regular season, I don't think you can expect him to be able to "rise up" come the playoffs if/when the Falcons do get there.

And if that is the driving factor for each game, understanding that if you achieve those weekly goals, then you will be in a position at the end where you want to be.

And you're right, if this team goes about it's business feeling entitled that they will make the playoffs, then things are going to blow up in their face and it's going to ultimately cost Mike Smith his job at some point in the near future. But if they approach it in the sense that we'll pick up where we left off by trying to play playoff-caliber football every week, and we understand that means that we have to find a way to elevate our game starting now, then I think that could be very, very good for this team and this season, and have doubters and haters like myself eating a steaming plate of crow by year's end.

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