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 Post subject: Re: Matt Ryan knows the next step
PostPosted: Thu Jun 21, 2012 7:20 am 
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Pudge wrote:
How do we fix Matt Ryan? The issue with Vick was how do we make him good. With Ryan, it's how do we make him great. And it seems to be that many are saying, it's will and drive that make you great. And it would seem most people here would say Ryan has more will/drive than Vick, but then again since Vick won playoff games and Ryan has not yet, then I guess that would call into question. And I guess for many people, it's that cut and dry. But it's been my experience that such fallacious reasoning is common, in that people will manipulate the evidence in order to fit the results they want.

<insert cute stats here> 8-)
Now fun gus, I believe it was you who said that earlier in Ryan's career, you saw that will/drive you're looking for. So if all it takes is a will/drive, and Ryan had it one point, then what happened to it? And if it's lessened or gone completely away, then I guess the issue then becomes figuring out what has lessened it or made it go away, and if you can remove that obstacle/catalyst, then I guess you've solved the problem. :so:



Therein lies the magic question. What happened to the fired up, pissed off, in the face Matt Ryan that chewed out his Oline after getting sacked in the Arizona playoff game? Was it all Smith's fault that in the Giant Fiasco (tm) Matt Ryan checked out?

Who really knows why he changed? I dont have a solid 'answer'. But clearly, something changed. At the end of the day (or season) it's really up to Ryan to find that answer. Smith can 'help' but he cannot 'force' it.

Say what you want about Tebow ( and Im not particularly 'religious') but the man has fire and passion. He can lead.He also did something in that beatdown to the Pats Ryan didn't do vs the Giants: he put points on the board.

Now, you know well I am not a Ryan-hater, I've been one of his biggest advocates. There are few things I cannot overlook: and pussing out is one of them. Lose, if you must, but at least put up a damn fight. If we had at least scored one TD, this attitude would be vastly different. To get shut out is disgraceful. Late in the 4th quarter, Ryan looked like he was ready to get back on the plane, fly back home to his wife and guitar and call it a season.

I dont know what happened, but something did. I hope Ryan figures it out, because I have no faith Smith and co. can....

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 Post subject: Re: Matt Ryan knows the next step
PostPosted: Thu Jun 21, 2012 10:42 am 
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fun gus wrote:
Was it all Smith's fault that in the Giant Fiasco (tm) Matt Ryan checked out?

No, it was not all Smith's fault that Ryan checked out. But a significant part of it was his fault. Maybe it was 30%, maybe it was 50%, or maybe it was 70%. I don't know, how much fault Smith deserves or does not deserve is debatable. But I do think he is a significant factor in it. I think Smitty has proven himself to be a limited Xs and Os coach. I think the Falcons have ill-prepared Matt Ryan to play well in January because of how vanilla their schemes are. They haven't learned anything in 4 years of playing the Saints in order to close the gap between them. They didn't throw any new wrinkles into the mix in 2011 and thus teams could basically watch tape of the Falcons in 2010 and not have to update it for 2011 because the Falcons are very easy to figure out. Now against teams like the Vikings, Titans, Bucs, Panthers, they simply have better players and thus their vanilla stylings aren't a huge obstacle. But against teams of similar caliber or better like their 3 playoff opponents over the years, Texans, Saints, Steelers, Patriots, etc. they tend to often get punked. Is Mike Smith 100% culpable for that? No. There are a variety of factors for what that has happened, and Ryan is one of them. But I do think Smitty has a significant part to play in that since Matt Ryan is essentially executing the gameplans that Mike Smith & Co. are crafting. He can't control whether his players execute the gameplan as well, but he can control whether or not that gameplan is a winning one. And I still stand by my statement that I've been making for much of the past 5 months in that the Falcons had a losing gameplan against the Giants. And that has to be factored in is all I'm saying. And if you come away from that and still think the biggest reason we lost to the Giants is because Ryan lacked will/determination/intensity/toughness, then so be it. I can't force you to interpret evidence the way I would/do, I can only present you the evidence and let you draw your own conclusions. But IMO, one of the reasons why this debate has raged on so much in the past week or two is because I think people are being very dismissive of that huge piece of evidence.

fun gus wrote:
Smith can 'help' but he cannot 'force' it.

You're right, Smith can't make a tiger change his stripes. But I don't think it comes down to Matt Ryan having to change his stripes. Because that will/leadership does in fact exist, because as you've said we've seen it at various times. And thus I think it's Mike Smith's job to do everything in his power to bring it out of Matt Ryan as much as possible. And call me crazy, but installing gameplans that basically take Matt Ryan out of the game (IMO which is what he did against the Giants) is not the best method for doing so.

fun gus wrote:
He can lead.He also did something in that beatdown to the Pats Ryan didn't do vs the Giants: he put points on the board.

Yes, he can lead to a certain extent. If you ask him to drop back and throw the ball 30 times, he's not going to do much leading then. And look I'm not a Tebow basher. You can find threads on this forum that I said 2 years ago that I think Tebow is going to have some degree of success in the pros.

But again, I think you're taking things out of context. Yes, the Broncos did score a touchdown against the Patriots. But that TD came when Tom Brady overthrew Rob Gronkowski at the Pats own 24 yard line. Then 4 plays later the Broncos were in the endzone thanks in large part to McGahee's running (3 carries, 12 yards). Yes, Tim Tebow did complete a 12-yard pass to Demaryius Thomas on 3rd & 3 to set up McGahee's 5-yard scoring run. And later in the game, when the Patriots were up 42-7 in the 3rd quarter, the Broncos did go down the field on 14 play drive to get a Matt Prater FG. And on that drive, Tebow went 2 of 4 for 33 yards and was sacked twice for -9 yards.

And so if you want to make that single completion and that single drive of Tebow's as the personification of his leadership, toughness, will, determination then be my guest. But you'd be the one applying huge sweeping meaning to trivial events.

Now for me personally fun gus, whether the Falcons score a courtesy FG or TD at the end of the Giants game doesn't hold as much meaning with me as it apparently does with you. To me, scoring in garbage time when the opposing has let its foot off the gas doesn't mean anything to me. Nor does not scoring in garbage time mean much of anything to me.

I think a big reason (not the only reason, but a big one) for that is because the Falcons didn't have a counter punch/move. Their entire gameplan rested on their ability to establish the run early and physically push around the Giants up front. And when that didn't work, they had literally nothing else to go with. And the Falcons basically turned into this:
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And thus you saw it etched on the faces of Matt Ryan and the rest of the team, and even Mike Smith. And you'd be right, that could have been a point where Matt Ryan went to his team and teammates and gave them an inspiring motivational speech on the sideline that would make Hollywood proud. And in the eyes of many, the fact that he did not calls into question whether or not he can. I don't think it does, because I've seen him show that drive/will/heart that you speak of many times over the years. Unfortunately, he did not show it against the Giants. But I don't think that one game is going to overshadow 64 other games.

Now, this is my guess as to why Matt Ryan showed it against Arizona and not New York...While the Cardinals controlled about 75% of that game, I think the fact that the Falcons were at least competitive in that game meant that Ryan's bravado could actually be meaningful.

Sure, Ryan and the Falcons should have showed more pride vs. the Giants and said they weren't going to get shut out. But the fact that they didn't doesn't stick in my craw. Because again, I view that as one game that really doesn't have any effect on anything else. To me, the much, much, much bigger issue here is the questionable management decisions of this coaching staff and/or front office that affect multiple games over multiple seasons. Our head coach's inability to come up with good gameplans against quality opponents is much scarier than Matt Ryan not inspiring his team to get a TD in garbage time.

It's not like Smith has never done it (see 2010 Ravens game), but it's been far too few and far between to think that is not at least as significant a hurdle to overcome as questioning Matt Ryan's guts.

And to summarize the 8 billion words I've written in this thread, all I'm saying is the coach has to take the first step. Matt Ryan has to finish it, but if the head coach isn't able to or unwilling to make that first step, then there is ABSOLUTELY NOTHING Matt Ryan can do.

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 Post subject: Re: Matt Ryan knows the next step
PostPosted: Thu Jun 21, 2012 11:34 am 
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Pudge wrote:
Sure, Ryan and the Falcons should have showed more pride vs. the Giants and said they weren't going to get shut out. But the fact that they didn't doesn't stick in my craw. Because again, I view that as one game that really doesn't have any effect on anything else....



I get what your saying, but I still disagree, Losing in that way sticks in my craw, and I'll wager it sticks in Ryan's craw AND his teammates.

I liken it to the Braves getting thier a$$ kicked in the '99 World Series, swept by a totally dominating Yankees. The Braves never really recovered from that whoopin, IMO. Losing in that manner set the tone for the 2000's. They never made it past the NLDS, and the fan base never really recovered, either.

Its not whether you win or lose, it's how you play the game, they always say. There is a tiny fraction of truth in that. I'll give you that Smith has some blame, but I think you give him too much credit for Ryan's terrible play last January.

Hopefully, Ryan will find that fire again. It's the best hope I;ve got.

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 Post subject: Re: Matt Ryan knows the next step
PostPosted: Thu Jun 21, 2012 3:25 pm 
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fun gus wrote:
I'll give you that Smith has some blame, but I think you give him too much credit for Ryan's terrible play last January.

That's fair. Unfortunately, the internet and message boards like this are structured so that you have to line up on either side of the street and yell at each other. But the reality is that there is some shared blame, and that we should both be in the street somewhere in the middle, but the more we shout at each other to make our points, the closer we inch towards the curb.

I just look at the last 4 NFC Champions, and most of the teams over the past 5 years that have been the most successful in the playoffs, and see one strong common thread. They are largely QB-driven offenses. And I think there is a correlation/causality that makes that the case. I think those teams hand the keys to their QBs during the regular season and design gameplans/offenses/schemes around those QBs throwing them to victory. And the regular season essentially functions as practice for the postseason, so that after they have been battle-tested for 16 weeks, they are much more able to elevate their game to the necessary level to win in January. There's a reason why Kurt Warner and the Cardinals get hot in the playoffs, why Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers get better as the season goes on, why the Chargers and Philip Rivers are usually unbeatable in December, why Eli Manning stepped up his game in the playoffs, why even Matt Stafford seemed to elevate his game at the end of the season.

I don't think this works for every team. You need a good QB to do it. I think the Falcons have a good enough QB to do it. I think Matt Ryan has shown it throughout his career that he's capable, if truly given the opportunity. I think what has held him back is less to do with any lack of fire/guts/whatever, it has to do with the coaches: Mike Smith's natural proclivity to play Marty Ball, and the fact that Mike Mularkey has never shown any ability/proclivity to be able to design a scheme that could play that way and win. My hope is that Dirk Koetter is capable of designing such a scheme, and Mike Smith will give him the leeway to execute. I don't know if Koetter is, but I'm cautiously optimistic.

If Smith modifies his conservative style, and Koetter is capable of engineering the scheme, then I think the onus shifts to Matt Ryan to be able to fill the void and become the player that can do all those things. Maybe he will, maybe he won't. But I want to see him get that opportunity first.

IMO all they're doing most weeks is asking Ryan to manage the game for 3 quarters, and then if/when the game is close to flip on the switch in the 4th quarter to make the game-winning drive. But then January rolls around, and that style doesn't really work unless you have a 49ers/Ravens style team that has a strong defense and steady ground attack that can keep you on schedule. Otherwise, you have to flip the switch and have your QB play at that high level not for 1 quarter, but all 4. And I don't think this team has done a good job for preparing Matt Ryan to do that, and thus I don't blame him for his inability to do it thus far in his career. And what happens is in these playoff games, the game gets ahead of Ryan and the Falcons, and then Matt Ryan gets blamed for not being able to make up the difference, yet no one factors in that the reason why the game got ahead of Ryan and the team is because the coaches entered the game with a flawed plan.

And thus why I think Mike Smith deserves more than some of the blame, he deserves a lot of the blame.

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 Post subject: Re: Matt Ryan knows the next step
PostPosted: Thu Jun 21, 2012 11:21 pm 
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Pudge Wrote:
Quote:

And to summarize the 8 billion words I've written in this thread, all I'm saying is the coach has to take the first step. Matt Ryan has to finish it, but if the head coach isn't able to or unwilling to make that first step, then there is ABSOLUTELY NOTHING Matt Ryan can do.


The first step to what?? Every time Matt Ryan misses an open deep receiver he's just takes off 7 points that should be on the board.

Quote:
fun gus wrote:
I'll give you that Smith has some blame, but I think you give him too much credit for Ryan's terrible play last January.
"Then Pudge wrote'

That's fair. Unfortunately, the internet and message boards like this are structured so that you have to line up on either side of the street and yell at each other. But the reality is that there is some shared blame, and that we should both be in the street somewhere in the middle, but the more we shout at each other to make our points, the closer we inch towards the curb.


Yes I believe very strongly if we were all standing around we all could make points and acknowledge the other points and we'd all be
so much closer to agreement towards the middle.

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 Post subject: Re: Matt Ryan knows the next step
PostPosted: Fri Jun 22, 2012 12:47 am 
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Cyril wrote:
The first step to what?? Every time Matt Ryan misses an open deep receiver he's just takes off 7 points that should be on the board.

Yep, and that's an area that Matt Ryan must improve upon. Great example is the Texans game in that he has 3 early chances to hit the big play, and if he does, then that outcome of that game more than likely changes for the better in the Falcons case.

Matt Ryan has to be at least competent vertical passer (which he was not in 2011), or the Falcons offense is going to be extremely limited. But I do think the coaching staff is somewhat culpable here. They cannot make Matt Ryan hit the throws, or make him miss them. But I don't think they foster an environment that is ideal for success as a vertical offense.

I noticed a lot how when the Falcons went for the deep ball, it came in instances where they were in max protect, 2 or 3 TEs (Palmer & Kelly actually get reps), sent Jones and Roddy deep, and that was their deep play. That's fine, but IMO it's a very basic and conservative approach to the vertical pass.

I think the Falcons focus so much on not turning the ball over that Matt Ryan doesn't throw a good deep ball. This was discussed ad nauseum during the course of last season, so I won't go into it here. But anybody that was party to those debates/threads, should know my view on that.

I think in an offense that is more willing to spread the field with 4 or 5 WRs, and actually have vertical threats in the middle of the defense that could stretch the seam would benefit Ryan greatly. I think a more aggressive approach to the passing game, one that challenges Matt Ryan to make the tight window throws down the field would also benefit him as well.

Again, that's not me saying it's all on the coaching staff. But the deep ball is one of the biggest weaknesses to Matt Ryan's game. And while I do think Ryan has to do the majority of the work to improve there, I do think the coaching staff and front office aren't doing their job to the utmost. I think switching to Koetter should essentially fix the problem on the coach's end, but I don't think Dimitroff & Co. are doing their part. Since only 1.5 (Jones is 1, Roddy is the half) of their Top 5 WRs are factors down the field. When 70% of your receiving corps are at their best on the short routes, and you lack the running game that can force the extra safety up in the box, it doesn't surprise me that the deep ball isn't a major factor in your offense.

And even if you fix Ryan's deep ball, I still don't think it's going to have the wide-reaching effects you seem to think, at least not as far as the 2011 playoffs are concerned. Because even if you do, it still doesn't change the Falcons gameplan against the Giants which is going to center on the ground attack to try and slow down the Giants pass rush. Telling Ryan to hold onto the ball longer and make those 5 and 7 step drops to hit those deep passes isn't going to tilt that key matchup much in the Falcons favor.

The Falcons are fairly easy to figure out and too often IMHO their gameplans play right into the enemy's hands.

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 Post subject: Re: Matt Ryan knows the next step
PostPosted: Fri Jun 22, 2012 2:51 am 
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Well yes I do think if his long ball gets established it DOES CHANGE EVERYTHING..... i'm not good at replaying last year and making up endings; nor going to 2015 and projecting anything; but can guarantee if Ryan gets better at the long ball so will the run; and no that won't ruin our post season play unless Ryan Freezes and can't go long.

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 Post subject: Re: Matt Ryan knows the next step
PostPosted: Fri Jun 22, 2012 11:43 am 
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Pudge wrote:
Again, that's not me saying it's all on the coaching staff. But the deep ball is one of the biggest weaknesses to Matt Ryan's game. And while I do think Ryan has to do the majority of the work to improve there, I do think the coaching staff and front office aren't doing their job to the utmost. I think switching to Koetter should essentially fix the problem on the coach's end, but I don't think Dimitroff & Co. are doing their part. Since only 1.5 (Jones is 1, Roddy is the half) of their Top 5 WRs are factors down the field. When 70% of your receiving corps are at their best on the short routes, and you lack the running game that can force the extra safety up in the box, it doesn't surprise me that the deep ball isn't a major factor in your offense..



Im glad you posted that, Pudge because this time next year, I hope this is not a topic of contention...

Now, lets hope that Koetter 'fixes' this weakness in Ryans's gameplay. Weve already heard about Matt hitting the weights ( seems I heard that last offseason, too). We have heard about a 'vertical attack'...Well, if we go into next season without making progress on the deep ball, after weve known for 4 seasons ( I dont count his rookie season ) then I know exactly what Im going to hear ( barring injury).

"Well, it's really not on Matt because he was just operating under Koetter's and Smitty's plan, and it generally takes a couple seasons to get up to speed with a new coordinator'..Look, this is now 6 back to back winning seasons, something unheard of with this franchise. yadayadayada "

and then they will back up the money truck, Arthur Blank will come out with another staged presser, complete with a new 'catch phrase' (may I suggest 'All Around' as in 'Matt has certain strengths and weaknesses, but I am convinced with one more year,Ryan can improve his game to be an 'All Around' franchise QB?) and we will just kick this can down the road another year.

:mrgreen:

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 Post subject: Re: Matt Ryan knows the next step
PostPosted: Fri Jun 22, 2012 12:26 pm 
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As takeitdown has said in a variety of threads, fixing Ryan's deep ball is a relatively easy fix. Stop overthrowing his receivers, and allowing them to go up and make a play.

Matt Ryan firmly has said that if you're long you're not wrong. Which is not the sort of mantra he should have for the long ball. So if Ryan does continue to consistently overthrow his receivers this year, then yes I'm going to place a significant amount of blame on the coaching staff because IMO they would not be doing enough to get him out of that mindset.

He has 3 options that can go up and get the ball: Jones, Roddy, and Gonzo. And while eventually, you'd like to see the sort of touch where he can throw a rainbow and our guys will run right under it. But that's not going to develop overnight, and certainly I don't expect that to develop over the course of this off-season. But what he can do to make improvements on a near immediate basis is start to underthrow his receivers a little and let them go up and get it.

Now this will probably lead to some more interceptions. But at the same time, if the Falcons foster an environment that doesn't mind a few more INTs, then that won't matter. One of the things I learned over the course of watching this team in 2011 is that they do not thrive in adversity. They have to be perfect for them to win against good teams, evidenced by their losses to the Texans, Saints, and Giants at the end of the year. IMO, that's a team-wide issue, which means it comes from the head coach. I think his conservative styles make this worse.

Take for instance, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Joe Flacco.

Last year, on 3rd & 6 or more, Brees converted 45 1st downs on 90 pass attempts last year, a conversion rate of 50%. On 3rd & 11 or more, he converted 16 1st downs on 34 attempts (47%). On 3rd & 6 or less, he was 42 out of 61 (69%).

Now compare Ryan:

3rd >6 = 41 of 104 (39%)
3rd <6 = 34 of 60 (57%)
3rd 11+ = 7 of 38 (18%)

Flacco:

3rd >6 = 38 of 112 (34%)
3rd <6 = 32 of 51 (63%)
3rd 11+ = 6 of 34 (18%)

Flacco is meant to be a control, to compare Ryan to a player of similar ability/experience. Now, Brees is ridiculous. A 3rd & 12 to him and the Saints is like a 3rd & 6 for every other NFL team. But I think a big reason for that is not only Brees own ability, but the environment that the Saints have fostered over the years. Sean Payton is a very aggressive coach, in fact until 2009, he was oft-criticized for being too aggressive. I think the Saints see 3rd & 12 as any other team would see 3rd & 4. IMHO, that is not merely an extension of Brees ability, because I don't think Brees was that caliber of player when he first arrived in New Orleans.

We all know that it's easier to convert a 3rd & 2 than it is a 3rd & 10. So it is therefore in your best interest as a play-caller to engineer more 3rd & 2 situations than you have 3rd & 10s. But IMO, the best offenses in the league have the sort of swagger about them that they don't care whether it's 3rd & 2 or 3rd & 10, because they are just that good and they are going to convert anyway.

The Saints have that swagger and it's one of the reasons why they have consistently been one of the top offenses in the league over the past 3-5 years. I think ultimately it should be the goal of the Falcons to have that same sort of swagger. It won't happen overnight, and it's going to take time for that to develop (as it did in NO). A lot of that rests on Matt Ryan's ability to improve, but just as much IMO rests on the coaching staff to give him opportunity to improve with room to grow.

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 Post subject: Re: Matt Ryan knows the next step
PostPosted: Fri Jun 22, 2012 12:31 pm 
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Cyril wrote:
but can guarantee if Ryan gets better at the long ball so will the run;

This is a myth. The deep pass doesn't open up the running game. The running game opens up the deep pass. What opens up the running game is having a good RB and a good O-line.

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 Post subject: Re: Matt Ryan knows the next step
PostPosted: Fri Jun 22, 2012 12:54 pm 
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How often does any QB just heave up a 40+ fly pattern for a TD? Not very. The big scoring strikes come from the 25 yard range and the WR does the rest. Is Matt Ryan accurate with the 40 yard bombs? Nope. Is Matt Ryan accurate in the 25 yard range? Yup. Do we have the receivers to make plays after the catch? Yup. Keotter, do your job and get these receivers some room at 25 yards.


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 Post subject: Re: Matt Ryan knows the next step
PostPosted: Fri Jun 22, 2012 12:57 pm 
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It goes back to my 3rd post in this thread, in that Matt Ryan is going to get the majority of the blame from a sizable portion of this fan base for various reasons, and very little of that blame will go towards the coaching staff, and the reason for that is Matt Ryan will be compared to HOF-caliber QBs and most often found wanting, while Mike Smith will NEVER be compared against HOF-caliber coaches and therefore always look better by default.

I pose this question to you Cyril, fun gus, and everybody else still reading this thread...

1) How much of this team's lack of postseason success over the past 4 years has to do with Mike Smith and the coaches? I'm looking for a rough percentage? 10%? 30%? 50%? 70%? etc.

2) How much of Matt Ryan's struggles over the past 4 years has to do with Mike Smith and the coaches? What percentage?

3) How much of Matt Ryan's success over the past 4 years has to do with Mike Smith and the coaches?

This is where I think it is similar to Vick. One of the chief arguments of the pro-Vick crowd was that he was the overwhelmingly #1 reason why this team won games. But what they could not grasp is that should also mean that he is overwhelmingly the #1 reason why this team lost games as well.

I think the answers for #2 and #3 should be about the same.

A criticism I've had for many on this board over the years is that I believe they judge things in a vacuum. Meaning they don't apply the same sort of logic, reason, and thinking to the Falcons that they would to other teams and situations. That I think is natural given the emotional attachment that all of us have with the Falcons, that does not occur with the Seahawks or Houston Oilers.

But I wonder if I had taken Question #3 and changed it to Dan Marino-Johnny Unitas/Don Shula, Ken Anderson-Joe Montana/Bill Walsh, Drew Brees/Sean Payton, Boomer Esiason/Sam Wyche, Brett Favre-Matt Hasselbeck/Mike Holmgren, Peyton Manning/Tom Moore, Tom Brady/Bill Belichick, Phil Simms-Drew Bledsoe/Bill Parcells, Philip Rivers-Troy Aikman/Norv Turner, John Elway/Mike Shanahan, etc. would the answer be the same.

I'm betting that many folks would have answered something along the lines of "very little" for Question #2, and then subsequently for #3. But the minute I apply that to other past great QBs, the answer would have been different in the sense that those coaches would have had a significant amount of influence on those QBs.

And I wonder why is it that those coaches have a lot of influence, and our coaches do not...

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 Post subject: Re: Matt Ryan knows the next step
PostPosted: Fri Jun 22, 2012 1:57 pm 
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AngryJohnny51 wrote:
How often does any QB just heave up a 40+ fly pattern for a TD? Not very. The big scoring strikes come from the 25 yard range and the WR does the rest. Is Matt Ryan accurate with the 40 yard bombs? Nope. Is Matt Ryan accurate in the 25 yard range? Yup. Do we have the receivers to make plays after the catch? Yup. Keotter, do your job and get these receivers some room at 25 yards.


Well, I looked into that for 2010 and came away with interesting results.

The best QBs in the league completed 8 or fewer passes over 30 yards in the air all year. That's Rodgers, Manning, Brady, etc.

1 pass every 2 games. That's what everyone thinks will change the whole offense. 1 pass every 2 games.

Now, I happen to think the deep ball is important to keep D's honest, but I think the throw it up and let the receiver make a play works just as well as the perfect in stride play. Regardless, I was highly surprised at how few deep balls the best QBs complete, and it helps inform what really makes offenses work.

It's variety (multi receivers, TEs who catch, backs who catch), successful route design, decent interior OL play, and a QB who is accurate in the short and intermediate range. If you accept that those are the requirements for a great O, then you see in the Falcons case, the QB likely isn't the primary problem.

If, instead, you decide the QB needs to complete 3 passes per game over 30 yards...well, you're asking the QB to do about 6 times as much in that arena as Roethlisberger, Rodgers, or Brees and so you are setting up an offense designed to fail. When you set up an offense designed to fail (in which your player needs to be five or six times better than the best) then that is a problem of coaching, pure and simple. Half or more of the fans will preach it was an execution problem, but they won't understand just how unlikely successful execution was.


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 Post subject: Re: Matt Ryan knows the next step
PostPosted: Fri Jun 22, 2012 2:21 pm 
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Pudge wrote:
As takeitdown has said in a variety of threads, fixing Ryan's deep ball is a relatively easy fix. Stop overthrowing his receivers, and allowing them to go up and make a play.

Matt Ryan firmly has said that if you're long you're not wrong. Which is not the sort of mantra he should have for the long ball. So if Ryan does continue to consistently overthrow his receivers this year, then yes I'm going to place a significant amount of blame on the coaching staff because IMO they would not be doing enough to get him out of that mindset.

He has 3 options that can go up and get the ball: Jones, Roddy, and Gonzo. And while eventually, you'd like to see the sort of touch where he can throw a rainbow and our guys will run right under it. But that's not going to develop overnight, and certainly I don't expect that to develop over the course of this off-season. But what he can do to make improvements on a near immediate basis is start to underthrow his receivers a little and let them go up and get it.

Now this will probably lead to some more interceptions. But at the same time, if the Falcons foster an environment that doesn't mind a few more INTs, then that won't matter. One of the things I learned over the course of watching this team in 2011 is that they do not thrive in adversity. They have to be perfect for them to win against good teams, evidenced by their losses to the Texans, Saints, and Giants at the end of the year. IMO, that's a team-wide issue, which means it comes from the head coach. I think his conservative styles make this worse.

Take for instance, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Joe Flacco.

Last year, on 3rd & 6 or more, Brees converted 45 1st downs on 90 pass attempts last year, a conversion rate of 50%. On 3rd & 11 or more, he converted 16 1st downs on 34 attempts (47%). On 3rd & 6 or less, he was 42 out of 61 (69%).

Now compare Ryan:

3rd >6 = 41 of 104 (39%)
3rd <6 = 34 of 60 (57%)
3rd 11+ = 7 of 38 (18%)

Flacco:

3rd >6 = 38 of 112 (34%)
3rd <6 = 32 of 51 (63%)
3rd 11+ = 6 of 34 (18%)

Flacco is meant to be a control, to compare Ryan to a player of similar ability/experience. Now, Brees is ridiculous. A 3rd & 12 to him and the Saints is like a 3rd & 6 for every other NFL team. But I think a big reason for that is not only Brees own ability, but the environment that the Saints have fostered over the years. Sean Payton is a very aggressive coach, in fact until 2009, he was oft-criticized for being too aggressive. I think the Saints see 3rd & 12 as any other team would see 3rd & 4. IMHO, that is not merely an extension of Brees ability, because I don't think Brees was that caliber of player when he first arrived in New Orleans.

We all know that it's easier to convert a 3rd & 2 than it is a 3rd & 10. So it is therefore in your best interest as a play-caller to engineer more 3rd & 2 situations than you have 3rd & 10s. But IMO, the best offenses in the league have the sort of swagger about them that they don't care whether it's 3rd & 2 or 3rd & 10, because they are just that good and they are going to convert anyway.

The Saints have that swagger and it's one of the reasons why they have consistently been one of the top offenses in the league over the past 3-5 years. I think ultimately it should be the goal of the Falcons to have that same sort of swagger. It won't happen overnight, and it's going to take time for that to develop (as it did in NO). A lot of that rests on Matt Ryan's ability to improve, but just as much IMO rests on the coaching staff to give him opportunity to improve with room to grow.


And what's further interesting here, Pudge, is Ryan in 2008 (in that year we all note he threw it up and let his receivers go to work) was great in 3rd and long. Ryan completed 60% of his passes for nearly 20 yards per completion. He was right up there. But that relied on him not trying to be perfect. I don't have your stats on successful vs unsuccessful, but I remember the Falcons were very good on 3rd and 11+. I also remember Roddy adjusted and came back for a lot of balls. I remember being the most confident in 3rd and long I'd ever been.

As a receiver, the most frustrating thing is having the QB overthrow you and not let you make a play. Especially when you have a step...it's like he's showing off and trying to be perfect instead of trying to just get the completion. That's, unfortunately, how our coaches have wanted the game played and it is utterly stupid. I know that's stronger than I normally state it, but it's just wrongheaded.


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 Post subject: Re: Matt Ryan knows the next step
PostPosted: Sat Jun 23, 2012 1:18 am 
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Cyril wrote:
I didn't say " a player" I said a special Qb that thinks he's going to be a great one. I also just hope folks will understand no one just starts out making demands; or telling a head coach " how its gonna be" no they earn it a little; year by year; until by the third season they should be able to have private meetings about game plans; for the offense; or the complete ability to check to any play they want.

Some Qbs are not smart enough to do this; but Ryan is. I think Ryan will go along to get along. No coach ever put a deer in the headlight in a Qbs eyes. The great ones move the coaches thinking more to theirs; as the years go by.
Cyril speaks the truth once again. How can anyone argue with this? :shock:


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 Post subject: Re: Matt Ryan knows the next step
PostPosted: Sat Jun 23, 2012 5:15 am 
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SteveH wrote:
Cyril wrote:
I didn't say " a player" I said a special Qb that thinks he's going to be a great one. I also just hope folks will understand no one just starts out making demands; or telling a head coach " how its gonna be" no they earn it a little; year by year; until by the third season they should be able to have private meetings about game plans; for the offense; or the complete ability to check to any play they want.

Some Qbs are not smart enough to do this; but Ryan is. I think Ryan will go along to get along. No coach ever put a deer in the headlight in a Qbs eyes. The great ones move the coaches thinking more to theirs; as the years go by.
Cyril speaks the truth once again. How can anyone argue with this? :shock:

I can point out Drew Brees... In San Diego, they considered him washed up. He was not, "moving the coaches." But as soon as he was paired with Sean Payton, he started tearing up the league and became this fantastic motivational leader.


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 Post subject: Re: Matt Ryan knows the next step
PostPosted: Sat Jun 23, 2012 9:31 pm 
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RobertAP wrote:
SteveH wrote:
Cyril wrote:
I didn't say " a player" I said a special Qb that thinks he's going to be a great one. I also just hope folks will understand no one just starts out making demands; or telling a head coach " how its gonna be" no they earn it a little; year by year; until by the third season they should be able to have private meetings about game plans; for the offense; or the complete ability to check to any play they want.

Some Qbs are not smart enough to do this; but Ryan is. I think Ryan will go along to get along. No coach ever put a deer in the headlight in a Qbs eyes. The great ones move the coaches thinking more to theirs; as the years go by.
Cyril speaks the truth once again. How can anyone argue with this? :shock:

I can point out Drew Brees... In San Diego, they considered him washed up. He was not, "moving the coaches." But as soon as he was paired with Sean Payton, he started tearing up the league and became this fantastic motivational leader.


Brees? Really? You think it was the great Gazoo Sean 'Rack em up' Peyton that 'guided' SP to winning? Sure, a little. But what about when he loses?

Okay, I will play. Show me ONE article from the last 2 seasons where any person put any blame for thier postseason loss on anyone other then Brees. Im not talking ' cripplegate'. Who blamed the great Peyton? Hello?

And please real articles. .

Anyone?

I know that Peyton has had an effect on Brees, and is a good coach. But remember that Sports Science short where Brees faced off against an Olympic archer from 50 meters and kicked his a$$? Do you think Peyton 'taught Brees to throw that way? How much of a 'percentage' has Peyton's 'coaching ' helped Brees nail a bullseye with a football?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVoqA-LKGb4

Brees just has natural talent. Sure, maybe his footwork, planting some of that could come from Sean Peyton, but it is really Brees doing that..

Redman was another story just like that. d***head Petrino brought him in. He made good. Now, he is just average.

But, folks thought that was a bad hire. I was one of them...Not true. He was a great hire for 2 seasons.

I agree with Cyril that no 'coach' ever forced a good franchise QB to puss out. Ever. No points in garbage time? That's on Matt, Im afraid. Just like when Vick quit, it wasn't because of Mora, it was because he was a quitter.

I havent forgotten the Giant Fiasco(tm), and I probably wont for many years to come. Kinda like I'll never forget that first game when Vick came back with the Iggles and half our stadium was cheering him on. That one sticks, too. If I see the Eagles on our home schedule, those tickets go straight to StubHub...

I will happily admit Im a dumbass. I've been married for 15 years, it is a learned trait. But I refuse to let the same 'excuses' roll for Ryan as did for other former Falcon's QB's.

Your milage may vary :beef:

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 Post subject: Re: Matt Ryan knows the next step
PostPosted: Sun Jun 24, 2012 2:24 am 
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"Pudge Wrote":
Quote:
A criticism I've had for many on this board over the years is that I believe they judge things in a vacuum. Meaning they don't apply the same sort of logic, reason, and thinking to the Falcons that they would to other teams and situations. That I think is natural given the emotional attachment that all of us have with the Falcons, that does not occur with the Seahawks or Houston Oilers.


A criticism I've had of your thinking just as you criticize mine is this " Pudge wrote"
Quote:
So if Ryan does continue to consistently overthrow his receivers this year, then yes I'm going to place a significant amount of blame on the coaching staff because IMO they would not be doing enough to get him out of that mindset.


THAT'S SUCH BS. If we have a Qb that can be brainwashed and is supposed to be rather smart; this is the dumbest logic you've made all preseason and no one has called you on!! If you call throwing a accurate pass a mindset then we just need to keep going through Qbs WHO WILL NOT BE BRAINWASHED!! SUCH BULLSHIT!! If Ryan sees an open receiver and panics and can throw him the ball; then its 100% on the Qb. I know you'll think this is stupid yourself; but I have played organized football under different coaches and the good Qbs attitude was if they can find someone better go ahead. The poor ones were just trying to please!!

To answer a question from a few posts back I can't lump it all in 3 games to the same number..... I'd guess 70% Matt Ryan's fault
with the stupid pass against the Packers to let them get all the momentum at half time; I'd guess 70% Matt Ryan's fault against the
Giants; and 25% Coach Smith's fault against the Cardinals. We should have won that game!!

The reason Matt Ryan is compared to some of the best Qbs is he was #3 pick as you know and he acts like he thinks he's going to get their..... Mike Smith on the other hand came from a small school in Tennessee and was a person no one had ever heard of except in Jacksonville;
so until he proves he's winning playoff games he's gonna have to earn his status while Ryan was given his!!

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 Post subject: Re: Matt Ryan knows the next step
PostPosted: Mon Jun 25, 2012 1:40 am 
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fun gus wrote:
RobertAP wrote:
SteveH wrote:
Cyril wrote:
I didn't say " a player" I said a special Qb that thinks he's going to be a great one. I also just hope folks will understand no one just starts out making demands; or telling a head coach " how its gonna be" no they earn it a little; year by year; until by the third season they should be able to have private meetings about game plans; for the offense; or the complete ability to check to any play they want.

Some Qbs are not smart enough to do this; but Ryan is. I think Ryan will go along to get along. No coach ever put a deer in the headlight in a Qbs eyes. The great ones move the coaches thinking more to theirs; as the years go by.
Cyril speaks the truth once again. How can anyone argue with this? :shock:

I can point out Drew Brees... In San Diego, they considered him washed up. He was not, "moving the coaches." But as soon as he was paired with Sean Payton, he started tearing up the league and became this fantastic motivational leader.


Brees? Really? You think it was the great Gazoo Sean 'Rack em up' Peyton that 'guided' SP to winning? Sure, a little. But what about when he loses?

Okay, I will play. Show me ONE article from the last 2 seasons where any person put any blame for thier postseason loss on anyone other then Brees. Im not talking ' cripplegate'. Who blamed the great Peyton? Hello?

And please real articles. .

Anyone?

I know that Peyton has had an effect on Brees, and is a good coach. But remember that Sports Science short where Brees faced off against an Olympic archer from 50 meters and kicked his a$$? Do you think Peyton 'taught Brees to throw that way? How much of a 'percentage' has Peyton's 'coaching ' helped Brees nail a bullseye with a football?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVoqA-LKGb4

Brees just has natural talent. Sure, maybe his footwork, planting some of that could come from Sean Peyton, but it is really Brees doing that..

Redman was another story just like that. d***head Petrino brought him in. He made good. Now, he is just average.

But, folks thought that was a bad hire. I was one of them...Not true. He was a great hire for 2 seasons.

I agree with Cyril that no 'coach' ever forced a good franchise QB to puss out. Ever. No points in garbage time? That's on Matt, Im afraid. Just like when Vick quit, it wasn't because of Mora, it was because he was a quitter.

I havent forgotten the Giant Fiasco(tm), and I probably wont for many years to come. Kinda like I'll never forget that first game when Vick came back with the Iggles and half our stadium was cheering him on. That one sticks, too. If I see the Eagles on our home schedule, those tickets go straight to StubHub...

I will happily admit Im a dumbass. I've been married for 15 years, it is a learned trait. But I refuse to let the same 'excuses' roll for Ryan as did for other former Falcon's QB's.

Your milage may vary :beef:

I don't think that you got the point of my post... I was pointing out that with Marty Shottenheimer, Drew Brees was what Matt Ryan has been under Mularkey. Brees wasn't getting Schottenheimer to change his ways to make Brees the focal point of the team. As such, Ol' Marty was preventing Brees from becoming the player that we know today. From Cyril's argument, Brees should have been able to manipulate Marty to see things his way, but again, that's just not how it works. The player answers to the coach. If the coach chooses to involve the player, kudos on the coach, but that decision is up to the coach, not the player.

As soon as Brees was paired with SP, who did allow Brees more influence over the scheme, Brees blossomed into one of the 3 best QBs of our time.

It could be that I misinterpreted the point that Cyril was trying to make, this is the internet after all...


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 Post subject: Re: Matt Ryan knows the next step
PostPosted: Mon Jun 25, 2012 1:56 am 
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fun gus wrote:
Brees just has natural talent.

Natural talent cultivated by a scheme. What you're not understand is that Sean Payton's scheme cultivates that skillset by employing a gameplan that each week is designed to get Brees to play at his best football. Because Payton understands that if Brees isn't playing great football, then the Saints aren't going to win. That is the key difference between the Saints and Falcons, and Brees and Ryan. Yes, Drew Brees is a more talented player than Matt Ryan. That talent has been cultivated in a scheme designed to maximize his skillset. That is not the case in Atlanta, therefore Matt Ryan would have be extraordinary to measure up to Brees.

Cyril wrote:
THAT'S SUCH BS. If we have a Qb that can be brainwashed and is supposed to be rather smart; this is the dumbest logic you've made all preseason and no one has called you on!! If you call throwing a accurate pass a mindset then we just need to keep going through Qbs WHO WILL NOT BE BRAINWASHED!! SUCH BULLSHIT!! If Ryan sees an open receiver and panics and can throw him the ball; then its 100% on the Qb. I know you'll think this is stupid yourself; but I have played organized football under different coaches and the good Qbs attitude was if they can find someone better go ahead. The poor ones were just trying to please!!

Ryan consistently overthrows his receivers on the deep routes because he believes "if you're long you're not wrong." He has said this before when discussing his throws at times. What that translates to is Ryan playing it safe. If Matt Ryan continues to do this and misses on his deep throws, then I'm going to blame a lot of that on the coaching staff. Matt Ryan shouldn't be playing it safe like that, not with the receivers he has in Julio and Roddy.

If this doesn't change, then I believe then the coaches aren't doing their job. Sometimes you have to coach up players. And right now, Matt Ryan is a poor deep passer. And if the coaches just leave him to his own devices as you seem to be suggesting, then they are not good coaches.

Cyril wrote:
Mike Smith on the other hand came from a small school in Tennessee and was a person no one had ever heard of except in Jacksonville; so until he proves he's winning playoff games he's gonna have to earn his status while Ryan was given his!!

So, you're saying that if a coach is unable to lead a team to a playoff win, it doesn't really matter based upon his reputation prior to being hired? So you're saying, because Mike Smith originated as an assistant at Tennesse Tech, means that as an NFL coach it doesn't really matter if he wins a playoff game. That everybody that is an NFL head coach is not required to win playoff games?

You're saying that being one of the 32 NFL head coaches, is not enough to earn the status of being capable of leading a team to a playoff victory? You're saying that because Tony Romo was undrafted, he is not required to lead the Cowboys to a playoff victory to retain his starting position?

You accuse me of spouting BS...takes one to know one...

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 Post subject: Re: Matt Ryan knows the next step
PostPosted: Mon Jun 25, 2012 2:39 am 
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I only spout that once in 10 times where I should (:

"Pudge wrote"
Quote:

So, you're saying that if a coach is unable to lead a team to a playoff win, it doesn't really matter based upon his reputation prior to being hired? So you're saying, because Mike Smith originated as an assistant at Tennesse Tech, means that as an NFL coach it doesn't really matter if he wins a playoff game. That everybody that is an NFL head coach is not required to win playoff games?


What are you talking about? I'm simply saying the reality that since no one had heard of Coach Smith he must win some playoff games
to move up to the elite status; or be considered one. While Ryan was drafted #3 in the draft and his expectations were set higher even if they shouldn't be! Does that make since.? I've just never heard of a player not being able to hit the long ball; and you blame it on the coach. You think Breeze or Manning; and even most second stringers think about anything except hitting the open receiver.....

A wide open receiver and if its missed you want to blame that on the coach?? Your a Qbs dream (: Is the the 2012 system for
no accountability; and all your mistakes are the product of others? Most of Ryan's interceptions are not the long ones (he just misses those) but the same 25 yarder where he makes a poor decision; but we need to stay on track; without Ryan hitting some longer shots this year we don't have a deep threat.....

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 Post subject: Re: Matt Ryan knows the next step
PostPosted: Mon Jun 25, 2012 12:30 pm 
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I'm not blaming the coach for missed throws. I'm blaming the coaches for how those passes are missed. There is a subtle difference.

It's analogous to if a student was being tutored and then failed a test. That is not the tutor's fault. He can't make the student answer the questions correctly. But there are certain ways that you can take multiple choice questions that help you. And if the student fails to do those things, then that is the tutor's fault.

Matt Ryan throws a bad deep ball. IMHO, the reason for that is because Matt Ryan is playing it safe by overthrowing his receivers to prevent INTs. Basically, if his guy isn't going to catch it, then nobody is going to catch it. That isn't a terrible thing, but it's contributing to why Matt Ryan was a poor deep passer last year because he's putting more work on himself by essentially having to perfectly place a throw in the bucket for it to be completed. To make those kinds of throws, he needs to showcase perfect touch.

If the Falcons leave Matt Ryan to his own devices, that likely needs to be changed. Newton's 1st law, an object in motion/at rest will not change until it is acted upon by an external force. And it seems to me that you and others are suggesting that facilitating and making that change is entirely on Matt Ryan, and my response to that is if that is the case, then WTF is the point of having coaches?

If they want him to improve, then he needs to do more of throwing it up to allow his guys to make a play. With his receivers like Julio, Roddy, and Gonzo, they have showcased frequently that they are adept at doing this. You don't need to throw the ball with perfect touch when you have a 6-3 monster with a 39-inch vertical.

And when Matt Ryan was at a point in his career where he was a rookie and had received less NFL coaching, he threw this type of deep ball. That was in 2008, when Matt Ryan was one of the Top 3 deep passers in the league in terms of accuracy. And in subsequent years, he's gotten worse with more coaching and been among the worst deep passers in the league. If you are to examine those context clues, then you should conclude that (more) coaching is having some (negative) influence on him. How much influence, is open to debate as are many things.

And IMO, Ryan's playing it safe has something to do with coaching. IMHO, they're so focused on limiting turnovers that they aren't doing a good enough job to get him out of that mentality. For me, the whole game manager, conservative offensive philosophy meshes too well with that to think coaching isn't influencing it to some degree.

Cyril wrote:
I'm simply saying the reality that since no one had heard of Coach Smith he must win some playoff games
to move up to the elite status; or be considered one.

So are you saying that having the 4th highest regular season win percentage isn't enough to get him considered an elite coach? It sounds like you're saying that Matt Ryan is held to a higher standard than Mike Smith. Which I agree with, because that's something I've been saying throughout this thread. But it also sounds like you're saying that difference in standard is justified by the fact that Matt Ryan was a Top 3 overall pick, and Mike Smith was not well known when he got the Falcon job. That to me is BS.

I think there is only ONE standard for an NFL head coach: winning championships. If you are not capable of putting your team in position to win one then you should not hold your job. Obviously there aren't 32 guys that can do that, and subsequently there is a relatively high rate of turnover for head coaches.

That's not the same for QBs. Because there are two main categories of starting QBs: 1) franchise and 2) the other guys. Franchise guys are the guys that many people refer to as the guys that you can build your team/offense around for 5-15 years. The other guys basically can keep the seat warm for 1-3 years until you find that guy. Jason Campbell, David Garrard, and Ryan Fitzpatrick are of the latter category. Matt Ryan, Robert Griffin, and Drew Brees IMO are of the former category. I think Matt Ryan is a Top 10 QB, 9th ranked this past year, 7th ranked the year before. And most if not all of the guys ranked ahead of him are going to be in the HOF. And if being right behind HOFers isn't good enough, then I don't get it. And it seems like people seem to be perfectly fine with that being the standard.

And thus why isn't that standard applied to Mike Smith? Why isn't he held up against Bill Belichick, and the obvious disparity between the two, and why aren't we discussing that through 75 posts on a thread? Why isn't he measured against Mike Tomlin, Sean Payton, or Andy Reid? And if he's found to be lesser or subpar, just like Ryan is of the Drew Brees and Peyton Manning-caliber QBs, then why aren't we as demanding/critical of Mike Smith not being Belichick or Payton?

And if your answer to that is because he spent 12 years as an assistant at Tennessee Tech, then I say that is a steaming pile of BS. Yeah, that is what should be used to define him and set the standard. No, not the fact that he won and earned a Super Bowl ring during his time in Baltimore as an assistant, or the fact that he was able to coordinate a Top 10 defense practically all 5 years he was the DC in Jacksonville... :roll:

If you as a football team have a Top 10 QB much like the Chargers, Giants, Cowboys, and Falcons do, but you fail to win enough games during the regular season to consistently make the playoffs, and/or can't win consistently once you do get to the playoffs, then I think a significant amount of blame shifts from Philip Rivers, Eli Manning, Tony Romo, and Matt Ryan to Norv Turner, Tom Coughlin, Jason Garrett/Wade Phillips, and Mike Smith. Now, IMO the Giants have been able to overcome this because IMO Coughlin is a superior coach to Mike Smith, and the Ernie Accorsi legacy that is Jerry Reese is a better run front office than ours.

And I know some will say the fact that Eli Manning is better than Matt Ryan has something to do with it. But the funny thing is that prior to this year, there wasn't anybody on this forum that would have made that claim (because guess what, we've had that discussion before in these forums). And just like the Giants stuck by Eli Manning 3 years ago with a big extension, I think the Falcons should do the same with Matt Ryan. And then Eli wasn't an elite QB, and to this day he is still not an elite QB in my eyes.

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 Post subject: Re: Matt Ryan knows the next step
PostPosted: Mon Jun 25, 2012 12:53 pm 
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Pudge wrote:
If the Falcons leave Matt Ryan to his own devices, that likely needs to be changed. Newton's 1st law, an object in motion/at rest will not change until it is acted upon by an external force. And it seems to me that you and others are suggesting that facilitating and making that change is entirely on Matt Ryan, and my response to that is if that is the case, then WTF is the point of having coaches?

If they want him to improve, then he needs to do more of throwing it up to allow his guys to make a play. With his receivers like Julio, Roddy, and Gonzo, they have showcased frequently that they are adept at doing this. You don't need to throw the ball with perfect touch when you have a 6-3 monster with a 39-inch vertical..



therein lies the problem we have. I dont think anyone has said it's entirely Matt Ryan's fault, just that it's more on Matt then Smith at this point.

I think with a QB like Matt Ryan, who is now a seasoned veteran and has made the trip 3 times to the playoffs, if he is missing something I put more emphasis on Ryan. And I guess some agree with me, because all I can see in the press lately is how 'bulky' Matt Ryan is getting. Well, was it Mike Smith that 'waited' until the offseason of 2012 to bulk up, or Matt Ryan's? What, did Dirk Koetter let Matty have his Booty Boot Camp card? :P

Matt Ryan also has to 'trust' his receivers to go up and get the ball, and I dont see how Mike Smith gets that done. I think Matt Ryan has to accomplish that...Maybe Smith can help, but he cant pull the trigger...

And I think besides all the iron pumping and film watching, Ryan is doing something to get back some of the intensity he commanded his rookie season. Now maybe Mike Smith and a team of Hollywood writers can script the perfect pregame speech that would give everyone goosepimples, but Im of the opinion that is something Matt Ryan has got to figure out on his own. :ninja:

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 Post subject: Re: Matt Ryan knows the next step
PostPosted: Mon Jun 25, 2012 2:31 pm 
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Location: North Carolina
But it's interesting fun gus that 3 years ago back in 2009 when Michael Turner was going through his fumbling issues. The both of us agreed that if Turner had fumbled in 5 consecutive games, then Mike Smith needed to step in and do something about it. Leaving Turner to his own devices and simply reminding him to the three-point the football at that point would no longer be effective, and thus something more drastic would need to be done. At the time our suggestions were making Turner come off the bench, reducing his workload. We weren't sure, but you and I knew we didn't have the answers, but Mike Smith the man who was being paid $3.5 million should have those answers.

This issue is no different IMO. Matt Ryan is doing it wrong in reference to how he throws the deep ball. And if the coaches cannot step in and tell him how to do it right, then what good are they? There is no room for failure. They have to find a way to get results somehow, and if Matt Ryan isn't completing 35-45% of his deep passes this year and every year that he is being coached by these coaches, then they are not doing their job. The last 3 years, he's completed under 35%, and in 2008 it was up around 50%. I don't expect him to be completing 50% every year, because I believe that to a significant degree Roddy White bailed him out of a lot of questionable throws. But all he really has to be is average or above average, because then that gives you the ability to make up for it in other areas.

We know from a psychological standpoint if you are only focused on preventing failure rather than encouraging success, then the likelihood of failure occurring increases. I think too much of the Falcon's offensive environment especailly when it comes to Matt Ryan is focused on preventing failure rather than encouraging success. And that comes from the coach, not the QB. Joe Montana, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady didn't instill this in their respective environments and teams. Bill Walsh, Sean Payton, and Bill Belichick did this. And IMO, if Mike Smith does more of this, then it will be reflected in Matt Ryan's play.

I just don't get how anybody can separate the fact that Matt Ryan was not a significant factor in the gameplan against the Giants as a major reason why he didn't play well in that game. You say well it's not the coaches fault that Matt Ryan didn't execute at the end of that game to score points. And you'd be right. But that doesn't mean that the coaches are absolved of blame. We didn't score points at the end of that game because we went for it multiple times on 4th down rather than kicking field goals. We had bad play calls in short-yardage situations. These are widely accepted facts that the Falcons overall gameplan against the Giants was flawed. That their decisions and calls in those short-yardage situations was flawed. And how someone can simply ignore, dismiss, or minimize that and say that it's all (or mostly) on Matt Ryan through sheer will and determination overcome those things and score points and/or lead the Falcons to victory is complete BS if you ask me. And the suggestion that Tim Tebow did that against the Steelers is also BS.

There are multiple reasons why this team is underachieving in January. And one of those reasons is Matt Ryan. And another is Mike Smith. And there are several others. Poor offensive line play. Poor pass rush. Subpar personnel decisions. If the Falcons hope to be a championship-caliber team they will have to overcome all or most of these issues.

I believe if the Falcons get better coaching from Mike Smith & Co. then that will allow Matt Ryan to improve as well. But I don't think it works the other way around. The oft-used example of Brees is a great illustration of this. The difference between Brees of San Diego that was a very good game manager and the Brees of New Orleans that was a great QB and future HOFer isn't because Brees made the decision to change and be better. Is that part of it? Sure, I'm sure it's somewhat a factor. But the key difference, the #1 reason why we saw improvement in Drew Brees was going from a Marty Schottenheimer run offense and team to a Sean Payton run offense and team. And if you don't think that going from an uber-conservative coach under Marty to a super-aggressive coach under Payton wasn't the critical difference in making Drew Brees into the player that he is today, then I don't know what to tell you.

I don't ever expect Mike Smith to be Sean Payton. But on the spectrum that is Payton and Marty, my hope is that he starts to move closer to Payton.

The key point of convergence between you and I fun gus is that I don't see our inability to score points late in the Giants game as the straw that broke the camel's back. I don't separate that from our overall gameplan being flawed in that game. That doesn't originate with Matt Ryan's lack of toughness/will, but from that initially flawed gameplan. I agree 100% with you that we should have scored points in that game. But the fact that we didn't does make me question Matt Ryan's toughness. Because I've seen numerous times over the past 4 years a very tough QB. But what it does make me question is whether Mike Smith is a coach capable of beating good NFL teams that we will likely come across int he playoffs. Because that is something I have not seen numerous times over the past 4 years.

It seems like to me your argument boils down to Matt Ryan needing to make up for Mike Smith's shortcomings. And thus it makes me wonder why Mike Smith is allowed to have these shortcomings, but Matt Ryan is not? Everyone admits that QBs get too much credit when teams win and too much blame when teams lose and that is unfair. Yet no one seems to be making the effort to stop doing that.

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 Post subject: Re: Matt Ryan knows the next step
PostPosted: Mon Jun 25, 2012 8:49 pm 
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When coaches speak about their QB needing to play within the system and minimize mistakes, what do you guys think they're talking about?
If the system is based around zero mistakes (which Mularkey's was) and they take this to the deep ball...then the QB will be explicitly told to play within the system, don't leave any room for INT...overthrow the deep ball. Which we've seen.

I don't know why people think it's fine for the QB to play outside of the system. That's what gets QBs (even franchise QBs) benched. If you preach "long can't be wrong" on the deep ball...you're going to decrease your completion percentage by around 20% there.

I have a lot of problems with Ryan, but if anyone thinks uber conservative coaching is helping the long ball, I've gotta say think again. Think about the system, the process, the lack of errors Smith preaches over and over. That's what you see show up on the long ball. Ryan's not good at it...I don't think anyone is debating that. The question is, when your QB can't drop the ball exactly in place from 55 yards, do you tell him "put it up there and let the receiver make a play" or do you tell him "long can't be wrong?" In the former, you see Ryan's rookie year, Eli, etc. In the latter, you see what we have now. Ryan could change nothing else about his game besides throwing the deep ball 2 yards shorter (which is easy) and the completion percentage on deep balls would skyrocket (and there would be about 3 more INTs). It's easy. It's not being done. Makes it almost certain it's on purpose.


Aside: Pudge, can you tell me where you're getting the successful/unsuccessful 3rd down numbers by yardage?


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