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 Post subject: and...boom goes the dynamite
PostPosted: Sat Feb 25, 2012 6:10 pm 
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With decreasing effectiveness and a $5 million salary, Falcons running back Michael Turner could theoretically be a candidate for release this offseason.

Speaking Saturday at the Scouting Combine, Falcons coach Mike Smith indicated Turner will be back with the team.

“We want to keep [Michael] as our feature back, but we need to make sure we some of the other guys carries as well,” Smith said.

Jacquizz Rodgers will be a bigger part of the offense in 2012. Jason Snelling is a free agent, so the Falcons will look to add another back. Smith made it clear Turner will stick around, he just isn’t likely to top 300 carries again.

“I think the thing we have to do as Michael gets a little older is to start putting him on a pitch count in terms of the numbers of carries,” Smith said.


http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/20 ... tch-count/

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 Post subject: Re: and...boom goes the dynamite
PostPosted: Sat Feb 25, 2012 10:00 pm 
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Yea maybe we drop his carries to 3. Wait till the O-coordinator sees his hands are as bad as they look.

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 Post subject: Re: and...boom goes the dynamite
PostPosted: Sat Feb 25, 2012 10:06 pm 
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Not at all a surprise. Anybody that knows Mike Smith knew this it was a forgone conclusion that Turner woudl be back in Atlanta. 1300 yards rushing, it would take a coach & GM with some serious cajones to cut him. Clearly, not everything TD brought with him from Foxboro.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eunuch

Things do not bode well for the Falcons offense this year, setting up to be a real Dallas Cowboys situation potentailly, where there's a push/pull to maintain being a strong running team, when it's clear that is no longer their best avenue to win on any given Sunday.

Had the Falcons had a 4th round pick this coming April, maybe the odds that Turner is not a Falcon in 2012 increase by 30%. Therefore the odds the Falcons are an improved offense in 2012 correspondingly increase by 30%. Thanks Thomas. :roll:

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 Post subject: Re: and...boom goes the dynamite
PostPosted: Sat Feb 25, 2012 10:51 pm 
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Pudge, what RB's do you think will be around come our second round pic, that may have potential to start in the future? In the last few years RB's are a position that may get under drafted, perhaps to the point where we can get a top 30-40 player with our pic...

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 Post subject: Re: and...boom goes the dynamite
PostPosted: Sat Feb 25, 2012 11:07 pm 
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Gee, I'm shocked. I knew this would be the case, as Smitty thinks running Turner is the key to victory. "We will put him on a pitch count." Translation: Instead of running Turner 20+ times a game, we will run him 18+ times a game. I just think this whole ball control, run Turner offense needs to be scrapped asap. We are not beating great teams with this crap. Smitty is borderline delusional if he thinks we will. Maybe he has or maybe he hasn't, but when was the last time Turner rushed for 125+ on a good to great defense?


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 Post subject: Re: and...boom goes the dynamite
PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2012 10:22 am 
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DaveWaz wrote:
Pudge, what RB's do you think will be around come our second round pic, that may have potential to start in the future? In the last few years RB's are a position that may get under drafted, perhaps to the point where we can get a top 30-40 player with our pic...

DW, this years draft class is an okay one for RB's. Even with our '55' we could pick up a starter. If we had not overpayed for Julio Hamstring Jones, and we had a first round pick, Trent Richardson would be ideal. Lamar Miller would be another candidate. But since we now have the 55 pick, if we wanted to, we could pick up a servicable guy and we could platoon with Snelling, Quizz and that guy. We might get Lennon Creer, a guy who has the 'big back' build but good hands, too. That is, if we used the 55 pick to address the RB situation...

But why bother? Lets give Turner the churner 2 more million and use him less. Superbowl! :down:

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 Post subject: Re: and...boom goes the dynamite
PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2012 1:35 pm 
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I think this year's RB class is better than OK.

Bernard Pierce (Temple), Robert Turbin (Utah State), Doug Martin (Boise State), Chris Polk (Washington), Cyrus Gray (Texas A&M), Tauren Poole (Tennessee), and Vick Ballard (Mississippi State) are all good RBs that I think can work well in a commitee system, and most offer good ability as a receivers that will all likely be picked between Pick No. 35 and Pick 100.

David Wilson (VT) and Lamar Miller (MIami) I assume are going to be Top 50 picks. There are other really good RBs as well, although I think their niche/skillset is similar to Quizz's so, I don't see them as ideal pickups, such as Isaiah Pead (Cincinnati), LaMichael James (Oregon), Ronnie Hillman (San Diego St.), etc.

I think the Falcons if they had more mid-round draft ammo could move picks for players like Knowshon Moreno, Anthony Dixon, Rashad Jennings, Chris Ivory, Danny Ware, all of whom have upside not to mention they could easily sign FAs such as Tashard Choice, Peyton Hillis, Cedric Benson, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Michael Bush, Mike Tolbert, or Earnest Graham that could provide a lot if not more of the same things that Turner does.

But it shows A) the lack of vision of the powers that be in Atlanta and B) is just another indicator of poor draft-day decisions having negative consequences to the team's ability to improve in subsequent years.

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 Post subject: Re: and...boom goes the dynamite
PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2012 2:36 pm 
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I thought cutting ties with players a year or two before their play dropped off was the New England way. They should at least try to get him to restructure his deal a 5 million dollar cap hit for a feature back that is on a pitch count? Thats absurd, for all this talk about fiscal responsibility TD sure doesnt practice what he preaches.

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 Post subject: Re: and...boom goes the dynamite
PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2012 2:38 pm 
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Reezy The Savior wrote:
I thought cutting ties with players a year or two before their play dropped off was the New England way. They should at least try to get him to restructure his deal a 5 million dollar cap hit for a feature back that is on a pitch count? Thats absurd, for all this talk about fiscal responsibility TD sure doesnt practice what he preaches.



no kidding. Watch them lock up Ryan a year too early as well.....sigh.

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 Post subject: Re: and...boom goes the dynamite
PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2012 2:53 pm 
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I hear ya, Reezy. I don't know if the Falcons have enough Kool Aid running through their veins to do what seems to need to be done. It seems they still maybe get too close to players with their character approach and locker room chemistry thing. I see no reason whatsoever to extending Ryan now with two full years left on his contract and agree that MT should have been asked to restructure, at the least. I don't think he is any more of a threat to other teams than, say, Brandon Jacobs...adequate but not really scary. Without burst and top end speed he's just a cog.

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 Post subject: Re: and...boom goes the dynamite
PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2012 4:22 pm 
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The reason you extend Ryan is money. He's owed $13 million against the cap this year, and $10M against the cap next year. Potentially by extending his deal, that $23M you are set to pay out over the next 2 years gets spread for 3 years. Maybe that $3-5M you can potentially save in the cap this year and/or next year means you can go out and get a big-time FA.

But otherwise I agree, the Falcons don't need to be in a rush to re-sign Ryan, although you knew they aren't going to let him get to FA in 2014 where the price is only going to be higher than it is now.

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 Post subject: Re: and...boom goes the dynamite
PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2012 9:29 pm 
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Thanks for the feedback guys, with us having no first round pic, I have spent exactly zero minutes researching the draft so far. If this is as Pudge state's an above average rb class than I think it could be a great use for our pic this year. Draft a rb in the second let him split with Turner this year, then let him take over next year when we get rid of Turner, or keep Turner as a back up.

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 Post subject: Re: and...boom goes the dynamite
PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2012 7:47 am 
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Pudge wrote:
The reason you extend Ryan is money. He's owed $13 million against the cap this year, and $10M against the cap next year. Potentially by extending his deal, that $23M you are set to pay out over the next 2 years gets spread for 3 years. Maybe that $3-5M you can potentially save in the cap this year and/or next year means you can go out and get a big-time FA.

But otherwise I agree, the Falcons don't need to be in a rush to re-sign Ryan, although you knew they aren't going to let him get to FA in 2014 where the price is only going to be higher than it is now.



but 2 years is too long IMO. Look at Peyton Manning. If the Colts decided 2 years ago to 'save' 3 million by extending Peyton's contract, how screwed would they be right now? When Vick went to jail, did we get any cap 'relief'?Im not sure... IIRC, the Falcons reupped him in 2006, in 2007 he was in prison, and the team tried to sue to get back something like 16 million and LOST.

Nobody is saying Matt Ryan is going to jail anytime soon, but don't rule out major injury. Without our picks, our OL is still screwed. The 'best' we can hope for is a viable LT. By 'saving' 3 mil in cap space, they also gamble on him remaining injury free for the next 3-4 years. I would not take that gamble this year. I would wait until next offseason after seeing what Ryan looks like with the new coordinators. YMMV.

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 Post subject: Re: and...boom goes the dynamite
PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2012 11:17 am 
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I don't know that the price will be higher in 14 thoughit is likely. The price of everything else will probably be higher. But it is possible that Matt's stock will drop somewht between now and then from--as FG says--injury or a declining performance or even the percepion of a decline in performance or one of diminishing returns. I guess a case in point would be future HOFer and Pudge' favorite QB in the history of the NFL, Kurt Warner. His injured thumb was percieved to be a career threatener when the move was made to let him go in STL. Turns out that the team in general was sliding into the muck. Fairly or not, Kurt was designated as scapegoat for the Rams. Could happen to Matt. It just seems to me to be unneeded pre-emption.

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 Post subject: Re: and...boom goes the dynamite
PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2012 12:07 pm 
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But you guys act like the threat of injury goes away at some point. The same threat of injury that exists today would still exist two years from now when we were forced to make a move.

You're right, the price probably won't go up a huge degree 2 years from now than it is now, since all of the elite QBs (except Brees) have signed recent contract extensions. Flacco and Schaub are the biggest QB FAs next year. Cutler, Freeman, Romo, Ryan, Sanchez, and McCoy are all FAs after the 2013 season. Then the year after that, you have Kaepernick, Dalton, Tebow, Cassel, Gabbert, Stafford, Rodgers, Newton, Brady, Mallett, Locker, Ponder, and Carson Palmer. In 2016, Rivers, Vick, Eli, Bradford, and Big Ben are the FAs.

What happens if the Packers and Patriots decide to do Rodgers and Brady's deals a year early. Rodgers signed an extension in 2008, with only $20 million guaranteed. Since then, a number of lesser players have doubled that amount of money. He's going to set the market. Behind Bradford & Manning, Brady has the highest amount of guaranteed money in $49M. And while we know Ryan isn't going to match BRady, if Brady signs an extension in 2014 with $60M guaranteed, then it pushes up Ryan's deal.

Now IMO, if the Falcons were trying to re-sign Matt Ryan to a contract today, it would take a deal that had $40-45M in guaranteed money, with the likelihood it's over $42M (to exceed Stafford's rookie deal). There are 2 guys that have guaranteed money of 50+, Peyton Manning: $54.4M, Bradford: $50M. You worry about 2 years from now, there could potentially be more names.

If you can get Matt Ryan today to sign for $42 or $43M guaranteed, then I think it behooves the Falcons to make that deal today. And if you're worried about getting out of the contract, then structure the deal so that there is essentially a 2-year out clause, which is what a lot of teams have been doing. Although in the case of Peyton Manning and McNabb, they were essentially 1-yr. out clauses due to bonuses paid in Year 1.

I know our different viewpoints on this issue stem from our differing viewpoints on Matt Ryan. You guys think he's right on the verge of being an average QB. IMO, Matt Ryan is in a similar boat as Eli Manning a 3-5 years ago. He's not the greatest QB in the league, but the Giants were smart to marry themselves to Eli Manning, not necessarily because they have won 2 championships in the last 4 years, but because since Eli came into the league 7 years ago, there have only been 3 QBs come into the league that are/have been better than him. I think the same will apply to Matt Ryan. 3 years from now, we'll look back over the past 7 years of Ryan's career, and only see a handful of QBs that are better than him. Changing that horse in midstream is a bad move. It paid off for the Giants that now have 2 rings, and I think it could potentially pay off for the Falcons if the coaching staff/front office get their act together.

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 Post subject: Re: and...boom goes the dynamite
PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2012 2:36 pm 
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When I consider the minute monetary ramifications and all--which I don't so often do--I def believe in your view, Pudge, that the staff needs to make the O completely Ryan centric which they apparently are not going to do. I would do this and hold out on the contract at least one year to see what hapens. I'm of the school of thought that we did not hit gold with Matt but we did hit silver. I don't think he will be quite as good as Eli but he will be in shouting distance. Eli has the benefit of having a better org surrounding him and that comes from decades of operations with multiple SB championships scattered among them. I honestly think he will be the third best QB in the NFC South for the foreseeable future intangibles be damned but that doesn't mean he also isn;t our best foreseeable option. Yes, injuries are always going to be a risk but why expose yourself to the cost of them any earlier than you have to? This next Fall is going to tell us alot about a lot of people in the org.

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 Post subject: Re: and...boom goes the dynamite
PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2012 3:34 pm 
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once again, I feel the need to distinguish between Eli and Ryan. Eli got his contract redone in 2009, 2 years after WINNING a Championship. And what happened when he got it done and was the highest paid player that season? He got injured and sucked. Ryan is a world apart from Eli. He also has an older brother with a championship, a Father who was a good player, worked in the worst market in the league ( in terms of expectattions and criticisms). Eli had some better talent, and still had the same coach his entire tenure. That is important...

Mike Smith may not be here in a year. For that reason ALONE, I would wait one more year. It makes no sense to do this right now. Wait to redo his contract until you see one more year, and you know that the coaches will remain. It would be 'changing horses midstream'..You, I and BnB all WANT Matt Ryan to be like Eli Manning: but I would not bet on it. I think Ryan is going to be alot MORE like Archie Manning: a talented QB masking a team with flaws and questionable coaching. I also think Matt Ryan is way better then an 'average' QB. out of the 41 contending QB's ( I use that number as the 32 startes and 9 backups who I think could 'be something') I put Matt Ryan in the top 10. Definitely not top '5'. That is not average, that is 'good'.

Good is not the enemy of great, average is. :|

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 Post subject: Re: and...boom goes the dynamite
PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2012 5:14 pm 
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I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you about waiting at least another year before re-doing Ryan's deal, I'm just playing devil's advocate.

There is some sense to doing the deal now, as opposed to later. It means that the Falcons could potentially have to guarantee less money. I know the difference between $42M guaranteed vs. $50M guaranteed is somewhat negligible, but I'm just saying if you have people like Brees, Rodgers, Big Ben, etc. drive up the price of a so-called franchise QB over the next year or two, then it makes the most financial sense to do a deal now.

Along those same lines of saving money, if you re-do Ryan's deal, and say you lower his 2012 cap hit from $13M to $5M, that's $8M in savings. Now that $8M could be spent in a variety of ways. Maybe, it now means that you can get into the Mario Williams sweepstakes. Compare that to the deal Julius Peppers signed 2 years ago with the Bears, that carried a $14.6M cap hit in Year 1 of that deal.

Again, I'm not really advocating it one way or the other. Just saying that there are indeed pros and cons to doing the deal as soon as possible. Now, if the Falcons are in a situation where they do not intend to get into a bidding war for any of the top FAs this off-season such as Super Mario, Grubbs, Nicks, Finnegan, etc. then most of the pros are inconsequential. But if the Falcons are itching to make a big splash in FA, then any addition $$$ you can free up today is a good move. And that would then obvious lead to the discussion of whether all that spending being worthwhile for this team going forward.

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 Post subject: Re: and...boom goes the dynamite
PostPosted: Thu Mar 08, 2012 1:57 am 
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Cut Turner, sit Ryan and lets go to a Super Bowl with Payton Manning......The touchdowns going to Julio would be awesome!! And
it would change the way the Falcons play football. Payton can be creative; give him a 30 year contract.

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