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 Post subject: qb sneak?
PostPosted: Sun Nov 13, 2011 6:43 pm 
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Why would you have every one pulling when you need 2 inches :evil: :evil: :evil: Im so pissed right now

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 Post subject: Re: qb sneak?
PostPosted: Sun Nov 13, 2011 7:02 pm 
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I agree. If you are going to try it try a QB sneak. The refs most likely will give it to you. Why pull the ball back 4 yards and hand it off to get a couple of inches. But I also think they should have spread it out 4 wide and ran the QB sneak that way so not as many were in the box. I truly don't mind going for it there like a lot of people will though. It's a gutsy call and with time running down and New Orleans being able to score quickly I don't mind it. Just wish it would have worked.


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 Post subject: Re: qb sneak?
PostPosted: Sun Nov 13, 2011 7:03 pm 
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Here's a better question... You let Matt Ryan run the 2 minute offense and we march down the field. Then in overtime, you go back to Mularkey ball and watch the offense lay an egg. Can we fire Mularkey yet?


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 Post subject: Re: qb sneak?
PostPosted: Sun Nov 13, 2011 7:38 pm 
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Yep, bad playcall there. Everyone in the chat I was in expected a QB sneak (only needed a few inches.) We've not done great when teams actually know we're going to run right at them. Plus, I think 4th and inches should pretty much always be a QB sneak, or a fake at that and a pass (which I didn't want this time)


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 Post subject: Re: qb sneak?
PostPosted: Sun Nov 13, 2011 8:00 pm 
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I hate the QB sneak, but that's the only play call there. Smitty made the right call going for it, but presumably Mularkey made the wrong call in handing it off to Turner.

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 Post subject: Re: qb sneak?
PostPosted: Sun Nov 13, 2011 8:24 pm 
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RobertAP wrote:
Here's a better question... You let Matt Ryan run the 2 minute offense and we march down the field. Then in overtime, you go back to Mularkey ball and watch the offense lay an egg. Can we fire Mularkey yet?

Here's an even better question: Why not try the hard count to get em to jump offsides? Good call to go for it. There was no question in my mind that you had to go for it. But why do you hand it off there? It's not a 2 yard gain that's need (even though that wouldna been successful either).

Quite honestly, I wouldn't mind seeing Mularkey fired after the season. I can't believe this guy. Even at the end of the second quarter, why do you run the ball with like 17 seconds remaining in the half and no timeouts? Throw the freakin ball! I don't even understand how a run play was even an option at that point.

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 Post subject: Re: qb sneak?
PostPosted: Sun Nov 13, 2011 9:17 pm 
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Very, very rarely did I not know what was coming next. The next WR bubble screen we run should be followed immediately with the sound of a body falling from the coaches' booth.


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 Post subject: Re: qb sneak?
PostPosted: Sun Nov 13, 2011 11:07 pm 
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Confess_Jesus_Now wrote:
Even at the end of the second quarter, why do you run the ball with like 17 seconds remaining in the half and no timeouts? Throw the freakin ball! I don't even understand how a run play was even an option at that point.

Yeah, I was yelling at my TV for that one. We had VERY poor clock management at the end of the 2nd quarter.


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 Post subject: Re: qb sneak?
PostPosted: Mon Nov 14, 2011 4:25 am 
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RobertAP wrote:
Confess_Jesus_Now wrote:
Even at the end of the second quarter, why do you run the ball with like 17 seconds remaining in the half and no timeouts? Throw the freakin ball! I don't even understand how a run play was even an option at that point.

Yeah, I was yelling at my TV for that one. We had VERY poor clock management at the end of the 2nd quarter.

I resorted to just laughing.

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 Post subject: Re: qb sneak?
PostPosted: Mon Nov 14, 2011 12:47 pm 
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http://www.advancednflstats.com/2011/11 ... in-ot.html

Nov 13, 2011
The Falcons' 4th Down in OT

With 10:52 left in overtime against the Saints, the Falcons faced a 4th and inches at their own 29. Head coach Mike Smith decided to for it. Was it a smart call?

Calculating Win Probability (WP) in OT is surprisingly simple compared to regulation time. Except for the final few minutes when there is real possibility of a tie, time is not a factor and the score is always tied.

A punt would be the conventional call. A typical punt from the 29 nets 38 yards, giving the Saints a first down at their own 33, worth 0.58 WP (a 58% chance of winning). This makes intuitive sense, because teams that win the coin toss are in a similar situation and win just under 60% of the time. The Falcons would therefore have a 0.42 WP following a punt.

If the Falcons successfully convert the first down, they'd have a fresh set of downs at (at least) their own 30, good for a 0.57 WP. Notice that if they succeed the situation is nearly the symmetrical opposite of the punt. Atlanta would have the ball at slightly worse field position as New Orleans would following a punt.

If the Falcons fail to convert, they'd hand the ball over to the Saints at their own 29, a nearly fatal situation, worth only 0.18 WP. I realize this is surprisingly high, but it reflects actual overtime game results. Often, coaches will conservatively run three times into a brick wall to set up a 40-plus-yard field goal, which is far from a slam-dunk.

Conversions on 4th and 1 are typically successful 74% of the time. But this includes all 4th "and 1" situations, everything from a yard-and-a-half to go to an inch to go. For now, let's stipulate that it's 74%.

The total WP for the conversion attempt is:

0.74 * 0.57 + (1 - 0.74) * 0.18 = 0.47

The go for it option is worth, on net, a 0.47 WP. That's better than the 0.42 WP of the punt option, at least according to league-average percentages. I'm certain the fact that Drew Brees and the rest of the Saints offense is not league-average helped sway Mike Smith's mental calculus.

If you do the math the other way around, the break-even conversion probability would need to be 62% for the conversion attempt to be worthwhile. And if we don't buy the 0.18 WP following a failed conversion attempt, it would still have been worth going for it. Even If failing to convert meant an instant loss, the possibility of success would be slightly better than punting (0.74 * 0.57 WP = 0.43 WP).


Smart call. It just didn't work out. To Sean Payton's credit, he got aggressive and didn't settle for the long field goal attempt. The Saints got aggressive, moved into chip-shot range, and won the game.

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 Post subject: Re: qb sneak?
PostPosted: Mon Nov 14, 2011 12:58 pm 
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Interesting to me, that there were two earlier 4th & 1s in the first half coincidentally where the Falcons had the ball at their own 29-yard line, that Smitty opted to punt. In both instances, I thought the Falcons should have went for it.

The first was on the second series of the game in the 1st quarter, just after the Saints had just tied the ball game up 3-3. Bosher thankfully nailed a 50-yard punt, which was covered well and due to a Courtney Roby holding penalty against Antone Smith, the Saints started that drive backed up at their own 10. The Falcons D forced a 3-and-out and we began the next drive at our own 44, and wound up with a field goal to take a 6-3 lead.

So that probably worked out for the better with the punt.

The next instance was 2 series after that with 1:56 left in the 2nd quarter, Bosher punted again from our 29 and the ball went 35 yards. That was the punt that Weems got flagged for the catch interference, which started the Saints at their own 48 instead of their own 36. Thankfully the defense held once more with a 3-and-out (I believe that was thanks to Brent Grimes pass breakup that was initially called a penalty, but the refs then convened and picked up the flag). Morstead would punt and put the ball at the Falcons 1. The Falcons drove down the field of course and and Bryant missed the 41-yard FG just before the half.

Wondering if these exact same situations had significant influence on Smitty's decision to go for it in overtime.

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 Post subject: Re: qb sneak?
PostPosted: Mon Nov 14, 2011 1:33 pm 
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Agree with all the calls in overtime were dumb without the no huddle. At the point in the overtime when Smitty called that dumb play, I would have punted. Defense was playing well. But, the game was decided by no pressure on Brees.

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 Post subject: Re: qb sneak?
PostPosted: Mon Nov 14, 2011 5:04 pm 
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It gets to be so predictable with the falcon offense first play run the, 2nd pass the ball and if complete you have 3rd and long. If the Falcs don't pick up a 1st down then its time to punt the ball again.I see this over and over again so why can't Mularkey see it?

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 Post subject: Re: qb sneak?
PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2011 12:41 am 
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Qb sneak is the only call in that situation, and it should have been a fast count, with the fullback busting Ryan's back forward..... I blame
Smith because he can over rule any call...... I mean they had a time out to talk about it......Everybody involved with that call should shoulder blame..... I don't know if I've ever seen Matt Ryan not make a Qb sneak?

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 Post subject: Re: qb sneak?
PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2011 1:35 am 
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With the review, our timeout, and the Saints timeout they essentially had 3 timeouts worth to figure things out. Maybe they had sooo much time that they overthought it...
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 Post subject: Re: qb sneak?
PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2011 7:35 am 
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^Possible. I think Ryan earned his nickname Matty Ice because he keeps calm in panic situations. He is great in the two minute drills. People think he is great in the no huddle, period, but I'm not as sure about that. I mean, he's good at it but I don't think it is anyhting to write home about which is why I wonder if he shouldn't just operate at times in not only no huddle but hurry up. Maybe I've watched too much of Gus Malzahn's O here at AU where they are trying to run as many plays as possible in a game. His track record with success in the last minutes of games speaks for itself but, at the same time, whether he is running no huddle or not we seem to hit patches in every game where the O just seems to grind to a halt. And it seems to me that, more often than not, when he scans over the D and makes an obvious play change it is to a conservative hand off to MT. You never seem to see him change the play and take a shot. IOW, he sees something he doesn't like and plays it safe rather than seeing something to exploit and take a shot. Similarly, when he gets the D to jump offsides it seems like he always tries to do a quick out to a WR and it never nets anything. Free play...why not have them take off and take a shot. He definitely is not Matty Fire.

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Last edited by backnblack on Tue Nov 15, 2011 2:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: qb sneak?
PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2011 11:12 am 
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Backnblack, I'm guessing the areas that you are pointing out are a part of the scheme. It is pretty obvious that either Mularkey, or Matt Ryan is being ultra conservative. Given Mularkey's track record, I'd say the onus is on him. Again, I'm referring to his whole NFL career.


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 Post subject: Re: qb sneak?
PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2011 2:32 pm 
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I appreciate your reading through that typo laden post and ciphering some meaning from it. Middle of the night...sorry. Well, to be honest, I have not studied Mularkey's pre-Falc career or Ryan's besides in small bits but I don't recall Mularkey ever having a real firecracker QB to work with in Buffalo or Pittsburgh, did he? I've said it for a long time and have not been convinced otherwise...Matt's a game manager not a playmaker. This is not, in and of itself, criticism. His Matty Ice 2 minute routine is great but there are factors at that time of the game that are not there in other parts that make this cool headedness less valuable. Sounds stupid in a way but I've always felt like if you are so great you should not have to have dramatic comebacks all the time.

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 Post subject: Re: qb sneak?
PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2011 6:55 pm 
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I have no beef with Mularkey's play-calling in OT. In fact, I thought it was pretty solid besides the final play.

Execution was bad. 1st play, Ryan hits HD on an 8-yard comeback. Next play, Ryan overthrows HD on a deep pass. Next play, they run the little bubble screen, the ball is tipped by a defender, HD drops the low throw, although that ball is potentially not tipped if not for the low shotgun snap by McClure which prevented Ryan from getting the ball out quickly on that play. Punt.

Next series, Ryan underthrows HD on the deep play on 1st down. Then he hits Gonzo on the 9-yard comeback to set up 3rd & 1. Next play, Cox doesn't get enough depth in the flat, which causes him to reach for the first down rather than being able to get it immediately on his catch. He runs a yard or two short. That's not on Mularkey, that's on Cox. Then of course we get the non-sneak.

Re-watching this game, I see Mularkey doing some of the things I really want to see out of this offense. Spreading the field, running 4 vertical patterns, and challenging the opposing defense to try and figure out ways to matchup, by getting LBs and Ss on islands against our receivers and creating large windows for Ryan to throw into, which he does a good job done. We saw some clear out routes for Weems and Douglas underneath once Jones was out of the game, things I think they should do more often when Jones is in the game.

But I don't think the Falcons do these things enough. I get tired of seeing the deep pass play where the Falcons are in max protect and only 2 receivers run gos or deep posts, and then there's a checkdown in the flat to the TE or RB. That's not a terrible play call, given our issues up front, but I'd much rather see us putting Ryan in the shotgun, split out 4 guys, having Jones & Roddy running those go routes on the outside, and have HD & Gonzo work the middle of the field, and hopefully get those safeties to cheat up to get Jones & Roddy 1 on 1 on the outside, or if the safeties play deep, then having Gonzo & HD getting behind the linebackers in the middle.

I hate the fact that on 3rd & shorts, we are going 4 WRs, but all of them are running 4-7 yard routes and sitting. That's not really embracing the spread concept. Have somebody like Gonzo, Jones, or Roddy running a vertical route to see if he can help draw a LB or S away from one of those underneath receivers, who should be running a slant, drag, or cross so that if he can get a step or break a tackle can get YAC.

And it's why I don't think Mularkey is a terrible OC. I just think he's lacking. We run good plays from time to time but I don't think we run them enough.

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 Post subject: Re: qb sneak?
PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2011 6:57 pm 
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I also think Ryan has the potential to be better in no huddle, but I think you have to be more willing to put the onus on him to check at the line of scrimmage, make pre-snap reads, and then let him signal to receivers what adjustments he wants them to make to their routes based off those pre-snap reads. This I think is the basis of Indianapolis' offense with Peyton Manning, and I think the Falcons could do more to incorporate that into their own offense when they go to no huddle earlier in games.

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 Post subject: Re: qb sneak?
PostPosted: Wed Nov 16, 2011 9:27 am 
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Nice posts, Pudgeski. I think the majority of our problems are with OL the more I think about it. "Keeping Matt clean" was the mantra after the first couple of weeks and thye have done that but at a cost of running a lot of maximum protection and, thus, limiting the number of WRs going out. It's not unusual at all to see us with three TEs in the game and I suspect this is why. Maybe in all the calculations in volving draft strategy and so forth the OL struggling so much was not foreseen. I didn't really like or understand the JJ move and thought it was aclear departure from the Process and th enotion of Smith's that the "most important players are the ones closest to the ball." But what do I know? I didn't like drafting Ryan and my brilliant supposition was Dorsey and Henne. The closest to the ball thing has largely been adhered to with Jerry, Johnson, Hawley, Peters, etc., but the results of the inexact science have been mixed. Matt must have been doing the old mortar shot thing with his passes to HD in OT--one long, one short...he just needed one more shot to hit the target! :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: qb sneak?
PostPosted: Wed Nov 16, 2011 4:19 pm 
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Well, that's been a general criticism of the front office from me for a few years. I have known that our offensive line isn't that great. I half-expected that this year would be the year that we address it. Drafting in the latter part of the 1st round is a good place to draft quality linemen. But again, we mortgaged the farm for JJ. I will again ask an obvious question... Does Mularkey have any say in draft-day decisions? If so, he should have made the case that our offensive line needs help more than we need another WR.


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 Post subject: Re: qb sneak?
PostPosted: Wed Nov 16, 2011 4:37 pm 
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backnblack wrote:
Maybe in all the calculations in volving draft strategy and so forth the OL struggling so much was not foreseen.

I think a lot of our issues have stemmed from that, the front office/coaching staff overestimating the talent level of their current roster. I think without that, they don't make the Julio Jones trade, at least that's what I got from the Michael Holley book. It talks about how the "Patriot Way" was about hoarding draft picks, but TD thought that the Falcons were at a point in their development, where they no longer needed to do that, and thus he was willing to "give away" those picks to get a big-time playmaker like Julio Jones.

RobertAP wrote:
Does Mularkey have any say in draft-day decisions? If so, he should have made the case that our offensive line needs help more than we need another WR.

I think you're grabbing at straws now with your criticism for Mularkey. Of course he has say in the draft process, just like all the scouts and assistant coaches. But that doesn't mean his or any of their input always makes a difference. Getting mad at him for not championing the O-line is a huge stretch. And while I generally agree with you that the Falcons should move on from Mularkey after this season, I'm not going to draw links from him to every problem that plagues this team.

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 Post subject: Re: qb sneak?
PostPosted: Wed Nov 16, 2011 10:17 pm 
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Pudge wrote:
I think you're grabbing at straws now with your criticism for Mularkey. Of course he has say in the draft process, just like all the scouts and assistant coaches. But that doesn't mean his or any of their input always makes a difference. Getting mad at him for not championing the O-line is a huge stretch. And while I generally agree with you that the Falcons should move on from Mularkey after this season, I'm not going to draw links from him to every problem that plagues this team.

I'm simply saying that if for the past 2 years he has had to mask the deficiency of the offensive line by running the ball and drawing up short routes, that he should have been whining to TD that we need to address the offensive line.


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 Post subject: Re: qb sneak?
PostPosted: Thu Nov 17, 2011 11:40 am 
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backnblack wrote:
...Matt's a game manager not a playmaker.

I beg to differ. Sunday, the guy marched us down the field after starting from our own 1 yard line and actually hit Roddy in the hands for what would have been the game winner, but it was dropped. In fact, this season alone, if Roddy and other receivers focus and just catch the pass, we're sitting here talking about a 7-2 team.

Take a look at the Bears game 3 years ago. We all remember the throw and catch that set up the game winning field goal.

And even though it was flawwed, the 49ers game last year.


While he does have some flaws and kinks in his game that need to be worked out, this guy makes plays. No one can argue against that. He's much more than just a game manager.

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