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If Vick signs a plea agreement identical to Q's he will face a lifetime ban from the NFL on grounds of gambling. Right there on page 1 Q signed a submission of facts admitting to gambling.

I am positive that's the sticking point right now in plea negotiations between Vick's lawyers and the government.

If Vick signs a plea deal with the gambling charge removed Goodell would not have grounds to suspend him on the basis of gambling as Vick would not have admitted to gambling and it would not have been proven in a court of law.

Vick is really in no position to barter anything right now. I think the government has their "big fish" and that is that. The only reason they don't want it to go to trial is to possibly save the money and time....and they won't fold their cards for anything else other than a FULL admission of guilt. They aren't concerned with Vicks future in the NFL.

Vick is sitting there wondering how it got to this level, and the GOVT wants names...but Vick may be just as clueless as the rest of his gang. He truely may not have any names of any credence to give them. He was just "fightin dem Dawgs man".

a conviction by jury is not 100% guaranteed.

there are a number of factors that are in Vick's favor when facing a jury trial.

people will feel empathy towards Vick due to not only color, but also he's a local hero. this trial is in his backyard.

he's hired an OJ type dream team to represent him.

the witnesses against him are the dregs of society.

I think the government would like to put this thing behind them.

It is as close to 100% as any trial you will ever see. The lawyers hired by him have already made crucial errors in their defense, this isn't OJ. The trial is never going to happen.

Unless they have some type of evidence other than the word of co-defendants and others, he would certainly have a chance of prevailing at trial. The main reason he would not take that chance is that in our justice system, you generally get punished for invoking your right to a trial.

I could have a chance at winning the lotto as well. Of course there is always a chance, but i think if you read the indictment it is clear that the GOVT has more than enough evidence at hand to get a conviction.

I absolutely agree...I think Vick would be wise to plea if he wants any chance at a life other than one spent behind bars for a long, long time.

If Vick takes this plea that means That he is a liar and is guilty. HE HAS TO FIGHT THIS TO THE END. I will not defend this man or want him on the falcons if he takes this plea.

it's just a matter of details at this time.

There's no doubt that the feds have collected enough evidence to get a conviction. But that doesn't mean it's a certainty. There's still a 10-20% chance Vick will be acquitted, based on federal conviction rates.

Clearly when looking at it from the gov's POV, it looks like a conviction is a certainty (or else the gov doesn't indict). But we cannot sit here and pretend that all the facts presented in the indictment documents are the only set of facts that exist in this case.

Still hoping eh Pudge...Got to give it to you....makes me think of an old Tammy Wynette Song.

I'm far from a "squeezer" BB, but I don't see it is a bad thing if the possibility is open that Vick returns to the Falcons.

Unless Blank's Buffalo's go on a deadly rampage wiping out his whole family it just isn't going to happen.

Dang Feds aren't good at anything else - I dunno why they are so good at conviction rates.

Well the conviction rates, and the pile of evidence including the friends who turned against him sealed the deal. As i said ...it would have been foolish to go to trial.

Language crucial to Vick's plea revealed:

"I'm guilty."

watch.

I guarantee the plea agreement does not mention gambling.

No way Vick's lawyers would allow gambling charges in the plea. I'd be willing to bet most of the gambling charges would have fallen under the RICO charges to be heard by the Grand Jury today.

If no gambling is included then Vick has a chance to come back to the NFL after doing his time. If his lawyers managed to get 12 to 18 months and no gambling charges they earned their money becuase that will probably save Vick's career in the long run.

Agreed...the NFL may want to make an example of MV..and if they do "gambling" is a tenuous hook.

I guarrantee the NFL has paid for some polling in the African American communities. If 80% of Af.Ams are sympathetic with MV...the NFL has to be carefull from a business standpoint. I think that is the best thing MV has going for him now - other than a clean previous record.

Still don't get it do you. This isn't about Vick having any bargaining due to his race. He was in no position to bargain about anything. Gambling was part of the indictment and it will be part of the plea. The degree of the gambling however will be the determining factor as to what the Commish does or doesn't do. There is more than enough evidence to suggest that Vick gambled on the result of the illegal dogfighting.There is however no evidence to suggest he gambled on games, at least not yet. African Americans will still watch the NFL long after this is over with. There is no major outcry, other than the normal percentage of people who are going to be pissed anyway.

damn.

I called that one.

Don't get so high on yourself yet. Even if the FEDS go along with a restructured plea, the judge can have it his way and throw it out. Just because Vick wants something it doesn't mean it's going to happen. This Judge is a different breed. The FEDS may be thinking....cool..we will give you the reduced charges, knowing full well the Judge won't accept it...just to save face themselves.

.... and got it wrong. He admits to gambling and dog killing.

http://www.wsbtv.com/download/2007/0824/13967720.pdf