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ALLEN BAILEY
6-3/278
Miami FL Senior
40: 4.75 (estimated)
PROS:
Solid athlete that shows good movement and skills when working in space. Has the burst to close in pursuit and make plays on the backside. Flashes potential as a bull rusher. Shows nice straight-line burst upfield. Has good strength and occasionally will dominate undersized blockers inside. Also has the strength to anchor at times vs. the run. Will get his hands up to bat down passes.
CONS:
Doesn't play with great awareness or fire. Has limited technique and lacks any good moves when working on the outside. Tries to run around blocks at times. Doesn't have the burst or speed to consistently challenge the corner. Struggles getting off blocks and gets redirected too easily at the point of attack. Struggles at times to beat the tight end, and will get pushed back off the snap. Is late reacting to the snap, which limits his ability to get leverage vs. the run. Doesn't play with great recognition and will lose outside contain.
OVERVIEW:
Bailey is a physical mismatch at times, but did not have as strong a senior year as hoped for after flashing signs and potential as a junior. His production was about the same with 11 tackles for loss and 7 sacks in both years. He just isn't a consistent playmaker and is a bit of a tweener. He predominantly played DE for Miami, but also played a lot at DT on passing downs. Hails from Sapelo, GA. Had a stress fracture in his back as a senior in high school.
NFL FORECAST:
Bailey is a talented player that you see flashes of his potential. But I saw more in his junior year than as a senior, and the progress that should have been made just didn't seem apparent. He's still a guy that is low on consistent, technique, and the lack of file also doesn't help his cause. He was a bit of a tweener at Miami, playing at around 285, but now that he's slimmed down somewhat it seems like he's poised to play defensive end in the pros. I think going forward, he may be a better fit in a 3-4 scheme at end, although he needs to be a much better player vs. the run to really impact there. But despite the superior athleticism, he doesn't have the burst or upfield speed to really consistently challenge the edge for a 4-3 end. I think he can be a nice left end in that scheme and potentially move inside on third downs, but I don't think he's the caliber of edge rusher that scheme typically prefers. Instead he's more of the straight-line pass rusher that will have his shortcomings less exposed in a 3-4 scheme. But he's probably 15-20 pounds away from his ideal weight in that scheme. But regardless of the scheme, I think he's a guy that is going to be a long-term project for a team. He's a boom/bust prospect that I see if he can get coached up, a team lights a fire under him, he can be a very good starter in the league because his athletic skills make him a tough matchup for any offensive linemen, whether guard or tackle. But I'd bet that is at least three or four years away, and it would not surprise me at all if his NFL career is similar to that of Jamaal Anderson. In that he really struggles to make any impact his first two or three years, and then in his fourth year he begins to emerge as a solid role player and rotational guy. If he can develop his bull rush and technique more, then I think ultimately he can be a 3-5 sack guy on the outside, but probably won't ever be a dynamic pass rusher. As far as defending the run, he has the potential to get good there due to his size and strength to hold the point of attack, but he needs work there. But I think he has less work to do to get better there than he does as a pass rusher. Five years from now he could be a good starting left end in either a 3-4 or 4-3 scheme, or he could be a backup on his way out of the league. Ultimately he's the type of player that I would compare to guys like Jamaal Anderson, Marcus Spears, and Vernon Gholston, who were athletic specimens, but lacked the fire to really excel early in their careers. Anderson and Spears have since developed into nice role players, and Gholston may too down the road, but that isn't a group of players known for living up to expectations in the pros, and I think with Bailey there should be a similar buyer's beware.
ATL FORECAST:
Bailey could be a nice rotational option for the Falcons with potential to develop down the road into a starter. But he really doesn't bring anything to the table that Anderson doesn't already bring besides the hope that he is a better pass rusher. But as far as his development goes, he's not going to contribute on the same level early on that Anderson does now. So while three or four years down the road he could be a nice replacement, he's more than likely going to be an underachiever and marginal situational player his first two or so years.
VALUE:
Bailey is a player that would be a reach in the first round. He's a second round talent that I would proably target in the latter half of that round. But because of him having probably a bit longer of a length to impact and the strong possibility he turns out to be a Gholston-like bust early on, I would only feel good about drafting him in the third.
SKILLS:
1-poor, 2-weak, 3-above average, 4-very good, 5-elite
Strength: 4.0
Quickness: 3.0
Pass Rush: 2.5
Point of Attack: 3.0
Recognition: 2.0
Motor: 2.0
_________________
"Vincere scis, Hannibal, victoria uti nescis" -- Maharbal, 216 B.C.E.
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