new look at drafting a kicker

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VTCDTSYLR
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new look at drafting a kicker

Postby VTCDTSYLR » Sat Mar 05, 2005 4:57 pm

I hate the idea but I think its time to take another look at drafting a kicker. We signed Todd Peterson from the previously viewed bin and seem intent to let Feely go. Does this give any one else the idea that we are gonna take a kicker in the draft. I mean really is Peterson who they think is gonna win us those three point games? Next question is how do we go about getting the kicker? Personaly I hope they do like they did last year to get Jenkins. They don't use our earned picks, they wait until the time is right based on availability and interest of other teams, then trade into a spot and get the man they want. Oh yeah just saw we are keeping Rossum, he better play dime or nickel.

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Postby Capologist » Sun Mar 06, 2005 10:46 am

I'd like to see us give Damon Duval another crack at it....

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Postby Pudge » Tue Mar 08, 2005 10:56 am

Peterson is a guy that might be just as good as Feely, or maybe slightly better. He did have the best years of his career in Seattle a few years back when he was kicking indoors at the King Dome.

But he's a guy that has little leg strength, so the complaint of Feely's inability to kick from beyond 50 yards, is probably going to be the same with Peterson. Plus Peterson is abysmal on kickoffs.

As far as going after a kicker in the draft, it's a possibility. But with a guy like Nugent, he's most likely going to go somewhere between picks #50 and #75. The Falcons only hold a single pick in that area, and it's #59.

What I think is more likely to happen is the Falcons looking at a kicker in Round 6 or 7. Tyler Jones (LSU) is widely viewed as this year's #2 kicker, and will probably go higher than he should because of Nugent. Usually, when a kicker is drafted high (on first day), it makes whomever the #2 guy go higher by a round or two. So Jones may not even be available in Round 6.

But I think unless the Falcons really like a young kicker coming out, they shouldn't force the issue. I do think losing Feely makes the team a little more likely to take a kicker, but considering our other needs on offense and defense, I don't think McKay is going to force a move. Peterson is serviceable. The one thing we need to be looking for is someone that can kick off.

I think the Falcons best option may be to sign K Wade Richey in free agency. He's a good kick off guy and probably has the best chance to takign away Peterson's job.
"Vincere scis, Hannibal, victoria uti nescis" -- Maharbal, 216 B.C.E.

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Postby Pudge » Tue Mar 15, 2005 1:02 am

Interesting insights from my Huddle Report colleague, Drew Boylhart:

Drew wrote: Drafting a kicker is like going to Vegas. You will lose many more times then you will win and when you do win, it is just enough to make you gamble some more.


I did some statistical research on how well kickers perform over their first 3 years over recent drafts and years. I looked at years 1997 through 2002, and compared drafted kickers with some of the current undrafted kickers from that time as well.

During that span, there were 13 kickers drafted. Of them, only 6 managed to play in 30 or more games in their first three seasons. I found 9 active kickers from that time period that were undrafted and played in 30 or more games.

Among the six drafted, 5 of them connected on at least 75% of their field goals over their first three years. Comparatively, 7 of the 9 undrafted guys accomplished the same feat.

Interestingly, only 2 of the 6 drafted kickers have managed to play in at least 16 games since and connected on 75% of their field goals. While 6 of the 9 undrafted guys have accomplished that feat.

5 of 9 undrafted guys are career 80% field goal kickers, while only 1 of the 13 drafted guys.

I figured just based on a rough estimate of how many undrafted kickers were in the league last summer (about 8), I figured between 1997 and 2002 there were about 50 undrafted guys in that time period.

So based upon that estimate, you have about a 10% chance of picking up a 80% field goal kicker in the undrafted market, while its about 7.7% chance drafting a guy.

To make a long story short, I think it's just statistics that tend to point to the argument that you are no more likely to get a quality kicker in the draft or undrafted free agency. And that's why I don't believe in drafting a kicker, unless he is truly special, is really not worth the effort. You're better off just using the pick on a position where at least if the player doesn't work out, you can use him on special teams or something.

Kaeding to me was a special kicker. Sebastian Janikowski was as well. Nugent, I'm not so sure of.
"Vincere scis, Hannibal, victoria uti nescis" -- Maharbal, 216 B.C.E.

thescout33

Interesting stats not so sure why Nugent did terrible

Postby thescout33 » Tue Mar 15, 2005 2:36 am

Those certainly are interesting stats Pudge.You have almost convinced me not to draft a kicker.Only one circumstance as you mentioned if he is truly special do you draft one.Nugent did not do well kicking the ball I believe past the 40yd line in the Indy camp.I would still hold a tryout date for the guy to see if it was just a bad day or he is special.Wonder when the ohio state tryout day is?


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