Pudge wrote:
Whose estimates?
http://bloggingthebeast.com/2013/01/27/2013-nfl-compensatory-pick-projections/ 2013 NFL Compensatory Pick Projections
Jan 27th, 2013 by Jimmy Kempski.
(Note by the editor: This research was conducted by Blogging the bEast’s official Compensatory Pick Expert, “ct17.” C.T. did this for Blogging the bEast last year as well, and despite the difficulties of working with incomplete data as a result of the lockout shortened 2011 offseason, C.T. was very accurate. This year, the data at his disposal was more complete, so it is likely that he’ll be just as accurate or even more so this time around. Take it away, C.T.)…
As a disclaimer, I claim no credit for the basis behind this work, as I did nothing original. I merely used AdamJT13’s posted guidelines as best as I could. You can find his work at adamjt13.blogspot.com. You can also follow him on Twitter here. If you are unfamiliar with his work, the basics that affect comp picks are:
1. Players that are cut or not tendered as RFAs and ERFAs are not counted.
2. Players earning low minimum salaries do not count.
3. Each player signed cancels out one player lost.
4. The round of the pick awarded is primarily determined by the annual value of the contract signed. Signed players cancel out lost players with equal contracts, then lower contracts, before canceling out higher contracts.
It should be noted that although the NFL makes public the basic rules above, even the NFL teams do not know the exact picks that they will be awarded. They have to make assumption based upon past history, just as I have done.
Here are the projections. We’ll show the work behind the projections after the jump:
Falcons 4 Curtis Lofton
Falcons 7 Eric Weems
Falcons 7 James Sanders
Falcons 7 Kelvin Hayden
Last year with the shortened offseason a lot of contracts went unreported. This year I only had that problem once. Last year we also saw a new stricter standard to get a 3rd round pick.
I awarded 30 normal comp picks. Last year the cutoff for considering players eligible was in the $800k-$900k range. I counted several players that received 1-year contracts for $890k, but not Barry Richardson, who received a 1-year deal for $800k. He ended up starting for St. Louis, so he may be counted, which would give Kansas City a 6th round pick (see below, for Orton, Quinn would then cancel out Richardson). This is the tricky area because the location of the cutoff line could affect multiple picks. Tennessee, Atlanta, and San Francisco could lose 7th round picks, and Houston and the Giants could gain 6th round picks if particular older players making the veteran minimum are not counted.
Injured Reserve status may also affect some of these picks. AdamJT13 was unable to explain why some IR players counted and some did not. Here I did not count players on 1-year deals placed on IR before the start of the season, since logically these players could have been cut, eliminating them from comp pick consideration. There were 4 players in this category, but they only affected 2 picks, potentially eliminating Miami’s 4th and the Giants’ 6th. I counted players on IR that received 2-year deals, because the signing team just has a delayed benefit from the player. If they are not counted, Cincinnati would gain a 7th round pick. Players placed on IR during the season were counted, but this had no effect on the results.
The draft order was formed based upon contract amount and playing time. AdamJT13 has a playing time equation, but I am just guessing here. There are also unknown variables, as I still cannot explain Clint Session’s drop last year. Baltimore reached the maximum of 4 comp picks, otherwise I would have given them an additional 7th round pick for losing Brandon McKinney (IR player on 2-year deal). The Giants’ granted pick could increase to a 5th for Aaron Ross, as he has a contract loaded with incentives which are unknown. Seattle signed Matt Flynn to a deal with a lot of unknown numbers as well, so Green Bay’s comp pick could jump to a 3rd.
I awarded 0 net value picks (value difference between players lost and signed). Last year Atlanta received a net value pick that I could not explain, unless there is special consideration given to signing a player for a veteran minimum. Since 32 comp picks must be awarded, that leaves 2 additional picks at the end, which follows the order that would be used if there were an eighth round.
Here are explanations of the players lost/signed for each team I’m projecting to receive a compensatory pick. I did not explain teams that did not get comp picks to save time, although I included Indianapolis, Denver, and New Orleans. If you want an explanation or additional information for any of the 32 teams, please feel free to request an explanation in the comment section:
Team Players lost Players signed
Falcons Lofton (5 yr $27.5 million) None
Weems (3 yr $4.2 million)
James Sanders (1 yr $910,000)
Hayden (1 yr $890,000)
