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 Post subject: Kawan Short your thoughts and falcs 1st rounder
PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2013 1:06 pm 
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Pudge whats your opinon on Kawan Short from Purdue. Looks like a solid prospect and the falcs do need another def tackle. I like him or Alexx Okafor someone you don't particularly like for our 1st. I'd stay with linemen in the first 3 rounds if things break right and solid prospects are available. . I'd pass on tight end and sign on in free agency.

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 Post subject: Re: Kawan Short your thoughts and falcs 1st rounder
PostPosted: Sat Feb 09, 2013 8:38 am 
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It all comes down to value. Getting a guy that is going to be a perennial Pro Bowler in Round 1. Maybe Short is that guy, but from what little I've seen of him the past 2 years, probably not.

If Bernard or Eifert are on the board, while they will be less than ideal picks for many, they are at least perennial Pro Bowl talent potentially.

As for Short or any other D-linemen, I need to see versatility and pass rush potential with them IMO to like them as 1st round picks for the Falcons. For interior guys, I think the key is having guys that will line up in a variety of techniques and still be effective. For edge guys, they need to be able to drop as well. There are plenty of good pass rushers in this draft. To merit being the Falcons top pick in the draft, you need to have the potential to be great. Does Short have that? I'm not sure. I'll have to watch tape. Does Okafor have that? I don't really think so. From what I've seen, he's a good bull rusher that I think could make a nice quality 4-3 LDE that can give you 6-8 sacks every year. But you could probably also find that exact same player in the 2nd or 3rd round as well.

When you look at D-linemen that have not been Top 20 picks over the past decade, besides Wilfork, there isn't a lot of success with them. You can't sit there and say that because it's rarely happened means it won't be different this year, but it is something that is worth paying attention to.

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 Post subject: Re: Kawan Short your thoughts and falcs 1st rounder
PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 12:01 am 
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I agree with your view Pudge that drafting value should take priority over filling a need. I guess it depends on how players like Short and Okafor rank within the Falcons big board. If its close vs other position players then you go ahead and draft not only for need but value at the same time. Unfortunately TD seems to get to caught up in feeling needs which is why alot of the 3rd-5th rounders don't pan out since TD overdrafts players. Drafting players in the 3rd round when they are 5th rounders isn't good drafting. Other teams find gems yet the Falcons seem to shoot blanks.

It's critical TD changes his strategy since catching more talented teams like the 49ers will be difficult or other top caliber teams.

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 Post subject: Re: Kawan Short your thoughts and falcs 1st rounder
PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 8:45 pm 
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I think the problem is that too often the Falcons have considered more need than value. IMHO, the Holmes and Ewing picks last year are perfect illustrations of this.

From looking at TD's drafting over the years, the MO seems pretty clear:

In Rounds 1 & 2, he's going to draft guys that are going to either compete for or take over starting positions immediately. Konz & Moore are the only 2 drafted in those rounds that didn't start Day 1. Moore was because he got hurt in camp, and Konz was very, very close to taking the job from Reynolds. And I think they gave it to Reynolds as a reward for his improvement (which proved to be legit) and the fact that he was in a contract year, and maybe because Konz needed a bit more time to adapt to playing guard.

Generally speaking I think we get pretty good value there. The Baker pick was a reach, but that was understandable because he wasn't going to last until the early 2nd when we drafted him. The Jerry pick was a reach because there weren't any other good DTs in this class, and 2nd round talent (like Hood & Jerry) got pushed up in the draft due to the dearth of talent there. That happens a lot.

It's in ROunds 3 that his drafting starts to trouble me. Because IMO he's targeting specific positions.

In the case of HOlmes, I think it boiled down to the Falcons really wanted to draft an insurance policy at LT (rightly so). And after Round 2, Holmes was probably the only guy that they really liked. And in not having a 4th round pick, they figured we need to get him now, as opposed to risk waiting.

Similar with Ewing. In Round 4, when Evan Rodriguez and Rhett Ellison went off the board (both H-back/FBs), I think the Falcons were of the mindset that they were going to take a FB regardless. And so they took Ewing with their next pick to make sure they got "their" guy.

I understand that because the draft is very fluid and unpredictable and you have to be very flexibile with your plans.

THe problem arises when the guys you are drafting aren't that good. I think Holmes has upside, but the problem is that as a 3rd round pick you're going to have higher expectations than he probably should. And in his case, you may see the Falcons let Baker walk this off-season and thrust Holmes into the starting lineup. If he was a 5th round (IMO as he should have been), then that situation would probably never arise.

And with Ewing, it comes from the position he plays. Nowadays, the traditional FB is a dying position. Most teams are putting former RBs, WRs, TEs, and DEs there and getting very good returns on that. If I thought Ewing was the next Vonta Leach/Ovie, then it would be different. But IMO, hes probably just the next Dan Kreider. He was the top fullback in his class, but he came out in a year that lacked great fullbacks. Had he come out a year before, he probably would have been the 4th or 5th best FB. YOu had undrafted guys (e.g. Henry Hynoski) that IMO are as good if not better from that 2011 class than Ewing.

Bosher was the same way. They "needed" a punter that could kick off and basically drafted Bosher a round early to ensure they got him. Hawley was the same in 2010.

This is the primary reason why their picks from the 3rd round on have been less than stellar the past few years.

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