I'm basing this more on how well a player is going to end up based on their draft position.
I think Cutler is going to be a Top 10 pick and won't have the sort of success consistent with Top 10 QBs. WIll he go the way of Joey Harrington or Kyle Boller, it's very hard to say. BUt will he be a steady Pro Bowl caliber player? I don't think so. He'll probably be somewhere in between like a Brian Griese caliber guy that is capabel of getting you to the playoffs, but most of that is dependent on his supporting cast.
As for Williams, I'll take him off the list if his playing weight is under 290 pounds. But I'm hearing a lot of talk that he is continuing to bulk up. I think GM Charley Casserly (Texans) was talking about him being over 300 pounds if he played for them. He's never going to be the type of pass rusher at that playing weight. IMO, if you want to be an edge pass rusher capable of racking up 10 or more sacks in a year, you have to be 285 or less. If you're going to be anymore, you better start working on your pass rush techniques, cuz you're going to play DT.
I'd be willing to take Ngata off the list if he were to go to a 3-4 team like Cleveland, because you don't have to be special to be an effective nose tackle for a 3-4 team. But I don't see him being a dominant presence in this league.
Cromartie and Joseph both lack experience, and I don't think they will contribute as early as their respective teams hope. Maybe 4 or 5 years down the road, they'll be capable starters, but when was the last time any 1st round pick that wasn't a QB was given 4-5 years to develop before being cut or traded?
"Vincere scis, Hannibal, victoria uti nescis" -- Maharbal, 216 B.C.E.