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 Post subject: CFB Conference Expansion back again
PostPosted: Fri Aug 12, 2011 7:32 pm 
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http://outkickthecoverage.com/sec-expan ... states.php

Conference expansion heating up again... :down:

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 Post subject: Re: CFB Conference Expansion back again
PostPosted: Fri Aug 12, 2011 8:21 pm 
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There is much to discuss...

It seems inevitable that 10 years from now there will be at least 3 Division I subdivisions in football. All of this talk of expansion is only the tip of the iceberg. It's clear that the schools/programs that can make big money on football will eventually split from the rest of Division I. That has a lot of other issues that come with it (such as the end of amateurism in college sports perhaps?), but I'll save that discussion for a rainy day...

1. Tech joining the SEC? Not a great move for them. I really think Clemson would be the best choice for the SEC. I know the article stated they don't want another school in a state they already represent, but let's not pretend like USC has the state of South Carolina on lockdown by any means. Clemson is probably the most SEC-like of any of the ACC schools, IMO.

For Tech, joining the SEC is like breaking down the levies for the state of Virginia, and while the other 11 (or 12) members of the SEC would love that, I think it hurts Tech's program a lot. It would be nice for Tech to be able to make more in-roads into states like Georgia, Alabama, etc. which we've talked about before as what they need to get back to where they were 10 years ago as a veritable national power. But if you join the SEC, that means schools like Georgia, Alabama, FLorida, etc. now have greater access to Virginia players as well. That monopoly potentially ends.

2. Duke? I would love to see that just for the annual Duke-Vanderbilt game. It would be like the toilet bowl of Division I football.

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 Post subject: Re: CFB Conference Expansion back again
PostPosted: Sun Aug 14, 2011 1:32 am 
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I've been on the fence about it frankly. Two schools of thought, one I agree tech in the sec does probably knock down whatever stronghold they have on va. On the other hand, Fla got Harvin and Bama got Sims, so they know when VA has a good one and when to come cherry pick. I would like to think the tech in the sec would elevate their recruiting, let shane beamer whose been at miss st, tenn and south carolina get back down there and pull some more sec southeast 4 and 5 stars. He already just got a GA 4 star DE recently since he came back from usc. Buuuuut, the downside is the actual games. We go from the catbird acc seat to the murders row sec. One side of their conference could rival a max acc in vt, fsu and miami. I think we could hold our own just fine, but the domination and 10 win season deal we've come to almost expect, would be over.

The problem if we don't go is do we want to stay in an even weaker more watered down acc? I don't. If FSU and CU leave, we'd prob have to go grab a Pitt and UConn. Then Maryland bolts for the Big 10 as the dominos fall, then the acc has to go get either wvu or syracuse, or even rutgers. Then who else does the big 10 add? The sec, the pac whatever? What is THE number for these megaconf's? Thats the question. And like I said a long time ago, this was inevitable. One, the schools are sick of the ncaa, and are tired of sharing their money when they can form these confs and do it themselves (and keep more money). The other domino is Texas, and that blasted TV network they are dying for. They almost started armaggedon last year on the pac whatever headfake. Now, TexasAM is super ticked, as having an equally ravenous fanbase, doesn't like UT pulling the strings. So TAM wants to go to the SEC, take their ball and go elsewhere. Then its been rumored FSU has been talking to the SEc for months. That USC doesn't want CU in, being in the same state.

With VT, the word is they've already said no. They cherish the academic nature of the acc, and don't want to be the school to rip apart the acc. True or not i can't be sure. Either way this is inevitable. Its gonna get down to whose most proactive. The acc has a blueblood in john swofford, and he's a terrible unc lacky. Asleep at the wheel mostlikely. The SEC is already being proactive, which means the big 10 will jump. And you already know the pac will go full press. I just hate for all the old rivalries to die, b/c you can't play everyone in that big of a conf. Plus I worry about how and where vt falls in the new landscape.

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 Post subject: Re: CFB Conference Expansion back again
PostPosted: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:51 am 
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We'll see. I see it more as talk at this point more than anything. Those tv deals that the ACC and Pac 12 signed with ESPN for another 10 years, so is really a lot going to happen between now and then? Is any of these 12-team conferences going to add 2 or 4 more teams between now and then when they don't have to?

Take for instance the Pac-12. What's the incentive of going to 14 teams, if you're current 12 members are all going to get $20 million just from the television deal? You expand, and doesn't that eat into that money?

If you're keeping up with the Joneses, I guess that makes sense. If the SEC goes to 14, then that will prompt the others to go to 14. But why would the SEC go to 14? I mean obviosuly, I know why. But there doesn't seem to be the imperative that they need to expand in the next few years in order to survive.

The more concerning thing is what happens to the Big 12 and Big East that are struggling to stay afloat in this new 12-team conference model.

I guess what will prompt the further expansion of the 12-team conferences I guess is if one of those conferences fails in the near future. I think the Big East probably won't exist in 10 years, but I think it'll hang on for a while because of its basketball play. i don't know enough about where the Big 12 stands right now. But I imagine they aren't going to go under in the next year or two.

I think it's about posturing and leverage more than these schools actually wanting to change conferences.

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 Post subject: Re: CFB Conference Expansion back again
PostPosted: Sun Aug 14, 2011 10:02 pm 
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I think the bottom line up until now was a big game of chicken, in that who would be the first to tip a bunch of dominos. Technically the acc did that back in 04 w/ vt, miami and bc. But this is different to me, in that the move at that time was to get to 12 for a football title game. You couldn't have one w/o 12 teams. Now, its mainly over tv money. I agree, I don't think the teams just want to realign or move just of a whim. But what gets lost in all this is any school, whether its ivy league or low level, have to make these decisions for academic reasons. Sports cannot technically be the driver, but you see how lost in the sauce all this gets over time. I do think its plenty realistic to happen at some point, and just read below on the tv money angle you mentioned. Cause it is ALL about the tv money.

Read this, complicated but explains everything to me that probably is going on right now.

http://outkickthecoverage.com/how-espn- ... c-deal.php

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 Post subject: Re: CFB Conference Expansion back again
PostPosted: Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:13 am 
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So if I'm reading that report correctly, it's all a race between Bob Iger and Rupert Murdoch to control college football in this country? ESPN vs. FOX.

If I'm not mistaken FOX and ESPN share TV deals with the Pac-12 and Big 12, and ESPN & CBS control the SEC, ESPN the ACC and Big East, and FOX the Big 10 Network, and poor widdle NBC is still holding firm with Notre Dame. Whoever gets the winning bid for the BCS in 2014 is going to control the world. And I'm betting it's ESPN, and somehow it's the shot across the bow that eventually leads to a lucrative playoff system.

I do think it's inevitable that the super conferences come. I just don't expect them to be immediately looming on the horizon. I think we'll be safe at least for the next 3 years until that new TV contract comes strolling by in 2014.

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 Post subject: Re: CFB Conference Expansion back again
PostPosted: Wed Aug 17, 2011 3:50 pm 
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To me that article basically said that ESPN is the lynchpin to the whole deal. By helping the SEC get bigger on one hand, results is hurting their Big12 TV contract on the other hand. Plus the Big12 contract states they need at least 10 teams, and they're in danger of falling below that number. Really espn is stuck, they can't be caught helping the sec woo t.a.m., cause they'd be screwing the rest of the big12. Yet at some point the Big12 is probably a dinosaur, maybe the big east two. ESPN needs to tread lightly b/c the big12 could sue easily over not honoring the tv contract w/ them. Any contract has a good faith clause, meaning since you entered into the contract, you must behave in good faith. They're stuck. No telling what Fox will do, but they're involved too.

I think the only reason TAM didn't happen now is the SEC is still looking for #14 to pair for the move. Every conversation I hear funnels into the Hokies, as Fla doesn't want FSU and USC doesn't want CU for instate/rivalry/recruiting reasons. But at this point I highly doubt VT would leave, the ACC has been great for us across board (minus some more competition to improve the league overall. Hoops is relevant, and wasn't at all in the old big east).

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