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 Post subject: Draft Strategy: Trading up
PostPosted: Tue Feb 15, 2005 4:54 am 
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Joined: Thu Dec 23, 2004 3:03 pm
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Location: North Carolina
I know its two words that Falcon fans rarely use and seemingly loathe to hear. Trading up just doesn't sit well with most people because it usually involves giving up future picks.

But I think it should always be seen as a viable option, especially if you have a very highly touted player slip. Although it didn't work out for them, the Bucs made the right move from a strategy standpoint in trading up for Kenyatta Walker. If you have a guy ranked in the Top 10 prospects, and he's slipping 5 or so spots, which means he's now within 5 or so picks of your grasp (instead of the previous 10), then you should make the move, because it's much easier and less impactful on the future to do so.

How this applies to the Falcons is if they have a player ranked in the Top 15 prospects, and they have him in all their mock drafts definitely going in the Top 15-18 picks. But this player slips to say pick #22 or #23, but the guys in the warroom are thinking that anybody between #23 and #26 is definitely going to grab him, they should try to make the move to get him.

For hypothetical purposes, I'll use David Pollack as an example. Personally, I see Pollack going anywhere between pick #15 and #21. Even if his workouts are not so spectacular over the next 6 weeks, it's hard for me to imagine him slipping past Jacksonville at #21 just due to the sheer amount of teams looking for top DEs this year.

But let's say Pollack slips to #22 or #23...Now looking at certain trade value charts, it would seem that the difference between pick #27 and #22 or so is only about 100 points, which is roughly equivalent to a late 3rd/early 4th round pick. The difference being if the Falcons wanted to move up 10 spots to get Pollack, it would probably have cost them a mid/late 2nd rounder. But anyway, if Pollack slips this far, do you think the Falcons should make the move up to get him, in essence leap-frogging teams like Denver, Green Bay, and the Jets, all of whom may be in the market for a top notch DE in Round 1? Although I wouldn't be too keen to trade away our 3rd round pick (which is probably what it would take), I think if we can get a high impact player, then its worth it. But considering we have two 5ths, which I think can be packaged together or with other picks to get back into the 3rd round or early 4th.

I think so.

What other players do people think are worth the Falcons trading up a few spots to get? Shaun Cody? Jammal Brown? Justin Miller? Carlos Rogers? Antrel Rolle? All of them are players I figure probably won't go in the Top 15 picks, but also have a decent chance at slipping some on boards to the point that they could be available at #22 or #23.

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