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 Post subject: Should we trade up?
PostPosted: Sat Feb 26, 2011 4:57 pm 
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Looking at the past two drafts, it seems the traditional trade value chart overvalues Top 15 picks and undervalues Bottom 15 picks in the 1st round.

So according to that chart, if the Falcons were to package their 1st (#27) and 2nd (#59) together, they should only be able to get up to pick #16. But probably in truth, for a willing trade partner, they could probably get as high as #11 or #12 potentially.

Personally, I see 3 prospects that if they aren't Top 10 picks are worth the Falcons going up to get in that #11-#15 range...

WR Julio Jones
RB Mark Ingram
DE Robert Quinn

It's still early in the process and we don't know where guys may fall yet.

I'd also think about jumping up 3-5 spots to get potentially a DE like Kerrigan, or one of the CBs: Brandon Harris or Aaron Williams.

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 Post subject: Re: Should we trade up?
PostPosted: Sat Feb 26, 2011 6:43 pm 
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Up until last year, trades went roughly by the "chart." However, last year, it seemed teams caught on, and it cost way less to trade up in the first round. The chart will be accurate again if a rookie scale comes online, but I think this year, we may be able to move up several spots with a 3rd.

I'd trade a 1st and 2nd for Jones or Quinn, even though I generally hate trading up. We're to the point that, though we could use several people, we truly need quality over quantity, and a playmaker is worth 3 solid starters/depth. (Sort of in the realm of would you trade Nicholas and Blalock for an impact player, or Anderson and Huston...when he was around...for an impact player. Two solid starters in the first example, and a 1st and 2nd in the second.) The key is, you have to be very certain in the player you're trading up for.

Where I really hope we trade is with the late rounders. I'd like to start trading the 7ths, 6ths, and 5ths for next year 5ths, 4ths, 3rds. We're in a position to start doing that now, and you can sacrifice some late picks this year for setting up some earlier ones in the future.


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 Post subject: Re: Should we trade up?
PostPosted: Sat Feb 26, 2011 9:36 pm 
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This is a year where having extra 6ths and 7ths can be an asset, since there is not going to be undrafted free agency without a new CBA, so a team looking to fill out its roster with late round talent that would normally go undrafted could swing deals to pick up a bunch of picks late in the draft.

Not saying the Falcons should do that since I don't think we are hurting for depth like we were 2-3 years ago, but it's something to think about...

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 Post subject: Re: Should we trade up?
PostPosted: Sat Feb 26, 2011 9:38 pm 
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I'd be all for trading up if a guy like Aldon Smith or Julio Jones falls past 15th or so. I think Aldon Smith is gonna be a great player.

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 Post subject: Re: Should we trade up?
PostPosted: Sun Feb 27, 2011 3:33 am 
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I'm not so keen on the idea,,,,, I keep thinking of Sam Baker! I feel if we trade up it will be to fill a specific need and not to get the best availible player. We have a bunch of old starters (Peterson, Gonzales, Abe, Mclure) and in my opinion poor canidates to replace them on the roster all ready. We need a more top round pics, not less. I'd be happier to see us trade out of the first for a second and a 3rd. Now that I look at this draft it doesn't seem as top heavy as others in recent memory... ie the gap between 15 and 27 talent wise won't be as large as normal.

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 Post subject: Re: Should we trade up?
PostPosted: Sun Feb 27, 2011 4:56 pm 
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We have Hawley, so center is secure for the future.

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