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Boom or bust?

Probably bust, but if he's well managed, he could be a boom.

Yeah, I was thinkin the same thing. I'm sure he'd be ok with the right coach, but 9 out of 10 times he's a 2nd or 3rd stringer.

He'll start and he'll win football games, much like VY and Vick did in their early days. The issue with Newton going forward is whether or not he'll show the commitment to being a passer that he'll be able to excel 5+ years from now.

Almost every 1st round QB is going to get at least 3 years in the league with the team that drafted them. And then most of the so-called busts will bounce around as journeyman and potential reclamation projects for another year or two. But then the true busts completely wash out (JaMarcus Russell? Cade McNown), others will stick around for a few more years as backups (David Carr, Rex Grossman), and occasionally some will be able to turn things around down the road (Jim Plunkett?, Vick?).

Vince Young is currently at that crossroads in his career, where he could easily go by the wayside and be a career backup the rest of his career (like Byron Leftwich), or he could go on to bigger and brighter things.

My guess is Newton will have his ups and downs early on, but at some point 3-5 years from now he'll be in that same situation as Young, where his team probably has begun to sour on him despite the fact that he's overall been a serviceable to good starter most weeks.

Ultimately I don't think he'll ever be a good enough passer to be a reliable championship-caliber QB.

Its not ever talent with these guys, its how badly do they want it, and how much are they willing to pour into it as a career. Sounds simple, but thats it really. Its just you've always been out athleting people, suddenly become rich and very popular with the ladies...none of that breeds work harder, it says you're made it. Me, I'm making sure the rest of my life is like that, not just a couple of years.

I don't think money has much to do with it. I think it's ego and pride.

As you said, they've spent their entire careers "out-athleting" guys and winning games with their legs. And then when they get to the NFL level, some coach is basically telling them you suck, that's not going to work here. And they have to completely break down and remake their games, and they aren't seeing the immediate results, and are just sitting their scratching their heads wondering "I'm doing it your way and we're losing, what's the point?" So they never really trust their coaches, and their coaches never really trust them.

The money certainly doesn't help, as getting paid $5,000 versus $5 million might work better to humble Newton or any other guy for that matter.

The money inflates the later two...vicious cycle.

Everyone has known Cam would do this since late October. I think your assessment of him is fair, Pudge. In fact, the vast majority of QBs drafted are "busts" by the five year definition. If Cam is not an example of out athlete-ing people I don't know who is. His mechanics at times are almost non-existent but he is so strong he can still throw. Will he be the next Big Ben/Josh Freeman or the next Jamarcus Russell?Vince Young? I think it goes without saying that he has "character issues" and where he lands will make all the difference. Auburn has been Spin Central all Fall so it is pretty hard to know much about him but fans and team mates here worship at his feet. The National Champ game and first half versus Bama showed that teams can scheme for and contain him. At least now when his father asks for $180K people will be happy to say, "Yes!"

So you say that Vince Young is a bust?? I wouldn't necessarily say a bust. He's actually pretty good if he can keep his head in the game.

I agree. It was sort of comparative, i.e., Josh is to Ben as Vince is to Jamarcus. Josh has not won 2 SBs but is good. Vince has not been banished to the outlands but he has been cut as a team decides to "cut its losses" with him. As Pudge mentions, these guys have a hard time holstering their pride and that has certainly been the case with Vince. The Auburn faithful and much of the media have swung from Cam's nuts for his on field exploits all fall. "Best player in college history" has been uttered more than once. Hard to put that out of your mind when a pro coach explains how you suck. I hope the best for him and Young too. I'm a big fan of the mobile/running QB going all the way back to Fran Tarkenton.

He's a bust for the Titans. When you use a Top 10 pick on a QB, you don't expect them to be gone by Year 5. Regardless of how well they played in those 5 years, if a team is giving up on a QB after 5 years, then he's technically a bust.

When you use that high a pick on a QB, you should be taking him with the assumption that this player is going to be our QB for the next 7-10 years, if not more. If you don't think that about the guy, then wait to the end of the 1st or 2nd round to draft him.

And this is the fatal flaw of drafting QBs. Teams have such a need at the position, they essentially take 2nd round talent at the top of the draft, and then are scratching their heads 3-5 years later when they are giving up on the likes of players like Rex Grossman, JaMarcus Russell, Matt Leinart, Vince Young, etc.

Now Vince Young has won a lot of football games (over 60% of his starts) and is a good, effective QB. But he's fatally flawed. He's at that crossroads in his career now, where he could go by the wayside or he could actually make enough improvements to his game where he can prove Jeff Fisher wrong about him.

True...and yet a guy like Jamaal Anderson or Deangelo get a different evaluation though the money may be the same and, frankly, they may produce more in terms of quantifiable stuff sooner than many QBs who may hold a clipboard a couple of years. Then, there are guys like Jason Campbell. Bust?

Anderson is a bust. But at the same time, with non-QBs, your value is measured much differently. Particularly with RBs, WRs, and D-linemen, you can contribute to a team significantly even if you're a backup/role player.

Campbell is a nice player that I like some things about his game. But as far as what he did for the Redskins and the position he plays, he probably should be considered a bust.

The problem is that when you draft a QB in the 1st round, the expectation is that he's going to be THE guy. You're going to build around him and he's going to be the rock of your offense and essentially your franchise for the next 7-10 years. And when guys fail to live up to that, then they are a bust. If you had taken that player with the 66th overall pick instead of the 23rd overall pick, then you wouldn't have those expectations on that player, and even if he had an identical career to Jason Campbell, he wouldn't be considered a bust.

But of course I'm using a very broad definition of bust, as in did the team get a return on their draft value. If we're using the more narrow definition of was the guy just a bad NFL player, then many of these guys that have been mentioned in this thread would not qualify.