A lot will depend on what guys like Pike and McCoy do from here on out. What hurt Brady Quinn in 2007 was the belief that there wasn't a lot that separated him from guys like Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Drew Stanton, and Trent Edwards, guys that teams knew they could get in the 2nd round.
So Quinn dropped on draft day, until the Browns traded back into the 1st to get him, just like the Packers did with Aaron Rodgers 2 years before.
I think if teams ultimately feel that there isn't a lot of difference between Clausen and those 2nd tier guys like Pike & Co., then he'll drop.
But if they do, then it's hard for me to see him not being a Top 15 pick. He could very easily fall out of the Top 10. It's interesting that most of the teams that have serious QB concerns also have serious LT concerns. Washington, Seattle, and Buffalo all need QBs, but also really need LTs. The Broncos, Jaguars, and 49ers are teams out of the Top 10 that I think would be interested in him. But the Jags won't take a QB unless they really fall in love with Clausen. The 49ers won't either for the same reason.
I think it's the Broncos that are the wild card here. Josh McDaniels isn't committed to Kyle Orton beyond this year, and Clausen knows his offense, and should be ready to start in 2011 if they were to take him. But the Broncos also have serious issues on their D-line, as well as WR if they manage to trade Brandon Marshall.
My personal opinion is that if the Broncos are smart, they keep Marshall. There's just no way they will be able to replace his value in their offense even with a rookie WR as talented as Dez Bryant (who now people are saying might be a Top 5 pick). Unless you can get a #1 for Marshall, you keep him. Without him in the lineup, the Broncos passing game will be non-existent this year since Eddie Royal, Brandon Stokley, Jabar Gaffney, and Daniel Graham are nothing more than 40 catch guys.
So right now, I feel like Clausen will go #11 to Denver. If they pass on him, then I think it might be hard for the Seahawks to pass him up at #14, but I'm sure if Spiller is still on the board there, then he'll be hard to pass up. And if they pass on him, then he'll free fall down the board.
But I'm sure somebody at the top of Round 2 will move up into Round 1 to take him in that 20-25 range that both Quinn, Rodgers, Campbell, and Flacco went.
"Vincere scis, Hannibal, victoria uti nescis" -- Maharbal, 216 B.C.E.