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 Post subject: My pre-Combine Mock Draft (1/11/06)
PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2006 12:04 am 
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I posted this in the Falcons forums, so I will just link it for you guys to look at and comment on. You will see that I have tried to address what we all felt were the biggest problems with our team this year with each of my picks. Feel free to comment or ask questions.

http://boards.atlantafalcons.com/index.php?showtopic=137337

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2006 12:31 am 
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It's a very interesting mock draft.

Colledge is an interesting pick for Round 1. I saw some of him as a sophomore, and I saw the makings of a top pass protector. Sadly, haven't seen where his development has led now, but he definitely has the athleticism and mobility to work in this scheme. But questions are is his strength good, his toughness to really excel? I'm not sure. But I definitely would not say no to taking him. But I think maybe we can find a better player in Round 1. Colledge IMO seems more like a solid 2nd round pick than a late 1st roudner.

Watkins, no problems there.

I don't like Edwards. He seems like a quitter, and I don't want this guy on this football team.

Watson, I doubt he'll fall that far, and if he does it's probably because he has a very question work ethic (weight issues). Which as the case of Shropshire and Lavalais tell us, that he probably won't contribute much as a rookie if he's out of shape. And being the size that Watson is, he's probably going to be out of shape more all the time.

Shockley, an interesting selection. But if it were me, unless a really good player dropped in the draft, I wouldn't be in the process of "developing" a backup to Vick to replace Schaub. I'd rather get a veteran that can slide in immediately. Using a draft pick on QBs to develop them, and then potentially trade them is a 50/50 strategy. Think about the Packers with their backups to Favre over the years. They've drafted these guys since Favre confirmed himself as their franchise QB:

1995 - Jay Barker
1996 - Kyle Wachholtz
1997 - Ronnie McAda
1998 - Matt Hasselbeck (1st rounder for him)
1999 - Aaron Brooks (3rd rounder? for him)
2002 - Craig Nall

So basically, the Packers wound up getting some sort of eventual value from their draft picks 33% of the time. IMO, that means it's more likely to not work out than will. Which means, in essence more likely the Falcons are "wasting" a draft pick on a player/position that they could get much more value at another position.

Riggs, Maxey, Ross, Reid not a problem with those picks.

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2006 12:55 am 
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Why do you say Edwards seems like a quitter? Haven't heard that before. The coaches benched him for not wearing his jacket on the gameday walk to the stadium & when he got back on the field he got 2 sacks and a forced fumble, so I don't really know.

Watson i could see us passing on, although it would be a mistake. We need a widebody to eat up blocks in a 4-3, that's how it has always been with the 4-3.

Yeah, nobody seems to like the Shockley pick.

Colledge could go to the Broncos in the 1st if we don't scoop him up. He is not my kind of LT, but he is a Gibbs type of player. Except Gibbs doesn't take linemen in day one...lol

Like I said, I will revise it after the all star games and the Combine so thanks for the input.

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2006 2:28 pm 
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I don't really have a problem with Shockley himself, just that unless a really good player dropped (like say a 1st day player was available in Round 5), then I wouldn't draft a QB, whether it's Shockley, Vince Young, or Charlie Whitehurst.

For both Edwards and Pollard, and I admit I haven't seen them play, but they opted to forgo their senior years at Purdue relatively early in the timeline. Most sophs/juniors are definitely considering going pro in October and November, but haven't made the final decision, because a lot of factors will steer them towards staying or going.

Both Ray Edwards and Bernard Pollard announced they were going pro within a week of the season ending, which tells me that they had made their decision weeks before.

Purdue had a disappointing year in 2005, no doubts there. Many expected them to challenge for the Big Ten title, but they wound up finishing below .500. But the team did have a few positives late in the year, finishing with wins in their final 3 games.

IMO, a player should have said we built something late in they ear, and now I want to carry that into next year, and not have my college career end on such a sour note.

Let's look at the guy that supplanted Edwards as the starter: Rob Ninkovich. Smaller, quick speed rusher. He was a senior this past year, and in one's mind, it would mean that Edwards wouldn't have to compete for his starting job in 2006, because the guy that took it from him is gone.

It's one thing when you're Ronnie Brown or Reggie Bush, and the person starting ahead of you is also considered an elite prospect. It's one thing if you are graded as like a 3rd round pick or something and you are on the bench behind someone that is also a 2nd/3rd/4th round prospect. But Ninkovich as it stands now is probably a 5th round pick or later. I wouldn't be at all surprised to hear over the next few months that teams are looking at him to be a LB on the next level, much like ex-Boilermakers Shaun Phillips, Rosey Colvin, and Akin Ayodele have become. But here we have a 1st/2nd round prospect being the backup to a 4th/5th round prospect.

Shouldn't that raise a few red flags? Shouldn't the fact that he "quit" on his college team raise some flags? A guy that is a great athlete, but really doesn't have outstanding on-field production. Comments from Joe Tiller about Edwards turning pro:

Tom Kubat of the BoilerStation.com wrote:
Tiller was not surprised by Edwards' post-game announcement.

"I was somewhat surprised in the way it occurred," Tiller said. "Usually when a player is thinking about that, they walk into my office and we talk about it. We've had no discussions. Am I surprised by his decision? No. Will I encourage him to stay? No.

"I just think if that's what he wants to do, that Ray is a very strong guy, and if that's what's in his heart, then that's what he should do."


Instead, I'd much rather see the Falcons draft Ninkovich in the middle portion of the draft than see them eye Edwards. Ninkovich needs to add strength and bulk, but for the near future he could work as a situational pass rusher on 3rd downs. Then maybe a few years down the road, he'll be able to compete for a starting job. I'm not saying Ninkovich will solve our DE problems, as we still should try to address the position on Day 1, but I think he'll wind up helping this team more than Edwards.

Granted, I haven't seen either of them play. But just on paper, Edwards gives off a very high bust vibe.

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2006 3:11 pm 
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All DE's give a high bust vibe, but the fact is we need some big bodies on the line or our LB's are going to get swallowed up again next year. Whether Edwards or Watson works out is up in the air of course, but the facts are that both were considered first round talent going into the season. Then when their teams started losing they got benched & bad mouthed by their coaches. It's hard to say who is what, but there is no question that having these 2 up front would give us an impressive run D very quickly. The last thing we need is another glorified OLB at the DE spot that hurt us so much when Brady Smith got hurt.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Jan 13, 2006 12:44 am 
I just don't see us trading Schaub, and what you predict we would get for it, just would not be in the ball park for what McKay & Co would want.

I think that White would be long gone by 15, probably gone to Green Bay at 5.

If, and it is a Big if, we went OL I think we would go for McNeil of Auburn - not a traditional Zone blocker in size, but is athletic for someone that size of North Dakota. I do not think we are going OL, but that is who I think they would take IF they went OL. WE may not take any OLine in this draft - the thinking may be to build around mid to low level FA.

I can see us getting a QB to develop as the Number 3 - if they are not thinking that Randall is not up to snuff, but I think this will be a heavy DB laden draft.

W


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 13, 2006 12:53 am 
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Anonymous wrote:
I just don't see us trading Schaub, and what you predict we would get for it, just would not be in the ball park for what McKay & Co would want.

I think that White would be long gone by 15, probably gone to Green Bay at 5.

If, and it is a Big if, we went OL I think we would go for McNeil of Auburn - not a traditional Zone blocker in size, but is athletic for someone that size of North Dakota. I do not think we are going OL, but that is who I think they would take IF they went OL. WE may not take any OLine in this draft - the thinking may be to build around mid to low level FA.

I can see us getting a QB to develop as the Number 3 - if they are not thinking that Randall is not up to snuff, but I think this will be a heavy DB laden draft.

W


Sorry did not know I was not logged in.


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 13, 2006 3:38 am 
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Anonymous wrote:
I just don't see us trading Schaub, and what you predict we would get for it, just would not be in the ball park for what McKay & Co would want.

I think that White would be long gone by 15, probably gone to Green Bay at 5.

If, and it is a Big if, we went OL I think we would go for McNeil of Auburn - not a traditional Zone blocker in size, but is athletic for someone that size of North Dakota. I do not think we are going OL, but that is who I think they would take IF they went OL. WE may not take any OLine in this draft - the thinking may be to build around mid to low level FA.

I can see us getting a QB to develop as the Number 3 - if they are not thinking that Randall is not up to snuff, but I think this will be a heavy DB laden draft.

W


White'a value has been blown out of proportion by the Rose Bowl by everyone in the forums. He is a solid power back with good speed that could be great in a power blocking offense, like Larry Johnson, but he will not go before our pick most likely. It's not like he runs a 4.4 or something. Duckett was more talented coming out of college than White, and played behind a less talented line in college. Teams may get sucked in by White, but I highly doubt to the tune of a top 10 pick.

I really hope they do though because it would mean another top 10 guy might fall into our laps.

We would take Winston, Scott, or Justice before we took McNeil, and we probably wouldn't even take those as it would be smarter to get a top flight Guard & move Lehr to Center to solidify our interior as Cappy suggested elsewhere.

The Shockley pick is only if we trade Schaub and even then he might go to Detroit or Cleveland before we get a chance at him in the 3rd.

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 Post subject: Interesting picks!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 13, 2006 11:01 pm 
Incomparable sorry it took so long to make a response to your mock draft,been real busy lately.anyone wanted to get my 2 cents in about your draft.

1Colludge - he has alot of potential but i don't see him going in the first round.Solid skills,needs more strength but since this is a decent tackle draft I certainly don't see a 1st used on him,maybe end of 2nd.
2.Watkins - I like Pat Watkins,taller than most safeties although I hope if Watkins or whoever is taken can lay the wood on people.We really need 2 safeties but probably will only draft one. I wouldn't mind moving down in draft to get ko simpson.
3.Edwards - I have also read the reports pudge has about edwards maybe is lazy.If edwards has a good workout just maybe he will be a steal for someone.Personally I like Darryl Tapp better.
4.Watson - I have heard also that Watson isn't that strong of a def tackle and isn't worth a high pick.
5.Shockley - I only saw him play a few times but what I saw is a kid who isn't a pure passer.He can certainly run but to inconsistent for me as a QB.Like the idea of drafting a QB(the ron wolf theory)
6.Riggs - don't be surprised to see riggs drop in the draft.Running backs generally drop in the draft and I think riggs might be there in the 4th or 5th round.
7.Maxey - nice pick
8.Ross - we certainly need to replace mcclure and ross is a smart tactian but I was hoping for more of a physical center.
9.Reid - don't know much about him.


Sorry I can't agree with many of the picks.I like Watkins,edwards may be a steal or bust but to many players taken in rounds higher than they should.


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