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 Post subject: Draft Strategies: Trading down
PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2006 1:46 pm 
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I think logically speaking, trading down is a good strategy. But I think too many people advocate trading down for trading down's sake. And I think that is a poor strategy.

One of the reasons why the Chargers were successful in trading down from #1 to #5 in 2001 was that they had a player that they were still targetting at #5.

And I think that if you are looking for a specific player or players when you are looking to make a move down, then it's a very good option to use. But if you are just trading down to get more picks, you're setting yourself up to make a big mistake.

Let's take a hypothetical situation to illustrate my point:

Say a team is looking at 2 or 3 players to take with their draft pick. They are hoping 1 of them falls to where they are drafting, but they find out on draft day that it is not the case. Most people would say, "OK, now we should trade down because the players now available aren't that much better here than they would be 5-10 spots lower."

However, if you still don't have a few players you're targetting in your move down, you're going to set yourself up to make a major reach. If you move down 5 or so spots, and then find yourself in a similar position where you aren't really impressed with the players available, what do you do then? The option of trading down once more is highly highly unlikely. So you may find yourself reaching for a player at that moment, which is as I'm sure all can agree a very bad move.

Now looking at an actual example of what may happen this April. Let's first assume the Falcons are probably looking for a top pass rusher or DB in Round 1 this year. Other positions are possibilities (RB, OL, etc.), but long shots at this point.

If the #15 rolls around and the Falcons say to themselves, "We don't think any of the DEs/DBs available right now merit the #15 selection" as if the top DE/DBs on their draft board are ranked closer to a value of pick #20 or #25, then the option of trading down really opens itself up. But at the same time, the Falcons have to create a strategy of if the players they are targetting will still be available if they drop 5 or even 10 spots in the draft.

I could see it working. The Falcons dropping into the 20s, in hopes of getting a cornerback or safety like Tye Hill or LaRon Landry. There really aren't any DEs that would be available at that point that I could see the Falcons targetting. Basically after Kiwanuka/Williams/Hali, there is a pretty big dropoff in talent and the other possible 1st rounders are probably 2nd/3rd rounders that will rise up boards because of their pure athleticism or the fact that there is such a void ready to be filled. Recent examples of this "phenomenon" would be Calvin Pace (#18 in 2003), Bryan Thomas (#22 in 2002), Charles Grant (#25 in 2002), Erik Flowers (#26 in 2000), Jason Babin (#27 in 2004).

Obviously, it is not just a will to trade down, but you also must have a team willing to trade up in order to make that happen. It's still a bit too early to tell which teams may be in a position to want to jump up a few spots, because the Top 15 prospects in this draft is still solidifying (a lot will depend on which juniors come out). Hali, QB Jay Cutler, or a WR like Santonio Holmes are players that I could see teams moving up to get since the dropoff in talent after these players at their positions seems so noticeable.

Some real world strategies:

#19. San Diego might be looking to leapfrog Dallas (#18) or Miami (#16) to take a WR, particularly if the Eagles (#14) were to pass on a guy like Holmes.
#20 & #22 - Chiefs and Broncos are two more teams that have big needs for WRs that may look to leapfrog other teams looking at Holmes. KC might also jump over Miami looking at Cutler. Denver is a team that would probably love to have Hali since they are looking for a pass rusher this year. They are an intriguing option since they have the #22 and #30 picks.

But again, I think it's still way too early to start looking at trading down as our primary option this April. It's still too early to tell which prospects will be considered Top 15 talents in January. I mean this time last year, few would have expected to see Troy Williamson, Demarcus Ware, and Shawne Merriman all go in the Top 15 picks. At this point last year, it was a stretch to even think Williamson & Ware were 1st round picks. And that guys like Alex Barron, Erasmus James, and David Pollack would not Top 15 picks.

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 Post subject: Good stuff!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2006 9:36 pm 
If the players or players are not on the board come time when the falcon's draft it would be a good move to trade down.for example if Huff,Kiwi are gone there are not alot of players that thrill me.You could put alot of players in the 2nd category of elite prospects.Hali,Bing,Landry,Hill etc etc are players you could trade down and get more picks plus get one of them.That is a good strategy remember jimmy johnson used to do that alot with dallas and get all kinds of extra picks.

If we trade down I hope we get another 3rd rounder near the top 10 players since I would love to have ohio states center.This seems to be a good running back draft but if you have a good line you could put many 3rd 4th rounders back there and they would get a 1000 yards.Unless your real special pass on running back.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2006 10:39 pm 
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Unless we decide to try to trade up for Kiwi I would certainly try to trade down, even if Huff is available. He seems more of a tweener or corner than that hard-hitting intimadator.


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2006 11:09 pm 
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What about the possibility of trading Schaub for another 1st or using him and our 1st for a higher pick? Depending on who we'd be shooting for and who would be willing to do a deal like that, I think it might be a good strategy. Who's to say that we do end up with exactly what this team needs like Mario Williams or Jimmy Williams. Or we might be able to grab one of the better RBs and save some cash by letting Dunn go. We could go after Greg Blue in the 2nd round and get the hitter that we've been needing. Sign a FA SS to go with him. I think this is a time when this team needs to get aggressive and make something happen.


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2006 1:20 pm 
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I think if Huff and/or Kiwi are on the board at our pick we stay and draft one of those two. Otherwise trading down to the 19, 20, or 22nd pick is likely the best option.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2006 2:52 am 
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Huff IMO is a player that is probably only going to move down draft boards between now and April. He's a tweener, and you typically see tweeners slip rather than rise. But a lot is going to depend on his performance at the Senior Bowl and how fast a 40 he runs. If he nails both of those tests, he'll solidify himself as a Top 15 pick (he could move into the Top 10 if he really excels in both). if not, he'll likely see himself slide into the early 20s or even late 1st round. Ultimately, he's going to have to prove himself as a cornerback if he wants to stick high in the draft. Teams don't take "coverage" safeties that high.

Kiwi is a player that has the potential to move up, but also down. He has great athleticism and if he can confirm those notions at the Combine (or his campus workout since it's doubtful he'll work out in Indy), then he can solidify himself as a Top 10 pick.

Particularly at DE and CB so much stock in a prospect's stock is put in his numbers. How long as his arms? What's his vertical? 40 speed? Shuttle run? Etc. etc. And since those areas have yet to be determined, it's still a bit too early.

It's barely mid-January, so a lot of stuff is yet to be resolved. We'll definitely get a much more accurate picture after Senior Bowl week, which usually answers a lot of questions for scouts. Then by the time the Combine rolls around in late Feb., our picture will be more accurate.

A name to keep your eye on in terms of DE prospect for us is Kamerion Wimbley. He is the small fast DE that this team likes, we've seen a lot of him (based on our scouting of Chauncey Davis last year) and he has the sort of athletic potential to test exceptionally well in February. I could see him being this year's Demarcus Ware. He's already rated as a storng 2nd round prospect with 1st round potential. A lot depends on how much he weighs at the Combine, currently listed around 245-250 range.

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