6-2/217 Arizona State
Pros: Has a good arm, capable of making all the throws. Throws well downﬁeld and shows decent accuracy on the short throws. Has good footwork in the pocket, showing the ability to create space and slide around. Can extend plays with his legs, showing nice mobility and can pick up the extra yards if he tucks and runs. Does a good job keeping his eyes downﬁeld. Is tough, and takes a lot of punishment behind a bad line.
Cons: Has inconsistent zip, often due to questionable footwork as he often doesn't set his feet. WIll hold onto the ball, contributing to a lot of sacks. Doesn't consistently throw well on the run. Will make some poor decisions, throwing across his body and will force some passes looking for the big play. Will under throw guys at times on his deep throws. Has a bit of a side-arm release, which could be tweaked. He'll get happy feet at times due to constant pressure.
Overview: Many of his problems came from playing behind a bad offensive line. Was sacked 146 times during his collegiate career and at a comparable rate to what Ben Roethlisberger has gone through in recent years. Yet still managed to have a 81:35 TD-INT ratio, completed 61% of his passes and had a career record of 26-17.
NFL Forecast: If he can sit for a year or two, he's one of those players that I think could surprise. The type of guy that goes under the radar behind some big name quarterback who is inconsistent or underachieving, yet the team sticks with them for a year or two too long because of their price/draft status. And then when you ﬁnally plug in Carpenter, you're pleasantly surprised by how much better the team is with him than with the other guy. Is he a special player? No. But if you put talent around him, he can win. I think he'll always be a bit of a gambler, and will never be a toned down game manager. But if he can be tamed and toned down a bit, he could be a guy that is better more often than he's not. I would compare him to Jake Plummer, in that he's not the ideal franchise QB, but with good talent around him, he can lead your team pretty far.
ATL Forecast: Carpenter could work as a backup in Atlanta. A quarterback like Ryan could be a good inﬂuence on him. He deﬁnitely offers more long-term upside than either Redman or Shockley. He could come in and sit for a year or two as the No. 3, and then eventually take over the No. 2 in a couple of years. If given enough spot opportunities, he could excel in them, enough for the Falcons to potentially unload him for a middle round pick down the road. He could be the caliber of backup that plays Redman's style of game, but at a higher level.
Value: Carpenter is worth a mid-to-late round pick. For a team that is willing to sit him for at least two seasons and potentially develop him as an insurance policy starter down the road, I would take him in the ﬁfth round.
"Vincere scis, Hannibal, victoria uti nescis" -- Maharbal, 216 B.C.E.