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 Post subject: Vegas has the Saints +3
PostPosted: Thu Sep 04, 2014 1:33 pm 
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conventional wisdom is never to bet on a road favorite in a division game.....

and we always play them close.....

I hope I'm wrong, but I think we lose by seven in our home opener.

I think unless we can make Brees uncomfortable, that molefaced sonufabitch is going to have his way with our lack of pass rush.

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I predict we drop the first two games on our schedule, then go on a 2-3 game winning run (depending on whether we get 'good Eli' or 'bad Eli)

again, I really really hope Im wrong, and it's just last season leaving a sour taste.

flame away :ninja:

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 Post subject: Re: Vegas has the Saints +3
PostPosted: Thu Sep 04, 2014 4:06 pm 
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The Saints have owned us of late. No reason to expect anything different this time around. I just hope to see improved line play on both sides of the ball.


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 Post subject: Re: Vegas has the Saints +3
PostPosted: Fri Sep 05, 2014 4:32 pm 
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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/microsoft ... 28755.html


Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

Microsoft's Cortana, the Windows phone virtual assistant that correctly predicted 15 of 16 World Cup knockout stage games, is back for the NFL season.

The predictions come from a model by Bing Predicts that takes into account 2013 results, offensive and defensive stats, margin of victory, location, weather, and public sentiment (which is meant to help identify real-time factors such as injuries).

Since the model just picks a winner and doesn't predict a score against the spread, the hit rate should be well over 50%.

Cortana did well at the World Cup, and even picked Germany over Brazil in the semifinal when other statistical models had Brazil as the heavy favorite. So if you're the gambling sort, it might be wise to take these picks into account.

Here are the Bing Predicts odds for Week 1:
• Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks — Seahawks win (74.2% chance)
• New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons — Falcons win (61.4% chance)
• Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams — Rams win (67.4% chance)
• Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers — Steelers win (70.2% chance)
• Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Philadelphia Eagles — Eagles win (75.4% chance)
• Oakland Raiders at New York Jets — Jets win (62.9% chance)
• Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens — Ravens win (59.8% chance)
• Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears — Bears win (64.4% chance)
• Washington Redskins at Houston Texans — Texans win (51% chance)
• Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs — Chiefs win (64.4% chance)
• New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins — Patriots win (61.4% chance)
• Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Buccaneers win (56.6% chance)
• San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys — 49ers win (68.8% chance)
• Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos — Broncos win (77.8% chance)
• New York Giants at Detroit Lions — Lions win (61.4%% chance)
• San Diego Chargers at Arizona Cardinals — Cardinals win (58.2% chance)

Interestingly, Cortana picked the Vegas betting favorite in 15 of 16 Week 1 games. The only disparity is in the Saints-Falcons game. Vegas has New Orleans as a three-point favorite, while Cortana has Atlanta as a pretty big 61% favorite.

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 Post subject: Re: Vegas has the Saints +3
PostPosted: Sat Sep 06, 2014 6:57 am 
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It's hard not to knock the tough talk from the Atlanta Falcons
By Jeff Duncan, NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune
updated September 05, 2014 at 11:01 PM

If you watched HBO's "Hard Knocks" during the NFL preseason, you probably enjoyed a hearty laugh or two. I know I did.

In addition to irrepressible assistant coach Bryan Cox, the Falcons themselves were a downright comedic bunch. They had catchy nicknames for each other like "Big Balls," "Amsterdam" and "Cupcake." Receiver "Rowdy" Roddy White clowned just about everyone on the roster. And a couple of rookies even serenaded teammates in the hot tub with ukuleles.

The Falcons were even funny when they weren't trying to be. From the New Orleans Saints' point of view, the determined efforts of the Falcons' coaching staff to try to instill toughness into the charges must have had them slapping their knees and guffawing like jackals.

"I'm tired -- and you guys should be tired of it as well -- (of the) talking: 'The Falcons were soft, the Falcons aren't tough,'" Falcons coach Mike Smith said to his players during a team meeting in Episode 2. "Bull (bleep)! We are a physical football team. There are going to be physical confrontations. We want to be the biggest bunch of (jerks) in terms of making it hard for our opponent. All day long."

Smith obviously was doing his best to motivate his troops, who were coming off a highly disappointing 4-12 season. But his speech sounded hollow at best and hokey at worst. It came across as some kind of absurd cross between Hans and Franz ("We're here to tough -- Clap! -- you up!") and Stuart Smalley ("We're good enough, we're tough enough, and doggone it, people fear us!"

"If you have to tell somebody to be tough, they're not tough," cracked Bobby Hebert, who played quarterback for both the Saints and Falcons during his career.

Hebert knows a thing or two about toughness. The man once played in a game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after being concussed and having his front tooth knocked out.

"You can't coach toughness," Hebert said. "Toughness isn't fighting. It's being able to handle adversity, just being a nasty, physical player on the field. You can't turn that switch on or off."

The insinuation that the Falcons lack toughness clearly irks them. Smith bristled when he was asked about it in his weekly conference call with New Orleans-area reporters.

"I don't know that we decided we had to be tougher. I think that is what somebody in your job said," Smith said.

"I said we had to be physical, a more physical football team," he continued. "I've never said anything about being tougher. If you play in the NFL, you are tough. It doesn't matter if you are the kicker, the punter; if you play in the NFL you are tough. We've got to be more physical and we have to win the line of scrimmage because that is how you win in the National Football League."

The Saints' recent ownership of their archrivals has been well documented. They have beaten the Falcons 13 times in 16 matchups in the Sean Payton/Drew Brees era. They have won in blowouts and in overtime. They have won at the Georgia Dome and in the Superdome, in September and December.

And it's the way the Saints have won in their biannual series that sticks in the Falcons' craw.

When the game's been on the line, it's the Saints rather than the Falcons who have risen up. When the going has gotten tough, the Falcons haven't gotten going. Instead, they've folded like Pop-Tart boxes.

In 2011, the Falcons failed to gain a foot on a controversial fourth-and-inches attempt at their own 29-yard line in overtime. Three plays later, John Kasay booted the game-winning field goal in a 26-23 win.

A year later, the Falcons failed to gain a yard in three goal-line attempts from inside the Saints' 2-yard line in the final minutes of a heartbreaking 31-27 loss. Tellingly, the Falcons attempted passes on two of the downs. And all this against a Saints defense that allowed the most yards in NFL history.

Then last year, an almost identical scenario played out in the final minute of the regular season opener between the teams. The Falcons marched indefatigably to the Saints' 7-yard line but could not dent the end zone in four plays, including two tries from the 3. Again, they were forced to pass on all four downs.

No wonder Cameron Jordan derisively referred to the Falcons' 2013 offensive line as "speed bumps" earlier this offseason.

And safety Rafael Bush took the disrespect a step farther this week when he referred to the Dirty Birds as little brothers and vowed, "We're going to go in their house and we're going to spank them like they're our little brothers."

Such bravado is rare from the Saints. Payton believes devoutly in bulletin board material and lectures his troops religiously about not providing any to opponents. Consequently, the Saints were on their best behavior this week when publicly discussing the Falcons as kickoff of Sunday's season opener at the Georgia Dome approached.

But privately they were more skeptical.

They acknowledged the additions of offensive linemen Jake Matthews and John Asamoah and defensive linemen Tyson Jackson and Paul Soliai should make the Falcons more physical along both lines. And they were quick to praise Ryan's coolness under pressure and the schemes of defensive coordinator Mike Nolan.

But the "Get Tough" approach emanating from Atlanta only induced eye rolls. Clearly, they'll believe the Falcons are Hark Knockers when they see it -- on the football field and not just on the TV screen.

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 Post subject: Re: Vegas has the Saints +3
PostPosted: Sat Sep 06, 2014 12:05 pm 
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Quote:
"You can't coach toughness," Hebert said. "Toughness isn't fighting. It's being able to handle adversity,

Nailed it. "Toughness" isn't the Falcons problem. Responding to adversity is. And that's 99% on the coaches and their struggles to make adjustments.

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 Post subject: Re: Vegas has the Saints +3
PostPosted: Sat Sep 06, 2014 1:33 pm 
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NO, when you can't name a single "star" or "exceptional player" on your defense------that means your defense sucks.

If folks want to blame the coaches then ok, that's what usually happens !!

Who is going to be our new coach anyway? This is what makes a losing team interesting!!

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 Post subject: Re: Vegas has the Saints +3
PostPosted: Sat Sep 06, 2014 3:14 pm 
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Cyril wrote:
NO, when you can't name a single "star" or "exceptional player" on your defense------that means your defense sucks.

Yep, and if your D starts to give up points, then what are you going to do on offense? Are you going to try and put together a 15-play drive and keep them off the field, or are you going to be able to dial up a quick 6-play drive thanks for a 36-yard pass or run?

Either way is fine. But the real issue is that this offense should be able to do both. If they need to play ball control, they should be able to do that. If they need to get points in a hurry, they should be able to do that.

The problem is that this team seems only able of doing the ball control thing. And that limits the adversity that you can respond to. If our opponent goes up by 2 scores in the middle of the second quarter, the game is essentially over for the Falcons. It's why this team is 4-23 when they are down more than 3 points heading into the 4th quarter under Mike Smith. Smitty needs to take the leash off the offense and let them be whatever they need to be in order to win games. That's their problem. They have 1 way of winning, and if/when a team stops that, they are S.O.L. Good coaches adjust. Since Smitty cannot, what does that make him?

Again, you keep saying that the team isn't good enough and for whatever reason you give Smitty a pass for that. He's been here for 7 years, if this team isn't exactly the way he wants it to be, then what has he been doing for the past 6 years? If this was Smitty's 3rd or 4th year, I could still buy that this team's talent isn't up to snuff. But not in Year 7. That's a pretty lame excuse, concocted by someone who refuses to admit the flaws of Mike Smith.

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 Post subject: Re: Vegas has the Saints +3
PostPosted: Sun Sep 07, 2014 5:41 pm 
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Who dat????????????? a bunch of losers!!!!!!! We should pay Matt Bryant around $10 million a year. Great game by the Falcons, one we can really build off of and can really come in handy for the divisional playoff race :clap:

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 Post subject: Re: Vegas has the Saints +3
PostPosted: Mon Sep 08, 2014 9:37 am 
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I have never been more happy to be wrong :dance:

I have not seen the Dome rockin like that since the Seahawks playoff win. It was as loud.

The Marta ride home was particularly fun :mrgreen:

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 Post subject: Re: Vegas has the Saints +3
PostPosted: Mon Sep 08, 2014 2:00 pm 
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DaveWaz wrote:
Who dat????????????? a bunch of losers!!!!!!! We should pay Matt Bryant around $10 million a year. Great game by the Falcons, one we can really build off of and can really come in handy for the divisional playoff race :clap:



No, No, we should give Kroy or Douglas bigger contracts. :roll:

It is funny that they give all of this money away to JAGs and Bryant has been performing well since he has been with the team. Is there a way to give him some of Baker's money? :lol:


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