Stat of the Week...

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BirdBrain
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Stat of the Week...

Postby BirdBrain » Sat Jun 17, 2006 6:37 am

From Lenny P.................


In defending his often ordinary passing statistics, supporters of Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Vick typically point to his record as a starter, a glittering 31-19-1 mark in five seasons with the team. But just as the wondrously gifted Vick must enhance his passing numbers, he must also improve his record against winning teams. Vick has an impressive .800 winning mark, a 24-6 record against teams that either had a losing record or were at .500 when he played them. Against teams with a winning record, he is just 7-13-1, for a .357 success rate.

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SmorgasBorgnine
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so what

Postby SmorgasBorgnine » Sat Jun 17, 2006 8:57 am

I believe you will see similar splits with any active QB. I would venture that Peyton Manning and Donovan McNabb have similar if not worse records vs. winning teams. I would bet that the only QB with a relatively high number would be Tom Brady.
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Postby PB21 » Sat Jun 17, 2006 11:19 am

Yeah,...I've defended Vick from fans of other teams but it's hard to defend the guy from fellow Falcons fans,...such as yourself.

If this post won't get deleted,...I've been saying that this will be Vick's make or break season. I predict it will be the make part of the two. He has no more excuses,...he has two fine, fast as Hell WRs,...one of the best TEs in the NFL,...a PRETTY good O-line, I don't care what some idiots say and a great FB and a great RB.

It's all on his shoulders and hey,...if he doesn't perform?,...I'll be the first to roast his fanny.

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Postby Pudge » Sat Jun 17, 2006 7:20 pm

Although I don't expect Roddy or Jenks to be at their best this year, I agree with PB, that the excuses no longer exist at this point. The question becomes what is an acceptable level of success in 2006? Is it winning the Super Bowl. Taking the team back to the NFC Championship, or simply a wildcard berth.

IMO, this is just a playoff season. I think the Falcons can go further, but I'm not ready to put that expectation on them. I want to see them make the playoffs this year and then build on that in 2007, because that's the year for almost an entire year that I've been expecting this team to really shine.
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Postby ether3917 » Sat Jun 17, 2006 7:45 pm

seriously...has lenny "porkchop" p ever had anything worthwhile and true to say...

his articles are always so obviously biased, and useless that really there is no reason to read them.

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Postby Wease » Sat Jun 17, 2006 8:20 pm

ether3917 wrote:seriously...has lenny "porkchop" p ever had anything worthwhile and true to say...

his articles are always so obviously biased, and useless that really there is no reason to read them.


Those stats are hard to argue with there and seem both (somewhat) worthwhile and true (you can do the statistical analysis yourself if you doubt the numbers).

I do think QB "winning percentage" is an utterly meaningless statistic becasue football is a team game. Ad hominem attacks are hardly good refutation of statistics.

Methinks you mistake bias for things you don't like to hear....

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Postby SmorgasBorgnine » Mon Jun 19, 2006 11:33 am

Without posting other QBs comparable statistics, it is relatively meaningless. If someone has these stats available (I did look for them on NFL.com, ESPN.com, CBSsportsline.com, etc... and could not locate them.) The fact that Len posted only Vick's stats would indicate that there is not a huge difference, and he did not want to contradict his own article. I really do think you will find other QBs tend to feast on the poor teams and if they do win 2 or 3 games against winning teams, they are playoff-bound. I just doubt that any QB who has played a meaningful number of games will have a high winning percentage against the top teams.
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Postby dirtybirdnw » Mon Jun 19, 2006 1:54 pm

I admit I used to always talk about how bad Vick needs to improve his passing numbers for us to go all the way. That may infact may not be true at the end of the day. It seems that everytime Vick has a lights out day passing we lose! Point in fact:

Vick's Top 3 Passing games based on QB Rating
*I threw out the Minny game as he only had 8 attempts

#1: 20/30, 209 Yards, 2 TD's, 0 INT"s, 66.7% Comp, 108.9 QB Rating (Loss vs. GB)
#2: 16/26, 161 Yards, 2 TD's, 0 INT's, 61.5% Comp, 104.8 QB Rating (Loss @ TB)
#3: 22/31, 228 Yards, 1 TD"s, 0 INT's, 71% Comp, 102.6 QB Rating (Win @ MIA)

Vick's Top 3 Passing games based on Yardage

#1: 306 Yards in a Loss vs. TB
#2: 231 Yards in a Win vs. NO
#3: 228 Yards in a Win @ MIA

One other stat column for the day. Vick's record when his QB Rating is better than 80 is (again throwing out the Minny game which was a win) is 4-4. Vicks record when his QB rating is worse than 8 is 3-3.

What have we learned at the end of this lecture? Not much to be honest. The one stat that really made a huge difference was the amount of rushing yardage from Mr. Vick.

When Vick rushed for MORE than 50 yards the Falcons went 5-1. Infact the first half of the season Vick regularly ran for more than 50 yards and we had a 5-2 record. After week 8 Vick ran for more than 50 yards just twice and we had a record of 3-6. Out of all the statistical catergories I have looked at the only one that has a striking change in record is whether or not Vick runs for over 50 yards in a game. To expand this one out historically.....

05 Season: Falcons where 5-1 when Vick ran for 50+ Yards
04 Season: Falcons where 7-2 when Vick ran for 50+ Yards
03 Season: Falcons where 1-0 when Vick ran for 50+ Yards (played 4 games this year)
02 Season: Falcons where 5-2 when Vick ran for 50+ Yards
01 Season: Falcons where 0-4 when Vick ran for 50+ Yards (Rookie Year)

Grand total over Vick's career when he runs for 50+ Yards is 18-9.
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