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 Post subject: if the unthinkable happens....
PostPosted: Thu Oct 17, 2013 6:21 pm 
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and we lose at home to the 0-5 Buccs, what do you think should happen?

I would immediately trade TG back to the Chiefs, and I would bet we could probably get a 5th or even a 4th round pick.

I would also begin rotating in some of our backup QB's late in games ( whether were winning or not ) to save Ryan's health and see what they can do in real time.

If we lose to the Buccs, barring anything short of a Ryan injury, then Mike Smith is definitely on the hot seat. If we lose twice to the Buccs AND the Panthers, then Mike Smith should be fired at the end of this season, though. If we go 0-6 vs the Saints, Bucs and Panthers: that's a firing.

But I highly doubt this is going to happen. I bet we stomp the crap out of them Sunday..:snooty: :whistle:

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 Post subject: Re: if the unthinkable happens....
PostPosted: Thu Oct 17, 2013 8:06 pm 
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We lose to the Bucs, then trade Gonzalez to a contender.

Unless it hurts compensatory picks, trade any other players that are not long-term starters or underperformers that have any draft pick value like Asante Samuel (final year and allow Alford to get experience), Sam Baker (underperformer) and Thomas DeCoud (underperformer).

Time to build the lines, folks.

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 Post subject: Re: if the unthinkable happens....
PostPosted: Thu Oct 17, 2013 8:13 pm 
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I don't know who we'll beat or lose too; but one bad season out of six should not get anyone fired.

Think back to when Petrino walked out on us and think about us now. We have a very good still young Qb, Julio, and a defense that is young vs. old plus about a .700
record over 5 years. 5 winning season's.

I understand your mad over what you expected; but our core is strong and our lines are working to get better.

Do you really want to start over?? Or will you live with one losing season in six??
Dan Reeves lost most of his starting games without injury than won 7 out of 8 in 1997 then went to a Super Bowl in 1998.

Really I can't think of a winning team that fired a coach and watched them get immediately better?? Can you name any? Some bad teams like ours got turned around but good winning teams that start over usually don't find the right coach.

Blank can do what he wants but I'd have Thomas D. go before Mike Smith.
Smith has good coordinators and no players.

When Smith first took over we all had high hopes; why don't you think next season can be a very good one?? I also expect a win Sunday but this has been the first consistent winning the Falcons have ever had. What happens if a new coach comes in and we go 7-9? Or 6-10 ?? Fire him too??

Why don't we hope Blank gives Smith the chance to make this a rebuilding year and
turn things around next year?? I stated in another thread before Julio got hurt that Injuries bring other injuries; just because your playing players not use to playing 60 minutes of NFL football.

Were all five winning seasons a fluke?? We've gone through this year after year firing coaches; do you really think a new coach would bring new circumstances in this situation.??

May I please ask what you would have expected knowing Roddy, and everyone else that got hurt including Julio what would have been the outcome.?? Blank may fire everyone then you'll have a three year span where we probably wouldn't get much better.

Their's not much to talk about when your losing!! I don't enjoy this, but just on the past I know that starting over is usually not the right step. Think about Coach Smith? What can he do?? He's already showed us; give him ONE rebuilding year!!

You can make a lot of changes with draft picks and a new free agent. Please don't fire a proven winner? See how much more fun it is going to the playoffs even if you don't win a Super Bowl??

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 Post subject: Re: if the unthinkable happens....
PostPosted: Thu Oct 17, 2013 9:28 pm 
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None of that will happen, Fun: Blank is going to weather the storm, though some real changes will likely be put in place.

Right now, Tony G is a huge part of Ryan not being killed and ATL being competitive. Having him there to keep Ryan having some kind of a chance and having a mentor for Toilolo is much more important than having Larence Sidbury or Joe Hawley, ATL's recent 4th rounders.

The scouting needs to improve, the oline coach will be sacrificed again (my guess in my last post), and ATL might have to shop outside of their organization for some front office personal positions; people seem to forget how hard ATL has been hit in the front office the last few years. Also, whoever made the argument that Baker was worth $18 mil guaranteed (or however much) needs to reexamine their thinking.

The injuries are out of anyone's control (I don't know how Jeff Fish stops a Jones fracture, btw), so I think some of the D gets a pass, including Nolan, as they are sending so many rookies and backups out there that you really cannot say what's what. DeCoud's looked bad, Nich is clearly done, Babs is probably done, Asante goes . . . it's a bit of a new D next year, so why get rid of Nolan to possibly improve guys that you'll be replacing anyways?

Possibly the biggest benefit of next year is that ATL won't be in "win one for Tony!" mode, do we can focus more on developing talent than getting guys like Jackson and Osi.


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 Post subject: Re: if the unthinkable happens....
PostPosted: Thu Oct 17, 2013 10:01 pm 
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Us losing is far from unthinkable... :|

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 Post subject: Re: if the unthinkable happens....
PostPosted: Thu Oct 17, 2013 10:31 pm 
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If you think about it; its a huge game!!

Coming off a bye week we really need the victory!!

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 Post subject: Re: if the unthinkable happens....
PostPosted: Fri Oct 18, 2013 1:24 am 
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If the Falcons lose to the Bucs, it will be time to throw in the towel for this season.

But no one needs to be fired now or later, nor do the Falcons need to gut their roster. If they keep on losing then, they can release Tony Gonzalez in November and let him sign with a contender to get one last run.

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 Post subject: Re: if the unthinkable happens....
PostPosted: Fri Oct 18, 2013 2:18 am 
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You know, for as much as I don't think that Smith can get us to a superbowl, he's not the one to blame for this season. This season falls on Dimitroff.

Dimitroff's drafting has put the team in a very bad place. You know that I feel that the move for Julio was a bad move. The principal argument that it was a good move is that Dimitroff wouldn't have done better with the picks we gave up. Either way, Dimitroff isn't very good.

He also tends to draft injury prone players. (even knowing that they are injury prone) Julio Jones, Peria Jerry, Sam Baker, and William Moore were all high picks used on players who were injured the year that they were drafted, and who have continued to have injury problems since they've been in the NFL. Weatherspoon has been an injury waiting to happen... Ewing has been on IR for all but one game of his two year career. This is a significant trend.

Dimitroff completely missed on Ray Edwards. Giving a big contract to Dunta Robinson also wasn't the best move. Nor was giving a big contract to Sam Baker or Justin Blalock. (both of whom are average at best) Bringing in Jackson didn't seem like the brightest move considering the apathy towards improving the offensive line.

Generally speaking, Dimitroff has overpaid for average and OLD talent, and hasn't been able to acquire really good talent through the draft, outside of Ryan and Jones. Dimitroff might not be Blank's first target, but he is the biggest problem that we have at this point.


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 Post subject: Re: if the unthinkable happens....
PostPosted: Fri Oct 18, 2013 10:19 am 
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RobertAP wrote:
You know, for as much as I don't think that Smith can get us to a superbowl, he's not the one to blame for this season. This season falls on Dimitroff.

Dimitroff's drafting has put the team in a very bad place. You know that I feel that the move for Julio was a bad move. The principal argument that it was a good move is that Dimitroff wouldn't have done better with the picks we gave up. Either way, Dimitroff isn't very good.

He also tends to draft injury prone players. (even knowing that they are injury prone) Julio Jones, Peria Jerry, Sam Baker, and William Moore were all high picks used on players who were injured the year that they were drafted, and who have continued to have injury problems since they've been in the NFL. Weatherspoon has been an injury waiting to happen... Ewing has been on IR for all but one game of his two year career. This is a significant trend.

Dimitroff completely missed on Ray Edwards. Giving a big contract to Dunta Robinson also wasn't the best move. Nor was giving a big contract to Sam Baker or Justin Blalock. (both of whom are average at best) Bringing in Jackson didn't seem like the brightest move considering the apathy towards improving the offensive line.

Generally speaking, Dimitroff has overpaid for average and OLD talent, and hasn't been able to acquire really good talent through the draft, outside of Ryan and Jones. Dimitroff might not be Blank's first target, but he is the biggest problem that we have at this point.
I agree Rob! Dimitroff has had too many misses and lost opportunities. I think he has it in him if he steps back from the current trend and focuses on talent development. He's seen it done in New England, so he can get back to his roots instead of succumbing to the pressure to make splashes and win now. I didn't feel good about the adjustments this season, especially on the OL. He hasn't addressed the serious lack of pass rush, just maybe kept it the same. The biggest problem that we saw in the preseason is a serious lack of depth, which is key to weathering these types of years. Look at the Pats, they have no one for Brady to throw to, yet they are winning. They are doing it with good defense and depth. I would ok with trading Tony if it meant picking up some help defensively. I'd trade for Nicks if we could secure him for the future and get him for a reasonable price. Lastly, I think this game is a chance for Ryan to prove himself as an elite QB who doesn't need special talent to throw to, he just needs guys who can run a decent route and catch the ball. Like Brady and Brees, he has to show that he can put his team on his back and keep the offense moving regardless of who he's throwing to. If he can do that, maybe we can see more balance on this team in terms of talent on offense and defense.


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 Post subject: Re: if the unthinkable happens....
PostPosted: Fri Oct 18, 2013 11:14 am 
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RobertAP wrote:
You know, for as much as I don't think that Smith can get us to a superbowl, he's not the one to blame for this season. This season falls on Dimitroff.

Dimitroff's drafting has put the team in a very bad place. You know that I feel that the move for Julio was a bad move. The principal argument that it was a good move is that Dimitroff wouldn't have done better with the picks we gave up. Either way, Dimitroff isn't very good.

He also tends to draft injury prone players. (even knowing that they are injury prone) Julio Jones, Peria Jerry, Sam Baker, and William Moore were all high picks used on players who were injured the year that they were drafted, and who have continued to have injury problems since they've been in the NFL. Weatherspoon has been an injury waiting to happen... Ewing has been on IR for all but one game of his two year career. This is a significant trend.

Dimitroff completely missed on Ray Edwards. Giving a big contract to Dunta Robinson also wasn't the best move. Nor was giving a big contract to Sam Baker or Justin Blalock. (both of whom are average at best) Bringing in Jackson didn't seem like the brightest move considering the apathy towards improving the offensive line.

Generally speaking, Dimitroff has overpaid for average and OLD talent, and hasn't been able to acquire really good talent through the draft, outside of Ryan and Jones. Dimitroff might not be Blank's first target, but he is the biggest problem that we have at this point.

While I agree with the gist of your post, the part about injuries I have to disagree with. Moore isn't injury-prone because he was nicked up a couple of times in college. He's injury prone because he plays safety. Look at Malcolm Jenkins, who was as durable as they come at Ohio State, has missed 10 games over the past 4 seasons because he plays the safety position. Running Back and safety are the two positions that have the shortest shelf-life in the NFL and it's just the nature of the position. When a player like Lawyer Milloy emerges (only 6 missed games due to injury over a 15-year career), that's an anomaly, not the norm.

You can't really blame GMs for injuries. Now in the case of a player like Peria Jerry, it doesn't mean you don't draft him. It just means you don't draft him as high. When you have the specific injuries that Jerry had: all lower body injuries which suggest that he's carrying too much weight (see Byron Leftwich), it should have lowered his grade to an early-to-mid 2nd round pick at best rather than a late 1st.

Julio on the other hand was such an enormous talent that the nicks that he suffered throughout his career at Alabama were easy to overlook.

Baker was beat up at USC as well, but that wasn't the mistake. Again the mistake was taking 5 lackluster seasons and rewarded Baker with a market level deal that the Falcons couldn't get out of until Year 4 without greater consequences. Everyone understands why the Falcons opted to take Baker instead of a player that ultimately proved to be better in Duane Brown. Baker was deemed more NFL-ready. Again, the mistake was after 2010, the Falcons should have realized then that Baker was a poor fit in the blocking scheme (he was a zone-blocking guy at USC) and his inconsistent play merited the team looking in a new direction. Unfortunately because of the Jones trade in 2011, the Falcons didn't really have the opportunity to draft an insurance policy. But then after the 2011 season that Svitek had (essentially showing that Baker was expendable), the Falcons then drafted Lamar Holmes in 2012 as the insurance policy and Baker had his best year. Re-signing Baker wasn't the issue. You want to reward solid play and faith, but the team should have signed him to a much more team-friendly contract, otherwise they had his replacement in house with Holmes and could've easily re-sign Svitek, or signed a FA like Anthony Collins or King Dunlap to be the insurance policy behind Holmes.

It's the compounding of mistakes that TD has messed up on. Again, trading for Julio wasn't the mistake. It was drafting a bunch of at best complementary players with the remaining picks that was the mistake: Ewing, Mitchell, Dent, Holmes, etc.

The Falcons did not have strong drafts in 2009 and 2010, and thus needed to have stronger drafts in 2011 and 2012. Giving away those picks was a bad strategy in the sense that it lessened the chances that they could have those strong drafts because they basically dealt away half a draft class. But they still had the opportunity.

Imagine instead of Akeem Dent in Round 3, the Falcons had gotten Justin Houston, Jurrell Casey, or Cecil Shorts-type value with that pick. I'm not saying that they necessarily picked those players, but instead had picked some player that had returned similar value with that pick.

Or in Round 5, instead of Quizz, they got Denarius Moore, Julius Thomas, or Richard Sherman.

In 2012, instead of getting Ewing, Mitchell, Massaquoi, and Robertson in terms of value, what if we had gotten Alfred Morris, George Iloka, Danny Trevathan, and Billy Winn?

It's also interesting to look at the success that players such as Darrin Walls, Chris Owens, Brent Grimes, Vance Walker, John Abraham, Curtis Lofton, Harvey Dahl, and Eric Weems have had or are having since leaving Atlanta.

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 Post subject: Re: if the unthinkable happens....
PostPosted: Fri Oct 18, 2013 1:08 pm 
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It still needs to be said that Thomas D. WAS THE GM who got us 5 winning season's
and now this one. He's been a Gm for 6 years. 4 of those years playoffs.

As a franchise do you fire this guy?? I think give them one bad year out of 6. The previous years have been fun, this one not; yes I blame Thomas D. more than Smith,
but they seem to work well together. Lets let them use this year to see who we have; and next year to get into contention again!!

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 Post subject: Re: if the unthinkable happens....
PostPosted: Fri Oct 18, 2013 1:50 pm 
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Cyril wrote:
It still needs to be said that Thomas D. WAS THE GM who got us 5 winning season's
and now this one. He's been a Gm for 6 years. 4 of those years playoffs.

As a franchise do you fire this guy?? I think give them one bad year out of 6. The previous years have been fun, this one not; yes I blame Thomas D. more than Smith,
but they seem to work well together. Lets let them use this year to see who we have; and next year to get into contention again!!

I don't think that they work well together at all... Smith is a defensive coach, and our defense has been lackluster, if not pitiful for the past 6 years. Smith prefers a conservative offense, yet we gave up the better part of two drafts to acquire a home run hitting wide receiver. Smith wants to control the clock and put games away by keeping the ball away from the other team, but our offensive line is one of the weakest that I've ever seen.

I just don't buy that Smith and Dimitroff work well together. There's almost no evidence to support that claim, other than, "they've won 4 of the last 6." The Falcons have won by putting games in the hands of Matt Ryan. He has the most come from behind wins of any QB in the NFL while he has been in the league. That stat defines our team for the past 6 years. With just about any other QB in the NFL, this team has a considerably worse run over the past 6 years.

Dimitroff got the Ryan pick right. That's about it. Do we keep Dimitroff because he drafted the best QB in team history, but that's all? Or do we find someone that will put a team around Ryan?


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 Post subject: Re: if the unthinkable happens....
PostPosted: Fri Oct 18, 2013 4:30 pm 
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RobertAP wrote:
Cyril wrote:
It still needs to be said that Thomas D. WAS THE GM who got us 5 winning season's
and now this one. He's been a Gm for 6 years. 4 of those years playoffs.

As a franchise do you fire this guy?? I think give them one bad year out of 6. The previous years have been fun, this one not; yes I blame Thomas D. more than Smith,
but they seem to work well together. Lets let them use this year to see who we have; and next year to get into contention again!!

I don't think that they work well together at all... Smith is a defensive coach, and our defense has been lackluster, if not pitiful for the past 6 years. Smith prefers a conservative offense, yet we gave up the better part of two drafts to acquire a home run hitting wide receiver. Smith wants to control the clock and put games away by keeping the ball away from the other team, but our offensive line is one of the weakest that I've ever seen.

I just don't buy that Smith and Dimitroff work well together. There's almost no evidence to support that claim, other than, "they've won 4 of the last 6." The Falcons have won by putting games in the hands of Matt Ryan. He has the most come from behind wins of any QB in the NFL while he has been in the league. That stat defines our team for the past 6 years. With just about any other QB in the NFL, this team has a considerably worse run over the past 6 years.

Dimitroff got the Ryan pick right. That's about it. Do we keep Dimitroff because he drafted the best QB in team history, but that's all? Or do we find someone that will put a team around Ryan?

I don't buy the disconnect between Smith and TD. There was one in 2011, when it was clear the Falcons were putting all of their apples into the "explosive passing" basket, but had an offensive coordinator that had never successfully operated such a system. But that was immediately erased when they hired Dirk Koetter. To suggest that there is a disconnect between TD and Smitty now, to me is tenuous at best.

Just because Smitty is a defensive guy doesn't mean that he can't prefer a team that is offensive-oriented. Just look at Belichick's Patriots for the past 5 years and Dungy during his tenure in Indianapolis. You'd sort of have to be thick in the head in this day and age of the NFL to think that building a defensive-oriented team was going to be your path to salvation. The only way you can get it away with it is if you're on the Rex Ryan-level of "guru-ness" which Smitty is not.

The Falcons defense has been lackluster because they were trying to build a defense with middle round talent, which I've said before and will say again, would be the first I've ever heard of a good defense being built like that. All one has to do is look at the current Bengals defense, and you'll see a dozen players on that side of the ball that were at one point (either going into their final years of college or exiting their final years) a Top 40 talent. Even a team like teh Cardinals has that number of players. When you look at the Falcons, that number is just 4, maybe 6 at most.

I'll say it again, I don't believe Thomas Dimitroff deserves to be fired despite all my criticisms of him over the past two years. I believe he deserves the 2014 and 2015 offseasons to get this team back on track, so that in a future in 2015 and beyond this team could be a viable Super Bowl contender, which IMO they have not truly been the past 6 years.

I do think his 2013 draft was a step in the right direction because he picked up some athletes. He's talked a big game about "urgent athleticism" over the years, but I don't think has practiced what he preached, at least until this past April. Now he just has to build off that in 2014 and 2015, and I think he will have re-earned all the good will that I had for him back in 2009 and 2010.

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 Post subject: Re: if the unthinkable happens....
PostPosted: Sun Oct 20, 2013 6:38 am 
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Quote:
Dimitroff's drafting has put the team in a very bad place. You know that I feel that the move for Julio was a bad move. The principal argument that it was a good move is that Dimitroff wouldn't have done better with the picks we gave up. Either way, Dimitroff isn't very good.


More of your fan based Bs. Five straight winning season in the last 5 years shows he's very good. Find me 5 Gms that have 5 straight winning seasons?? Oh sorry you won't have time;
which is another way of saying "You don't know 5"

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 Post subject: Re: if the unthinkable happens....
PostPosted: Sun Oct 20, 2013 12:07 pm 
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Cyril wrote:
Quote:
Dimitroff's drafting has put the team in a very bad place. You know that I feel that the move for Julio was a bad move. The principal argument that it was a good move is that Dimitroff wouldn't have done better with the picks we gave up. Either way, Dimitroff isn't very good.


More of your fan based Bs. Five straight winning season in the last 5 years shows he's very good. Find me 5 Gms that have 5 straight winning seasons?? Oh sorry you won't have time;
which is another way of saying "You don't know 5"

Cyril, you don't evaluate drafting by how many games a team wins. Yes, it is a factor. But you have to actually evaluate the draft picks to really evaluate whether a GM/team is drafting well. Just look at the 49ers drafting from 2005-10 when they weren't winning, but all that talent they got in those years suddenly goes from middling to very good when they hire the right coach. This is the same sort of argument that says one QB > than the other because he wins more games.

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 Post subject: Re: if the unthinkable happens....
PostPosted: Sun Oct 20, 2013 10:23 pm 
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Do teams that consistently draft poorly have winning records?? I 'd say some are naming
The Falcons; but its really more than drafting. Its also keeping the right people; and letting go of the right ones; and the free agents!!

Yes the Matt Ryan pick, the Turner free agent and the Tony G. trade gives Thomas D. more time.

Then again Coach Smith may be three times the coach that others make him out to be (:

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 Post subject: Re: if the unthinkable happens....
PostPosted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 12:11 pm 
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If I've said the Falcons have drafted poorly, then that was my mistake. They are not poor drafters. They are probably above average when you look at the league as a whole.

But I do think they have not drafted well. Semantics, I know. But if I was giving a grade, I would say overall, TD's drafts have netted a C+, maybe a B- when you consider the level of roster retention they have.

I think the past few years have been very weak. In 2008, they had an A- or B+ draft. I think every year since they haven't done better than B- or C-level. TD has a reputation for being one of the premier talent evaluators and team builders in the league, yet outside Matt Ryan and the passing game and the play of the secondary, every other aspect of this team arguably has declined from 2008 to 2012.

I have very few complaints about TD's moves from 2008-10, and I think his successes in those years have really carried over in 2011 and 2012, more so than his moves in 2011 and 2012 led to the success of those respective seasons. But starting in 2011, I think TD has demonstrably worse in terms of personnel acquisition. The trade for Asante was a huge plus, but other than that none of his off-season FA/trade moves since trading for Tony Gonzalez have worked out. He completely whiffed on Tatupu, Edwards, Manuwai, and Reggie Kelly. Osi and S-Jax haven't exactly been home runs either.

While I've switched sides on the Julio trade because Julio fulfilled all the requirements I set forth back in 2012 (made the team special in January and developed into an elite receiver), if I had to do it over again, would I make the trade? No. Because I still disagree with the core principle of the trade: that 1 elite WR can make up for 4 solid players at other positions. And even if Julio has, he has done so by a hair.

I don't want to say that Dimitroff has done a poor job. Marty Hurney was poor in Carolina. It's a similar thing when people say the Falcons are poorly coached under Mike Smith. No, Carolina is truly a poorly coached team under Ron Rivera. To suggest that Smitty is in that same category is ludicrous. The same would apply to TD when compared to some of the truly bad GMs in the NFL. But in the case of TD, he's not doing a poor job, just barely adequate. And given that TD has the rep for being a guru and genius, that simply doesn't cut it.

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