Julio out for the season

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Re: Julio out for the season

Postby Pudge » Wed Oct 16, 2013 9:11 am

Cyril wrote:I love Ryan but he's not as good as you think. We're 1-4. P.Manning, D. Breeze,and or Tom Brady just wouldn't let that happen.

You mean the same Peyton Manning that led a Broncos team that started last year 2-3? Or the Drew Brees that has led a Saints team that has opened the season 0-4 twice (2007, 2012)?

This is what I was getting at with the previous post about Ryan lacking moxie. The "myth-making" we do we these other top QBs, assuming that because they're so good they never struggle or go through ups and downs is just wrong. We just assume a lot of things about these great QBs that aren't true.

backnblack wrote:
RobertAP wrote:Again, I didn't say that the Julio trade wasn't worth it because of THIS injury. I said that this injury should solidify the argument that the trade was a mistake. The most glaring reason for the trade being a mistake was that we traded 3 potential starters for one.

Which is a complete leap of faith. We know what we got with JJ and that was, pardon the cliche', to within ten yards of the SB. What we would have gotten on another path is unknowable and, therefore, impossible to argue for or against

I think in this case RobertAP is 100% correct though. Knowing what we know about TD's draft record, it's a fairly safe assumption that some of these players would be starters. We know we only target potential Year 1 starters in ROund 1, and generally speaking do the same in Round 2 (Alford was in fact the first 2nd round pick under TD that was not projected as a Day 1 starter after being drafted). And while the precedent for 4th round picks doesn't suggest they are automatically a starter, it's likely that whomever we would have taken in Round 4 in 2011 would have at least competed for a starting spot this past summer. As picks like Hawley, Sidbury, and now GOodman and Toilolo show that generally speaking the Falcons target developmental starters in those rounds. Hawley was being groomed to replace McClure at C, Sidbury potentially Abe or Anderson at DE, and Goodman and Toilolo will be counted on to be starters very likely in 2014 and beyond.

Now that doesn't necessarily mean that the Falcons wouldn't have drafted another Peria Jerry in Round 1 with the pick they used instead of Jones, and thus that player would have washed out as a starter. Although had the Falcons drafted Gabe Carimi as most sources suggest they were looking at, I do think he would still be a starter here in Atlanta. His selection would have likely led to the departure of Clabo in 2011, and potential retention of Dahl that year. Carimi would have started the year at RT, and my best guess suggests that he would still be starting at RT for us today.

As I've said in the past during my own criticisms of the Jones trade, if you don't think TD would have drafted 3 starters with those 4 picks given up, then that really is an indictment of the GM.
"Vincere scis, Hannibal, victoria uti nescis" -- Maharbal, 216 B.C.E.

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