Pudge, you should read some of the below, this guy KC Joyner would be right up your alley. I would imagine the book is an interesting read (esp from a fantasy football standpoint), and in general. I thought the olineman question was really interesting. I'd love to get his thoughts about our oline, and their pass blocking.
"Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, uses game film to track, tabulate and analyze nearly every measurable statistic in an NFL game. He is a regular Insider contributor and has his own website at thefootballscientist.com."
Bryan (DC): What is a more important stat for running backs, yards per carry or yards after contact? It seems YAC can give you a better idea of that players ability as yards per carry have a lot to do with the system.
KC Joyner: I have been doing some intense research in the field of running metrics. I broke down every run play from the past season and kept track of who the blockers and defenders were at the point of attack. I also tracked which point of attack blocks were successful and which failed.
All of this research (which will be posted both in Scientific Football 2006 and in future ESPN.com Insider articles) helped clarify the values of every offensive lineman. For example, I think Edge will have problems in Arizona because none of the Cardinals O linemen graded out well at all. Their yards per block average was low as was their block success percentage.
Billy (Michigan): KC is passer rating a big factor for a coach to choose the starting qb? Also can you help me with my math homework?
KC Joyner: It depends on the type of offense the coach wants to run. A West Coast offense will always want the highest percentage QB they can get, and that's what the passer rating measures.
A team that wants more of a vertical passing game (like the Raiders) knows they won't have the same passer rating numbers. A team like that should focus on the yards per attempt metrics, because that will give the proper weight to their vertical pass propensity.
Bryan (DC): Love all of your articles, but havent read your book. Does it layout a system for evaluating talent like moneyball, and can we dub it Joynermetrics?
KC Joyner: Scientific Football 2005 (last year's book) did lay out some of the metric specifics. Scientific Football 2006 (this year's book) will lay out the system in greater detail. I am developing metrics to measure every position on the field. TYPCA is the one I use for WRs. I also use yards per attempt to measure CBs and QBs. Offensive and defensive linemen will have a yards per attempt and blocking/defending success percentage for their metric, as will other blockers like TEs and FBs.
Scott (Tampa): KC, love your stuff! With your analysis, what do you find is or are the most important attribute(s) to look for when researching how good a team's running game will be? Thanks!
KC Joyner: Offensive line by far. A single bad offensive lineman can kill a team with missed blocks. Having a healthy O line might be the most important aspect of any offense.
Discuss your favorite team: the Atlanta Falcons. As well as all NFL and pro football-related topics, including fantasy football.
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