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 Post subject: Rookies
PostPosted: Tue May 30, 2006 8:01 pm 
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Just curious... have we signed any of them yet?


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PostPosted: Tue May 30, 2006 8:21 pm 
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The earliest in the McKay/Anderson era that we have gotten any of our draft picks signed is about 2 weeks prior to camp. Since training camp doesn't begin for us until July 24, don't expect any of the rookies to be signed until after July 4.

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PostPosted: Wed May 31, 2006 2:22 am 
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Oh I had thought we usually sign our late picks early... well on the same topic... what do you guys think we will pay JW... He thought he was going to go top 15 before the draft... we got him 22 picks after that.. I hope he is not greedy and realizes he isnt going to get as much as he probably wants.


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PostPosted: Wed May 31, 2006 8:35 am 
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JW will sign easily with no problems,...I hope. Remember the Falcons have a great owner now,...not a Tom Benson.


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PostPosted: Wed May 31, 2006 11:05 am 
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he'll get slotted like all the other guys around that time. We actually lucked out getting him in the 2nd because he should be easier to sign and we shouldn't have a Roddy situation where he holds out and hurts his season.

I forget who the 2nd rounder was last year that was holding out, but it is pretty rare for guys outside of the 1st round.

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PostPosted: Wed May 31, 2006 6:27 pm 
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I'm not sure who it was last year, but I recall Bob Sanders holding out his rookie year in 2004. IN fact, I don't think he signed until September with Indy, which was why he seemed like he came from out of nowhere this past year, because he barely played as a rookie.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2006 11:07 am 
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"we shouldn't have a Roddy situation where he holds out and hurts his season"

- You know just b/c of that situation, Roddy really could break out more than we might even hope for. He really never got much training camp in last year, and then he got banged up. During the season he spot played and never really got a rapport with Vick. I also think his grasp of the offense limited his # of plays and routes. Here's to a big jump from year 1 to 2.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2006 3:54 pm 
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I'm expecting a bigger jump from Jenkins as I have read that he and Vick seem to be on the same page. I do expect more big plays from Roddy this year and he should be able to at least keep the D honest with his ability to stretch the field.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2006 5:12 pm 
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John Engel wrote:
I'm expecting a bigger jump from Jenkins as I have read that he and Vick seem to be on the same page. I do expect more big plays from Roddy this year and he should be able to at least keep the D honest with his ability to stretch the field.


I agree. I am a big Jenkins fan because I really like his size/frame, and frankly the job he did on STs his rookie season convinced me he's willing to play this game the way its should be played ... tough, hard, and fast.

Roddy definitely has more "flash" than Jenkins, but I think they both will compliment each other well.


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 02, 2006 8:46 am 
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Well, well,...the roosters and I agree that White and Jenk will have breakout seasons. Thank you guys for agreeing. Some here at the Falcfans are skeptical,...at least that's what I got from them and now one agrees with the roosters. Oh yeah,...and be very, very afraid of Reggie Bush. It's the Caddy that should most be feared.


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 02, 2006 10:38 am 
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PB21 wrote:
Well, well,...the roosters and I agree that White and Jenk will have breakout seasons. Thank you guys for agreeing. Some here at the Falcfans are skeptical,...at least that's what I got from them and now one agrees with the roosters. Oh yeah,...and be very, very afraid of Reggie Bush. It's the Caddy that should most be feared.


Those 2 RBs worry me a bunch, especially after our woes on Run D last year. I'm hoping the addition of our 2 new hard hitting safeties, the return of Hartwell, and the continued improvement of our younger DL members will improve that run D.


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 02, 2006 2:07 pm 
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getting DMo back in on obvious passing downs will be a big improvement as he was having trouble shedding and making the play. That was a big part of the issues on Run D.

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PostPosted: Sat Jun 03, 2006 12:46 pm 
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John Engel wrote:
getting DMo back in on obvious passing downs will be a big improvement as he was having trouble shedding and making the play. That was a big part of the issues on Run D.


Incredibly accurate assessment,...thanks for remind me of that. DeMorrio was one of the best in his rookie class and that's why, as you said so well, he didn't have to play every down,...and at his size, when he did, we saw teams like the freaking Packers run through our defense.


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 04, 2006 2:48 pm 
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How do you define a breakout season for two guys that haven't caught more than 36 passes in a single year? That could be catching 50 passes, 700 yards and 5 TDs. Relatively pretty good production but nothing that's going to inspire fear into D-Coordinators around the league.

I don't doubt both Jenks and White are going to have "breakout" years, where my opinion differs is whether either are elite caliber WRs. I don't believe they are. Some do. Some think Roddy White in a year or two is going to be jockeying with the likes of Chad Johnson, Randy Moss, and Marvin Harrison for best receiver int he league. I personally think that's crazy, but you know, to each his own.

I don't think either of them have the potential to be elite receivers. First and foremost, I don't think either of them are that talented. The guys that I would consider potential elite receivers taken in '04 and '05 are guys like Larry Fitzgerald, Mike Williams, Roy Williams, and Braylon Edwards. Then you have "2nd tier" guys like Mark Clayton, Mike Clayton, and Lee Evans, that have the potential to be No. 1s in the NFL, but probably won't be considered the best of the best. Not to mention Rashaun Woods, Troy Williamson, and Reggie Williams, players that haven't quite panned out as hoped, but I still think they were better players coming out of college than either of Jenkins or White.

To me their maximum potential is to be a Keenan McCardell-type WR. A guy that is ideally the No. 2 target, but when he has to be the No. 1 guy, he is capable.

Secondly, you have to look at what kind of offense they play in and the supporting cast, to think that they'll never be considered elite receivers. I know stats don't mean everything, but it's hard for me to imagine anybody making the argument that someone is an elite receiver when they are catching only 60-65 passes a year.

We can basically estimate the range of passes that Jenkins and White will have thrown their way by looking at Vick's numbers from last year. First we must break down Vick's numbers based on how efffective the running game was:

Over 200 yards: 4.5 games*, 56 for 106 (52.8%) for 634 yards, 5 TDs, 6 INTs, 63.2 rtg
Under 120 yards: 4 games, 56 for 110 (50.9%) for 531 yards, 1 TD, 5 INTs, 48.7 rtg
121-199 yards: 6 games, 102 for 171 (59.6%) for 1247 yards, 9 TDs, 2 INTs, 94.8 rtg

* I'm counting the Vikings game as a half game

There's obviously a sweet spot where the running game isn't dominant but effective when we rush between 120 and 200 yards that Vick plays at his best. Let's assume that the offense produces at that level for 16 games. So that would mean 456 passing attempts for the year. We can basically assume in this offense, that is the MAX amount of passing attempts he'll throw in a given year.

Now, looking at how Vick spread the ball last year, you'll see that 49.9% of his pass attempts were thrown to either Roddy White, Jenkins, or Finneran. 26.5% were thrown to Crump, and the rest were spread out amongst the other players. Now, basically I see that as about par. 50% of his balls will go to the top 3 WRs, 25% to Crump, and 25% to the rest of the unit. I say this because Schaub's broke down similarly (51% to Top 3 WRs, 30% to Crump, and 19% to everyone else).

So of his 456 attempts now, Vick will throw 50% to our Top 3 guys, which amounts to 228 pass attempts.

Now last year, among those 3 guys, the pass attempts were about even. Finneran was thrown to 69 times, White 60, and Jenkins 58. Now let's assume that Finneran's are cut in half, so that he only sees about 1/6th of those passes. Now you have 83% of the 228 pass attempts getting split between White and Jenks, which equals about 190. So that's 95 each right. But frankly, most receivers will only catch 60% of the balls thrown their way. Last year, White caught 43% and Jenkins 51%. Last year, the 2 WRs who caught the most percentage of the passes thrown their way were Eric Parker (71%) and Darrell Jackson (69%). Even if you factor that in, that White & Jenks catch 70% of the balls thrown their way, it still totals to about 133 receptions between them. if they split that 50/50, as you know that's only 67 and 66 receptions on the year for them. Obviously, you could have one catching 80 passes and the other 53, but point is that we don't have an offense that is likely goign to allow 2 receivers to catch more than 70 passes.

Now obviously from 1998, we know that you can have 2 1000 yard receivers that only catch about 65 passes. Do I think Jenkins and White are capable of that sort of production? Yep. I think if we can get some steady offensive production over the next 3-4 years, each of those guys will probably produce at that level at least once. But I'm not expecting that to happen this year.

It's true that if Jenkins and White averaged the same yards per catch as they did in 2005 with 66 catches this year, they would be at 930 and 1015 yards, respectively. But again, i don't expect that to happen this year. I expect their YPCs will drop probably to around 11-13 range, because they will take more of the role from Crump of being the "possession" receivers in the offense.

And again, we must indicate that we're talking about Vick probably playing at his absolute best. I truthfully expect that Jenkins and White will instead combine for about 110 catches for about 1300-1400 yards and around 10 TDs. Good production, great when you consider what they did last year, but not what I'd call potential elite production that is goign to have me mentioning either of those two in the same breath as Randy Moss, Steve Smith, or whomever else you consider an elite wideout.

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 05, 2006 4:38 am 
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Good stuff Pudge, but the bottom line is our bread will be buttered on how well all of this translates in our division. And the teams in our division know how to beat us. Until we prove otherwise, the stats will continue to reflect poorly on the "leader" of the offense. I really believe our defense will step up this year and the division games will be won or lost in the turnover department. We will stop the run this year, we will get to the passer, we will tackle better, we will have better downfield coverage in critical situations. But will we pass better???? Will we catch better??Will the coaching staff mature??? Will we block better. To me it is all on the offense this year.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 05, 2006 11:50 am 
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"Last year, the 2 WRs who caught the most percentage of the passes thrown their way were Eric Parker (71%) and Darrell Jackson (69%)."

- I read this article last week, none of the numbers below match up with yours?? The best WR (% catch wise) was TJ Housh from Cincy, at only 3 dropped balls (2.6%) that were catchable.

As far as the point, I don't really know what the magic number would be. I guess to me it's more of a bottom line, like do we have enough balance to keep defenses honest. Like discussed here before, if Vick can find the balance, and the receiver continue to progress, then thats much more important than the numbers. I don't see any reason why the WR's wouldn't take a big step forward this year.

by KC Joyner

One of the things I most enjoy in researching football scientifically is debunking traditional football wisdom. How many times have you seen a sure-handed receiver drop a pass, only to have the announcer say something like, "That almost never happens. He'll catch that pass 99 times out of 100."

I always wondered if that was true. Do the best receivers catch 99 percent of the passes thrown their way?

As a result, I tracked the number of drops every qualifying receiver had during the 2005 season (minimum of 40 catches to qualify). I also divided the number of drops by the number of catchable passes to come up with a dropped pass percentage.

Here are the top 20 receivers in dropped pass percentage from the 2005 season:

Dropped Passes
Player Team Dropped passes Dropped pass %
Houshmandzadeh Cincinnati 3 2.6%
Marvin Harrison Indianapolis 4 3.2%
Bobby Engram Seattle 4 4.3%
Jason Witten Dallas 4 4.5%
Steve Smith Carolina 7 4.7%
Scottie Vines Detroit 3 4.8%
Tony Gonzalez Kanas City 6 4.9%
Eric Parker San Diego 4 4.9%
K. Johnson Dallas 6 5.1%
Joe Jurevicius Seattle 4 5.1%
Eric Moulds Buffalo 7 5.5%
Keenan McCardell San Diego 6 5.6%
Reggie Wayne Indianapolis 7 5.7%
Lee Evans Buffalo 5 5.9%
Jabar Gaffney Houston 5 6.3%
Larry Fitzgerald Arizona 10 6.4%
Chris Cooley Washington 6 6.5%
Marcus Pollard Detroit 5 6.7%
Deion Branch New England 8 6.7%
Jermaine Wiggins Minnesota 6 6.7%


If last season is any indication, the best receivers don't drop only one pass for every 99 they catch. The best ratio is more like one drop for every 40 catches.

It was no surprise to see Marvin Harrison near the top of this list, but I was somewhat surprised to see T.J. Houshmandzadeh rank No. 1 in this category. Houshmandzadeh is known as a very good possession receiver, but this chart shows he may be one of the best.

Steve Smith's reputation as a home run threat is well earned, but having dropped only seven passes in 150 catchable attempts shows his hands are certainly underrated.

I also found it interesting to see two Seattle receivers -- Joe Jurevicius and Bobby Engram -- in the top 20. Having two of the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL certainly was a big reason Seattle was finally able to become a championship contender in 2005.

Let's also examine how the worst receivers in the league did (also a minimum of 40 catches to qualify).

Dropped Passes-2
Player Team Dropped passes Dropped pass %
Ernest Wilford Jacksonville 13 19.1%
Justin McCareins NY Jets 16 16.7%
Reggie Brown Philadelphia 13 16.3%
Roy Williams Detroit 13 14.6%
Brian Finneran Atlanta 11 14.3%
Erron Kinney Tennessee 10 14.1%
Antonio Bryant Cleveland 16 13.9%
M. Muhammad Chicago 18 13.6%
Greg Lewis Philadelphia 13 12.9%
Eddie Kennison Kansas City 14 12.8%
Randy McMichael Miami 12 12.0%
L.J. Smith Philadelphia 12 11.8%
Alge Crumpler Atlanta 13 11.5%
Mark Clayton Baltimore 9 11.3%
Donte' Stallworth New Orleans 14 11.2%
Chris Chambers Miami 17 11.0%
Todd Heap Baltimore 11 10.4%
Terrell Owens Philadelphia 9 10.2%
Plaxico Burress NY Giants 17 10.2%
Ben Troupe Tennessee 8 10.1%


This chart shows that Ernest Wilford dropped nearly one out of every five passes thrown to him last year. Despite this abysmal drop percentage, Wilford still ranked fourth in the league in total yards per catch attempt. Most of Wilford's drops came on accurate passes, so he has a ton of upside for the upcoming season.

Two highly touted rookie receivers -- Reggie Brown and Mark Clayton -- also found their way on this list. While their drop percentages were fairly close, Clayton was actually much more sure-handed when considering the accuracy of the passes each receiver dropped.

The accuracy of a pass is a subjective measurement, but I use a set of rules to hopefully limit its subjective nature. The rule of thumb I use to grade the accuracy of a pass is whether the receiver is forced to reach behind or dive to make the catch.

I segment dropped passes into three categories. The first is an accurate dropped pass. The blame for dropping an accurate pass falls completely on the wide receiver. The second is an inaccurate dropped pass. These are passes that are thrown outside of the receiver's catching frame, but are still catchable. A receiver may not catch all of these passes but the best ones still catch most of them.

The third type of dropped pass is what I call stripped/drop passes. These are passes a receiver gets his hands on, but has the ball stripped away by the defender for an incompletion. Most scoring systems list these as passes defensed. However, since the receiver got his hands on the ball and had it stripped away, I figure it should be segmented away from the standard pass defensed (i.e., when a DB knocks the pass down before it gets to the receiver).

So how did Clayton and Brown fare in these categories? Four of Clayton's nine total drops came on accurate passes, while only three came on inaccurate passes and two on stripped passes. Meanwhile, nine of Brown's 13 drops came on accurate passes, while only four were due to inaccurate passes and none were due to stripped passes. The nine accurate pass drops tied Brown for fifth-worst in the league in that category last year.

Having a pair of good pass-catching hands is a natural talent, but as Raymond Berry proved years ago, it is also something that can be improved upon with practice. If these numbers are any indication, Reggie Brown has the most room for improvement of any second-year wide receiver.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 05, 2006 7:47 pm 
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I'm not talking about drops, I'm talking about % of catches per times a receiver is thrown at. We're talking about targets which is basically a stat determining who the intended receiver was on a throw. Whether the guy drops it, or it's a poor throw, or if the defender bats the pass away really doesn't matter.

PFW keeps stats of the league leaders in terms of % of receptions in terms of targets. This stat is not a true measure of reliability, but does indicate who are the more reliable receivers. And it's true that receivers that typically see only single coverage will tend to have higher percentages than someone who is drawing double teams.

PFW ranks the league leaders based on if you were thrown to at least 3.125 times per game. Here are the leaders per position (PFW lists the Top 20 per conference):

Running Backs

1. Edggerin James, Colts (88%)
2. Chris Perry, Bengals (82.3%)
3. Chester Taylor, Ravens (78.8%)
4. Steven Jackson, Rams (78.2%)
5. Tiki Barber, Giants (77.1%)
6. Marshall Faulk, Rams (75.9%)
7. Tony Fisher, Packers (73.8%)
8. Reuben Droughns, Browns (69.6%)
9. LaMont Jordan, Raiders (68.0%)
10. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers (66.2%)
11. Brian Westbrook, Eagles (63.5%)

Wide Receivers

1. Eric Parker, Chargers (71.3%)
2. Darrell Jackson, Seahawks (69.1%)
3. Bobby Engram, Seahawks (69.1%)
4. Steve Smith, Panthers (68.7%)
5. Reggie Wayne, Colts (68%)
6. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Bengals (67.8%)
7. Rod Smith, Broncos (67.5%)
8. Dante Hall, Chiefs (66.7%)
9. Troy Brown, Patriots (66.1%)
10. Ike Hilliard, Bucs (66.0%)
11. Joe Jurevicius, Seahawks (65.5%)
12. Santana Moss, Redskins (62.7%)
13. Torry Holt, Rams (62.6%)
14. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals (62.4%)
15. Shaun McDonald, Rams (62.2%)

Tight Ends

1. Erron Kinney, Tittans (76.4%)
2. Jermaine Wiggins, Vikings (75%)
3. Heath Miller, Steelers (75%)
4. Jason Witten, Cowboys (74.2%)
5. Steve Heiden, Browns (71.7%)
6. Dallas Clark, Colts (71.2%)
7. Chris Cooley, Redskins (68.9%)
8. Ben Troupe, Titans (68.8%)
9. Tony Gonzalez, Chiefs (67.2%)
10. Alex Smith, Bucs (67.2%)
11. Jerramy Stevens, Seahawks (66.2%)
12. Bo Scaife, Titans (66.1%)
13. Todd Heap, Ravens (65.8%)
14. Zach Hilton, Saints (62.5%)

This is not to say that Eric Parker has the best hands among receivers, but he proved to be somewhat one of the more reliable receivers last year. But it's no doubt that a QB's accuracy defnitely has something to play in this. Of the 10 teams that had the highest completion %, only New England did not have more than 1 player in this list. Of the 10 teams with the worst completion % (the Falcons being one of them), only 3 of those teams had a player on this list.

This is how the Falcons players ranked last year:

1. Fred McCrary - 3 targets (100% caught)
2. T.J. Duckett - 7 targets (85.7% caught)
3. Warrick Dunn - 37 (78.4%)
4. Justin Griffith - 34 (61.8%)
5. Brian Finneran - 81 (61.7%)
6. Dwayne Blakley - 7 (57.1%)
7. Alge Crumpler - 118 (55.1%)
8. Michael Jenkins - 71 (50.7%)
9. Roddy White - 68 (42.6%)
10. Jerome Pathon - 3 (33.3%)
11. Dez White - 10 (20%)

This obviously doesn't mean that Fred McCary and T.J. Duckett are the most sure-handed of our offensive players. In 2004, Crump caught 64.9% of the passes thrown his way, Finneran 69.7%, and Dez White 53.6%. Mr. Peerless only caught 43.7%. The team's overall accuracy did not change (54.8% to 54.9% in 2005). Duckett and George Layne were the best in '04, catching all the of the combined 4 passes thrown their way that season. Dunn was the next best, catching 74.3%.

We can use these types of stats to basically determine how many catches a receiver may have in a given year. For example, Keyshawn this year in Carolina. Keyshawn over the past three years is used to get the majority of passes thrown his way throughout his career. But Steve Smith has monopoloized the passing game over the past 3 years. It's why Muhsin Muhammad didn't have great production whenever Smith was in the lineup in that span. Using what we've seen from Muhammad/Smith pairing since then, Keyshawn is likely to see 20-30 less passes thrown his way this year than he's used to. Doesn't seem like a lot, but considering Keyshawn usually snags about 58% of his passes, you're talking about perhaps 15-20 less catches. Given he's basically caught about 70 or passes a year, that means he probably will only catch 50-55 passes this year. But Keyshawn's impact, despite not pulling down a bunch of passes this year, will be in how much more effective he is than Muhammad was in moving the chains, and also in the red zone.

Now I think some people are confusing the notions of value with ability. Roddy or Jenks's value to the Falcons is going to be immensely high. But in terms of ability are they going to be on the same level? No. Think back to 1998. Mathis and Martin's in terms of value were practically priceless to our offensive success that year. BUt were either of them elite receivers at that point in their careers? No. Mathis was a steadily productive guy for several years, but was he as good as a Herman Moore, Cris Carter, Irving Fryar, or Carl Pickens in that time? No. There was a time when Martin may have been considered in that group of players, but it was only short-term. In terms of value to this team, Roddy White and Michael Jenkins I suspect will be very high. But will they be able to take it to the level of Moss, Harrison, T.O., etc.? I mean we're talking about future H.O.F.ers. This doesn't even factor in pretty good receivers that probably aren't HOF material like Chris Chambers, Santana Moss, Eric Moulds, Joey Galloway, etc.

I want to know what I missed and that other people saw in Roddy last year that makes them think he has that sort of potential. Is he a guy that has the speed to beat any DB? Yes. Is he a guy that can potentially score any time he touches the ball? Is he the type of WRs that DBs and DCs will have to account for when he's on the field? Yes. Is he the type of guy that can go to 1 or more Pro Bowls in his career? Yes. Is he the type of guy that could be considered at the end of his career the best all-time Falcon receiver? Yes. I see all that potential in him, but not to be an elite player. IMO, an elite player is a guy that you can make the argument that he's the best player at his position in a given time period. Crumpler is an elite player. Vick is right there on the cusp. I think D-Hall is on the cusp. There may have been a year or two when Abraham and Milloy were there. Coleman is perhaps an elite player based on his play the past 2 years. Kerney, Dunn, and Brooking are excellent players, guys that will be in record books when their careers finish. But has there ever been a time where you really believed that one of these 3 guys was the best player at his position? And it may just be an issue of semantics when whomever said Roddy could be an elite receiver. They may have meant someone that was in the Top 15 or so at his position, which I would call a "top" player but not someone who is elite, not someone that I would say is in the Top 5 or so of his position. That single word: elite or top is like the difference between Tom Brady and Peyton Manning and Drew Brees and Marc Bulger.

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 Post subject: White
PostPosted: Mon Jun 05, 2006 9:15 pm 
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I will tell you this, Roddy (like any top reciever) has told Vick on many occasions to 'throw it up and I will get it'. I think he proved in the later part of the season that he can make that special kind of catch. With the way Vick throws the ball (crazy, wild, triple coverage bombs like the Pro Bowl) we will need a guy with White's skills downfield.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 06, 2006 3:59 am 
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Pudge said, "Vick is on the cusp of being an elite player"........lol...good one...that made my morning over here... :lol:


Last edited by BirdBrain on Tue Jun 06, 2006 4:45 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Vick
PostPosted: Tue Jun 06, 2006 4:35 am 
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Agreed, 'Elite' and Vick shouldn't really be used in the same sentence, even if you put cusp in there someplace. Vick is on the 'cusp' because he can't throw with any accuracy, so saying he is on the 'cusp of being an elite player' is like saying a guy who runs at olympic sprinting speeds but doesn't have the balance to stand up for more than 20' is an easy shoe in for a gold medal.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 06, 2006 11:11 am 
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there is no question that some of the guys catching the balls are gonna have poor numbers because of Vick's (in)accuracy.

Crump is acknowledged as having great hands around the league. But 55%? C'mon! Yes, some WR's can elevate the % for a QB (like TO did for McNabb to finally put him over 60%), but I don't see that happening with Vick.

I think the biggest contribution our WR's will have this year is the coaching staff trusting them more which will lead to more attempts downfield. They have to realize that the pure WCO of running patterns 8-15 yards downfield does not suit Vick's skill set. He has great feet and a strong arm, neither of which are helped by having 8-9 guys in the box.

Roddy should be a great help if for no other reason than keeping the safeties on their heels as they have to respect their over the top duties. It may also open more room for Crump to operate in the middle. With Jenkins, I hope that he and Vick have worked on timing so that Vick throws to a spot and doesn't wait until the WR gets open. He has been fortunate to have such a strong arm, but that won't always work in the NFL as those gaps close fast.

So will Vick's accuracy necessarily improve? Maybe, maybe not. But I do expect the offense to create more big plays and operate a lot more efficiently. We're gonna have to since our K situation still blows.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 06, 2006 2:04 pm 
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I wasn't saying I think Vick will be an elite passer, just an elite QB. If he develops into a QB that puts up the sort of numbers I indicated earlier in this thread where his QB rating is above 90 or so, then you have to consider him an elite QB, because when you factor in the other things he does + the fact tha he's well beyond an above average passer (at that point), then he is arguably the best QB in the league. It's all about criteria. If you think a QB should be a top passer, then Vick will never be considered elite. But if you think a QB should be a guy capable of making plays and spearheading an offense, then VIck is right there on the cusp of being elite.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 06, 2006 5:07 pm 
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Pudge wrote:
How do you define a breakout season for two guys that haven't caught more than 36 passes in a single year? That could be catching 50 passes, 700 yards and 5 TDs. Relatively pretty good production but nothing that's going to inspire fear into D-Coordinators around the league.

I don't doubt both Jenks and White are going to have "breakout" years, where my opinion differs is whether either are elite caliber WRs. I don't believe they are. Some do. Some think Roddy White in a year or two is going to be jockeying with the likes of Chad Johnson, Randy Moss, and Marvin Harrison for best receiver int he league. I personally think that's crazy, but you know, to each his own.

I don't think either of them have the potential to be elite receivers. First and foremost, I don't think either of them are that talented. The guys that I would consider potential elite receivers taken in '04 and '05 are guys like Larry Fitzgerald, Mike Williams, Roy Williams, and Braylon Edwards. Then you have "2nd tier" guys like Mark Clayton, Mike Clayton, and Lee Evans, that have the potential to be No. 1s in the NFL, but probably won't be considered the best of the best. Not to mention Rashaun Woods, Troy Williamson, and Reggie Williams, players that haven't quite panned out as hoped, but I still think they were better players coming out of college than either of Jenkins or White.

To me their maximum potential is to be a Keenan McCardell-type WR. A guy that is ideally the No. 2 target, but when he has to be the No. 1 guy, he is capable.

Secondly, you have to look at what kind of offense they play in and the supporting cast, to think that they'll never be considered elite receivers. I know stats don't mean everything, but it's hard for me to imagine anybody making the argument that someone is an elite receiver when they are catching only 60-65 passes a year.

We can basically estimate the range of passes that Jenkins and White will have thrown their way by looking at Vick's numbers from last year. First we must break down Vick's numbers based on how efffective the running game was:

Over 200 yards: 4.5 games*, 56 for 106 (52.8%) for 634 yards, 5 TDs, 6 INTs, 63.2 rtg
Under 120 yards: 4 games, 56 for 110 (50.9%) for 531 yards, 1 TD, 5 INTs, 48.7 rtg
121-199 yards: 6 games, 102 for 171 (59.6%) for 1247 yards, 9 TDs, 2 INTs, 94.8 rtg

* I'm counting the Vikings game as a half game

There's obviously a sweet spot where the running game isn't dominant but effective when we rush between 120 and 200 yards that Vick plays at his best. Let's assume that the offense produces at that level for 16 games. So that would mean 456 passing attempts for the year. We can basically assume in this offense, that is the MAX amount of passing attempts he'll throw in a given year.

Now, looking at how Vick spread the ball last year, you'll see that 49.9% of his pass attempts were thrown to either Roddy White, Jenkins, or Finneran. 26.5% were thrown to Crump, and the rest were spread out amongst the other players. Now, basically I see that as about par. 50% of his balls will go to the top 3 WRs, 25% to Crump, and 25% to the rest of the unit. I say this because Schaub's broke down similarly (51% to Top 3 WRs, 30% to Crump, and 19% to everyone else).

So of his 456 attempts now, Vick will throw 50% to our Top 3 guys, which amounts to 228 pass attempts.

Now last year, among those 3 guys, the pass attempts were about even. Finneran was thrown to 69 times, White 60, and Jenkins 58. Now let's assume that Finneran's are cut in half, so that he only sees about 1/6th of those passes. Now you have 83% of the 228 pass attempts getting split between White and Jenks, which equals about 190. So that's 95 each right. But frankly, most receivers will only catch 60% of the balls thrown their way. Last year, White caught 43% and Jenkins 51%. Last year, the 2 WRs who caught the most percentage of the passes thrown their way were Eric Parker (71%) and Darrell Jackson (69%). Even if you factor that in, that White & Jenks catch 70% of the balls thrown their way, it still totals to about 133 receptions between them. if they split that 50/50, as you know that's only 67 and 66 receptions on the year for them. Obviously, you could have one catching 80 passes and the other 53, but point is that we don't have an offense that is likely goign to allow 2 receivers to catch more than 70 passes.

Now obviously from 1998, we know that you can have 2 1000 yard receivers that only catch about 65 passes. Do I think Jenkins and White are capable of that sort of production? Yep. I think if we can get some steady offensive production over the next 3-4 years, each of those guys will probably produce at that level at least once. But I'm not expecting that to happen this year.

It's true that if Jenkins and White averaged the same yards per catch as they did in 2005 with 66 catches this year, they would be at 930 and 1015 yards, respectively. But again, i don't expect that to happen this year. I expect their YPCs will drop probably to around 11-13 range, because they will take more of the role from Crump of being the "possession" receivers in the offense.

And again, we must indicate that we're talking about Vick probably playing at his absolute best. I truthfully expect that Jenkins and White will instead combine for about 110 catches for about 1300-1400 yards and around 10 TDs. Good production, great when you consider what they did last year, but not what I'd call potential elite production that is goign to have me mentioning either of those two in the same breath as Randy Moss, Steve Smith, or whomever else you consider an elite wideout.


Very good breakout, but I do want to make one comment about Finn's attempts dropping dramatically.

I do not believe that they will be dropping off that much, they will a little I believe, but not a dramatic drop, maybe from 69 down to about 60. Here is why.....

Finneran was all set to sign with Philly this offseason. They offered him a good contract, told him he would be their #2 WR, and he had faith in their QB. Atlanta came and offered him a contract equal to the one Philly gave him, and although Finn loves Atlanta and wanted to finish his career, the equal contract itself wasn't enough. He went in and had a heart-to-heart talk with Mr. McKay & Mr. Blank. They then sent for Mora to have him join the conversation, then eventually Bill Musgrave. Several things were discussed during that meeting, but in the end it boiled down to this:

1. Finneran felt that he wasn't in Mora's vision of the Falcons future & that Mora didn't really care if he stayed or left. He wasn't given as much work in practice & plays were not called for him as much as the season went on. This was resolved at this meeting and Mora assured him that even though White was going to be our #1 WR, Finn's role wasn't going to be diminished the way it seemed it was being at the end of last season.

2. Finneran said he wanted to play in a place where the QB knew the playbook AND would run the plays/audibles that were called. Although he likes playing with Vick & in no way was trying to say that Vick couldn't learn the playbook, he believed that there was too much "playground" going on out on the field. Musgrave allieved those concerns saying he was going to ensure Vick made every effort this offseason in regards to learning the offense. We've seen evidence of that already this offseason with Vick being at Flowery Branch much more and working with the WR's more already this offseason than he did all of last offseason.

If there was more to the reasons Finn almost left this year I don't know them. I was just told about Finn feeling squeezed out by the coaching staff at the WR spot & Vick reverting to the playground type play the last half of the season last year.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 06, 2006 11:25 pm 
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Very good thread,...It shows how reason and rationale can come up with any conclusion one wishes to with no basis in reality. First Pudge blasts Vick,...then says he's the best QB in the league. Who knows if it was said in jest, it was said.

Cannot wait for the battle with the Panthers,...clearly, a far superior team than are the Falcons. And then in just a few more weeks, the battle between Reggie Bush and the trembling chi-uah-uahs.


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