Week 12 Run For Your Lives It's the Muscle Hamster!!! Thread

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Re: Week 12 Run For Your Lives It's the Muscle Hamster!!! Th

Postby fun gus » Wed Nov 28, 2012 6:57 am

Pudge wrote:
fun gus wrote:
Pudge wrote:But going single back Rodgers/Snelling is probably only been successful 20% of the time, so they were kinda screwed either way.

I get it. They clearly failed with the 2 runs to Turner, losing 8 yards. But I'm not convinced giving it to somebody else in that situation nets dramatically better results. Maybe instead of -8 yards, we get -4 yards, or maybe we get +2 yards. Who knows? The odds are least in your favor if you don't give it to Turner, I agree.
:


Why 20% for Quizz? We gave him the ball to seal the Cards game, and he got it done, right? IMO, Quizz is becoming the new 'Snailing'. First, everyone says he 'lacks the _____ to be effective back'. Then, when he does get playing time, and performs well, that changes to 'well, he is not an everydown back'. Now we are to the point that even you, Pudge: only give the man a 20% chance to 'not lose yardage'.

I think a quick pitchout to JaQuizz and we dont need Bryant, or he gets an easier shot. 8-)
"what if there were no hypothetical situations?"

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Re: Week 12 Run For Your Lives It's the Muscle Hamster!!! Th

Postby Pudge » Wed Nov 28, 2012 4:53 pm

I wasn't given him a 20% chance of losing yardage, I was giving him a 20% chance of gaining significant yardage.

2 plays prior to the Turner handoff, on 2nd & 6 at the 2-minute warning, Quizz got 1 yard.

And it's not doubting Quizz, it's doubting the O-line. The O-line is the problem.

Quizz has 60 carries this year, and has been stuffed for negative yardage on 7 of them (11.7% of the time). Turner has 168 carries, and has been stuffed for negative yardage on 23 of them (13.7% of the time). If Quizz had 168 carries, that would mean that he would have been stuffed 19 times, essentially making him just 4 runs better.

Quizz hasn't gotten many reps in short-yardage, so in once sense you could say that he's unknown. He's only gotten 7 carries this year on plays where the Falcons had <3 yards to go for the 1st down/TD. OTOH, Turner has 23 carries in that situation. But Quizz has been stuffed 3 times (43%) and gotten a 1st down 3 times (43%). Turner has been stuffed 5 times (22%) and gotten 10 1st downs (43%).

It's funny, because I was essentially the first person on the "We need to get Michael Turner bandwagon" back last season. Over time, I was able to convince several others to join me. Unfortunately, the one person who needed to get on was Thomas Dimitroff, and he did not. Now fast forward 9 or so months, and it seems the majority of Falcon fans are on that bandwagon.

But the problem is most of the new bandwagoners think that Turner is the #1 problem. He's part of it. But the real crux of the problem is that the O-line is what is causing most of the problems.

So even if you give Quizz the ball more, you might get improvement, but it's not going to change the fact that the Falcons O-line still stinks and the running game is terrible. It's just going to be slightly less terrible.
"Vincere scis, Hannibal, victoria uti nescis" -- Maharbal, 216 B.C.E.

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Re: Week 12 Run For Your Lives It's the Muscle Hamster!!! Th

Postby fun gus » Fri Nov 30, 2012 9:32 am

Pudge wrote:I wasn't given him a 20% chance of losing yardage, I was giving him a 20% chance of gaining significant yardage.


But the problem is most of the new bandwagoners think that Turner is the #1 problem. He's part of it. But the real crux of the problem is that the O-line is what is causing most of the problems.

So even if you give Quizz the ball more, you might get improvement...



I guess Smitty must be a 'bandwagoner' then.. Cards game: sealed by Quizz. Saints game SEALED BY QUIZZ!

1st and 10 at ATL 19 Jz. Rodgers right end to ATL 23 for 4 yards (J.Greer; C.Lofton).
Timeout #2 by NO at 01:44.
2nd and 6 at ATL 23 M.Johnson reported in as eligible. Jz. Rodgers left tackle to ATL 31 for 8 yards (C.Jordan).
Timeout #3 by NO at 01:32.
1st and 10 at ATL 31 M.Ryan kneels to ATL 30 for -1 yards.
2nd and 11 at ATL 30 M.Ryan kneels to ATL 30 for no gain.
3rd and 11 at ATL 30 M.Ryan kneels to ATL 29 for -1 yards.
End of Game


now there is some cute stats! Quizz is the new 'Snailing' and just like him, will be serving up crow! :dance:
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Re: Week 12 Run For Your Lives It's the Muscle Hamster!!! Th

Postby Pudge » Fri Nov 30, 2012 10:22 pm

Sounds like you disagree with my statement that improvement won't be significant.

Sounds like you're saying that Quizz doing well on 2 out of 13 runs means a bunch.

Also sounds like you're suggesting that the running game is somehow fixed now that Quizz is toting the rock.

Against the Cardinals, Quizz averaged 3.2 yards per carry and had a success rate of 40%. Turner had a YPC of 3.1 and a success rate of 53%.

Against the Saints, Quizz averaged 5.4 YPC and had a success rate of 50%. Turner had a YPC of 7.0 and had a success rate of 67%.

So explain to me why those 2 runs by Quizz mean anything I said before was inaccurate. Again, what happened in those two games that suggest the issue is the guy carrying the ball and not the guys blocking for him?
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Re: Week 12 Run For Your Lives It's the Muscle Hamster!!! Th

Postby fun gus » Sat Dec 01, 2012 7:47 am

Pudge wrote:Sounds like you disagree with my statement that improvement won't be significant.

So explain to me why those 2 runs by Quizz mean anything I said before was inaccurate. Again, what happened in those two games that suggest the issue is the guy carrying the ball and not the guys blocking for him?


"They clearly failed with the 2 runs to Turner, losing 8 yards. But I'm not convinced giving it to somebody else in that situation nets dramatically better results. Maybe instead of -8 yards, we get -4 yards, or maybe we get +2 yards. Who knows?"

Cards game: give the ball to Quizz: Success! Game sealed.

Tampa game: only needs a few yards for the kicker. Turner:Fail! 8-9 yard loss.

Saints game. Quizz: Success! 12 yards and kneel.

why is that so confusing? First a pitch to Roddger off the RE for 4 yards. Then, a handoff through the LT for 8 yards. Seems to me Quizz can find the hole in the crappy OL. But Turner cannot. Not when the game is on the line, which is why they went with JaQuizz.

got it? :mrgreen:
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Re: Week 12 Run For Your Lives It's the Muscle Hamster!!! Th

Postby Pudge » Sat Dec 01, 2012 10:01 am

Ok, so you were saying what I thought you were saying. So that because Quizz made those 2 runs, that indicates some sort of special intangible that he possesses that Turner does not that allows him to finish games better.

Quizz is a "closer" and thus can overcome the deficiency of his front because he had 2 good runs out of 13. Of course that means we must dismiss the other 11 runs he had in those games, where he was successful on 4 of them. Or the 27 runs Turner had in those same games, where he 16 successful runs.

Of course Quizz's intangible quality wasn't obvious in those 11 other situations, and Turner's lack of that same intangible didn't really hurt him on his 27 carries.

For the record, I'll state that I'm not against Quizz being the "closer," nor against him getting more opportunities than Turner. But comparing and contrasting 4 runs over the past 3 games as meaningful and ignoring the other 60 carries between the two of them, sounds an awful lot like taking things out of context...
"Vincere scis, Hannibal, victoria uti nescis" -- Maharbal, 216 B.C.E.

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Re: Week 12 Run For Your Lives It's the Muscle Hamster!!! Th

Postby fun gus » Sat Dec 01, 2012 10:09 am

[quote="Pudge"]Ok, so you were saying what I thought you were saying. So that because Quizz made those 2 runs, that indicates some sort of special intangible that he possesses that Turner does not that allows him to finish games better.
[quote]


I think the proof is in the pudding. The pudding Turners been shoving doen his pie-hole.

All you need to know is in the last three games, when the game was on the line: twice went to Quizz to seal it and he did, and McTurner did not.

That's all the 'context' you need to know! :dance: :whistle:
"what if there were no hypothetical situations?"


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