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 Post subject: Matt Ryan, not too many "bad passes"
PostPosted: Tue Jul 31, 2012 10:58 am 

Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:31 pm
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Sorry, article is about Tom Brady, but it gives the "bad pass" breakdown in the article. Matt Ryan - top 10 in good passes

Tom Brady was among league's worst in 'bad passes' last season
Published: Tuesday, July 31, 2012, 1:26 AM Updated: Tuesday, July 31, 2012, 8:37 AM
Nick Underhill, By Nick Underhill,
tom-brady.jpegAPNew England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) delivers a pass during an NFL football training camp in Foxborough, Mass., Sunday, July 29, 2012.

For years we’ve been told that Tom Brady almost never wastes a throw.

There’s countless visual evidence to support that notion, and little reason to doubt it. Every week he carves up defenses with precision, masterfully picking his spots as if his opposition is operating in slow motion.

But numbers are numbers. Even if your eyes and mind don’t want to believe them, they exist, and I came across some that are willing to challenge what we’ve long accepted as fact.

It turns out that Brady makes a high percentage of bad passes.

I had trouble digesting it myself, so I suspect that many of you will as well. But it’s true. Brady completely missed his mark – short, long or wide – on more than 17 percent of his passes last season, according to numbers compiled by Stats, Inc.

Here’s a breakdown of how it all played out:

Overthrown passes: 36 of 611
Underthrown passes: 26
Wide passes: 45
Total bad passes: 107, or 17.5 percent
(It's worth noting here that Brady completed 65.6 percent of his passes for 5,235 yards and 39 touchdowns. Keep that in perspective while reading.)

Nine other passes not included in those figures were plays labeled as wide receiver-quarterback miscommunications. That figure seems really low, but at least a few blatantly obvious offenses were removed from the equation.

Here is how he stacks up against the top 31 passers from last season:

1. Drew Brees (61 bad passes/657 attempts) 9.3 percent
2. Tony Romo (68/522) 12.3 percent
3. Philip Rivers (74/582) 12.7 percent
4. Colt McCoy (61/463) 13.2 percent
5. Josh Freeman (74/551) 13.4 percent
6. Kyle Orton (34/252) 13.5 percent
7. Kevin Kolb (35/253) 13.8 percent
7. Eli Manning (81/589) 13.8 percent
9. Aaron Rodgers (70/502) 13.9 percent
10. Matt Ryan (80/566) 14.1 percent
11. Alex Smith (64/445) 14.4 percent
12. Matthew Stafford (97/663) 14.6 percent
12. Ben Roethlisberger (75/513) 14.6 percent
14. Matt Hasselbeck (76/518) 14.7 percent
14. Tarvaris Jackson (66/450) 14.7 percent
16. Andy Dalton (78/516) 15.1 percent
17. Mike Vick (65/423) 15.4 percent
18. Rex Grossman (72/458) 15.7 percent
19. Matt Moore (55/347) 15.9 percent
20. Matt Schaub (47/292) 16.1 percent
21. Tom Brady (107/611) 17.5 percent
21. Jay Cutler (55/314) 17.5 percent
22. Ryan Fitzpatrick (101/569) 17.8 percent
23. Mark Sanchez (97/543) 17.9 percent
23. Christian Ponder (52/291) 17.9 percent
25. Joe Flacco (100/542) 18.5 percent
26. Cam Newton (101/517) 19.5 percent
27. Sam Bradford (70/357) 19.6 percent
28. John Skelton (62/275) 22.5 percent
29. Blaine Gabbert (94/413) 22.8 percent
30. Tim Tebow (71/271) 26.2 percent
31. Carson Palmer (101/328) 30.8 percent

Unfortunately we don’t have the data necessary to place each of those passes in context, so it’s hard to determine what this all means, if anything at all. Did a receiver run the wrong route? Did he face pressure on any of these plays? How many of the passes were shots down the field? How did the numbers change from previous years?

As of right now we don’t have the answer to those questions (and we really wish we did because there are some weird things going on in that list), but looking at other statistics and trends, we can at least start to piece the puzzle together and come to a reasonable hypothesis as to why Brady is so uncharacteristically low on a passer list.

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 Post subject: Re: Matt Ryan, not too many "bad passes"
PostPosted: Tue Jul 31, 2012 2:51 pm 
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Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2006 5:30 pm
Posts: 2347
- Every time I read from that site, they've bumped up JJ's ff ranking. 4th seems obsurd, not talent wise, but I think thats too lofty.

The Falcons reportedly hope Matt Ryan will be "more aggressive with more spread principles in the offense" under new coordinator Dirk Koetter.
It's been obvious all offseason that Koetter intends to play to Ryan's strengths, mimicking the successful no-huddle looks of the NFL's highest-scoring offenses. Ryan has added 5-7 pounds of muscle and increased arm strength in an effort to finally join the ranks of the NFL's elite passers. We love his chances of a breakout season after seeing reports of Julio Jones "dominating" an experienced group of corners in practices.

ESPN's Pat Yasinskas calls Julio Jones the most impressive player he's seen in any training camp thus far this summer.
Yasinskas is ESPN's NFC South blogger. Per Yasinskas, Jones has been "lighting up" Falcons practices, and making "several spectacular plays" every day. The Falcons, of course, have one of the league's most talented and experienced cornerback trios. "I’m out here and stronger than ever," Jones said. "Everything has just been so much easier this time around." Added Matt Ryan, "I think he can be one of the very best in the league, for sure. His talent is off the charts." Jones is Rotoworld's No. 4 receiver.

Good is the Worst Enemy of Great

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 Post subject: Re: Matt Ryan, not too many "bad passes"
PostPosted: Tue Jul 31, 2012 5:08 pm 
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The stats on the throws are interesting. I've been tracking Ryan's poor throws the past three seasons, which translate to how many of his incompletions weren't the result of a drop, throwaway, or broken up by a defender. And you've seen a steady drop over the past three years.

In 2009, he had 77 poor throws, but with 451 attempts that was 17.1% of his throws, or he threw a poor throw once every 5.8 attempts.

In 2010, he had 75 poor throws, but with 571 attempts, that percentage dropped to 13.1%, or once every 7.6 attempts.

In 2011, he had 66 poor throws in 566 attempts, 11.7% or once every 8.6 attempts.

It's also interesting to note how many of his actual incompletions are essentially "his fault:"

2009 - 41.0% of incompletions were poor throws
2010 - 35.0%
2011 - 30.1%

My suspicion is that Ryan's poor throw numbers will drop below 11% this year, and might be as low as 10% if he shows similar growth as he has the past few years.

What does that mean? Potentially 10-15 more passes completed because of Ryan's improved decision making. Not to mention if you have guys like Roddy, Gonzo, etc. have "average" seasons as far as drops go (more in line with their numbers in 2009 and 2010), then you probably have 10-15 more passes completed as well. It's possible you see Ryan's completion percentage jump up to 65-67% this year if you assume he throws the same amount of passes as he did in 2011.

"Vincere scis, Hannibal, victoria uti nescis" -- Maharbal, 216 B.C.E.

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 Post subject: Re: Matt Ryan, not too many "bad passes"
PostPosted: Wed Aug 01, 2012 2:09 am 

Joined: Tue Jan 10, 2006 3:15 pm
Posts: 4495
If Koetter actually does what he says he's gonna do, Ryan's numbers should skyrocket this year. Screen passes alone should increase Ryan's completions by a couple per game. That Ryan has been able to hit his numbers for the past 3 years without the aid of a decent screen game is amazing to me.

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